YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

  1. Ronzy:
    “Firstly my comment was not intended to express any sense of “what is normal” as opposed to what is not – it is what it is.”

    Yes, but I was criticising the implication – we study what makes someone gay because it’s not normal to be gay. Granted, it is not nearly as prevalent as heterosexuality.

    “Secondly, the concept of the masculanisation of the brain is not a fringe theory or hypothesis, but a well established biological process which takes place during the course of foetal development”

    I’m well aware that there are biological differences between male and female brains, and maybe even between heterosexual and homosexual brains. But these are aggregate *group* differences, and within these groups there is also a large amount of variation. It is too simplistic to say male brains are x, female brains are y, gay brains are xy. Plus, I assume that none of this research on brain differences in gay people is prospective – tracking the brain’s development from birth, before the individual even identifies as being gay.

    “and provides a very valid explanation as to why some people feel as if “they are in the wrong body”.”

    But gay men and lesbians don’t feel that they are “in the wrong body”, that is a transgender issue. And even then, that ignores the pressure to fit into socially-defined gender roles, and the consequences of not conforming.

  2. zoi

    Border farce let all this stuff straight through. Then the deregulated industry self-regulated itself into building some fire traps for greater profit. These profits are not taxed because the ATO staff who used to do all the compliance work have been sacked.

    I am not sure what your point is.

  3. kakuru

    “The money was actually quite good, but the work was hard.”

    I believe you.

    In the US they employee illegal immigrants, and pay them sh*t. As a result the food is cheaper for American consumers, many of whom still hate the immigrant workers anyway.


    Yes Kakuru – like you – I lived in the US for quite a spell – but in California – and it did not take a lot to notice that all the workers in the fields, collecting the garbage, being maids and cleaners in the motels, sweeping the streets, etc etc – – all the shit jobs that most Californians were unwilling to do, were of Mexican/Latino appearance ……but everyday I heard someone say – ” F**** Mexicans ” . It was said by those who cared that the economy of California would collapse overnight if they deported all these workers …..

  4. CTaR1

    Perhaps as further grist to the mill, and in broad terms, there seems to be a pattern that neither the Russians nor the Israelis comment on each other’s activities in Syria.

    Assad lets out a protest squeak from time to time after an Israeli bombing raid, but this appears to be pro forma.

  5. On an evolutionary basis, the fitness of a species is increased when there is greater variation (genetic and otherwise) within it – i.e. it is more able to adapt to environmental change if some of the population has x characteristic. So, I actually think it is “normal”, on a strictly biological basis, for a certain % of the population to be same-sex attracted, just as it is normal for there to be any other characteristic present within a population. A trait that may be maladaptive in one environment could be adaptive in another. If, for example, over millennia, human males evolved to be able to bear children, then there would be a biological advantage in being a gay male. It is humans who decide, through social norms, which traits are desirable, and which are not.

  6. PhoenixRed
    “It was said by those who cared that the economy of California would collapse overnight if they deported all these workers …..”

    Yep, there’s a lot of cognitive dissonance going on. Or just plain ignorance. Many Americans hate the people who do the work, but love the fact that somebody else does it.

  7. It’s all happening in Spain with going-ons in their constitutional court –

    The Spanish Constitutional Court last night suspended a referendum law that was approved on Wednesday by the Catalan parliament, blocking the way for an vote on independence from Spain. The law will be suspended while judges consider arguments that the vote breaches the country’s constitution.

    Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, vowed earlier on Thursday to “stop at nothing” to prevent Catalonia’s independence referendum, as his attorney general prepared to prosecute Catalan leaders.

    In a blistering address, Mr Rajoy accused Catalonia’s parliament of an “intolerable act of disobedience” in passing its referendum law, insisting it had violated the Spanish constitution.

  8. Boerwar
    “Humans apparently find it hard to respect the people whom they exploit. They have to dehumanize their victims a bit to make it OK.”

