The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result. Taking into account that BludgerTrack rates Labor a point higher overall, which the addition of the new numbers won’t change, the distinctions between the two are worth noting: Newspoll has Labor at 52% two-party in New South Wales, compared with BludgerTrack’s 53.0%; in Victoria, it’s 53% versus 54.3%; in Queensland, 54% versus 50.4%; in Western Australia, 53% versus 53.3%; in South Australia, 55% to 58.0%. The other interesting feature of Newspoll’s numbers is that the five capital cities are only recording a 1.1% swing to Labor, compared with 7.7% elsewhere. This has been exacerbated by the latest figures, which reduce Labor by a point in the cities while boosting them by two points elsewhere.
Dooley
The question should be why is Mr Turnbull acting against the national interest by backing the most expensive and most polluting source of energy?
Thats what opposing renewables is doing. Subsidy or no subsidy.
Steve777 @ #286 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 1:21 pm
I think that perspective only really works when you’re sitting outside of the U.S. political sphere.
Within it, the fact that a person as bullying, incompetent, dishonest, selfish, sexist, and racist as Trump can run for President of the USA and win and command at least feigned respect and loyalty from large swathes of the political establishment sends an absolutely terrible, society-destroying message. Nothing is worse for the U.S. than having Trump continue as president.
Someone like Pence may create worse policy outcomes, but policy outcomes are only one side of the equation (and a relatively small side at that).
The U.S. is accustomed to bad policy outcomes. It fixes them by having the pendulum swing to the opposite side of politics and the policies replaced. It’s not accustomed to having its political institutions systematically trashed, undermined, and sabotaged. That’s where the lasting damage will be caused.
I’m sure that Turnbull will knight someone any day now.
Steve
Gong the fantasy populist route is to go into Abbot’s wheelhouse. Expect a return and more lowering of polls.
Opposing renewables is doing the LNP immense electoral damage. Expect this to increase with the power blackouts Mr Turnbull took ownership of earlier.
Chickens are coming home to roost as reality bites.
antonbruckner11 @ #293 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 2:33 pm
Remember what happened to Kevin Rudd’s political fortunes when he walked away from ‘the greatest moral challenge of our generation’?
Remember who crossed the floor to vote for action to deal with Climate Change? Now think about who has just walked away from taking ANY sensible and logical action to deal with Global Warming-induced Climate Change, clothed only in a fig leaf assertion that Australia will meet it’s Paris Agreement Emissions Reduction Targets.
Do you really believe him and his Minister for Fossil Fuel Extraction?
His, and his party’s, political fortunes so very much deserve to go the same way as Kevin Rudd’s did.
guytaur
Are you quite well? 😆
Cat
At least Rudd had the fact the international agreement failed and did not have the numbers in parliament ton his side.
He could point to being forced to by other parties. He reached out and tried to have real evidence based policy no matter what the Greens thought of that.
Ever since the LNP have been wrecking energy policy of this country because they are weed to coal come hell or very likely high water.
Steve777,
“Within it, the fact that a person as bullying, incompetent, dishonest, selfish, sexist, and racist as Trump can run for President of the USA and win and command at least feigned respect and loyalty from large swathes of the political establishment sends an absolutely terrible, society-destroying message.”
Where’s the cut off point for the adjectives in the first part of your sentence with respect to the conclusion in the last part? A lot of those adjectives could be used against our current PM and his immediate predecessor. Others would argue they apply in large measure to the incumbents before that.
Steve777 @ #300 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 11:43 am
Neither do I. Newscorp, Ch7 and Ch9 aren’t going to allow that to happen.
Lizzie
Yeah just made that abandoning even the semblance of an RET is bak on the agenda.
Remember I did put an OR into that point about an election being about rational scientific debate.
I am hoping the Or bit of populist Trump approach is going to fail.
We shall see but thats the only sense I make out of abandoning the RET.
Going down the Trump path.
AR
I actually agree with much of what you say but consider these factors
1. Bush the younger was a joke and Trump is only expanding on a theme already underway
2. McCain chose Palin, arguably an even bigger joke than Trump
3. at the end of the electoral cycle in 2016 there were four candidates standing
One was the wife of an ex president with all the dynastic sentiment that that raises
3 were old as Methuselah
1 was a narcissistic madman
1 was hated by everyone who ever met him (cruze)
1 was a socialist ahhhh!!!!!
