This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).
The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.
Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.
Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.
Amy Remeikis has said that apparently Bishop’s office is preparing a statement.
Bill English – the less-than-one-year-PM
[BK
Amy Remeikis has said that apparently Bishop’s office is preparing a statement.]
The Australian Government congratulates NZ Labour on forming government and we look forward to maintaining our two nations’ strong historic ties.
Boerwar @ #1395 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 5:15 pm
I’ll bet Bondi is going to look a bit empty soon!
BK @ #1400 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 5:22 pm
A resignation, I hope!
Didnt Bill English previously lead NZ Nats to an election defeat?
Bishop will do an arselicking statement probably with no mention of Barnyard.
Check out @FinancialReview’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/920896042106732544?s=09
David towe6 latest
Not sure where this is from exactly, but …
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
2m
#Galaxy Poll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 26 LIB 31 SAB 30 #saparli #auspol
William
Is that the Bankers Association poll? The Guardian mentioned it this morning.
[Further congratulations from former Australian Labor prime minister Julia Gillard:
Julia Gillard
(@JuliaGillard)
Congrats to Jacinda Ardern and the NZ Labour team. After many nail-biting days, a great result! – JG
October 19, 2017]
No sign of movement from the Right of politics here.
WB
Saw that poll on Sky News earlier with PVO
Turns out that’s a private poll conducted for the Australian Bankers Association (by Galaxy), so it doesn’t get its own post. Also: “Senator Xenophon is ahead as preferred premier, with 41 per cent support, while Mr Weatherill and Mr Marshall have both slumped to just 21 per cent, about half the SA Best leader’s support.”
Paywalled, I assume:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nick-xenophon-preferred-sa-premier-as-election-nears-leaked-poll/news-story/c0ff02ecd15a438c25ac4999e2a39d96
I think I heard it was a poll done of behalf of the banking ‘body’ in SA – Galaxy mebbe?
Yeah bankers association with a capital W.
[William Bowe
Not sure where this is from exactly, but …
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
2m
#Galaxy Poll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 26 LIB 31 SAB 30 #saparli #auspol]
Kevin also commented on it late last night.
[mari
Check out @FinancialReview’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/920896042106732544?s=09
David towe6 latest]
I would have given him a torch and had a couple of burning crosses in the background. 🙁
From The Oz, by Michael Owen
‘…
The statewide poll of 806 voters last week shows the Liberals on a primary vote of 31 per cent. Senator Xenophon’s SA Best is running a close second at 30 per cent. Labor, which has been in power in South Australia since 2002, is trailing with a primary vote of just 26 per cent.
Senator Xenophon is ahead as preferred premier, with 41 per cent support, while Mr Weatherill and Mr Marshall have both slumped to just 21 per cent, about half the SA Best leader’s support.
The Liberals’ primary vote at the start of last year, according to a state Newspoll, was 38 per cent, well short of its 2014 election watermark of 44.8 per cent, while Labor’s primary vote at the time was stable at 36 per cent.
…’
Barney in Go Dau @ #1416 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 5:06 pm
Wow! That really hits hard.
Well done Jacinda Ardern! Aussie media would still be commenting on her dress colour.
If this was Australia, Oakeshot would still be talking
From The Oz, by Michael Owen
‘…
Two polls last week in Hartley, in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs, showed Senator Xenophon on track to win.
The Advertiser-Galaxy poll found the senator would win 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to depose sitting Liberal Vincent Tarzia.
It gave Senator Xenophon 35 per cent of the primary vote but he surged ahead on preferences.
A Seven News-ReachTEL poll had Senator Xenophon 50-50 with Mr Tarzia on a two-party-preferred basis. Senator Xenophon’s primary vote was 21.7 per cent.
Labor, which previously held the seat, saw its primary vote slump to less than 20 per cent in both polls.
…’
Good afternoon all,
Interesting outcome in NZ. It will be worthwhile looking at which ministeries labour has offered Peters in the negotiations and what level of relevance the greens will have re ministerial positions as well.
At least NZ is used to a minority government so labour hopefully should escape the frothing from their media that Gillard had to endure.
Cheers.
X is just Liberal lite
Doyley
Check out Crikey on The Australian Newspaper.
I think they had a “Holy War” against Gillard and Labor for supporting a carbon price.
With NZ The fun starts straight away with Julie Bishop. 🙂
Boris @ #1368 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 5:03 pm
Like what? I never saw any. The reports I saw were all along the lines she brought some excitement to the contest.
She is no Gillard.
