Three new results on federal voting intention:
• The Guardian reports Labor’s lead in this week’s Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers to follow later today. (UPDATE: The full results reveal the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%)
• A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted on Thursday from an unusually big sample of 4888, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on August 23. The primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 34.5%, Labor down 0.3% to 36.4%, the Greens down 0.1% to 10.2% and One Nation up 0.6% to 11.0%. On 2016 election flows, the result would have come in at 54-46. The poll has Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51.7-48.3 on preferred prime minister; Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 26%, average by 34% and poor or very poor by 39%; Bill Shorten’s respective numbers coming in at 31%, 31% and 37%.
• The YouGov poll for FiftyAcres maintains its idiosyncratic form in having the Coalition with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 50-50 a fortnight ago. After producing somewhat more conventional primary vote numbers last time, it’s back to having both major parties deep in the doldrums, with Labor down two points to 33% and the Coalition steady on 34%. The Greens and One Nation are also steady on 11% and 9%, with minor players soaking up the difference. Labor is credited with a fairly conventional 73% of Greens preferences, with the Coalition getting 68% from One Nation and 60% from the rest. A two-party result based on 2016 election flows would have come in at around 53-47. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1054.
Same-sex marriage survey latest:
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ yesterday released the first of what will be weekly estimates on the response rate for the same-sex marriage survey. It estimates that 9.2 million survey forms have been received, amounting to a turnout of 57.5% of eligible voters. The result will be announced on November 15.
• The ABS figure is at odds with two polls that have emerged in the last few days, which can only partly be explained by postal lag effects. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted from a sample of “nearly five thousand people”, found 79.5% identifying as having voted. This included 64.3% who said they had voted yes compared with only 15.5% for no, with another 6.0% saying they still intended to vote yes and 5.7% for no. The other poll is a survey for the Marriage Equality campaign finding 77% of those eligible had voted, including 69% of the 18-to-24 cohort and more than 80% of those aged over 65. However, the Essential poll comes in a good deal lower, with 47% saying they had already voted, up from 36% a week ago, and another 33% saying they will definitely do so.
• Essential Research now has support for same-sex marriage at 61%, up from 58% last week and 55% the week before, with opposition tracking from 34% to 33% to 32%. Of those who voted, 64% said they voted yes compared with 30% for no.
• Without providing further detail, Sky News relates that a ReachTEL poll “separate” to the one it commissioned itself had a 72-28 forced response split in favour of yes, reducing to 61-39 among those who said they had already voted.
“ The Sky News ReachTEL poll has 47.2% very concerned or somewhat concerned about “what might be taught in schools if same sex marriage is legalised”, compared with 42.8% for somewhat or not at all concerned.
• The YouGov poll found 64% of respondents saying they had discussed the survey with family, 54% with friends, 21% with work colleagues and 14% with others, with only 17% saying they had not discussed it with anyone.
Other recent attitudinal findings:
• The ReachTEL poll found a 53-47 split in favour of Labor on who was best to manage the energy crisis and rising power prices. It also found 41% would support more coal seam gas mining if it meant reduced gas prices, with 36% opposed.
• Absent qualifications about lower prices, a Research Now survey of 1421 respondents for the Australia Institute found 49% would support a moratorium on fracking in their own state, with 24% opposed. Seventy-four per cent said they would support higher renewable energy targets in their own states.
• The YouGov poll finds 42% saying Tony Abbott should “play a quieter role and not be so critical of Malcolm Turnbull”, compared with 31% for “he should continue to speak up in the media, even if it involves being critical of Malcolm Turnbull”. Results were fairly similar across different voting intentions, with the exception of One Nation, whose supporters were notably harder on Turnbull. It was also found that 40% thought it wrong of Tony Abbott to relate the headbutt incident to the same-sex marriage campaign, compared with 34% who thought it was right, with clear distinctions emerging in this case betweeen Labor/Greens and Coalition/One Nation supporters.