I am not sure even a really same and rational president could repair the damage done to the US by the electoral process, its choices and its outcomes. A christian fundy will not be the rational choice the US needs. I suspect the emergence of a sane, progressive but still radical third party may be the only way forward, but I am not optimistic.
The case against Tesla and battery storage just hit peak stupid
http://reneweconomy.com.au/the-case-against-tesla-and-battery-storage-just-hit-peak-stupid-33090/
DTT
No matter what you think of the 2016 election. Trump has undone that narrative. The Democrats are going to get strong support.
See Nate Silver on state races.
Even more significant from all the signs I have seen the US Supreme Court is about to rule gerrymandering unconstitutional.
I could be reading too much into Justice Kennedy’s comments but it seems likely from what I have seen. We will soon know.
No gerrymandering and a third of the House seats will flip from GOP to Democrat
A graphic you won’t see on FoxNews:
daretotread @ #292 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 2:30 pm
Thanks, but I don’t need your support.
Were you sparing me because you thought I supported you? Sorry. I thought I had made it clear in the past that I thought your support of Trump was insane. You have only made that clearer with your most recent “Forest Trump” arguments – i.e. the man who is so dumb and so uneducated that he and only he can see the way forward. What a load of self-serving tripe.
You just prefer him to all possible alternatives. As the Greens here are wont to say “same-same”.
You got your wish – Trump is president. Now for goodness sake be prepared to live with the consequences and stop trying to justify yourself.
Guytaur
I have not looked yet at nate’s state by state seat polling yet – There is still way too much time to go.
I am not especially optimistic about the democrat victory in the mid term.
Removal of gerrymandering will work in the House but not in the senate which is a huge gerrymander
Bill Palmer Opinion piece :
Mike Pence unwittingly tips off that he knows a massive Trump-Russia bombshell is about to land
Earlier today, Mike Pence manufactured what may go down as the most infamous political stunt in United States history. He flew halfway across the country to attend an NFL game, planning all along to walk out in protest immediately after the football players took a knee during the national anthem. In the process, Pence unwittingly tipped off that he and Donald Trump both know a massive bombshell in the Trump-Russia scandal is about to land.
Shortly after Pence’s stunt, which he tried to frame as having been spontaneous, Trump tweeted that he had instructed Pence in advance to walk out. This confirms that the two of them hatched this plan together, and as per usual, Trump is too much of a braggart to keep it a secret. Trump has regularly staged his own stunts, such as picking a fight with a strategically chosen public figures on Twitter, in order to create controversy as an intentional distraction from whenever he knows bad news is about to surface.
Trump’s attempted distractions are so transparent that we can always count on a major Trump-Russia story hitting the newswires within the next day or two. Major news outlets call Trump’s White House for comment just before publishing such stories, which is how Trump knows they’re coming. Now that we know Trump is behind Pence’s NFL walkout stunt, it’s a safe conclusion that this is indeed one of his attempted distractions.
Moreover, Pence’s willingness to go along with such a weird stunt – which was so likely to backfire and make him look like a disingenuous idiot – strongly suggests one of two things. Either the forthcoming Trump-Russia bombshell is so massive that it threatens to take the entire administration down and Pence is willing to take one for the team, or it’s something that specifically incriminates Pence and thus motivated him to act. Stay tuned.
DTT
The House decides impeachment to start or not.
Once Gerrymandering i s ruled out it will the Democrats with the control of the House most often and the Senate will continue as it has so far.
As for the states. Silver is making projections from actual elections not polls to predict possible results in the Midterms.
phoenixRed
The GOP Senator Corker who is going to retire at mid terms, obviously feels that he can Speak his mind on Trump now. Me thinks he also knows what is coming
Dame Queen Lizzie.
You know it makes #trumblesense.
Dan Gulberry
A graphic you won’t see on FoxNews:
**********************************************************
Still have a feeling at the back of my mind – that there is still a story to tell regarding the Trump Modelling Agency ….
It’s really quite amusing that Truffles feels he has to pull a new ‘policy’ rabbit out of the hat each week, usually with no realistic consultation or rationale.
We would be feeling much more ‘comfortable’, I’m sure, if he’d just stick to his knitting and try good government for a change.
victoria
phoenixRed
The GOP Senator Corker who is going to retire at mid terms, obviously feels that he can Speak his mind on Trump now. Me thinks he also knows what is coming
*************************************************
Agreed Victoria – For Corker to blast Trump so openly, abusively and defiantly – his, Republican leader, in todays press – I suspect he ‘knows’ – and could not give a damm what he accuses Trump of ….
lizzie @ #323 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 3:17 pm
Like so much associated with Truffles, the law of diminishing returns.
“Who’s worse for the nation — Trump or Pence?”
…
“So who would be worse? To me, this is like the Iran-Iraq War. I cannot pick a side and, to my relief, I don’t have to. But if I were Trump, I’d keep an eye on that nodding head over my shoulder. Pence professes loyalty to Trump, but when it comes to principles, he’s not even loyal to himself.”
What joke of an opinion piece, the author asks a question, then declines to give an answer and turns it into a piece about Pence positioning for a run at the next election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/whos-worse-for-the-nation–trump-or-pence/2017/08/07/d6815e12-7ba0-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.20a2e305ef0f
Player
No I did not expect your support but would have appreciated courtesy.
I think you have the courage of your opinions for which I applaud you, even where I think you are way off beam – as you are on the whole energy issue.
However I think you are given a bit of a hard time by the bullies.
There was in fact only ONE alternative to Trump. My preference of the last four in the race was
Sanders
Trump
Clinton
Cruze
Now i am going to try to explain something to you which (fat chance i know) may allow you to review your judgement
1. As many here will tell you i was (and am) a Rudd supporter. However I believe his position on Libya was disgraceful. There is no excuse and he played a part in what was essentially a war crime.
2. Hillary Clinton was the architect of the Libyan war crime. For that she must be roundly condemned in EXACTLY the same way many of us roundly condemned Bush for Iraq.
Unlike most here i can distinguish between the person, their policies, events beyond their control and the forces that surround them. thus i am capable of really, really really liking Rudd but being appalled at his actions in Libya.
I can admire Hillary Clinton but still believe she was the architect of a major war crime
I can think someone like Trump is a total f*wit but still believe that his personality (incompetence???) makes him a safer choice.
it is complicated! try to grasp the concept if you can.
For those interested I just cam across this probably very significant item about Turkey/US
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/suspends-immigrant-visa-services-turkey-171008180023788.html
Darc @ #308 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 1:50 pm
The point where they reach Trump-level proportions, or in other words the point where they exceed ‘normal’ tolerance for those attributes by an order of magnitude or more.
For example, all politicians are dishonest to some degree. Trump is dishonest to the point where he sends out a tweet encouraging people to look at a sex-tape, and then goes on national television literally the very next day and says that he never did that. Most politicians at least have enough respect for their audience to lie with nuance. Trump just says things that are blatant lies. Repeatedly, brazenly, and often. That’s the cutoff point.
And I would argue that they’re wrong, if their argument asserts a sameness in scope. Neither Turnbull nor Abbott is as bad a Trump. Neither one takes any of those attributes to Trumpian levels. The only thing Australia has that may be approximately equivalent to Trump is Pauline Hanson.
Again I would argue that they’re either wrong when scope/magnitude is considered, or else reaching so far back in history that the context has changed. Of course if you go far enough back you can find incredibly racist and/or sexist politicians, both in Australia and the U.S. (and probably most other nations). But they operated under a vastly different social construction in which those attitudes were accepted as normal. Trump takes those attributes to levels that you just don’t see occupying the upper echelons of power in our ‘modern’ social context, generally because people on both sides of politics had learned to abhor such attitudes.
Trump is dangerous because he’s bringing all of that garbage back into vogue.
Brandis courtesy of doing the correct thing is again looking good like he did with speech to Hanson.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-slaps-down-peter-dutton-over-unaustralian-lawyers-attack-20171008-gywvcv.html
With Brandis attacking Dutton – it looks to me that the internal brawling in the Lib party room is reaching epic proportions
Guytaur
While I like silver’s work I am not swayed by it as much as many. He was after all way off beam last election.
I will of course look at 538 but I suggest you also follow RCP. This was much, much much more accurate than Nate’s site.
in any case removal of the gerrymander probably would not come into effect for the next election so it may be irrelevant for impeachment
I will also suggest that the democrats WILL not impeach Trump, because they would much, much, much rather go up against him in 2020 than Pence.
This is similar to that other bureaucrat (name?) who ignored new rules… He lost his position. So should Dutton.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-calls-on-peter-dutton-to-admit-defeat-over-doomed-citizenship-changes-20171008-gywn10.html
DTT
Wrong
Silver was the strongest in saying Trump could win. He gave about a 20% chance based on low turnout in crucial swing seats.
That analysis was correct. Its how Trump won. He won the electoral college and lost the popular vote.
Tosh.
Constitutional expert Professor George Williams comment on Brandis’s backside covering submission.
Calls it ‘a stretch’.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-brandis-submission-to-high-court-in-mp-citizenship-case-is-a-stretch-20171008-gywv45.html
phoenixRED @ #322 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 12:14 pm
You could well be right there.
DTT
Removal of gerrymandering will work in the House but not in the senate which is a huge gerrymander
____________________________________________
Sigh. The US Senate, like our own is NOT a gerrymander. The word gerrymander is a portmanteau word combining the name of Governor Elbridge Gerry of Massachussetts with the word ‘salamander’. Gerry, because he invented the concept, and salamander because what resulted looked like one. A gerrymander is where the boundaries of electoral divisions are drawn in such a way as to corral the opponent’s voters into as few divisions as possible and supporting voters into as many as possible, even though the numbers of voters in each division are the same.
The US Senate and ours works on the premise that each constituent state of the federation is entitled to an equal representation, regardless of the population, reflecting the federal nature of the country. While we may decry the disproportionate voting power of the smaller states, the fact is that the voting power of the senate is an INTEGRAL part of the federal compact both here and in the USA.
The reason nothing can be done about it in the USA is that it lies at the core of the constitutional structure of the country – more so than the amendments that form the bill of rights there.
Double tosh. Silver/538 was very bullish about the chances of a Trump win. At least 20% IIRC. But a lot of people (incorrectly) interpreted this as next-to-zero.
daretotread @ #327 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 3:21 pm
All your posts today contain exactly the same message. Here it is once again …
His “incompetence” makes him a “safer choice”????
Subtle, you ain’t!
Pence is unquestionably worse than Trump for everyone except the GOP and those who overvalue the appearance of respectability over actual good policy. Pence shares pretty much every questionable policy of Trump and is far more likely to get them through a GOP Congress. And if you think Russia’s involvement was a major factor it’s incredibly unlikely that Pence wasn’t involved if Trump was.
TPOF
I let that go. Just so you know I was not equating the Senate bias for rural seats to compensate for population excess as a gerrymander.
Player One @ #340 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 3:39 pm
Yoda says, ‘Oblivious to Reason, she is!’ : )
PhoenixRed
Yep. My definite feeling with Senator Corker. He knows what is in store
E
The GOP became part of Trump campaign. The only question is which GOP in line of sucession did not get tainted?
Where that line ends I don;t know but thinking Designated Survivor is more likely than Pence who was chairman of transition and allegedly implicated at that stage.
TPOF
You are correct. The Senate is not a gerrymander, rather, it is ‘unrepresentative swill’.
TPOF @ #338 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 2:35 pm
This is entirely consistent with what I learned in my history/social-studies class(es). I give it a pass.
Also the suggestion that state lines were originally drawn with an intent to skew the makeup of the 2017 Senate to one side or the other is generally absurd and historically difficult to accommodate (45 of 50 states joined the U.S. prior to 1900).
I suppose if Texas decided it wanted to secede and then rejoin the U.S. as 30 smaller states, that would be a gerrymander of the Senate.
Elaugaufein @ #341 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 3:39 pm
Pence, for a devout Christian, was willing to throw in his lot with the devil, in order to get his Fundamentalist agenda up. Way worse.
GuardianAus: GST distribution: WA could gain billions in revenue at expense of eastern states trib.al/NQlJFfU
https://twitter.com/guardianaus/status/917251956325961728
This is the problem when you are the government.
You are going to lose votes no matter what. Far better not to open the can of worms.
[sprocket_
Constitutional expert Professor George Williams comment on Brandis’s backside covering submission.
Calls it ‘a stretch’.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-brandis-submission-to-high-court-in-mp-citizenship-case-is-a-stretch-20171008-gywv45.html]
Another thing, I see, with the Brandis submission is it seems to be a one off defence.
With the publicity surrounding these cases, it’s hard to see how anyone could argue the same again in the future, as any knowledge of a foreign born parent immediately raises questions of dual citizenship.
You guys with more knowledge, is this a relevant point?