    Yes indeed. Otherisation. The Nazis wrote the playbook.

  9. Boerwar

    “Interesting facts and figures in the link. They tend to show that the Californian economy would not collapse without migrant workers. But it might shrink by over 10%.”

    A 10% contraction is still pretty severe.

  10. At least the economy in QLD is picking up again under Labor:

    Dee Madigan @deemadigan
    Qld’s domestic economy. The numbers really do speak for themselves.

  11. “An intolerable act of disobedience”???

    Rajoy sounds like a pompous headmaster.

    Some Spanish politicians still seem to have trouble with democracy, it seems.

  12. kakuru @ #1263 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 4:39 pm

    “Humans apparently find it hard to respect the people whom they exploit. They have to dehumanize their victims a bit to make it OK.”

    Yes indeed. Otherisation. The Nazis wrote the playbook.

    Among other sources, the Nazis drew inspiration from how American settlers displaced the Native Americans. Hitler was an admirer and wrote approvingly about it. Hence the German settlers in places like Poland as Poles were pushed out of their farms.

  13. Fire inferno in the background while Americans play golf:

    David Simon @AoDespair
    In the pantheon of visual metaphors for America today, this is the money shot.

  14. Mr Newbie, following your argument (as I understand it) that scientific study seeking to identify what is behind sexual orientation , one way or another, is inappropriate because it is motivated by a desire to explain normal/not normal (i.e. unusual, rare, less common) phenomena, then it is equally inappropriate to undertake scientific study as to what makes a person a “red head”, for example. It is not being judgmental to suggest that being a “red head” makes an individual less of a human than someone who does not carry the “o factor” gene, it is just exploring the genetics of diversity. In the same way, referring to the process of the “masculinisation” of the brain is not about suggesting that one outcome is more desirable than another, it is merely an explanation as to why there are different outcomes. Certainly, it is highly inappropriate and deeply offensive, once the ’cause’ of the difference is identify, to then suggest that one outcome is more superior to another, as opposed to acknowledging that one occurs more frequently (‘normal’) than the other (‘abnormal’).

  15. Facebook couldn’t figure out that Russians spent $100K to spread fake election news but knows right away when a nipple on a boob is showing.
    That’s a reasonable question.

  16. BK

    The nipple detection system is probably an algo.

    I am not sure how you would automate a fake news detection service detection algorithm.

  17. BiGD

    Anyone who has driven on British motorways would understand the need for this.

    Or even just the Hume Highway … no need to go far at all.

  18. Boerwar


    The nipple detection system is probably an algo.

    I am not sure how you would automate a fake news detection service detection algorithm.


    It is going to be an unbelievable process of how and why Cambridge Analytica – with input from douchebags Jared Kushner and Giles Parscale – STOLE/HIJACKED Brexit and the Trump Presidency – – hopefully Robert Mueller and Eric Schneiderman will find the answers for us …

  19. Boerwar
    The bit I don’t have a good feel for is whether rainfall belts will, in general, move north or south with more or less the same precipitation so currently moist areas dry and up and currently dry areas moisten up.

    My understanding is that they will move away from the equator. Thus Goyder’s line should move south, for example. Maybe people from SA could confirm or deny that hypothesis, it should be being felt by now you would expect.

    Just looked it up, the southern march of Goyder’s Line has already begun:

    I have read that the monsoons in northern australia are already being felt much further south than previously.

  20. swamprat

    Re “An intolerable act of disobedience”???. Keep in mind it has been translated so in Spanish it may well read to the locals as not so “pompous”.

  21. Just clarifying a “typo” in my previous post.
    “It is not being judgemental to suggest that being a “red head” makes an individual less of a human than someone who does not carry the “o factor” gene, it is just exploring the genetics of diversity.” Should read “it is not being judgemental or suggesting …….”