• Also from the YouGov poll, 59% were in favour of a royal commission into the banking industry, with 19% opposed.
• Essential Research has results from its occasional questions on trust in institutions and media organisations, but all we have from The Guardian is that the the federal police performed best on the former, with religious organisations, trade unions and political parties bringing up the rear, with the ABC as always taking the mantle of most trusted news organisation.
A big FU to Trump and Kim Jong Ul from the Peace Prize committee
Mr Newbie
Let’s just chip everyone. that way we know where everyone is at all times. Of course we would need regular checks with the “appropriate authorities” show we have not removed the chip. But I’m sure the people keeping us safe will find a way to make removal of the chip without detection impossible.
For all those here who said “Oh but this is going to be just used for terrorists”. From JTI’s article
hyperlink from withing the above piece.
https://www.coag.gov.au/sites/default/files/agreements/iga-identity-matching-services.pdf
p
Arbeit macht frei.
Everyone knows that.
Why is poor Peppa Pig always drawn into political debates about ABC TV content?
Who is JTI?
jimwaterson: Look, I’m not saying this is definitely happening but it’s got a Wikipedia page and everything. pic.twitter.com/FtNF7VAG4Z
Confessions
Maybe a few closet watchers in the LNP!
I don’t mind Nick Xenophon. He says and does some stuff I agree with, other stuff I don’t. He’s basically a Liberal, but doesn’t fit in today’s “Liberal” party, infested and dominated as it is by right wing nut jobs. He also has concerns about poker machines which I share. They should never have been legalised.
Were I voting in SA, I would preference the X candidate above the Coalition candidate if I were in a Labor or marginal electorate, or strategically vote X were I in a safe “Liberal” seat, regardless of what Labor’s “how to vote” card said. A State Government with X holding the balance of power would be infinitely preferable to a majority Coalition Government.
Powerful image.
Confessions
Jack the Insider.One of my fave bloggers for years, even if he is in the Murdoch stable. Always good for a 🙂 yarn but does serious as well. Poor bugger has bladder cancer at the mo, my fingers are crossed that he draws the lucky straw when it comes to successful treatment.
“Why is poor Peppa Pig always drawn into political debates about ABC TV content?”
She’s a Communist. Or maybe a Greenie. She promotes feminism, radical transgender theory and Renewables and hates coal. Or something like that.
poroti:
OMG I can’t believe I forgot Jack the Insider. I always read his columns back in the days when the Oz was a more reasonable paper than it is now.
I wish him all the best with his cancer battle.
Steve777:
LOL!
Confessions
Jack is still there and still reasonable. Unfortunately now days you need to be a subscriber to comment. He had a great crew of regulars back then. One of them must have been a Poll Bludger as it was through a link in a comment from one that I discovered the wonderful world of Poll Bludger 😀
@Confessions
Trump making love with NRA, their gay LOL.
shiftaling
I suppose we would be a lot safer if the government could install video cameras and microphones in all of our homes.
Was it 1984 or brave new world that had the two way TV you could not turn off.
Both were meant to be warnings not Liberal party how to manuals.
Was it 1984 or brave new world that had the two way TV you could not turn off.
That was 1984.
jeremycorbyn: Last week, we said that we are now the political mainstream. This week, the Conservatives’ Conference confirmed that facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP…
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/916207618670067712
2017 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to “PLEASE, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, DON’T START A NUCLEAR WAR! WE DON’T WANT TO DIE! SOMEBODY PLEASE TAKE HIS F*&%ING PHONE AWAY!”
May should go:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/06/tory-ministers-privately-agree-theresa-may-should-go-says-grant-schapps
Shit going down.
There seem to be a trend with Conservatives and prices.
They go fucking high.
Theresa MayVerified account @theresa_may Oct 4
Energy bills are too high and the market isn’t working for ordinary people. We will bring forward legislation to cap energy bills.
” The terrorists want to take away our freedom; ”
No Malcolm. The terrorists want our GOVERNMENT to take away our freedom. Then more people will feel oppressed by teh Government and be more likely to at least somewhat sympathize with the terrorists causes.
imacca @ #1623 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 8:55 pm
Bollocks!
It is too much of a leap from feeling mildly aggrieved about security measures to supporting mass murder.
Anyone who supports increased surveillance should probably read 1984; the outcome is not good.
plabg: How will face recognition software cope…
imacca @ #1623 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 8:55 pm
So, guytaur and zoidlord are going to become terrorist sympathisers!?!
As probable as anything else that’s been suggested today, I suppose.
AS much bullshit as fakenews is C@tmomma.
LOL.
I have mixed views about SenX’s resignation. Yes I’d much rather a SenX type in the Senate than a crazy PHON or Shooters or DLP type. That goes without saying.
But what has SenX achieved? He came into the Senate all about pokies reform and has achieved nothing there. And he voted against carbon pricing and voted to repeal the carbon ‘tax’ even though it had been shown to be effective at driving down GHGEs. Arguably the biggest issue facing our country.
Confessions
Saw a lol description of some Senate minority party senators in an article about voting reform to avoid getting another bunch of characters from the “Star Wars bar scene”.
Teh bar scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6PDcBhODqo
zoidlord @ #1628 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 9:13 pm
I see your inanity has descended to profanity.
Lateline: . @AlboMP tells @Lateline that @Nick_Xenophon’s decision to resign from federal politics is “extraordinary”. #auspol
When your argument, such as it is, consists of abusing other Bludgers, you know you’ve lost the debate.
Mr Albanese talking sense on Mandatory Detention. Politicians should leave to judges not legislative sentences.
poroti:
Seems as good a description as any other! 😀
24 interviewing the founder of ICAN
Calm down bemused.
” somewhat sympathize” does not equal “support”
“o, guytaur and zoidlord are going to become terrorist sympathisers!?!”
Absolutely Cat! Always considered them dodgy buggers……..
abcnews: Australian originated anti-nuclear group #ICAN wins #NobelPeacePrize – founder Tilman Ruff says he’s humbled @AuskarSurbakti #ABCTheWorld pic.twitter.com/Hq1qY4XutE
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/916259424070656001
So what further security measures do we need? Or are we there?
Leroy_Lynch: Theresa May fights for her political life as Cabinet ministers and MPs join plot to oust her as PM standard.co.uk/news/politics/… pic.twitter.com/Xyj3tEyY75
virgotweet: Exclusive: a secret government file reveals the real reasons for Australia’s 2003 war with Iraq smh.com.au/interactive/20… via @smh
https://twitter.com/virgotweet/status/916254489144733696
Wombat
We will never be “there”. Every concession encourages them to demand more. As you can see at the Bludger Lounge there are people from the Left and Right who have drunk the “nothing to hide nothing to fear kool-aid”.
But the big question is, what happened to Rita the Runaway Bride…
guytaur @ #1641 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 9:16 pm
Betting markets are giving her until the end of this month (or next month, tops).
I think our privacy is one of those things that ISIS wish to destroy. I can hardly see why we should do it for them.
poroti @ #1642 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 10:20 pm
And you have a simplistic take on the issue which boils a day of nuanced back and forth down to a slogan.
The removal of May will herald the disintegration of the Tory regime. Excellent.
Federal Government figures will probably express disdain for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, in fact, the Right disdains anything with ‘Peace’ as part of its title.
And further on Peppa Pig. Not only is she a communist, but she thinks that our miners are a bunch of rent-seeking, tax-evading wankers who extract Australia’s wealth for a song.
LOL!
Shorter Assange: mainstream social media platforms no longer treat me as the demi-god I perceive myself to be, therefore I need a new medium through which to communicate with my faithful in a way that upholds my perceived standing as an all-knowing, all-seeing crusader for the good.
Yeesh. Guy’s a total wingnut.
C@tmomma @ #1646 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 10:34 pm
Unlike your highly nuanced, incredibly complex, faith based approach.
All hail the true believers!