YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

  1. CTar1

    I’ve always thought that environment management decisions became more contested on a political basis because we have a party who made it their main business.

    Interesting point, hadn’t thought of that way before.

  2. [Boerwar
    Israeli irrigation depends to a major extent on (imported) fossil fuels used to generate energy to desalinate sea water.
    ]

    I remember when I was travelling through Jordan and Syria reading of a plan of digging a channel from the Gulf of Aqaba to the Dead Sea.

    The idea was that they could maintain the water level of the Dead Sea, whilst using the difference in water levels to generate electricity part of which could be used to run desalination plants.

    Don’t know if it is seriously being considered but on the surface it seems to have merit.

  3. BIDG

    The Israelis were keen, inter alia because it would have generated hydro power and it would have enabled their Dead Sea potash industry to be maintained in situ rather than having to be moved because of falling Dead Sea levels.

    The Jordanians nixed it, not because they would not have benefited economically, but because of not wanting to being seen to be collaborating with Israel.

  4. I note that as part of an assessment of the sustainability of Israel’s irrigation, the Jordan now flows at well less than 10% of its natural flow volumes.

    The environmental impacts on the Jordan River’s in-water and riparian habitats and on the Dead Sea environment include the extinction of the Dead Sea Sparrow.

  5. The only observation I would make was that during our recent trip there seemed to be a bit of a feeling of resentment that the benefits of NZ economic reforms – which are pretty impressive – were not being shared fairly with most of the people who were doing the actual work to grow the economy and/or who had suffered in terms of income and conditions.

  6. CTaR1

    Yep. Show me the water.

    There is a rumour, apparently widely believed in the Lebanon, that the Israelis have drilled a secret pipeline to steal water from the Litani River.

  7. Bw,

    With the ‘cover’ provided by other goings on nearby what the Israelis are getting away with meanwhile wouldn’t surprise me.

    On their latest air raids in Lebonon, if the flight line photos are to be believed, they are using their F-16s in a heavily loaded manner that indicates the have not much fears of any air-defences the Russians may be able to deploy.

  8. Boerwar

    CTaR1

    Will that include emergency grants and loans to Mar-al-Largo property owners battered by Irma?

    **************************************

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder · Sep 6

    I can’t wait til Trump pledges millions for hurricane relief in Florida, spends it on Mar-a-Lago, then writes it off on his tax returns.

  9. A lot of major rivers around the world are probably going to dry up, leading to the death and displacement of millions, even billions. If the Yangste, the Ganges and a couple of others I can’t recall get compromised the world’s population is going to decrease very very fast,

  10. CTaR1

    Dollars to donuts that they have an agreed shared ROE.

    The Russians get a bit of what they want. The Israelis get a bit of what they want. Both sides have to engage in a bit of restraint. Both sides get to smash what they really feel they need to smash to maintain their interests.

  11. Lizzie,
    Your comment regarding the possibility of a biological basis for sexual orientation has merit. When I was upgrading my Psychology Degree (re-did a couple of introductory units), I came to the same conclusion when reading about the “masculanisation” of the brain, which is a process which takes place in uetero in the early stages of pregnancy. Apparently if the mother is under stress at the time things can go haywire – where a male brain is not masculinised or a female brain is. For me it certainly provides evidence for a biological basis to sexual orientation, if not a genetic one.

  12. PTMD

    Hard to say for sure, IMO. As an example of what might happen, the Greenland Ice Sheet is gaining mass this season despite a fairly high melt rate. The reason is that more snow is falling than ice is melting.
    Looking at what is happening it may be that as one climate belt dries up a bit, another gains a bit of rainfall.

    I wouldn’t have a real knowledge about how that is panning out.

    But, as you say, if the Yangste and the Ganges do dry up it would virtually be All Over Red Rover for many hundreds of millions of people.

  13. Turnbull has done something I approve of it seems at the Pacific Island forum – renewed the deal where the can come and do seasonal fruit and veggie picking.

    Good for them and good for us.

  14. Ronzy:
    “Apparently if the mother is under stress at the time things can go haywire – where a male brain is not masculinised or a female brain is. For me it certainly provides evidence for a biological basis to sexual orientation, if not a genetic one.”

    The trouble is, these kinds of conclusions, if they are indeed valid (normally such studies are based on very small samples, and of course are more likely to recruit people who are comfortable with their sexual orientation being known to others, plus the kinds of people who are willing to participate in such studies – which is probably not representitive of the LGBTQI etc. population as a whole, or people who have sex with others of the same gender but don’t identify as LGBT…), reinforce the stereotype that gay men are less like men and more like women, and vice versa for lesbians, as though all gay men are effeminate and all lesbians are butch,which is offensive to some.

    And what you’ve written has the undertone that a foetus only becomes gay when something is abnormal/goes wrong/is less than ideal with the mother. i.e. being straight is normal; being gay is not.
    I’m not trying to attack you, but rather the way the findings from these studies are reported.

  15. CTar1 @ #1221 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 3:02 pm

    Turnbull has done something I approve of it seems at the Pacific Island forum – renewed the deal where the can come and do seasonal fruit and veggie picking.

    Good for them and good for us.

    Bad for kids like my brother and I were, who did it for pocket money.
    Nope, I am sure efforts on the scale of ours wouldn’t be missed. 😛

  16. Bemused,

    The Pacific Islanders seem to enjoy the visit, seeing places that are different, they work hard while they’re at it and when the jobs is done are keen to take their money and go home and be able to do things for their family.

    It’s a good arrangement.