  22. Ronzy

    “is inappropriate because it is motivated by a desire to explain normal/not normal (i.e. unusual, rare, less common) phenomena”

    No, it’s the implication that gay men’s brains are more like women’s brains (not that that’s a bad thing, per se), and that lesbians’ brains are more like men’s brains. i.e. gay men are more like women than men, and vice versa for lesbians. Why can’t gays and lesbians have a ‘gay brain’ or a ‘lesbian brain’; why does it need to be likened to a heterosexual gender category?

    What you mean by the “masculinisation” of the brain, presumably, is that men’s brains are, as an aggregate group, thought to have more intra-hemispheric specialisation (i.e. the left and right halves of the brain are more specialised in functions, whereas womens’ brains tend to have more connections between the two hemispheres).

    Your analogy to “red heads” is dubious, as I’ve not heard of a scientific study concluding that people with red hair are more like blondes than brunettes with regards to personality and intelligence.

  23. Boerwar
    Goyders line might eventually re-appear in the north of South Oz?

    As the monsoon belt moves south you mean? I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    By the time that happens, you would expect the desert sand dunes to be encroaching on the outskirts of Melbourne. It will play merry hell with the train lines!

  24. I have just had a bit of a mooch through the geology of the Dead Sea Rift and the Red Sea Rift.

    If the Israelis and the Jordanians are prepared to be patient then plate tectonics might just fill the Dead Sea all by itself.

  25. Bore,

    I remember sitting at night in Dahab, Egypt, on the Gulf of Aqaba looking across at the lights from Saudi Arabia, thinking that they were getting further and further away from me at about 1 cm a year. 🙂

  26. BiDG
    I should point out, in a gentle way, that my nom de plume is Boerwar or boer for short. Of course, should you think my posts to be boring, there is the old standby, the scroll wheel.

  27. [Boerwar
    Meanwhle, Oz is racing towards the equator and Indonesia and PNG had better look out.

    PNG’s part of us and at the moment we’re going under the Asia plate which is why Indonesia exists.

    This will get messy when the less dense continental part of Australia starts to interact.

    I take exception to this reference in Wikipedia;

    [The eastern part (Australia) is moving northward at the rate of 5.6 cm (2.2 in) per year while the western part (India) is moving only at the rate of 3.7 cm (1.5 in) per year due to the impediment of the Himalayas. This differential movement has resulted in the compression of the former plate near its center at Sumatra and the division into the Indian and Australian Plates.]

    “impediment of the Himalayas”?

    The Himalayas are the result of the collision of the Indian and Asia plates.

    p.s. Apologies Boer

  28. IaD
    Got diverted by your post into an article about the bugs that live in the lakes under the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They chew methane and ammonia for a living.

  29. While everyone has assumed the Prime Minister wants to get a Clean Energy Target through his partyroom, what if his goal is actually to demonise Labor instead?

    Most of the media coverage of the debate over a Clean Energy Target has centred on whether Turnbull can get a CET through his party room. But what if he doesn’t want to? What it he wants to keep using the issue to attack Labor instead, even if it means continuing uncertainty for investors and a continuation of the same shambolic energy market situation as now? Political survival is the first order for any government — longer-term issues such as the closure of ageing coal-fired power plants can be dealt with after the next election is won.

    It’s thus interesting that, today, Fairfax reported that Coalition backbenchers were now demanding not merely a CET that allowed coal, but some kind of “baseload investment scheme” that would fund coal-fired power as well.

    This would be a significant movement of the goalposts by the Coalition: no longer would a “dirty” CET be required, but taxpayers would be required to waste billions on coal-fired power plants as well — the only thing that will ensure a coal-fired power plant is ever built in Australia ever again. Labor is unlikely to come at wasting money like that.

    Remember that Labor has moved a long way on this … But it may well be that any offer of compromise by Labor is met by the Coalition simply moving the goalposts ever closer to coal-fired power, with the goal of portraying Labor as committed to plunging the entire country into darkness. After this week, it may well be the case that that is exactly what Turnbull wants to do. And the consumers and businesses of the 2020s be damned.

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