Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The only comment I heard this morning on local radio in Perth with the word “Newspoll” attached was to relate that in the SSM round-up, the Yes vote had fallen to 57% and the No vote was up to 36 I think the item said. The dire 54-46 was not mentioned at all.

    While one does not expect the day-to-day media to get excited about individual polls, that this poor figure has not even raised a “report” contrasts with the breathless stuff in days gone by when a slight move presaged the death of the Gillard government. I guess there is ‘news’ and “news”……………..

  2. Lizzie

    i am catholic and deeply ashamed of how the church treated and handled victims of abuse.
    My good muslim friend reminds me of how gay people in their community are not accepted or even considered as existing. So Richardson can spare me his crappy indignation. And seriously for someone who has dodged death, should be a little more circumspect. Fmd these old white bloody males!!

  3. “When Trump does something bizarre, and out of the blue it is usually because he is trying to inoculate himself from bad news that is about to drop”.

    Yep!

  4. PhoenixRed

    Spot on!

    And tea pain makes a good point

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
    Think about how deep Trump’s crimes go when he considers it a victory to have folks discussin’ his

  5. Slip sliding awy for the Yessers!

    “Australians have shifted ground on same-sex marriage in an early success for the No campaign, with support for change falling from 63 to 57 per cent as an argument erupts over advertising tactics.

    The No campaign has ­increased its support from 30 to 34 per cent over the past month after raising doubts over the divisive reform, signalling its potential to mobilise voters to stage a surprise victory in the national postal survey.

    Voters strongly back laws to guarantee religious freedom in any change to traditional marriage, with concerns about the issue growing among Coalition voters in the wake of warnings from former prime ministers John Howard and Tony Abbott”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-yes-vote-losing-ground-in-newspoll/news-story/1d21b1dbe415c8a678f39a311f9d6d9c

  6. Oops try again

    Conversation
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
    Think about how deep Trump’s crimes go when he considers it a victory to have folks discussin’ his white supremacy.
    5:30 AM · Sep 25, 2017
    461 Retweets
    1,428 Likes

  7. LastLaughBlog: When are we having public vote on whether women are allowed to keep their maiden name after marriage? Long standing tradition #ssm #auspol

  9. victoria

    I am very weary of all the biffo and I think Truffles must shoulder blame for not standing out strongly against it.

    BTW, do you think that the support for a space program is just another unicorn to distract us?

  11. GG

    Despite your angst re marriage equality. It will be a reality soon enough, and you will just have to suck it up. And guess what, your ability to believe in whatever God or entity you want, will continue unabated

  12. Lizzie

    You know my feelings on Turnbull. He was just as crappy as the rest of them in the coalition. Just in a better suit.

    Yep. Space program is yet another distraction.

  13. guytaur

    My erstwhile d-i-l asked me if she HAD to take my son’s surname after marriage and I told her there was no law, just custom.

    Look at all the professional women and ‘celebrities’ who retain their birth surname. I think that is another ‘tradition’, like the substitution of partner for wife, which is gaining ground.

  14. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Think about how deep Trump’s crimes go when he considers it a victory to have folks discussin’ his

    *********************************

    I find his language totally offensive to the position of the POTUS with respect to both the NFL and N.Korea

    To call a football player a * Son Of A Bitch* on national TV is beyond the pale …. let alone his unnecessary juvenile schoolyard name baiting of Kim Jong Un – to which Asian loss of face is one of the worst insults and will push him to the edge even more ………I guess the word ‘diplomacy’ has no meaning in his brain

  15. Lizzie

    I may have mentioned this in past. But in Italy women retain their paternal maiden name. When I was a young girl, I was confused when my parents received mail from their respective mothers. Cos their names differed from my parents. And when my parents explained it to me it felt strange as that was not common practice here.

  17. PhoenixRed

    As you would have gathered by now, I find everything Trump says and does offensive. Remember I never believed he could actually be inaugurated. But here we are. Lol!

  18. Kevin Bonham @ #68 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 12:45 am

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/recent-polling-on-same-sex-marriage.html
    Recent Polling On The Same-Sex Marriage Postal Survey

    As reviewed by acknowledged Poll Bludger expert Player One, this article consists entirely of opinion and cannot possibly have any psephy content whatsoever. It is also obviously much too vehement to be taken seriously. 🙂

    Well, thank goodness we got that sorted! Although I think you are being a bit hard on yourself – I never said your article had no psephological content. 🙂

  19. victoria @ #161 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 9:08 am

    GG

    Despite your angst re marriage equality. It will be a reality soon enough, and you will just have to suck it up. And guess what, your ability to believe in whatever God or entity you want, will continue unabated

    You can’t have angst over a concept that does not exist.

    This morning’s poll also shows Turnbull still on the way out. When the chop comes it will most likely be Abbott that takes over. So, with support hovering in the low 30s overall and a change of PM imminent, I can’t really see anything happening in the near future.

    But, you can hold on to your dreams.

  21. PhoenixRed

    And on the topic of North Korea. Maybe I am beinin get mighty naive, but I believe Trump will be unable to act or make any decisions unilaterally in this space.

  23. lizzie @ #89 Monday, September 25th, 2017 – 6:29 am

    PBers have been happily reporting when they return their ‘survey’ forms, and that probably gives us a false picture of overall responses.

    Indeed. I have tried to point this out here before. Also, the enthusiasm of the ‘Yes’ voters may tend to over-represent their numbers in the early returns.

  25. GG

    The concept does exist. Just not in your fevoured mind. just like my dear departed grandmother, could never conceptualise how a television worked all those years ago. She thought that Magic had a role in it somehow.

  26. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    And on the topic of North Korea. Maybe I am beinin get mighty naive, but I believe Trump will be unable to act or make any decisions unilaterally in this space.

    ***********************************************************************

    There was a scary report last week that basically said Trump ALONE !!!!!!!! – can initiate a nuclear attack – all he has to do is open up a map of the world – each region is designated by a certain code – he punches numbers into some device according to that countries code – and a few minutes later Nuclear ICBM are on their way – hitting their targets in 30 minutes

    With his demonstrated lack of control – either with words or actions – then it is a nightmare that is one NKorean nasty taunt to his narcissistic ego away from WW 3

    Trump has ‘unchecked authority’ to order a nuclear attack

    President Trump’s dire threat to North Korea that it risked “fire and fury like the world has never seen” sounded like a threat of nuclear war — and a president does have the power to order a nuclear attack, experts say.

    Trump has “unchecked authority to order the use of conventional or nuclear weapons against North Korea,” Bruce G. Blair, a nuclear security expert at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, said in an e-mail. “I believe that both options are being prepared right now.”

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/08/08/president-trump-does-have-power-order-nuclear-attack/a9MRj6gKeS6yYbdNTYeu8N/story.html

  27. I think Yes is overplaying its hand and consequently there is a “shy no” effect.
    A 55/45 result is going to be treated as equivocal by our No politicians

  28. Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits 13m13 minutes ago
    If this the question order, strange most important one last? (Do like question but, as it asks how ppl will vote, not whether support SSM.)

    :large

  29. GG

    oh and Other concepts that didn’t exist once upon a time. include the idea that girls in paricular went to school until 18 years of age and then onto university if they so wish. Also can get a licence and drive a car, and vote in a democracy. Cos you know once upon a time the idea of a woman voting was seen as giving their husband two votes. Oh the inhumanity. Lol………

  30. OC

    The no politicians were designed the survey to fail.

    Don’t write off the yes campaign yet. All the outrage over a text message reminds me of LNP whining about “medicare” text message.

    How dare the gays and allies campaign.

    Al the low turnout tells us is voluntary surveys suck and i such a waste of money.

  35. victoria

    phoenixRed

    i will retain my belief that he has been neutered in his capacity to do anything of the sort.

    Fingers corroded!

    *********************************************************

    His 3 Generals – Mattis, Kelly and Mc Master are probably on 24 hour “sentry duty” keeping a watch on him so he doesn’t try to do anything stupid before they can prise his fingers off the launch buttons ….

  38. JacobLeigh: Outraged by this letter from my optometrist. I was going to get my eyes checked but now I might just stare into the sun to damage them more. pic.twitter.com/xka1OZTUP3

  39. Hmm.

    Ben Raue‏ @benraue 12m12 minutes ago
    Can you work out when they conducted that poll? That 15% turnout is completely out of line with all other data I’ve seen.

  40. senthorun: Marriage confers rights, benefits, and obligations.

    Marriage is a durable and portable legal status.

    #VoteYES for relationship equality.

  41. The Yes campaign needs to be more insouciant, less apologetic. So, with the text messages they just have to say, ‘So what!?!’, we use modern forms of communication with the people. Just because the traditionalists in the No camp don’t, doesn’t make it wrong for us to do it. Maybe they should also be using more up to date methods to campaign? : )

  43. One of the interestng things about Trump is that he is repeating the same mistake as that other loon George W Bush. His axis of evil rubbish is the reason why the North Koreans became so anxious to get a nuclear deterrent. Trump is going to force them to go hydrogen. The Iranians must also be terrified.

  46. antonbrucker

    One aspect of the North Korean issue I am unclear about. It was only recently that their missile tests were failings badly. All of a sudden they have successful missile launches etc. Who is supplying them?

  48. Victoria – I haven’t looked at that. I thought it was the pakistanis originally. But I’m sure they’ve got their own scientists now.

  49. “This morning’s poll also shows Turnbull still on the way out. When the chop comes it will most likely be Abbott that takes over. So, with support hovering in the low 30s overall and a change of PM imminent, I can’t really see anything happening in the near future.

    But, you can hold on to your dreams.”
    ________________

    GG has a point in that this government will not enact a fair ME bill regardless of the survey result.

    Once Labor gets in, there still may be difficulties as the coalition will not agree to a conscience vote for their members but with a healthy majority and with favourable numbers in the Senate with the support of the Greens it should get done. GG can hold onto his dream till then. Ironic if GG works to bring in a Labor government.

  50. antonbruckner11

    One of the interestng things about Trump is that he is repeating the same mistake as that other loon George W Bush. His axis of evil rubbish is the reason why the North Koreans became so anxious to get a nuclear deterrent. Trump is going to force them to go hydrogen. The Iranians must also be terrified.

    ********************************************************

    And according to a report in the Washington Post – the only country that can act as a circuit breaker is China – and even they are getting very worried about the ramping up of the rhetoric of both the US and NKorea

    China watches in frustration as North Korea crisis enters dangerous spiral

    In public, China’s foreign ministry has calmly advocated for restraint and warned Pyongyang and Washington not add to fuel to the fire. But behind closed doors, experts said Sunday, Beijing is as frustrated with North Korea, and with the situation, as it has ever been.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-watches-in-frustration-as-north-korea-crisis-enters-dangerous-spiral/2017/09/24/33ec15c2-a119-11e7-8c37-e1d99ad6aa22_story.html?utm_term=.dde23830f786

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