Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll reports Labor’s two-party lead widening, and Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead narrowing.

The first Newspoll in three weeks is a 54-46, compared with 53-47 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has also been cut from 46-29 to 42-31, although this isn’t reflected in the leaders’ approval ratings, which have Turnbull’s net rating improving from minus 20% to minus 17% while Bill Shorten is unchanged at minus 20% (we will have to wait a little longer for the exact approval and disapproval numbers). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1695. The Australian’s paywalled report is here.

UPDATE: The poll also records a narrowing in the lead for same=sex marriage, down six points since mid-August to 57%, with opposition up four to 34%. However, there is markedly higher support among those who have already voted or definitely tend to (61% to 34%) than among the non-definite (38% to 35%). However, only 15% say they have already voted, which surprises on the low side. A further 67% say they will definitely vote, with a further 7% saying they probably will. Support for the survey being held is down five points to 44%, with opposition up three to 46%. Another question finds 62% supporting “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if it legislates for same-sex marriage”, with only 18% opposed. Kevin Bonham has a very thorough account of all the polling related to the survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,409 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 29
1 … 22 23 24 … 29

  4. GG
    Life is full of choices between less than perfect options.

    I have always supported those on here who choose to abstain from this survey. I chose to participate.

  5. I think the point that needs to be made about UN treaties is that they reflect a minimum standard that is acceptable to nearly 200 culturally diverse countries.

    With something that is as culturally divisive as marriage you are not going to get a progressive view because it will not be ratified by many States.

    There would be very few countries in all of Asia that would ratify it, the Islamic ones for religious reasons and the rest for cultural ones.

    Taiwan’s legalisation of SSM was for the same reason that the US did, under their Constitution (equality) and legal system it became impossible to defend against it. If it came down to Taiwan’s culture SSM would not have been legalised.

  8. In today’s Crikey.

    The trick with a good political nickname is not just to slap a degrading moniker on someone — “Blackout Bill” — and hope that the media and voters somehow, by osmosis, pick it up, but to find something that reflects some quintessential aspect of the target’s personality. The “Mad Monk” stuck to Abbott because, in addition to his Catholicism, it was clear there was something unnervingly zealot-like about him.

    The spectacularly uncreative “Juliar” had resonance for Gillard’s critics because of the perception — now acknowledged by her opponents as false — that she had lied about a carbon price. “Kevin 747” made sense because of his incessant travel and pretensions to international statesmanship (and its source, Kevin 24/7, also accurately reflected his work habits, or more accurately the work habits he expected of staff).

    Nicknames only have stickability if there’s something to stick to. Peta Credlin’s “Mr Harbourside Mansion” crack at Malcolm Turnbull, however clunky, also struck a chord because Turnbull isn’t merely wealthy — there are plenty of wealthy politicians on both sides, though none probably as rich as the Prime Minister — but he is (quite rightly) unashamed of it.

  10. [guytaur
    BBCWorld: North Korea crisis: Washington denies ‘war declared’ bbc.in/2fmuTgd    ]

    The war has never been undeclared, we are in a cease fire and so far no one has started shooting off anything more than their mouths.

  12. GG, just to be clear. Are you saying we should ignore Ricky Gervais opinions on everything because a character he once played in a TV show was a bit of a dickhead?

  14. lanesainty: Lyle Shelton tells Sky News that a “yes” in the postal survey would indeed represent resounding support for the Safe Schools Coalition…

    Still demonising

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #1105 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 2:32 pm

    I think the point that needs to be made about UN treaties is that they reflect a minimum standard that is acceptable to nearly 200 culturally diverse countries.

    With something that is as culturally divisive as marriage you are not going to get a progressive view because it will not be ratified by many States.

    There would be very few countries in all of Asia that would ratify it, the Islamic ones for religious reasons and the rest for cultural ones.

    Taiwan’s legalisation of SSM was for the same reason that the US did, under their Constitution (equality) and legal system it became impossible to defend against it. If it came down to Taiwan’s culture SSM would not have been legalised.

    A fair analysis. However,the argument here today has primarily been about posters claiming SSM is a “Human Right” when the most independent reference source that defines Human Rights says it is not.

  17. Zeh, apologies for not fascinating you enough.

    Your post is interesting. Could this become a Panama Papers on steroids leak or is it nefarious (hacker crime/cyber-warfare)?

  19. It’s interesting that those who squeal that they’re being persecuted for having a different opinion can’t then accept different opinions.

  20. I’ve been away from the computer for most of the day. Is it worth going back to older posts? Has any new argument been introduced? Has anyone been converted or changed their minds? Is anyone likely to?

  21. @Simon Katich
    Unlikely to be leaked. Looks more nefarious, and potential Russian involvement.
    Deloitte provide very high level cyber-security (ironically) and financial advice to major banks, financial institutions and governments worldwide.
    Having a ghost on your wires, with access to every administrator account, pulling all your sensitive data over a 6 month period is a pretty major issue.

  26. @kevjohnno, nope, the usual suspects and the usual lines of argument, save yourself the time.
    And on that. I’m sure the two arguing against the pro-SSM stance take much glee in garnering the attention of so many other posters here.
    Isn’t it obvious that’s what they thrive off.
    And yet they have both confirmed they have abstained from voting, I’d suggest those who continue to stimulate them to just give it up and take them not voting as a win rather than trying to convert them.
    A lump of coal will be a lump of coal

  33. But an orange box, quaintly called a black box, survived.

    Technicians are trying to deciper the intergalactic gibberish.

    First translations: something about SSM?

    Secret Service Machinations?

  34. Meanwhile, the ill tempered US president decides to blme Puerto Rico’s problems with hurricane recovery on their debt issues and not offering support.

  35. [Greensborough Growler
    …

    A fair analysis. However,the argument here today has primarily been about posters claiming SSM is a “Human Right” when the most independent reference source that defines Human Rights says it is not.]

    I would argue it’s a Societal Right.

    If as a Society you deem a type of relationship acceptable then there are no reasons why that type of relationship should not be able to be defined as a Marriage.

    As to the legal points made, this is highly damaging to “NO” advocates, as when the issue comes down to a question of equality, the “NO” case presented has been shown to have no standing.

    As I said before Taiwan is cultural conservative on this issue and yet their highest court had no alternative but to allow ME.

    The US case is instructive too, because we share a common legal system, so the processes are the same we just lack the Constitutional trigger.

  37. “There has never been a single person ever set foot on the properties to explore for gas or any other resource,” the spokesman said.

    But Peter Small, a spokesman for the North West Alliance of 30 groups apposed to CSG development in the area, said Mr Joyce should not be making public speeches about Narrabri when he stood to benefit.

    “We still see it as a conflict of interest,” Mr Small said.

    Santos hold petroleum exploration licences in the region, including around Mr Joyce’s property, all of which depended on the Narrabri project proceeding.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/conflict-of-interest-calls-for-barnaby-joyce-to-sell-csglinked-land-20170925-gyor0x.html

  40. kevjohnno @ #1120 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 12:56 pm

    I’ve been away from the computer for most of the day. Is it worth going back to older posts? Has any new argument been introduced? Has anyone been converted or changed their minds? Is anyone likely to?

    Going back to earlier today is a complete waste of time.

    GG who opposes ME and P1 who supports ME but has chosen to abstain are having the same alleged aspersions on their character and their decision not to participate in the ME farce repeated over and over and over again.

    The current discussion is centered around whether or not ME is a human right, and has gone into the finer points of several cases from around the world which may or may not be relevant to the discussion.

    The above does not detract from my view that the posters here who have identified as LGBTIQ have every right to be deeply offended by this disgraceful dereliction of responsibility by every member of the L/NP who have enabled a very toxic public forum which is discussing, debating and denigrating the relationships and life choices of LGBTIQ Australians.

    For the record, despite my very strong disagreement with their views, GG and P1 have every right to the opinions that they hold.

  41. That’s how Tony Windsor wins the By-election. Point out that Joyce is in the pocket of the CSG Industry and stands to benefit personally. Absolutely in contrast to the wishes of the electorate.

  42. Of those who are supporting 44% have already voted. Of those opposed 28% have already voted.

    Seems to me the best tactic is to encourage anti-SSM people to hang on to their envelope.

    Btw just looking at the figures it looks to me like that $1.36 bet is looking pretty good 🙂

  43. Grimace what’s new for me is that P1 has gone down a big notch in my estimation. Not just a oddly-wired fool who keeps taking the losing side of an argument but a coniving troll for arguing a boycott and today P1 cemented itself as absolutely and irredeemably anti-gay.

  45. kevjohnno @ #1126 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 2:56 pm

    I’ve been away from the computer for most of the day. Is it worth going back to older posts? Has any new argument been introduced? Has anyone been converted or changed their minds? Is anyone likely to?

    Whether you go back and read everything or not, here’s the source document posted by P1 that is the basis of much of today’s furore.

    Make up your own mind.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-01/what-does-human-rights-law-say-about-marriage-and-equality/8856552

  47. ‘For the record, despite my very strong disagreement with their views, GG and P1 have every right to the opinions that they hold.’

    Nobody, I believe is suggesting otherwise.

  50. cud chewer @ #1138 Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 – 3:24 pm

    Guy on radio said 73% of SSM votes posted.

    Sounds like “guy on the radio” added 44% ‘Yes’ and 28% ‘No’ to get his 73% figure?

    He should have done ‘0.44 * 60% + 0.28 * 40%’, which gives about a 37% participation rate so far (assuming a 60/40 split between Yes/No voters, and ignoring the don’t know/don’t care).

Comments Page 23 of 29
1 … 22 23 24 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *