Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017

Newspoll’s breakdowns find the government sagging in Queensland, and regional areas more generally.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result. Taking into account that BludgerTrack rates Labor a point higher overall, which the addition of the new numbers won’t change, the distinctions between the two are worth noting: Newspoll has Labor at 52% two-party in New South Wales, compared with BludgerTrack’s 53.0%; in Victoria, it’s 53% versus 54.3%; in Queensland, 54% versus 50.4%; in Western Australia, 53% versus 53.3%; in South Australia, 55% to 58.0%. The other interesting feature of Newspoll’s numbers is that the five capital cities are only recording a 1.1% swing to Labor, compared with 7.7% elsewhere. This has been exacerbated by the latest figures, which reduce Labor by a point in the cities while boosting them by two points elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017”

Comments Page 8 of 14
1 … 7 8 9 … 14

  1. TPOF
    Yup

    You got me. The Senate is not a gerrymander. mea culpa

    William tosh back to you.
    Nate Silver was the best of a bad bunch but that did not make him accurate.

    RCP is obviously less complex and is a simple averaging poll of polls. Since I was using it to predict the US elections using Nate as a check, it seemed clear to me that it had a better methodology. It was not as quantitative but it was more in the common sense format of older polls.

    Take a look at the latest pre-election poll.They had every state right or in the very marginal bar one. With forced decisions they were less accurate, because they missed the rust belt.

    Do you need to be rude?

  2. For me – at two outliers are Trump and Russia – and in-between are a whole lot of others :

    Like – Trump Campaign members – Facebook,Twitter, Google etc – CambridgeAnalytica/Mercer/Bannon – Hackers …

    What effect the in-betweeners had is still open to question – things like False ads, voter suppression, voter rolls etc etc …… who may have been conspiratorial/colluded with Russia ????? …… and did THEY collectively swing the result of a US election ??????

  4. guytaur

    PR

    Thats seems like a sensible question to ask to me.

    ***************************************************

    OK Guytaur – I AM asking YOU – what is your opinion ?????? ……did THE IN-Betweeners I listed collectively swing the result of a US election ??????

  5. PR

    I think there are more shoes to drop.

    eg. Facebook. How much did people know and how far up did that knowledge go?

    My opinion is there are some known unknowns.

  7. PhoenixRed

    And what was the quid pro quo? Lifting of sanctions and the rosnet oil deal. Or Health spectrum by way of Secretary Betty DeVos. Or her brother Eric Prince. So many questions, so little answers.

  8. guytaur

    PR

    I think there are more shoes to drop.

    eg. Facebook. How much did people know and how far up did that knowledge go?

    My opinion is there are some known unknowns.

    ***************************************

    THANKS Guytaur – I am of the same mind – but I have the feeling that those in-betweeners – pulled off the greatest cyber digital crime of the century – and actually manipulated the election result and unless the US recognises it and actively takes steps to prevent it happening again – then their concept of democracy is an internet nightmare for future elections

  9. PR

    I see the Russian thing as the biggest action by an enemy of the US since the Cuban Missile crisis.

    9/11 did not discredit the government as tragic as that attack was with casualties.

  10. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    And what was the quid pro quo? Lifting of sanctions and the rosnet oil deal. Or Health spectrum by way of Secretary Betty DeVos. Or her brother Eric Prince. So many questions, so little answers.

    *************************************

    From what I have seen Victoria – when it comes to ruining health care for millions or tax breaks for the rich – the NEW SWAMP has cashed in big time !!!!! …… and that’s what THEY wanted for themselves – and the rest of the US peoples – including those in Puerto Rico can go get f****ed

  12. Cat

    Given what we know now abut Farage and alleged links to Russia. It makes me wonder if there was any Russian activity in our election.

  13. guytaur @ #362 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 4:28 pm

    Cat

    Given what we know now abut Farage and links to Russia. It makes me wonder if there was any Russian activity in our election.

    I was going to mention Farage because of his furtive visit to Julian Assange. The thing that links them all is power and money. They can’t get enough of it and are not averse to rolling back all the hard-won gains of the Social democrats to get it.

    Disgusting individuals.

  15. **Why your council rates should be three times higher**
    I see problems with blanket land taxes. Suburbs are already heavily segregated by wealth and Council Rates currently contribute to that segregation. Increase them with further blanket land taxes will exacerbate the problem. The deferment option (briefly mentioned at the end of the article) needs more careful analysis – it may not be the magic pill it seems.

    I am a big fan of beneficiary taxes and second house taxes and vacant house taxes. There are also options to tax house value increases caused by beneficial infrastructure builds. Cracking down on trusts, tax evasion…. etc.

    But you increase my council rates (they are already freaking vomit inducing jumbo big – and the MOFO Council wont even maintain the verge by way of a simple tractor slasher once a year) and I will rip your bloody arms off.

  16. Simon Katich @ #365 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 4:39 pm

    **Why your council rates should be three times higher**
    I see problems with blanket land taxes. Suburbs are already heavily segregated by wealth and Council Rates currently contribute to that segregation. Increase them with further blanket land taxes will exacerbate the problem. The deferment option (briefly mentioned at the end of the article) needs more careful analysis – it may not be the magic pill it seems.

    I am a big fan of beneficiary taxes and second house taxes and vacant house taxes. There are also options to tax house value increases caused by beneficial infrastructure builds. Cracking down on trusts, tax evasion…. etc.

    But you increase my council rates (they are already freaking vomit inducing jumbo big – and the MOFO Council wont even maintain the verge by way of a simple tractor slasher once a year) and I will rip your bloody arms off.

    Yeah whatever. What I get from that is an affirmation that, yes, efficient taxes are typically the hardest to avoid.

    Anyway, gotta run!! 😛

  17. I like wikileaks. Cant stand Assange.

    I remember the first interview I saw of Assange (might have been the first one he ever did). He came across as someone with unresolved childhood issues.

  22. C@t, I am told tea bags work so long as you dont jiggle (the tea bag that is). Pour the hot water into the cup, carefully place the bag in, wait, carefully remove the bag.

    It changed my view of tea. You can really enjoy the strong stuff (lapsong souchong, russian caravan…) this way.

    But yes, I have loose leaf and a one of those single cup tea infuser dongle thingies.

  23. http://m.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2114437/chinas-corrupt-tigers-tipped-be-rarer-sight-plenty

    ‘Its members will have much to consider after the CCDI spearheaded an unprecedented anti-corruption campaign that has brought down more than 250 senior officials – including military generals and corporate executives – and seen about 1.4 million cadres disciplined, according to official figures.’.

    A lesson for the west to be learned.

  24. PhoenixRed

    [ruining health care for millions or tax breaks for the rich – the NEW SWAMP has cashed in big time !!!!! …… and that’s what THEY wanted for themselves – and the rest of the US peoples – including those in Puerto Rico]

    Too true

  26. guytaur

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-recruited-youtubers-to-bash-racist-btch-hillary-clinton-over-rap-beats

    *************************************************************************

    That’s what I have been banging on about :

    Just think of all the right-wing/Russian bots anti- Clintoners who spew messages of anger and hate every single day throughout the land over the enormous megaphones of Facebook, Twitter, Google etc .

    And make no mistake, spewing hate has a significant impact upon society. It is the equivalent of modern-day propaganda where the population is barraged with a stream of consistent messaging. As ordinary people – individually identified and targeted by assets like CambridgeAnalytica – go about their daily lives, they are exposed repeatedly, day in and day out, to the same messages in numerous forms and by numerous people. Pretty soon, these messages begin to sink in and take effect. The audience begins to adopt a worldview consistent with these messages, regardless of the degree of truth. It is a remarkable phenomenon…… and did it swing a US election ?????

  30. I think Professor Williams’ article is underwhelming. It is little than a minor expansion of what he said at the NPC yonks ago.

    Saying the High Court would have to adopt a “generous and creative approach” to get Joyce and others is not legal analysis. They are just boring labels. The HC could reach an outcome favourable to Joyce and others by accepting that, in specific circumstances, reasonable steps means no steps.

    The voluntariness and Australian by birth points needed addressing. Rather Williams wastes the precious few words the SMH have given him, and his skill, with the repetition of the unimportant observation about how long it took him, after the event, to do the Kiwi citizenship test. The HC would not give a “rats” about this and are not going to determine the case on that basis.

    Nor is it compelling to say that one party’s argument (Joyce) has a problem because the other party has an argument (Windsor).

    Why would not have Williams said something about “citizenship by descent” from Commonwealth countries being a notorious fact, if that is the case?

  33. GuardianAus: Matt Canavan suggests he could quit politics if high court rules him ineligible trib.al/anWJ9I9

    He had a reputation at the Productivity Commission for dummy spitting.

  37. GuardianAus: Matt Canavan suggests he could quit politics if high court rules him ineligible trib.al/anWJ9I9

    Bring. It. On!

  39. C@tmomma

    GuardianAus: Matt Canavan suggests he could quit politics if high court rules him ineligible trib.al/anWJ9I9

    Bring. It. On!

    ************************************************

    …… and take that beetroot faced country bumpkin, Joyce, with him ………

  42. It’s obvious Frydeplanet and Turnbull have worked back from the conclusion they decided on wrt to avoiding a CET like the plague and developed a justification for it.

    I hope their ‘war’ on Labor over this sees them looking like the Dad’s Army of Energy policy that they are.

    Hopefully the people of Australia, like the crew of the Battleship Potemkin, mutiny against the Executive officers of this government and sink their ship. Australia is being fed the ‘rancid meat’ of Energy policy, when we deserve fresh and organic Energy sources.

  48. The shadow finance minister, Jim Chalmers, will warn that Australia is “dangerously ill-prepared” for technological changes revolutionising employment, and argue that the Labor party must focus on finding a fair distribution of the benefits of the new machine age.

    Chalmers will use the annual John Button lecture on Monday night to argue that policymakers need to ensure “people aren’t left behind when the nature of work changes” and also to ensure “the benefits of the new machine age are distributed widely and not just concentrated in the hands of the few”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/australia-dangerously-ill-prepared-for-future-of-work-labor?CMP=share_btn_tw

Comments Page 8 of 14
1 … 7 8 9 … 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *