Three new results on federal voting intention:
• The Guardian reports Labor’s lead in this week’s Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers to follow later today. (UPDATE: The full results reveal the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%)
• A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted on Thursday from an unusually big sample of 4888, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on August 23. The primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 34.5%, Labor down 0.3% to 36.4%, the Greens down 0.1% to 10.2% and One Nation up 0.6% to 11.0%. On 2016 election flows, the result would have come in at 54-46. The poll has Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51.7-48.3 on preferred prime minister; Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 26%, average by 34% and poor or very poor by 39%; Bill Shorten’s respective numbers coming in at 31%, 31% and 37%.
• The YouGov poll for FiftyAcres maintains its idiosyncratic form in having the Coalition with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 50-50 a fortnight ago. After producing somewhat more conventional primary vote numbers last time, it’s back to having both major parties deep in the doldrums, with Labor down two points to 33% and the Coalition steady on 34%. The Greens and One Nation are also steady on 11% and 9%, with minor players soaking up the difference. Labor is credited with a fairly conventional 73% of Greens preferences, with the Coalition getting 68% from One Nation and 60% from the rest. A two-party result based on 2016 election flows would have come in at around 53-47. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1054.
Same-sex marriage survey latest:
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ yesterday released the first of what will be weekly estimates on the response rate for the same-sex marriage survey. It estimates that 9.2 million survey forms have been received, amounting to a turnout of 57.5% of eligible voters. The result will be announced on November 15.
• The ABS figure is at odds with two polls that have emerged in the last few days, which can only partly be explained by postal lag effects. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted from a sample of “nearly five thousand people”, found 79.5% identifying as having voted. This included 64.3% who said they had voted yes compared with only 15.5% for no, with another 6.0% saying they still intended to vote yes and 5.7% for no. The other poll is a survey for the Marriage Equality campaign finding 77% of those eligible had voted, including 69% of the 18-to-24 cohort and more than 80% of those aged over 65. However, the Essential poll comes in a good deal lower, with 47% saying they had already voted, up from 36% a week ago, and another 33% saying they will definitely do so.
• Essential Research now has support for same-sex marriage at 61%, up from 58% last week and 55% the week before, with opposition tracking from 34% to 33% to 32%. Of those who voted, 64% said they voted yes compared with 30% for no.
• Without providing further detail, Sky News relates that a ReachTEL poll “separate” to the one it commissioned itself had a 72-28 forced response split in favour of yes, reducing to 61-39 among those who said they had already voted.
“ The Sky News ReachTEL poll has 47.2% very concerned or somewhat concerned about “what might be taught in schools if same sex marriage is legalised”, compared with 42.8% for somewhat or not at all concerned.
• The YouGov poll found 64% of respondents saying they had discussed the survey with family, 54% with friends, 21% with work colleagues and 14% with others, with only 17% saying they had not discussed it with anyone.
Other recent attitudinal findings:
• The ReachTEL poll found a 53-47 split in favour of Labor on who was best to manage the energy crisis and rising power prices. It also found 41% would support more coal seam gas mining if it meant reduced gas prices, with 36% opposed.
• Absent qualifications about lower prices, a Research Now survey of 1421 respondents for the Australia Institute found 49% would support a moratorium on fracking in their own state, with 24% opposed. Seventy-four per cent said they would support higher renewable energy targets in their own states.
• The YouGov poll finds 42% saying Tony Abbott should “play a quieter role and not be so critical of Malcolm Turnbull”, compared with 31% for “he should continue to speak up in the media, even if it involves being critical of Malcolm Turnbull”. Results were fairly similar across different voting intentions, with the exception of One Nation, whose supporters were notably harder on Turnbull. It was also found that 40% thought it wrong of Tony Abbott to relate the headbutt incident to the same-sex marriage campaign, compared with 34% who thought it was right, with clear distinctions emerging in this case betweeen Labor/Greens and Coalition/One Nation supporters.
• Also from the YouGov poll, 59% were in favour of a royal commission into the banking industry, with 19% opposed.
• Essential Research has results from its occasional questions on trust in institutions and media organisations, but all we have from The Guardian is that the the federal police performed best on the former, with religious organisations, trade unions and political parties bringing up the rear, with the ABC as always taking the mantle of most trusted news organisation.
This whole security stuff is nonsense.
It is just a code for increasing governmental surveillance.
If there was a REAL terrorist plot, do you think they would use people on known watch lists as their foot soldiers. They will use vulnerable teenagers who have not yet got licences etc and who probably would not even have reliable facial scans given they are still growing.
Are we going to microchip Muslim children on the assumption that in 5 years they may commit terrorist acts.
We are only a few miles distant from PNG and Indonesia. serious terrorists (or spies) will enter by boat or plan along our huge coastline. or be smuggled in through ports. They will NOT be on any watch list.
The only way it will work is if we have a HUGE network of microchip/biometrics readers such that anyone unrecognised will give an alarm.So at every railway station and concert venue, sporting even, checking in to a large hotel etc we will have to go via a scanner. Essentially this means microchipping us all or forbidding glasses etc since these will skew any biometrics readers..
I hope that Malcolm and all you who support this nonsense volunteer first up for the microchip in year ear.
Say hello to Winston Smith for me.
As for get rid of iPhone
I take the EU approach. You can have your privacy and have a proper national security regime.
You don’t have to sell out citizens rights for safety.
NRA’s financial firepower: How much it really spent in 2016 elections
WASHINGTON — The NRA told the Federal Election Commission it spent $55 million during the 2016 election cycle. But according to two insiders at the powerful gun lobby, the total was far greater.
But two NRA sources told McClatchy that the group spent even more — close to $70 million, and perhaps much more. One source, a prominent NRA committee member, told McClatchy in several interviews that the gun group’s chieftain, Wayne LaPierre, informed him of the higher number. And the second, a leading conservative with strong ties to the NRA, said he was told that the number was actually higher. Both sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose the information, which was not required to be public.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/nras-financial-firepower-how-much-it-really-spent-in-2016-elections/
C@, flat battery ?
guytaur @ #1392 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:22 pm
Oh right, so on Planet Guytaur 100% perfect security is the go.
Back here on Earth, those responsible do the best they can with the tools they have.
C@tmomma
Welfare Card Trial = private company controlled by LNP MP.
Drug Trial = private company most likely be LNP controlled or vested interest.
This new test = Someone from LNP will benefit financially.
https://theaimn.com/lnp-welfare-card-true-facts-exposed-corruption-disguised-philanthropy/
You all stop protecting LNP.
Lawmakers and Facebook are in a standoff over lifting veil on Russian ads
Facebook is refusing to let the public see the 3,000 election-related ads the Kremlin placed during the 2016 presidential race — posts that many U.S. lawmakers and the American intelligence community now agree were meant to drive voters to choose Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.
Despite increasing pressure from Democrats, the Silicon Valley giant is holding firm to its line that company policy allows Facebook to disclose “user content” only in response to a court-ordered warrant.
Given the unprecedented nature of the Kremlin’s interference in the U.S. election — and the still-open investigations into whether Trump’s team colluded with Moscow — Democrats’ patience is running out.
“We really want to see them — the public does,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota said on NPR on Thursday. “We’ve learned that $100,000 was spent in rubles for ads during the 2016 election, and we haven’t seen those ads.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/lawmakers-and-facebook-are-in-a-standoff-over-lifting-veil-on-russian-ads/
Bemused
I am not Malcolm Turnbull
I am not promising safety by photo ID.
I see dictatorships cannot stop terrorists. Therefore if they with their controls cannot stop it I don’t buy Turnbull’s con.
Not to mention this one:
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/4967649/questions-over-snowy-hydro-20-as-firm-banned-over-corruption-allegations/?cs=7
C@tmomma @ #1349 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 10:39 am
No it isn’t. It’s a beat up to try and give Mal a boost in the upcoming Newspoll.
As has been pointed out many times already, it cannot, and will not prevent a terrorist attack.
The collection of metadata was supposed to do all that, remember.
I for one will give up my freedoms to lift Turnbull’s poll numbers. If you are, then your freedoms obviously don’t mean that much to you in the first place.
AR,
I was at the Kunming Railway Station in 2015, while there is security there, it’s very crowded and I didn’t see much that would stop something like that happening again.
Barny
The obvious concerns for many re privacy will include the following:
1. scanning at political meetings so the government knows just who attends the ALP conference/demonstration/mayday march
2. Scanning in or around abortion clinics
3. scanning in or around places for treating AIDS
4, Passing data collected at a sporting venue to check on people scamming workcover
5. Scanning around gay bars and haunts
6. Scanning at the races/clubs to pick up gamblers who may defraud the government especially in public servants
7. Scanning employees in large venues, who may ve no disclosing everything to th tax man or centrelink
I am sure there will b lots of others.
A R @ #1396 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:25 pm
Okay, from that link I count 66 genuine fatalities from Islamic terrorism, the last most successful one being in 2014 and the least successful being in December 2016, when only one person was killed by the Uygers but the balance tipped and they all lost their lives. I don’t count the colliery attack as terrorism. As I recall it was instigated by disgruntled workers.
I would also observe that the trend in China, as in Russia, is of diminishing returns.
Also, my point stands that guytaur is using past examples of something to justify taking no steps in the future if technology is available now to prevent attacks.
bemused / dtt
Pakistan has no one to blame other than themselves for being under threat. Opinion that they are responsible for NK being a real danger rather than a joke hermit kingdom is close to being universal.
Their own actions have turned Pakistan into a buffer zone. No one trusts them or cares about them.
It seem to irk them greatly that India is not terrified of them.
I think Nick saw how Barnaby had Malcolm across a barrel in the Fed Parlt. and is able to call all the more important shots there. He thinks he can do the same with the LNP in the SA State Parlt.
From an opportunist political point of view it has the potential to be a smart move – it all depends on the state of the parties after the next state election, and he is betting it will be close, with neither major party having a majority.
He could be right.
Vogon Poet @ #1384 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 11:17 am
Apple can’t lock you up indefinitely. So, straw man argument.
Player One @ #1400 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 11:26 am
It has to be Dutton’s new super-department will be in charge, however the operation of it will be outsourced to Lib donors.
zoidlord @ #1406 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:30 pm
Sorry, I’m only interested in protecting other sentient beings, not the LNP. : )
Gun violence in America, explained in 17 maps and charts
In the developed world, these levels of gun violence are a uniquely American problem. Here’s why.
America is an exceptional country when it comes to guns. It’s one of the few countries in which the right to bear arms is constitutionally protected. But America’s relationship with guns is unique in another crucial way: Among developed nations, the US is far and away the most violent — in large part due to the easy access many Americans have to firearms. These charts and maps show what that violence looks like compared with the rest of the world, why it happens, and why it’s such a tough problem to fix. eg – America has 4.4 percent of the world’s population, but almost half of the civilian-owned guns around the world
MORE : https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/2/16399418/us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts
Dan Gulberry @ #1410 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:34 pm
It has been claimed that a number of planned attacks in Australia have been thwarted and, as is in the public domain, people have been charged, convicted and gaoled.
So existing techniques are having some level of success.
That being so, proposals for additional measures deserve attention.
Personally, I am not concerned other than I do hope they have a nice photo of me.
guytaur
Turnbull and the LNP are bringing in these new measures they are supported from what I have heard by the opposition by all the States including Andrews in Victoria, QLD labour is actually so enthusiastic they want it in before the Commonwealth games.
No one I know wanted to go down this route it is now part and pacrel of the new world we live in. I think you actually said I was naive for me to not think of the possibility of being blown up at a concert, sounds like you understand then.
It is over done and dusted.
Dan Gulberry @ #1416 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:40 pm
I think your hyperbowl is overflowing, DanG. No one is looking to lock you up.
Cat
Turnbull is using either past examples of terror attacks (UK Europe) to justify mass surveillance.
Either that or US gun culture.
They are not arguments for mass surveillance working. We only have the past to work on. Its called learning from experience.
Experience is dictatorships cannot stop terror attacks.
Thus why should we give our rights up for an illusion when we know that has failed already
daretotread @ #1412 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:35 pm
Police do plenty of covert surveillance NOW. And it is far more intrusive for those subjected to it than this current proposal.
It puts a lot of bad guys away for a while.
Dan Gulberry @ #1416 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 1:40 pm
Either can our government. Pointless argument.
Vogon Poet @ #1404 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:28 pm
No, police say she turned it off deliberately.
CTar1 @ #1414 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:40 pm
Yes indeed!
In many respects, a failed state.
dtr,
When has anything like this been introduced without limitations on how and where it can be used and who can use it.
As for your examples some, I think, are non-issues and some I could think of as positive reasons for it.
Like I said I don’t have many issues with it.
Just as well dtt has built her Prepper bunker. : )
Bemused
You are talking targeted surveillance. You know get a warrant applies here.
Mass surveillance is taking away the rights of everyone just in case.
Dictatorships do this and they fail to prevent terror attacks so I don’t see how a democracy that truly is a democracy can do better.
I don’t want to be in the slippery slope of giving rights away for something we already know that dictatorships can’t prevent.
This is a con and its not justified. Learn from Orwell’s warnings or if happy move to Russia or China.
C@tmomma @ #1426 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 1:47 pm
She also stopped using her fitness tracker days before, whose to say she didn’t remove the battery/sim card beforehand because she didn’t want to be found ?
Do we even have the computers that could monitor thousands of security cameras for millions of people?
Cat
Not sure a prepper bunker would help against mass surveillance. The authorities would be curious as to why i am buying such a lot of lead flashing!!!!!
Yeah, it’s all about “terrorists”.
Barney
Are you for REAL!
I know for a certain fact that the existing technology eg phone tapping is used widely and indiscriminately in the private sector. sometimes it is with a nod and a wink from the police.
There is a whole private surveillance industry out there and they “bend” the rules.
The same will of course be used for biometric data. Even if it is only to tell people who visited the footy match so they can market jerseys etc.
Those supporting these new measures = supporting big corporate.
Dan Gulberry @ #1417 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:42 pm
Yes, of course – should have thought of that. The state data will probably just get added to the existing federal biometric database. Not sure how you could outsource the operation of the facial recognition though. You could outsource the collection of the live CCTV feeds, but the data matching? Not even the LNP would be that stupid, surely?
For all of you saying its safety only etc.
Remember the raid on Senator Conroy’s office. No safety issue there except for NBN company trying to cover up how badly the NBN has been going and to Labor for its campaign
@Player One
They will get outsourced to private data centers, because the Government doesn’t want any of this in house.
dtr,
Must go shopping, my foil stocks are low.
🙂
Player One @ #1437 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 12:00 pm
If it “helps” one of their donors or spiv mates, of course they’ll do it. When have they done otherwise?
Ya all fools:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/07/25/swedish-transport-agency-data-breach-shows-governments-are-biggest-threat-to-privacy/
http://www.smh.com.au/world/swedish-government-in-turmoil-over-massive-data-breach-20170726-gxjlm9.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-16/outsourcing-sa-government-computers-supply-breach-security/8124946
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/govt-blames-medicare-card-breach-on-traditional-crims-467502
Don’t forget LNP spends more money on surveillance, than it does Privacy.
That should be a warning to you all.
guytaur @ #1440 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 3:01 pm
And as I told you last night, that is an irrelevant example. The AFP knew the identity of the Conroy staffer and where he lived. They didn’t need any technology to help them find him.
Let’s not remind our selves of the biggest data breeches:
https://theconversation.com/equifax-breach-is-a-reminder-of-societys-larger-cybersecurity-problems-84034
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-04/yahoo-says-that-a-2013-breach-affected-all-3-billion/9013502
LNP is in bed with the big Corporates, who do not want anything to do with Transparency, Privacy, because it’s all in too hard basket.
C@tmomma
Doesn’t that defeat the argument of mass surveillance then?
Cat
If they don’t know the ID beforehand then real time surveillance fails as it does not see an attack before it happens. It does apply and is not irrelevant because of all the extensions into sharing with private companies.
it means less space of whistleblowers to hide as companies cannot claim to not know about whistle blower.
Dan Gulberry @ #1436 Friday, October 6th, 2017 – 2:58 pm
Maybe Centrelink might finally get their data matching right. And the banks might be able to correctly identify who has robbed them. So, David Speers’ point is?
Cat
The Conroy saga is also not irrelevant for this simple reason. We know you cannot trust the LNP. They have proved it by their actions. Totally ignoring what democracy is supposed to be about.
Anything to cover up how badly Turnbull’s NBN was.