The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.
The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.
UPDATE: Full report here.
Briefly
For crying out loud I am just parroting stuff that is in all the financial papers if you bother to look.
it is not the Ruble that matters but the yuan.
As you may be aware last year it was included in the basket of international reserve currencies I think I read starting at 10%.
China is now moving more rapidly to expand its exchanges with BRICS. Obviously it suits Russia as with sanctions and penalties for using the US SWIFT system they gain by selling their oil and gas in yuan not dollars.
Direct US default is of course very unlikely but massive printing of dollars to devalue the loans already made (effectively a partial default) is not only likely it is happening and has been since the “quantitative easing” in 2008.
I suggest you tell the Chinese about the folly of gold. It is not my idea, but one that the Chinese have come up with.
AR….the idea is scary but the chances are very low….they are in inverse proportion to the harm that would result
https://au.gwn7.yahoo.com/w2/news/a/-/local/37437569/wa-bishop-may-refuse-to-marry-all-couples/
Lately the anglicans are giving the muscular conservative catholics a run for their money!
Barney – Donaghue must feel a special desperation (if he has any integrity at all) because Malcolm has been dancing around saying that he had cast-iron advice from the S-G that his team would romp home in the High Court. I don’t believe for a moment that Donaghue gave that advice. But, if he didn’t, he should have told Malcolm to correct the record or he would resign.
Poroti, just watched your tram video. I had heard there was an occupation in those days called ‘sparrow starver’. At about .37 I saw one in action moving from left to right across the screen.
Briefly
I am no expert on the $US but I think you will find that the financial journalists do not agree with you. The Chinese economy is certainly strong enough and strengthening. Even the most conservative of economist accept that the Chinese economy will be larger than the US by 2030.
Russia’s economy is heavily influenced by the oil and gas prices but in contrast to the events of 1989 efforts to weaken the Russian economy via keeping the price of oil artificially low (via the Gulf states) has not worked as expected. This approach destroyed the Soviet Union, but when tried a second time in 2014 it just did not get the impact expected and Saudi eventually withdrew as it could not afford to keep its oil price so low.
The net result has been that Russia has weaned itself off many imports and effectively has no international debt. while this does not make their economy a power house it has increased its resilience.
Gold makes sense when you’re bartering on a relatively limited scale where what you’re offering doesn’t exceed the value of the gold you have access too because it’s relatively stable. Though I think that may be questionable in this day and age, anything that disabled the world’s financial system to the point that gold could be a major contender for currency is likely to destroy society to the point where gold being pretty is less valuable than iron, weaponry and renewable food resources like animals and seeds.
For a nation like China (and most large nations today) that effectively backs its currency with the productive capability of its populace gold just arbitrarily limits your ability to subdivide your assets.
I guess the argument is that as a backstop it inspires confidence from people less likely to trust China ?
Trump live on Twitter, going after Puerto Rico. Something about how they created a financial crisis for themselves and had crappy infrastructure even before the hurricane anyways.
Congress will decide how much to spend.
PeeBee
Thank you for your post. I had never heard of that before but yes they were “a thing” back then. The things you learn in The Bludger Lounge 🙂
.
“Known as sparrow starvers, blockboys cleaned horse dung from the streets. Usually with little formal education, they started working for the City of Sydney as young as 14. In their heyday they were equipped with uniforms, scoops on wheels with long handles and brooms, while recessed receptacles in the footpath held the manure they collected until it was taken to a depot and sold to the public as fertiliser.”
http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/learn/sydneys-history/people-and-places/streets/the-blockboys
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump 15m15 minutes ago
“Puerto Rico survived the Hurricanes, now a financial crisis looms largely of their own making.” says Sharyl Attkisson. A total lack of…..
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump 6m6 minutes ago
…accountability say the Governor. Electric and all infrastructure was disaster before hurricanes. Congress to decide how much to spend….
Elau
Yes the gold back up system is precisely to give traders more confidence in the yuan if they know that they can instantly convert risky yuan into gold. I read something that Russia and China each have $25 billion in gold reserves. Not sure if this is enough.
Obviously Venezuela has joined the plan to trade in yuan not $
Russia has also recently banned acceptance of $US at all sea ports. Must trade in Euro, Rubles or yuan
deleted
Those trams in the Melbourne video were cable trams (driven by attaching to an endless cable running below the street). Melbourne had a big cable tram network but the lines were gradually converted to electric operation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne_cable_tramway_system
briefly @ #1832 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 9:34 pm
All you have to do is remember back to the time when a couple of Americans thought they’d be smart and corner the Silver market. They ended up with egg on their faces and a lot of almost worthless Silver to their names. The rest of the world figured out a work-around. Left them high and dry.
If anyone thinks that the rest of the world won’t do the same to the Gold speculators, if they have to, then they have rocks in their head.
(No names, no pack drill).
Not sure if Melbourne had them but a few tram lines in Sydney ran effectively at cog railways. North Sydney to Millers Pt for instance
Poroti, they got the nickname as it deprived the sparrows of a good supply of oats that would normally be available through ‘trickle down economics’.
[antonbruckner11
Barney – Donaghue must feel a special desperation (if he has any integrity at all) because Malcolm has been dancing around saying that he had cast-iron advice from the S-G that his team would romp home in the High Court. I don’t believe for a moment that Donaghue gave that advice. But, if he didn’t, he should have told Malcolm to correct the record or he would resign.]
If what you say is true then Brandis got what he wanted in replacing Gleeson.
It will be interesting to hear their opinions if the decision goes against them.
Thats before they converted to electricity
Well he just reached his punchline:
What an asshole.
Forget about gold, this is where the action is. Note that in 2008, 1 bitcoin could be bought for $0.08, whilst in 2011 it had rocketed to $2.00. It cleared $1,000 in early 2017….
“Bitcoin was soaring Thursday, hitting a new all-time high above the $5,100 mark.
The cryptocurrency BTCUSD, +7.71% on Thursday recently was up by 6% at $5,144 after earlier touching an intraday high around $5,168, according to CoinDesk data.
Analysts were struggling to explain the rally.
Some attributed the jump to speculation that China will allow bitcoin trading to resume by licensing exchanges for cryptocurrencies, but initial reports about that possible move came last week. Beijing last month moved toward a broad clampdown on bitcoin trading, helping to put pressure on prices for virtual currencies.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-soars-to-a-new-all-time-high-above-5100-2017-10-12
Citizen, an old tram building in Gertrude St in Melbourne has a decoration over every window which looks like a length of cable. No doubt, this is a connection to the endless cable you describe.
How does PR even carry on in this situation when their national government has through them to the winds?
AR:
He only bothered with PR because it was brought to his attention that it’s a US territory. You could sense from his initial comments following the hurricane that he was gearing up to blow off relief because, you know, ‘we gotta prioritise Americans’. That all about-faced when he was set straight. Now it’s okay however. Asshole indeed.
Kayjay
re earlier enquiries regarding Greasemonkey. I use Firefox V57. but it seems that after I posted a test some minutes ago that I don’t need Greasemonkey anyhow. Thanks for your concern.
Essential poll – state level voting intention July -Sep 2017
See the full polling details for five states here (they don’t release for NT or TAS, samples too small)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Essential-Report_statevoting_Sep2017.pdf
Bitcoin seems problematic, because it’s backed by stardust, dreams, money spent on electricity in the past and bullshit. Like if there’s some crunch that requires Bitcoin to demonstrate independent value it’s going to collapse because there’s no authority that’s offering you guaranteed anything for Bitcoin, it’s basically the problem with soft liquidity in financial markets that are collapsing turned into an entire currency.
Donald Trump is not simply an asshole. He is a psycopath. Who else could abandon Puerto Ricans to the wolves? He puts Ted Bundy and Jeffrey Dahmer in the shade!
C@tmomma
Americans not giving a shit about Puerto Ricans is not a new phenomena.
poroti:
Americans not giving a shit about Puerto Ricans might not be a new phenomena, but you’d expect the POTUS to at least offer up some semblance of empathy instead of having to be dragged kicking and screaming to it.
Not for the first time people would be comparing and contrasting with a President Obama response, at the very least delivered through appropriate channels and not frickin twitter FFS.
Elaugaufein @ #1876 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 7:26 pm
The first time that bitcoin is linked to financing terrorism it becomes absolutely worthless. It is already the “currency” of choice for people who don’t want the authorities to know what they’re doing.
I bet this gets voted down:
54/46 in WA….formidable
“They say that all the gold that has ever been produced could fit into a Olympic size swimming pool.”
3.42 Olympic swimming pools:
http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/
C@t….I believe they were the Hunt brothers…ended badly. A rogue trader from Nomuta tried the same thing with copper too…invariably these things fail
Just imagine.
You’re out and about minding your own business and some fat old dude collapses nearby.
You being the kind-hearted person that you are immediately put your CPR skills into action and save this persons life.
THEN you find out that the person you saved was Mr. Donald Trump.
What then would be your response ❓
Cheers Jaeger….not a lot of metal
Elaugaufein @ #1876 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 10:26 pm
Plus you have to convert them into something to pay tax to the State that you are living in. Else the State comes and takes you real capital, and eventually, your liberty.
Distributed ledgers as a an accounting technology, on the other hand, are brilliant and will completely change some industries, for the better.
Jaeger @ #1883 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 10:57 pm
Yes, but they are *very* heavy swimming pools.
ABC –
“The first claim a young woman will make on Private health insurance will relate to mental health”.
Obviously something seriously wrong with this if that is the case.
briefly @ #1884 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 10:57 pm
Due to the fact that there are enough rational actors in the right places that will set things back on an even keel. Thankfully.
Talking about gold filling swimming pools:
Rip off merchants –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/accountants-fight-financial-planning-reforms-to-ban-commissions/9045080
America actually works hard to screw over Puerto Rico. Like the Jones Act which only allows Puerto Rico to employ American ships (a product of the Democrats and unions). You could argue this is a valid measure to increase employment of citizens, if it was applied universally but it’s not, it’d inflicted on Puerto Rico because it has no ability to resist in any sense.
[KayJay
Just imagine.]
Lots of mixed emotions. 🙂 🙁
BiGD
enny meanie miney moe …
DTT, briefly, your are discussing the Triffin dilemma.
Read this: https://dailyreckoning.com/the-triffin-dilemma/
The current state of affairs goes back to Nixon’s establishment of the petrodollar arrangements. From a systems perspective, the conversion of exported USD to liquid fuel for importation causes a considerable flow of US dollars to dissipate, as energy cannot be recovered as USD and recycled within the US without considerable losses to the real economy (i.e. financial flows are largely imaginary).
But, since the mid 2000s, the US began developing its own oil and gas energy resources. Thus, the destruction of USD through conversion to activity in the real economy has stopped, and the feedback has switched to amplifying asset and commodity prices, rather than sitting in an equilibrium. This is an effective route to devaluing the USD, which US policymakers want. But it is a process that may not have a fixed point – it could run away, it could be chaotic.
Steve Keen probably explains this a lot better.
I would use CPR to try and save Trump’s life. Though I would console myself with the fact that, if he did survive as a result of my efforts, there would more likely than not be another heart attack and I would hope that one would finish him off.
LU
Every man and his dog has a bit of $USD left over from trips o/s as well as those who have systematically stuffed $USD’s under their mattress.
If big numbers of them decided to redeem them into a local currency you’d expect that the US economy would suffer big time.
CTar1 @ #1897 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 11:40 pm
Yep. So the $14 trillion dollar question is, when do you expect everyone else to stop trusting the US to pay its bond holders?
It’s Keynes’ beauty contest.
I wonder what would happen if they voted for independence (there was such a vote I read)
It would make sense for Porto Rico to join with the Virgin Islands to either become a state of the USA or a separate nation
dtt:
Puerto Rico has voted to become a US State before, but the US won’t allow it, primarily because Republicans have almost never been in a position to not Veto it and it’s guaranteed to be an additional 2 Democratic Senators.
I can’t see it wishing for total independence, it simply doesn’t have the economic structure to do so (and that’s before the latest devastation) though I suppose Trump’s malfeasance could force the matter.