BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777:

    Personally I do not regard competence as a disadvantage for any political leader. I regard it as kind of essential.

    Pence is a jesus freak but he’d be a much safer pair of hands in the presidency than the incumbent. I don’t buy into the guff about ‘Pence would be worse’.

  2. Confessions

    Pence could be worse be cause he Believes! in his shite. Trump is much more flexible in what he believes on any given day/hour/minute/.

  3. There’s a question over Pence being component.

    He was in charge of the ‘transition to government’ arrangements including the appointments that would have to be made.

    The ones that required appearances before the Senate haven’t gone particularly well and many still have temporary people in them.

  4. poroti:

    Yes he’s a jesus freak, but even so I still think he’d be more stable and demonstrate more mature leadership than Trump.

  5. Bemused

    If you want to be insulting earn the right by actually becoming knowledgeable. You are extremely ignorant on all matters international so until you actually read somethings I suggest you put a spoke in it.

    Try reading the two articles I suggested for Confessions. When you have read a little I will respond to your insults in a measured fashion. Until then learn a tad of humility and keep your powder dry.

    I have no patience with the sort of group think imbecility that passes for intelligent comment.

    Trump is a certifiable moron, whereas Clinton was a certified war hawk.

    You can argue as to which is the least dangerous and we may each be partially right. However what you have no right to be is a denialist, ignoring facts because it does not meet your preconceived notions.

    What you and others fail to grasp is that personal relations do matter in diplomacy and the mutual loathing between Putin and Clinton was very dangerous for the world.

    Given that the REAL point of conflict between USA and Russia in Syria is looming -it has been diverted recently as it seems that Russia/Syria are focusing on the South towards Iraq Jordan avoiding the hot battle for the oil fields – it WILL come and then we will be able to see how Trump behaves in a real crisis. Will Trump go along with the military and engage with Russia or will he opt for negotiation.

    Now I am no longer convinced that Trump is in control of his own wardrobe, let alone the USA, so it may not make a whit of difference whether it is Trump or Clinton in “charge” because in both cases it is the Pentagon war machine pulling the strings.

    I am not optimistic. However so far in Syria at least Trump had until recently performed better than I had hoped. However the recent killing of a Russian general, along with accusations of US providing ISIS with the necessary intel to kill him is a very dangerous situation, along with the near massacre of 180 Russian troops in Idlib (it was averted) are dangerous foreshadowing. Russia has now given the USA three warning about NOT engaging. Will they give a fourth?

  6. CTar1

    There’s a question over Pence being component.

    He was in charge of the ‘transition to government’ arrangements including the appointments that would have to be made.

    ***************************************************

    There has always been a question of Pence and Flynn. Pence, who had been head of the transition team, should have been aware of Flynn’s problems and certainly knew the president had decided to fire the FBI director for probing his ties to Russia.

    Karen Tumulty, a Washington Post political correspondent, also pointed out Pence had been present in the Oval Office just before Trump asked James Comey to drop the investigation of Flynn.

    “This is a bad story for Pence, either way,” said John Heilemann, managing editor of Bloomberg Politics and MSNBC political analyst. “Either he knew and is lying or he did not know and was wildly incompetent. Either way, not a great story for him. By the way, it seems to me the import of this story is that Michael Flynn’s lawyer came out a couple of months ago and said that Mike Flynn had a story to tell — he’s now starting to tell that story.”

    The transition team was warned against Flynn, but they ignored those warnings and placed him in charge of national security

  7. Poroti

    I think you have hit the nail on the head re Pence. He believes all the rubbish and as such is more dangerous than a charlatan spiv who gives all the rubbish lip service.

    We do know that on issues such as abortion and women’s rights Pence has been leading the charge for rightwing values, including appointment of a myriad of district court judges, set to entrench conservatism for many years to come.

    In terms of risking nuclear war, do any of us know enough about the man to have a clear opinion.

    I do not know enough and I am quite sure that just because he is a silver haired and quiet man not given to groping is not sufficient recommendation as I am sure many a serial killer fit this description. Seeming to be sane is not quite sufficient for me.

    For those who are pining for a Pence presidency the onus is on YOU to tell us more about him and convince us that he really does NOT believe in rapture and would not embark of a Christian crusade to kill the infidels, secure in the knowledge that while he will be safely raptured to heaven the rest of us will fry..

  8. Confessions

    Here is a challenge for you.

    Find out a helluva lot more about Pence, to prove that his weido rapture beliefs are not more dangerous that Trump posturing.

    I am happy to be convined but it does need a little more than “he seems nice”

  9. This blog is stuffed. All day I have been stuck on Saturday, comment 50.
    refresh, close down, restart use ccleaner, flush memory disable all extensions on both Firefox/Chrome same comment 50.
    Try again tomorrow.
    Good afternoon

  10. DTT:

    Pence is a bog-standard, cookie cutter Republican politician with an actual governing record that is there for all to see. Do your own research.

    And besides which, your views of Trump’s performance, having been so thoroughly discredited through watching and listening to the man mean I give no credence whatsoever as to your views of Pence. Quite simply I do not care whether you agree with me or not.

  11. daretotread @ #458 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 4:27 pm

    Find out a helluva lot more about Pence, to prove that his weido rapture beliefs are not more dangerous that Trump posturing.

    How about you find some evidence to prove your wierdo belief that Trump is a safer pair of hands than Clinton?

    Your posts on this subject today are very telling. First you said this …

    I am quite certain that if Clinton had been elected we would have seen a hot conflict in Syria by now. The consequences of this are unknowable but they could have resulted in WWIII. We still may well have this, but it WOULD have happened with Clinton.

    … and then you said this …

    Now I am no longer convinced that Trump is in control of his own wardrobe, let alone the USA, so it may not make a whit of difference whether it is Trump or Clinton in “charge” because in both cases it is the Pentagon war machine pulling the strings.

    It seems to me that if Clinton were in charge you would blame her, but with Trump in charge you are desperate not to blame him for anything.

    You are very transparent.

  12. Whisper (and maybe others).

    Today although one of my posts came up correctly, the blog still had the comment sitting in the box and it said I was in moderation. I deleted and refreshed and all came good. This has happened before.

  13. daretotread @ #455 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 4:14 pm

    Bemused

    If you want to be insulting earn the right by actually becoming knowledgeable. You are extremely ignorant on all matters international so until you actually read somethings I suggest you put a spoke in it.

    Try reading the two articles I suggested for Confessions. When you have read a little I will respond to your insults in a measured fashion. Until then learn a tad of humility and keep your powder dry.

    I have no patience with the sort of group think imbecility that passes for intelligent comment.

    Trump is a certifiable moron, whereas Clinton was a certified war hawk.

    You can argue as to which is the least dangerous and we may each be partially right. However what you have no right to be is a denialist, ignoring facts because it does not meet your preconceived notions.

    What you and others fail to grasp is that personal relations do matter in diplomacy and the mutual loathing between Putin and Clinton was very dangerous for the world.

    Given that the REAL point of conflict between USA and Russia in Syria is looming -it has been diverted recently as it seems that Russia/Syria are focusing on the South towards Iraq Jordan avoiding the hot battle for the oil fields – it WILL come and then we will be able to see how Trump behaves in a real crisis. Will Trump go along with the military and engage with Russia or will he opt for negotiation.

    Now I am no longer convinced that Trump is in control of his own wardrobe, let alone the USA, so it may not make a whit of difference whether it is Trump or Clinton in “charge” because in both cases it is the Pentagon war machine pulling the strings.

    I am not optimistic. However so far in Syria at least Trump had until recently performed better than I had hoped. However the recent killing of a Russian general, along with accusations of US providing ISIS with the necessary intel to kill him is a very dangerous situation, along with the near massacre of 180 Russian troops in Idlib (it was averted) are dangerous foreshadowing. Russia has now given the USA three warning about NOT engaging. Will they give a fourth?

    I claim no special expertise beyond that of a reasonably informed citizen who takes notice of events.
    I suppose my two years of Politics at Uni might help a bit, particularly as I studied Chinese and American Politics.

    One of the obvious flaws in much of what you write is the ease with which you turn ‘could’ in an article into ‘would’ in what you write. Almost anything ‘could’ happen.

  14. Traffic Accidents in USA causes over 37,000 a year:

    That would be equivalent (per capita) to about 2,700 deaths per annum in Australia, more than double the actual number of deaths in 2016 (1,230).

  15. Animated graph of the globe heating.

    The world itself touched 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for a few months in 2016. If global warming permanently crosses that threshold, it will likely cause small island states to be swallowed by the sea, coral to die and heat waves to become more common and severe.

    Those numbers alone are abstract, though. Even plotted on a line graph, they fail to fully convey the trajectory we’re on.

    Lipponen said he made the animation because he wanted a “nice looking, clear, and informative” way to convey that information in a way people can understand. Mission accomplished.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/history-global-warming-animation-21670?utm_content=buffer0ad07&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

  16. **The transition team was warned against Flynn… **
    As was the new administration… by a motley crew, from Obama to Sally Yates. Even Chris Christie says he warned Trump about him.

  17. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 8h8 hours ago

    These proposed security laws, photo database, CCTV wouldn’t have stopped the Lindt cafe siege. This is going far too far. #insiders #auspol

  18. DTT.
    Pence has a history of misogeny that would make the Saudis quite happy, but the bigger worry is his links with the Koch Brothers and their organisation.
    I would recommend Dark Money by Jane Mayer to give you some insight into where Pence will take America.
    It is no accident that the party of Lincoln has turned into a protofascist organisation, the Koch Brothers and their 30 campaign to take over the party is why it is nasty, but what is worse is where they really want to take America and the world.

    My hope is that Trump remains President till at least the midyear elections, then the repugs may well lose the house and the even possibly the senate.

    The thought of a Koch plant (Pence was their chosen candidate in the previous primaries) with control of the House, Senate and the Supreme court gives me nightmares bigtime.

  19. “I wondered about how it would go against cruise missiles so looked it up on google.
    According to Wikipedia, only one model of the S400 works against low level targets and it would seem the other models don’t.”

    Yup. Ruskie systems approach is different. On a missile site it may look like all the shots are the same. canisters and truck all same same. However, the rounds inside those canisters are oft time different model “specialised” missiles with very different ranges and intercept capabilities. One way of providing a layered defense. So they say “S400″ or ” S300″ but that can actually mean a number of things nowdays.

    Of course they also have short range systems (Tor M??) that are deployed to protect the missile sites. These can intercept things like incoming smart bombs….supposedly. 🙂

    All of which need to be able to see their targets in sufficient time to have a chance of hitting. Not so easy depending on terrain.

  20. Just found this in the Saturday Paper – the article is about how Aust dodged a bullet with CBS busying Ch10 rather than Rupe, but this grabbed my attention:

    On Tuesday, March 28, The Bolt Report drew a national audience at 7pm of just 27,000. Of those, 23,000 were aged over 55. Alan Jones’s 8pm show did a little better, with 34,000 viewers, and Paul Murray Live at 9pm topped out with 55,000. Meanwhile Insiders powers on, with an average 550,000 viewers.

    So, to Day’s point that audiences “prefer opinion and debate”, perhaps one should add a caveat. Says Barrie Cassidy: “They want fact-based debate, rather than ideological bombast.”

    This is so true for me. I don’t see the point of watching Insiders when it deploys panelists who just spout talking points from one side of politics. And I don’t watch those shows. Same goes for Qanda if it’s dominated by politicians.

    I noted from watching Insiders this morning that whenever they have Tingle, Lenore Taylor, Mega George or even Andrew Probyn, the discussion tends to centre around policy debates rather than the atmospherics or politics of issues.

  21. I’m just totally in awe of someone who can predict WW3 after 2 years of Political Science at University. Sarah Palin look out! dtt can see WW3 from Brisbane!

  22. Today,

    My personal server was hit with one of those nasty new variants of malware that encrypts your files and locks your external drives with bitlocker.

    Nothing you can do because their is no decrypter tool available.

    Thankfully my wife and I just moved back to my parents place before heading of to China so I can rebuild it and have a chance to make my setup more secure and decentralised than before.

    LNP whinges about saving lives when it does nothing about privacy, bullies, cyber theft.

    Fuck LNP.

  23. Dovey

    Thankyou. Confessions please note. Dovey did what I asked you to do.

    Seems Pence is a pretty dreadful guy.

    Since I am not the one pushing for Pence i see no need to spend my time looking him up. You impeachment types need to do that.

    Also Confessions i do NOT think Pence is a cookie cutter Republican. He is a fundamentalist Christian NOT something the US has had before although Bush the younger was close. There is a HUGE difference between bog standard Episcopalians (CoE) and evangelicals. Baptists may be the closest but even those raised supposedly in Baptist evangelicals faith are not really your RW NJ.

  24. For what it is worth I have 4 years of political science studies, but it is fairly irrelevant if you read newspapers and other media.

    I can sorta tell if it going to rain too based on the Bom and what I see out the window, but I do not have a degree in meteorology.

    it is known as analysis.

  25. @bemused

    Which shows people make errors, and with photo Id going to 3rd party company with 3rd party storage company.

    You only need one security hole, or one person to stuff up.

  26. zoidlord @ #487 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    @bemused

    Which shows people make errors, and with photo Id going to 3rd party company with 3rd party storage company.

    You only need one security hole, or one person to stuff up.

    Like to read an example of CCTV catching a bad guy?

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-drink-bottle-and-the-broken-alibi-how-cold-case-detectives-cracked-a-coldblooded-murder-20171005-gyuvos.html

    CCTV also helped to catch Jill Meagher’s murderer.

    Next step is usage to prevent crimes where possible. Tracking terrorist suspects is fine by me.

  27. DTT:

    All dovey has done is illustrate my point that Pence is your bog-standard, cookie cutter Republican politician, in it for their mates and funders with jesus freakery on the side. Something anyone would learn if they gave even a cursory glance at his record in govt, something I suggested you do yourself instead of making strident demands of others to clue you in.

  28. dtt

    Since I am not the one pushing for Pence i see no need to spend my time looking him up. You impeachment types

    You argued strongly for Trump’s election along with his running mate Pence. If Trump is dumped due to his entirely predictable ineptitude (and possible criminality) then the ascension of Pence will be the responsibilty of people like you, not people that have consistently opposed both Trump and Pence.

  29. C@tmomma (Block)
    Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 6:01 pm
    Comment #479
    I’m just totally in awe of someone who can predict WW3 after 2 years of Political Science at University. Sarah Palin look out! dtt can see WW3 from Brisbane!

    Further proof that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

  30. I hope DTT learnt more in her 4 years of studying political science than she learnt in her time studying microbiology.

  31. Thanks Bemused and Jolyon Wagg. Reading PB on the phone it is difficult to distinguish between comments and commenters.

  32. Player
    As i have a bit of respect for you, if only for your courage in standing out from the pack i will try to give you a measured reply and would appreciate it if you could return in kind.

    I have never sought to defend Trump as a person or as a president. He is a sleazy, venal, greedy narcissist, operating on the edge of the law. He is a racist and a sexual predator. While he appears to be mad as a march hare I am not fully convinced it is entirely for real and some of it at least is deliberate showmanship and bluff.

    However like quite a few conmen and populists he has the knack of seeing the wood from the trees or perhaps like the child who sees the emperor has no clothes, his brain, uncluttered by facts and learning is able to see reality without the preconception filters which most of us have built in. He is a sharp businessman because he has this facility. because he is essentially unprincipled he is able to negotiate where a person with more honour/belief system is less flexible.

    To put is simply a guy who wants to build trump towers in Moscow and to get patrons for his towers in New York will be reluctant to risk it all in a costly war. By contrast someone who is ideologically driven eg by hatred for communism or Russia or is a fanatical christian (or Muslim) or a dedicated nationalist cannot be as flexible and at times can be more dangerous.

    It was and still is my contention that at least with respect to Russia, trump was the less dangerous Presidential candidate,because Hillary was a Russiaphobe and had history of negative interactions with Russia and Putin in particular and also made many very hawkish statements. Nothing to date has swayed me from that view, however circumstances have changed and therefore the situations are no longer as comparable.

    Obviously since the removal of the presidential power to negotiate sanction,s trump is a diplomatic lame dog on the Russia issue and it is safe to assume that he will be bypassed more often as he has no bargaining chips. Given the ho russiagate nonsense he is also hemmed in and has effectively little control over the direction of negotiations. Finally it is unclear the extent to which he is in control of defence policy. given the trio of generals who now surround him.

    He appears to be a lame dog president, playing golf while the REAL power brokers get on with the business.

    So player up until about July I think Ttrump had influence over the policy direction but I now think he is irrelevant, certainly wrt Russia.

    It is a little less clear in regard to Iran, NK and Israel.

    The issue then is would Hillary have acted differently in Syria in the months January to July? My answer is yes, yes, yes, yes. There would have been no ceasefire negotiated (which quietened down most of the south, Aleppo and parts of Idlib) and almost certainly there would have been some direct US/Russian conflict by this time. If you can show to me how or why Hillary Clinton would have negotiated those de-confliction zones then you may have a point, but until then I suggest you accept that Trump did make a tangible positive difference for a short time.

    Since Trump more or less lost control of the government in July (does anyone really doubt that), it is unclear just who is in charge and what line they are pushing. There have been three very serious Russia/ US clashes in the last fortnight, so whatever positive peaceful resolution that was worked out now seems to be failing.

    So you will see there is no contradiction in my comments.

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