Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential’s latest produces an improved result for Malcolm Turnbull on personal approval – but not on voting intention.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.

The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,916 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1 @ #1645 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    On the centralised drivers licence I’d bet that individual coppers who are given access will not be given their own userIDs/passwords.

    So it will be a ‘free for all’ right from the start.

    I would have thought that you would have known that all plod access to databases is strictly monitored by a unit in Central Command/HQ and so a ‘free for all’ is highly unlikely.

  2. guytaur

    I realise that.

    I’m ‘an agnostic’ on this issue atm, but if we’re discussing it, let’s be clear about the difference between what happens now and what is proposed. A lot of the arguments against on this site seemed to be based on ignorance of the current situation.

    As my ‘be guided by what you know about individuals’ handy guide, Dan Andrews is about as left of centre for a Labor Premier as you’re ever going to get, so if he’s unperturbed by the proposal, I’d assume that it really isn’t that draconian.

    He also has a history of standing up to the feds, so it can’t be suggested he’s just rolled over because it’s convenient. It’s hard to see that going along with the proposal falls into any category other than ‘this is the right choice’ – there’s nothing in it for the States, they’re being asked to provide the Feds with something with no clear gain.

    In those circumstances, one assumes that the Premiers aren’t just rolling over, selling us down the river, whatever, but have good reasons for their compliance.

  3. ‘Or just delete it entirely and then yell “Freedom Wins!” as loud as you can.’

    Sorry, you’re seriously suggesting that each State should delete all their driver registration records?

  4. It’s actually possible to defend digital databases by air gapping depending on your purpose for the digitisation (it works if for example your desire is high speed search and correlation of lots of data on a local basis). This is generally superior to deliberate archaic storage.

    Also Freedom never wins. At best Freedom doesn’t lose today. The incidence of laws granting greater civil liberties are far far fewer than those restricting them. Generally if you’re concern is civil liberties at best you win until next time and you lose forever.

    Eg the effective mass surveillance fishing trip that is metadata retention will never be repealed (I dunno how else to describe what is effectively warrantless surveillance of everyone that the government promises not to look at without a warrant , as but as a gigantic fishing trip on everybody).

  6. Elaugaufein

    When I was growing up, books like ‘Catcher in the Rye’ were banned in Australia. Sometimes civil liberties do advance.

  7. C@

    all plod access to databases is strictly monitored

    Yes. But they always say this.

    But usually they find the problem in retrospect.

  8. Socrates @ #1638 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 4:38 pm

    I have mentioned this one before but yet more evidence of the dubious nature of Sydney Westconnex is emerging. Only lawyers and financiers benefit from projects like this. And as with coal power arguments, for the same money ($16 billion+) we could greatly improve public transport. This project will cost NSW taxpayers a lot for a long time. But the financial structure hides that reality from current voters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-rejects-only-bidder-for-construction-of-westconnex-spaghetti-junction-20171011-gyysn9.html

    Indeed. This should be a major scandal in NSW to rival anything that the NSW ALP has done, and that’s saying something.

  9. CTar1

    So go and live in a cabin in the woods with no driver’s license, no phone and no internet. And plenty of tin foil. Because otherwise you’ll never be safe.

  11. …the problem with relying on misinformation, exaggeration and conspiracy theories is that it suggests the real arguments are so weak that if you just dealt with the facts you’d be rolled.

    Sort of like the ‘no’ debate…

  12. Zoomster

    The EU manages to have protections in place for privacy.

    Wanting us to do the same does not mean you have to ditch your technology and becoming a caveman.

  13. Zoomster
    Terror over having not done something that could potentially have prevented a terror attack, civil liberties be damned , if one occurs at some point in the future, and the political consequences thereof is generally more than sufficient motive for most politicians.

    This is the trap / ratchet on these things , terrorist attacks cause a centralised mass destruction that people rally against , gradual destruction of civil liberties effects everyone but only a little bit so people let it go. Copyright law is another instance of awful law that exists this way, the public cost to everyone is small but the economic reward to the beneficiaries are massive , which is why it’s pretty safe to bet Copyright will never set on the Mouse.

  14. zoomster

    As my ‘be guided by what you know about individuals’ handy guide, Dan Andrews is about as left of centre for a Labor Premier as you’re ever going to get, so if he’s unperturbed by the proposal, I’d assume that it really isn’t that draconian.

    Andrews, just like the rest of them, doesn’t want to appear soft on terror.

    Imagine the hysteria if Andrews was the only one who refused to sign. No politician is going to die in a ditch over a few civil liberties, even if they believe, as they probably do that Trumble is talking horsehit as usual.

  15. “I think Oracle 6 was when ‘scot/tiger’ became the default.

    That was somewhere around 1990.”

    And, from memory, was locked down/not installed by default in 11g (2008.)

  16. Zoomster
    The same argument could be made of all these creeping violations of civil liberties though. Short of locking everyone up in a cell at birth , there’s no guarantee of safety no matter how totalitarian the state becomes. You could trip over your own feet and break your neck. That doesn’t stop their implementation.