  17. SSM is legal in NZ. One of my colleagues got married at a guesthouse in Te Anau.

    Mrs Shellbell and I stayed at guesthouse at Te Anau for our honeymoon. The owner invited us in for tea in a room the walls of which were bedecked with rifles. He told us his real job was as a deer hunter.

    We did not overstay our welcome.

  18. Boerwar

    PTMD

    Hard to say for sure, IMO. As an example of what might happen, the Greenland Ice Sheet is gaining mass this season despite a fairly high melt rate. The reason is that more snow is falling than ice is melting.

    It is the effect of global warming.

    That is what happened in NZ to the Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers around circa 2000 to 2007 – they did not come close to approaching their former glory, but extra warmth in the Tasman Sea led to more evaporation, which dumped as snow on the highlands around the glaciers. When I was on them in 2007 when I walked all the National Parks from top to bottom of the South Island I was told that they were advancing – but everyone knew it was temporary.

    In the event, 2007 was the last time they advanced, they have been retreating ever since. It was a temporary reprieve.

    By January 2013 when we went round the South Island they were in full retreat, and the guides thought they would only have employment for another 5 to 10 years tops.

  19. Mr Newbie and Ronzy

    I read a book some years ago which suggested that the mother’s hormonal effect on the foetus varied according to which trimester it occurred in. This explained the variety of behaviours such as effeminate seeming males who are not gay, or extremely ‘masculine’ gay males. I’m sorry I can’t give the reference, but the book definitely emphasised the hormonal basis of gays/lesbians.

  20. ‘CTar1

    Bw

    Lebanon (poor bastards) another free fire buffer zone?’

    Complicated because Hesbollah has been significantly distracted in Syria killing (and being killed by) folk that Israel would like to see killed.

    As far as I can work out the majority of Israeli strikes have targetted munitions, missiles and chemical stocks that might fall into the hands of Hesbollah to the eventual detriment of Israel.

    Apart from that, occasionally when someone on the Syrian side of the Golan forgets their manners, they get a reminder of wot’s wot.

    OTOH, it is clear that the Israeli medical system is being used to patch fighters deemed to be doing ‘good’ in Syria. The casualties cross the border into Israel, get fixed, and then go back.

  21. don
    Yes.
    The bit I don’t have a good feel for is whether rainfall belts will, in general, move north or south with more or less the same precipitation so currently moist areas dry and up and currently dry areas moisten up.

  22. Mr Newbie,
    Firstly my comment was not intended to express any sense of “what is normal” as opposed to what is not – it is what it is. Secondly, the concept of the masculanisation of the brain is not a fringe theory or hypothesis, but a well established biological process which takes place during the course of foetal development (not as you suggest an ill considered conclusion resulting from limited scientifically problematic “studies”) and provides a very valid explanation as to why some people feel as if “they are in the wrong body”. You may find this article (which I found after doing a “google” search before responding to your post) quite informative and not in the least judgmental. http://quillette.com/2017/07/30/traditionalists-activists-wrong-sex-gender/.
    It may also interest you to know that I have used the concept of the masculinisation of the brain as a counter to the argument put out there by evangelical Christians who believe that sexual orientation and gender identity is a choice and therefore a “sin” and people can choose to be heterosexual, despite their homosexual orientation.

  23. CTar1

    ‘poroti

    It would be good if we could show some teeth in protecting them in particular against outright exploitation.’

    There is absolutely zero interest among the Coalition in preventing agricultural labour from being exploited. Zip.

  24. CTar1 @ #1226 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 3:19 pm

    Bemused,

    The Pacific Islanders seem to enjoy the visit, seeing places that are different, they work hard while they’re at it and when the jobs is done are keen to take their money and go home and be able to do things for their family.

    It’s a good arrangement.

    Oh I agree entirely.

    When I was a kid it was done by seasonal workers, mainly Aboriginal, who lived itinerant lifestyles following the crops. Most of the kids didn’t get much of an education.

    The money was actually quite good, but the work was hard.

  25. lizzie @ #1231 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 3:27 pm

    Mr Newbie and Ronzy

    I read a book some years ago which suggested that the mother’s hormonal effect on the foetus varied according to which trimester it occurred in. This explained the variety of behaviours such as effeminate seeming males who are not gay, or extremely ‘masculine’ gay males. I’m sorry I can’t give the reference, but the book definitely emphasised the hormonal basis of gays/lesbians.

    Lizzie, it may extend back further than one generation, and derive from the influence of one’s parents own prenatal resistance to sexualising hormones (that’s a very loose expression).

    Involved is more than just the levels of hormones, but also the counter-balancing effects on normal fluctuations of hormones by foetal gene triggers which alter sensitivity to sex hormones.

    It is complex, and like all physiology, the whole outcome is the result of finely tuned pluses and minuses. The neurohumoral complexity involved in (say) one’s heart rate is an obvious example.

    That our legislators don’t even attempt to avail themselves of some of the current thinking on these complex issues is at the least disappointing. It’s a lot easier to just be “old fashioned”. Heads should hang in shame.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/12/homosexuality-may-start-womb

    http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/668167?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
    (homosexuality as a consequence of epigenetically canalised sexual development)

  26. bemused

    when we had the Commonwealth Employment Service.

    Just another thing on the long list of JWHs’ destruction targets with Joe Hockey being his main agent of destruction.

  27. bemused
    “The money was actually quite good, but the work was hard.”

    I believe you.

    In the US they employee illegal immigrants, and pay them sh*t. As a result the food is cheaper for American consumers, many of whom still hate the immigrant workers anyway.

  28. ItzaDream

    The religious types who try to ‘talk them out of it’ or even use physical punishment to change behaviour, I find despicable.

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