The Business will have Paul Keating as one commentator in Crash anniversary special edition
Labor statement on NZ result.
[Labor has released its statement on New Zealand Labour’s ascension to office. Spell check error aside (and yes, I know I am not one to talk), the last line appears to be directed a little more domestically:
It’s with great pleasure that I congratulate the Prime Minister-elect of New Zealand, Jacinda Arden [sic] and her New Zealand Labour team.
Jacinda brought extraordinary energy to the Labour leadership and campaigned passionately for inclusive, progressive policies, founded on universal Labo(u)r values.
In electing their third woman to serve as Prime Minister, New Zealanders have again provided an inspiration for women and girls around the world.
More than a century after the first Anzacs fought and fell together, Australia and New Zealand’s friendship is stronger than ever.
My team and I look forward to building and strengthening the connection between our two nations – and I trust the Government shares this commitment]
from the Guardian blog.
daretotread @ #1375 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 5:07 pm
Sadam Hussein had a policy of ‘Arabising’ Kirkuk which involved forcing our Kurds and settling Arabs. That is what brought about the demographic change. A bit like Israel I suppose.
The Guardian is reporting that no one has been notified by the HC of a pending decision.
[bemused
…
Sadam Hussein had a policy of ‘Arabising’ Kirkuk which involved forcing our Kurds and settling Arabs. That is what brought about the demographic change. A bit like Israel I suppose.]
Also Tibet, Australia, NZ, the USA …
Meanwhile
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/19/coalition-appalled-at-nxt-decision-to-block-28bn-in-higher-education-cuts?CMP=soc_568
Here she is!!
Here we go Ardern about to speak
Penny Wong putting the pressure on Bishop.
[Penny Wong says it is ‘time for Julie Bishop to undo damage’ in her statement:
Labor congratulates Jacinda Ardern and the New Zealand Labour Party on successfully concluding negotiations to form the next New Zealand Government.
Labor also thanks outgoing Prime Minister Bill English for his contribution to the strong and warm ties between our two nations.
The Turnbull Government must now take immediate action to rebuild relations with the incoming New Zealand Government following the Foreign Minister’s attack on Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party.
In an attempt to divert attention from the citizenship crisis surrounding Barnaby Joyce, the Foreign Minister publicly declared she would not trust a future New Zealand Labour Government.
New Zealand is facing an election. Should there be a change of government, I would find it very hard to build trust with those involved in allegations designed to undermine the government of Australia.
Julie Bishop Doorstop, 16 August 2017
It is now incumbent on the Foreign Minister to undo the damage caused by her irresponsible remarks during the election campaign.
Australia enjoys extremely close relations with New Zealand and I look forward to meeting with the New Zealand Foreign Minister once the Ardern Labour Government is sworn in.]
from the Guardian blog.
“”She is no Gillard.””
Bemused your hatred of Julia Gillard is showing! AGAIN!, give it a rest!.
Bemused
Quite true
But if you look at the figures from 1957 (before Saddam) Kurkuk citywas only 33% Kurdish and the province 48% Kurdish. So it is was not just Saddam.
Found this on line
Assume it is a PhD thesis. I have not read it but it looks interesting.
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/9876087/BetShlimon_gsas.harvard_0084L_10533.pdf?sequence=1
Anyone seen hide or hair of Julie Bishop? : )
Where can I see Jacinda’s speech?
1934pc @ #1433 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 6:05 pm
Just stating an obvious fact.
Gillard was widely not liked and seemed to have a kind of negative charisma.
Jacinda Ardern appears to be quite charismatic and popular.
Do you disagree? Note, I am not saying it was deserved or anything, just describing what was there.
Seth
ABC News 24
Or if OS try TVNZ
Adern speaking
Seth: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11933639
Guytar
Thanks, just tuned in.
bemused,
Soon after taking the leadership Jacinda Arden was questioned by a number of media outlets regarding her ” plans ” with respect to having children and the questioning was defended on the grounds that the NZ public had a right to know.
It would be interesting to see how many questions on the same topic were directed at English and Key before him when they took over leadership of the Nationals.
Cheers.
Very negative report on NZ Labor from PM, focusing on market reaction FFS.
At the start of Gillard’s PMship, she was more popular than the man she replaced. You can’t judge someone’s success at the start of their career.
Doyley @ #1443 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 6:11 pm
And what happened?
She handled it with aplomb and it seemed to go away.
That is what a good politician is able to do.
zoomster @ #1445 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 6:13 pm
Then people had a closer look…
bemused
Right. So its way too earlier to decide that “Jacinda is no Gillard.”