Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. Not mention of this Newspoll so far on the ABC or Sunrise or Ch 9 re the 54 ALP to 46 NLP. All about the ME and how the yes vote is declining.

  6. headspace_aus: #mindthefacts isn’t about politics or ideology, it’s about using facts to change the lives of young people for the better #marriageequality pic.twitter.com/aza9TF2CFf

  13. Poll: Majority of Americans see Trump as divisive

    According to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday morning, 66 percent of respondents said Trump is doing more to divide the country than unite it. The percentage is higher than Presidents George W. Bush or Barack Obama ever received for the same question; both peaked at 55 percent..

    .
    The poll also shows that Trump, despite a slight uptick in other approval rating trackers, continues to have the lowest favorable ratings at this stage of his presidency. According to a release, his approval rating (39 percent for, 57 percent disapprove) is the lowest of any president at eight months in office; polls of this kind began during the presidency of Harry S. Truman.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/24/trump-polls-division-unity-243063

  15. frednk

    Great pity that the Abbott Government cut large amounts of federal funding from it just four short years ago.

    Arthur and Martha roolz.

  16. Trump Hides Behind The Flag As Putin’s Shadow Leaves His Presidency In Perpetual Darkness

    Trump made the reason for his fight with the NFL clear on Sunday. The President is attempting to hide behind the flag to dodge the growing darkness of the Russia scandal.
    The president picked the fight with the protesting NFL players because he thinks that he can make himself look like a patriot who is defending the flag by condemning their freedom of speech.

    When Trump does something bizarre, and out of the blue it is usually because he is trying to inoculate himself from bad news that is about to drop.

    Judging from Trump’s behavior, the bad news is related to Russia.

    As Trump was running around the country promising to make America great, there is mounting evidence that his campaign was in communication with Putin and Russia.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/24/trump-hides-flag-putins-shadow-leaves-presidency-perpetual-darkness.html

  17. Frednk

    Yes. LNP short sightedness again. Glad we are rejoining the modern age of innovation.

    If this is all Turnbull’s innovation and agile slogan leads to I am happy with that. I expect Labor will put real money into it.

  18. This Twitter fight by thickhead Trump against a proud little N Korean can’t possibly end well.
    Can’t the WHouse ban his twitter on the grounds of treason?

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The far right in Germany looks like getting its foot in the parliamentary door.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/election-gives-germanys-far-right-what-it-has-sought-national-legitimacy-20170924-gynwrw.html
    And Angela Merkel has quite a bit of work on front of her to form a government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/angela-merkel-on-track-for-fourth-term-as-farright-set-to-enter-german-parliament-20170924-gynwkg.html
    Jess Irvine writes about the RBA’s four points of warning Australia on how to avoid another GFC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ten-years-since-the-global-financial-crisis-it-seems-like-it-was-yesterday-20170923-gyne0e.html
    According to Ross Gittins the electricity market is such a mare’s nest of stuff-ups and problems it’s impossible to see the deeply divided Turnbull government making much progress in fixing it. Very good reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/everyone-has-a-different-excuse-for-the-electricity-stuffup-20170923-gynd8n.html
    The big banks have ditched the ATM fees. What will they do next to stay to stave off a Royal Commission?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-ditch-atm-fees-but-calls-for-a-royal-commission-remain-strong-20170924-gynoee.html
    This contribution in the SSM survey begins with “As I write, I’m waiting for my Marriage Law Postal Survey to arrive in the mail, knowing that soon it will be my turn to participate in a process created as a cynical exercise in obfuscation by one prime minster, now executed in an act of political and moral cowardice by another. You’ve probably already guessed how I’m going to fill in my form.” It then goes on to make some coherent arguments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/logically-theres-only-one-good-reason-for-voting-no-20170922-gymr7n.html
    Amanda Vanstone tells s why Abbott’s stand on SSM surprises her. She correctly says, “If you really believe in religious freedom you must allow others to practise theirs.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-this-is-why-tony-abbotts-no-stand-surprises-me-20170922-gyn43r.html
    Greg Jericho is not so sure about the prospect of an interest rate rise by mid 2018.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/sep/24/the-markets-are-betting-on-a-rate-rise-by-mid-2018-im-not-so-sure
    George Williams calls for the scrapping of the anachronistic Protestant prayer said before parliamentary sittings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/parliamentary-prayers-should-be-consigned-to-history-20170923-gynk5d.html
    The Turnbull government has developed detailed plans to manage the return of as many as 70 children of Australian foreign fighters who may come home from the Middle East as the Islamic State’s so-called Caliphate crumbles.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/security-first-but-welfare-of-is-fighters-children-will-be-managed-government-20170924-gynrrq.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Urnan Wronski on the head butt that stopped the nation.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/09/24/abbott-headbutt-stops-nation/
    Michael West on the worse kept secret in the business world; that is the impending appointment of former Commonwealth Bank counsel, John O’Sullivan, to head up the corporate regulator.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/worst-kept-secret-cba-banker-to-head-asic/
    Theresa May’s delirious cabinet is in denial over who really is in control with Brexit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/24/theresa-may-cabinet-brexit-tories-boris-johnson-philip-hammond
    The SMH editorial says there is good reason to toughen and update protections against foreign interference.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-need-for-legislation-that-curbs-pernicious-activities-by-foreign-agents-20170924-gynoju.html
    NewsPoll has the government going backwards again but The Australian leads with a drop in the YES vote on SSM. Google.
    /national-affairs/samesex-yes-vote-losing-ground-in-newspoll/news-story/1d21b1dbe415c8a678f39a311f9d6d9c
    But its David Crowe does write about voters drifting away from the PM and the Coalition. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-losing-ground-as-coalition-takes-another-blow/news-story/b5c581662c3c8baaa00c635e6f9dce45
    Crowe goes further and tells us that this is the NewsPoll result that Abbott really wanted.
    /national-affairs/opinion/abbotts-noise-impacts-on-turnbulls-success/news-story/eaffd963db0c04a077d66eb98ea9444c
    The Trump administration’s latest efforts to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) appeared to be disintegrating over the weekend, as a growing number of Republican senators indicated they would vote against the so-called Graham-Cassidy bill.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/24/republican-susan-collins-graham-cassidy-bill-obamacare-healthcare
    Is BHP ready to jump ship from the Minerals Council which now seems to be dominated by coal interests?
    https://theconversation.com/is-bhp-really-about-to-split-from-the-minerals-councils-hive-mind-84407

  22. Section 3 . . .

    Australia’s energy crisis ranks as potentially the nation’s most catastrophic public policy failure. Naked politics has for the past decade determined Australia’s tepid response to climate change and energy security. The shameful – and shameless – politicisation of climate change has resulted in a ramshackle energy system unable to cope with current, let alone future, energy needs.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/09/24/climate-change-turnbull-dithers/
    Trump and the NFL are on a collision course. Bring it on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-demands-nfl-teams-fire-or-suspend-players-or-risk-fan-boycott-20170924-gynw54.html
    More nursing home revelations. Sickening!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/nursing-home-accused-of-being-like-guantanamo-bay-20170922-gyn0a2.html
    The first lot of refugees are finally US bound.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/first-asylum-seekers-taken-from-manus-offshore-detention-under-us-refugee-swap-deal-20170924-gynuwj.html
    Patrick Smith says that the AFL’s match review committee has no alternative to judge a breach by Trent Cochin and thereby led to his suspension. Google.
    /sport/opinion/patrick-smith/richmonds-trent-cotchin-in-hands-of-judges-over-grand-final/news-story/3ab187760c001c94810b5b526e4a2d72

  24. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding and the SSM Tunnel of Love.

    Ron Tandberg with a salutary message for Malcolm Roberts.

    Cathy Wilcox with an alternative form of parliamentary prayer.

    Lovely work from Mark David on violence in the SSM debate.

    More from Mark David – this time on our US relationship.

    David Rowe and an international fairy tale.

    Paul Zanetti on the latest sport.

    Matt Golding with Richmond supporters readying themselves for the Grand Final.

    Jon Kudelka on the standard of international diplomacy.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b231f07e93f001b8744c7d440851d179

  26. BK

    Thank you.

    In relation to BHP the core of the conflict is this.

    The Minerals Council has been very effective at getting the little black rock into the centre of Australia’s energy future.

    BHP is a huge consumer of electricity, cost what it may.

    There have been grumblings from BHP.

    Last week Brendan whatsis got the heave ho.

  32. I am posting this paragraph for the people voting no.

    Creating a different category of union, and calling it something other than “marriage”, is a form of segregation. And when there is an obvious difference in power and privilege between two segregated groups (as there clearly is when it comes to the LGBTI minority and the rest of the community), then entrenching difference only serves to entrench inequality

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/logically-theres-only-one-good-reason-for-voting-no-20170922-gymr7n.html

  33. BHP/Mitsubishi is Australia’s largest producer and exporter of coal.
    I am not sure that coal is the issue between BHP and the Minerals council

  34. OC

    It is the issue. BHP acted due to actions by shareholders worried about risks of exposure to litigation if knowingly adding to climate change. There are lawsuits starting already. See California.

  36. When coal becomes an illegal substance they might have something to worry about.
    About 2/3rds of our coal exports are for coke and iron smelting rather than electricity production.
    That is an incredible inaccurate article . South 32 was BHPs steel spin off, coal remains a key asset.

  37. One policeman is sacked or quits every month as part of a high-level sexual misconduct purge after a damning investigation found a chronic level of gender discrimination within Victoria Police.

    The revelation comes as the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission releases on Monday results of a comprehensive audit into how police have moved to fix the deep-seated problems it revealed in its December 2015 report into sexual discrimination, harassment and predatory behaviour in policing.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-police-in-purge-on-sexual-misconduct-within-the-force-20170922-gyn30k.html

  39. ‘Oakeshott Country

    BHP/Mitsubishi is Australia’s largest producer and exporter of coal.
    I am not sure that coal is the issue between BHP and the Minerals council’

    As a major electricity consumer, BHP is a price taker in Oz. In Oz it wants cheap, reliable power untrammelled by the coal politics of the Government.

    The Minerals Council has been a major player in delivering uncertainty and high prices.

  42. “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future*”.

    Well referenced opinion piece on BHP and the Minerals Council:

    BHP has promised to “make public, by 31 December 2017, a list of the material differences between the positions we hold on climate and energy policy, and the advocacy positions on climate and energy policy taken by industry associations to which we belong”.

    https://theconversation.com/is-bhp-really-about-to-split-from-the-minerals-councils-hive-mind-84407

    (* Niels Bohr)

    apologies of already posted

  43. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s reading. Rowe is somewhat subdued today, but I guess the looming war with North Korea will do that.

    I agree with victoria that Trump is trying for distraction with these NFL remarks. Even the Treasury Secretary has called for the NFL to impose a rule to force players to stand during the national anthem. They really are trying to distract from the Mueller investigation!

  45. The Australian leads heavily today with the SSM poll question ‘Yes vote losing ground ‘. It would appear the ABC has followed their lead.

    I still think this result is significant, a bit like the budget with Gonski 2.0, having little effect.

    Abbott and co will see this meaning they have to push further to the right.
    Labor’s comments saying they’re prepared to compromise on energy will be seen by them as weakness.

  46. It might take another week for the good Coalition sample to wash out of Essential, but we’re at 53.x and nothings changed since Jan.

    It’s like concrete. Even Gillard could manage to pull back to near evens (until by some strange coincidence bad news would be dropped in the media, often on the Thursday before a Newspoll…). But nothing Trumble does wins him new friends or seems to scare off any of the holdouts who still for some inexplicable reason think he can actually PM. Equally Shorten isn’t feeling any more love, nor is he repulsing anyone who isn’t already going to vote against their and their nation’s best interests.

    It’s just be rock solid around that 53.x mark with no poll variation beyond what you’d expect from natural sampling (even less). Nothing either side has done has really moved the needle at all. Easiest explanation is that no one who might change their votes is paying any attention at all. The partisans are feeding off their own news supply on both sides, and the others are simply switched off.

    Lots of these will be parked with the loons and t’others. So a bit of caution. Labor hasn’t completely captured those turned off by the Abbott/Trumble shitshow. But the desperation of Brian gives the lie to the idea that the Coalition reckons they can scare em back come the time to vote.

    That is probably where Abbott still sees his chance. This plebifuckup is perfect for him. He doesn’t even need to win it. He just needs to win the campaign. If he can demonstrate his leadership of the FUDfest has moved the needle significantly back to the uglies then he has a saleable product to offer a nervous back bench. If he can show he can pull 5 or more percent back enough loons might fall for it.

    His media boosters are certainly doing their best to highlight the poll gains…

  48. confessions

    I agree with victoria that Trump is trying for distraction with these NFL remarks. Even the Treasury Secretary has called for the NFL to impose a rule to force players to stand during the national anthem. They really are trying to distract from the Mueller investigation!

    *********************************

    I think this sentence from one of my earlier posts say it all – based on his past behaviours on knowing what is coming up :

    “When Trump does something bizarre, and out of the blue it is usually because he is trying to inoculate himself from bad news that is about to drop”.

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