  17. Zoomster

    So go and live in a cabin in the woods with no driver’s license, no phone and no internet. And plenty of tin foil. Because otherwise you’ll never be safe.

    If you are suggesting I’ve expressed an opinion ‘for’ or ‘against’ this I have not.

  18. Again for you all.

    Terror attacks during an election campaign. Corbyn wins the campaign. Ranting about terror terror and saying human rights are a luxuxry or disposable does not win votes.

    UK campaign by same managers as here Crosby Textor proved this. Do take not of the reality. Don’t fall for a myth.

  19. Adrian
    Yes, first there was fraudband. Now there is FraudConnex. Hard to believe the public servants in RMS would have recommended this form of project delivery. Oh, thats right, they formed a separate authority to run it. All normal scrutiny neatly avoided!

  20. Adrian
    I actually suspect Andrews believes in this one. His comments dismissing civil liberties as luxuries unfit for even debate from politicians and subsequent doubling down, is far too casual in form to have been a carefully planned political maneuver as opposed to a genuine statement of position. Especially given at least two others gave the standard: “civil liberties are important but infringing on them is more so because terrorism” line.

  24. [zoidlord
    Anyone would loose patience with One Nation:

    ·
    6m
    High Court justices lose patience with One Nation lawyer    ]

    Unfortunately about 8% of Australian voters have not.

  27. Thank you, that’s better.

    Daniel Andrews not only supported the move, but he did a very very good interview defending and explaining it, which is a couple of steps further than he needed to go to look like he was just not wanting to be the odd man out.

    As I understand it, it’s only photos from driver’s licenses which are going into the database (I would assume with names attached). At present, the feds can access these photos, but it takes them a couple of days.

    I would also expect that, as the feds have more important secrets to conceal than the states, that their databases are more secure (and yes, they get hacked. And yes, putting all the info in one place rather than several makes it a little bit easier to hack them – but that’s probably balanced, as I said, by a higher degree of security to begin with).

    I’ve no doubt that data will be misused. It is at present. We have laws to deal with this misuse, but if we’re going to stop collecting/storing/sharing data on that basis, our lives are going to become unbelievably cumbersome.

    It’s a bit like putting your money under the bed because the bank might be robbed. Yes, it might be. Yes, banks are robbed. But despite the risk being real, it’s still safer to put your money in the bank.

  28. Guytaur
    It can. It depends on the political environment. I suspect it’s not as much today as it was pre 911. The natural sorting of security over liberty supporters into mostly conservative parties due to their gung ho War on Abstract Concepts approach, and resulting counterforce has mostly sorted people likely to vote primarily on this already. There are exceptions, I still know a few genuine libertarian / classical liberals who support the Coalition for various reasons , and C@t the opposite.

  29. Jaeger

    So they only kept it for 18 years!

    Is 12c the current version?

    I think if there is similar type of userID that it could be found on the net and it wouldn’t be unusual for some Oracle 10 or earlier versions in use.

    Usually an upgrade to a new Oracle version is resisted strongly by the DB management people!

  31. Socrates @ #1669 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 5:05 pm

    Adrian
    Yes, first there was fraudband. Now there is FraudConnex. Hard to believe the public servants in RMS would have recommended this form of project delivery. Oh, thats right, they formed a separate authority to run it. All normal scrutiny neatly avoided!

    And now because this authority can’t get anyone to build the Rozelle interchange (they’re all too busy claims the Minister), it’s being passed back to the RMS!

  35. I feel bad for Roberts lawyer. He has to do a delicate dance of doing his best to advance his clients interests, obey his clients directives and not commit some kind of disbarrable / ethically unacceptable act like defrauding the Court by asserting that Roberts delusions are objectively true.

    Its not often you can say SCs don’t get paid enough but it’s probably true in this case.

  38. zoomster @ #1652 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 3:50 pm

    ‘Or just delete it entirely and then yell “Freedom Wins!” as loud as you can.’

    Sorry, you’re seriously suggesting that each State should delete all their driver registration records?

    Not at all. Just any centralized database initialized with drivers license photographs that might be suitable for use enabling real-time software-based facial recognition in an integration with CCTV or other government-operated imaging systems.

  41. The leader of the Victorian Greens has been announced. Samantha Ratnam. Will take Barber’s upper house seat. Previously ran in Wills in 2016, previously Moreland Council mayor. Born in Sri Lanka.

  43. “And some people here are OK with this mob building a massive database with all our mugshots, DOBs, addresses and so on, on it.”

    Too late to worry about that, they have had a (defecto ) data base for 10myears at least as long as the RTA have been digitising license mug shots.

    The next step is to cross match that with your DNA taken from any blood test / hospital data & your dentists X-ray / photos …………
    Cross matched with your Facebook & Twitter account ……

    The moral is don’t blog anti Abbott / Coalition or Trump sentiments or you can expect a full body cavity inspection when next entering the USA

  44. Elaufaugin

    Yes the lawyer played the game as best he could. He had a terrible case and client. He more or less filibustered his way through as best he could. He knows he has no case. The judges dind not even bother to question him.

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