YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

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  2. “Lizzie posted an article some way back describing Australia as a “middle of the road country”. How true, once upon a time I thought we were progressive and “clever”.”

    It has occurred to me recently that the Coalition have been in government for 15 of the 21 years I’ve been an ‘adult’. That is depressing. Before then, I too used to think that Australia was a smart country – perhaps it was the naivety of youth.

  3. “paulkidd: Caller on @abcmelbourne says #SSM will lead to gay terrorists sponsoring their same-sex terrorist partners through the immigration system.”

    He might have a point. Those ISIS recruitment videos have always struck me as homoerotic.

  4. Steve

    Thanks for the tip about Rozos.

    Denis Fernandez is running and if you can vote for him, you may want to do so.

    Lovely bloke. Heavily involved in East Timor development

  5. mikehilliard @ #1150 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 11:07 am

    Woke up today feeling a bit down on yesterdays HC ruling. I know it doesn’t matter much as ME will arrive one day but just watching how the PM gloated over this minor “victory” over a survey as to whether all Australian’s should have equal rights just depresses the shit out of me. Lizzie posted an article some way back describing Australia as a “middle of the road country”. How true, once upon a time I thought we were progressive and “clever”.

    Think I know exactly how you feel.

    Pathetic doesn’t even come close to describing how bad the political situation is in this country.
    As you might expect a large part of the blame lies with the media, particularly Murdoch and his minions.

  6. It doesn’t matter what field of government responsibility you look at, all have been degraded under this government.

    They should all hang their heads in shame, but instead they blame Labor, as sections of the media applaud from the sidelines.

  7. I find the MP’s insistence that we can have a respectful conversation about marriage equality rather pathetic. In his presser Shorten said that his office had received many ‘disrespectful’ messages.

    But then, the Coalition never take any notice of empirical evidence.

  8. I don’t want to provoke the Bore into more of his rants on last nights burning issue, but this is a timely article.

    This Tiny Country Feeds the World

    The Netherlands has become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like.

    In a potato field near the Netherlands’ border with Belgium, Dutch farmer Jacob van den Borne is seated in the cabin of an immense harvester before an instrument panel worthy of the starship Enterprise.

    From his perch 10 feet above the ground, he’s monitoring two drones—a driverless tractor roaming the fields and a quadcopter in the air—that provide detailed readings on soil chemistry, water content, nutrients, and growth, measuring the progress of every plant down to the individual potato. Van den Borne’s production numbers testify to the power of this “precision farming,” as it’s known. The global average yield of potatoes per acre is about nine tons. Van den Borne’s fields reliably produce more than 20.

    That copious output is made all the more remarkable by the other side of the balance sheet: inputs. Almost two decades ago, the Dutch made a national commitment to sustainable agriculture under the rallying cry “Twice as much food using half as many resources.” Since 2000, van den Borne and many of his fellow farmers have reduced dependence on water for key crops by as much as 90 percent. They’ve almost completely eliminated the use of chemical pesticides on plants in greenhouses, and since 2009 Dutch poultry and livestock producers have cut their use of antibiotics by as much as 60 percent.

    One more reason to marvel: The Netherlands is a small, densely populated country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by value, second only to the United States, which has 270 times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done it?

    Seen from the air, the Netherlands resembles no other major food producer—a fragmented patchwork of intensely cultivated fields, most of them tiny by agribusiness standards, punctuated by bustling cities and suburbs. In the country’s principal farming regions, there’s almost no potato patch, no greenhouse, no hog barn that’s out of sight of skyscrapers, manufacturing plants, or urban sprawl. More than half the nation’s land area is used for agriculture and horticulture.

    Banks of what appear to be gargantuan mirrors stretch across the countryside, glinting when the sun shines and glowing with eerie interior light when night falls. They are Holland’s extraordinary greenhouse complexes, some of them covering 175 acres.

    These climate-controlled farms enable a country located a scant thousand miles from the Arctic Circle to be a global leader in exports of a fair-weather fruit: the tomato. The Dutch are also the world’s top exporter of potatoes and onions and the second largest exporter of vegetables overall in terms of value. More than a third of all global trade in vegetable seeds originates in the Netherlands.
    —
    http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits

    We have a long way to go in improving agricultural productivity.

    I heard a program on the BBC describing this and how the Chinese have been visiting the Netherlands, getting all excited and wanting to export the technology and techniques back to China immediately!

    As for Australia, well, when I visited Mildura about 10 years ago and saw the absolutely profligate waste of water with highly inefficient irrigation methods, I decided then and there that Australia doesn’t have a water shortage problem. It has a stupidity and wastage of water problem.

  9. poroti

    KayJay

    What prompted you to take up the uniform of the Coalition cabinet.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………

    I plead insanity. ☕

  11. The first official names of features on Pluto announced. Good choices.

    Indigenous Austrlia gets a look-in via Djanggawul Fossae, named after creation figures in Yolngu Dreaming. ‘Fossae’ are ditch- or canyon-life features,

    : https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/sep/07/pluto-dwarf-planets-surface-features-given-first-official-names?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=242753&subid=10093886&CMP=ema_632

  12. adrian @ #1156 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 11:41 am

    It doesn’t matter what field of government responsibility you look at, all have been degraded under this government.

    They should all hang their heads in shame, but instead they blame Labor, as sections of the media applaud from the sidelines.

    I feel the same.
    When ABC’s Utopia achieves more, with less drama and fewer stuff ups, than our actual government which has all the mediocrity and melodrama of a midday soap…
    But such is the trend lately, USA, UK, Australia…. At this point I would welcome a Chinese invasion, and hell, at least North Korea has some ambition

  14. mh

    How true, once upon a time I thought we were progressive and “clever”.How true, once upon a time I thought we were progressive and “clever”.

    The last time I was in the UK and France the question from friend and acquaintances was very much ‘What is going on down there?’

  15. Interesting article bemused.

    Having read last night’s debate it seemed like I was reading about a fixed system where no further improvements were possible.

    There was little about the lack and lag of infrastructure development placing pressure on our urban areas.

    What about decentralisation of our urban centres and what is required to facilitate this? (internet, transport links …)

    Governments are too reactionary, rather than demonstrating proactive ideas that facilitate growth.

    Land use practices are developing, as your article shows, yet we show a reluctance for change.

    Until governments start to look to the future in a rational and structured way debates about immigration numbers will persist.

    For some opposition to immigration will have racist motives but for most, I would suggest, it would be a reflection of Government inaction in properly planning and preparing for a growing society.

  16. For some opposition to immigration will have racist motives but for most, I would suggest, it would be a reflection of Government inaction in properly planning and preparing for a growing society.

    This.
    You only need to live in Sydney for 24 hours to realise that this is the case.

    Everywhere in this country rational planning and foresight is held captive to vested interests and political expediency.

  17. This is not news.
    The paper suggested that the findings provide “strong support” for the theory that sexual orientation stems from exposure to certain hormones before birth, meaning people are born gay and being queer is not a choice.

    Artificial intelligence can accurately guess whether people are gay or straight based on photos of their faces, according to new research suggesting that machines can have significantly better “gaydar” than humans.

    The study from Stanford University – which found that a computer algorithm could correctly distinguish between gay and straight men 81% of the time, and 74% for women – has raised questions about the biological origins of sexual orientation, the ethics of facial-detection technology and the potential for this kind of software to violate people’s privacy or be abused for anti-LGBT purposes.

    The machine intelligence tested in the research, which was published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology and first reported in the Economist, was based on a sample of more than 35,000 facial images that men and women publicly posted on a US dating website. The researchers, Michal Kosinski and Yilun Wang, extracted features from the images using “deep neural networks”, meaning a sophisticated mathematical system that learns to analyze visuals based on a large dataset.
    …
    The paper suggested that the findings provide “strong support” for the theory that sexual orientation stems from exposure to certain hormones before birth, meaning people are born gay and being queer is not a choice. The machine’s lower success rate for women also could support the notion that female sexual orientation is more fluid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/07/new-artificial-intelligence-can-tell-whether-youre-gay-or-straight-from-a-photograph?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=242753&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  19. His relief in the moment expressed itself as arrogance.

    Malcolm Turnbull looked for all the world like a prime minister who had dodged a bullet when the high court declined to throw out the postal survey.

    His relief in the moment expressed itself as arrogance. Here was a comprehensive victory over enemies, within and without. He leaned over Bill Shorten, like a heavyweight boxer who had just put his opponent on the mat.

    The reaction – pure adrenaline – tells you a lot about a prime minister living in a near permanent state of siege.

    If you watch politicians over a long period of time, at the top of their game, when things are going well, when the big moments come, when events intrude and impose themselves, they tend to dial themselves down.

    Their words and reactions mould to the moment and shape it into some sort of collective experience. Leaders at the top of their game speak for the nation and causes beyond themselves.

    They don’t burst out of moments, discordant – which was Turnbull on Thursday, triumphant, oversized, self-referential – taking grim possession of his high court victory, a trophy on a belt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/07/malcolm-turnbulls-relief-palpable-as-he-dodges-same-sex-marriage-bullet?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=242753&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  20. This is one thing I hate about the reporting of natural disasters.

    The apparent valuing one group of people over another.

    [Meanwhile, two other hurricanes formed on Wednesday.

    Hurricane Katia in the Gulf of Mexico reportedly posed no threat to the United States, but Hurricane Jose, which was still about 1,300 kilometres east of the Caribbean, is feared to eventually threaten the US mainland.]

    So Katia isn’t a problem and the main problem with Jose is the threat to the USA.

    Don’t worry about all those other places that may be affected.

    The same thing happened after Harvey the focus was on the USA, meanwhile monsoon floods in India and Bangladesh affected many more people and resulted in greater loss of life but received little coverage.

    All life matters!

    🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-08/hurricane-irma-heads-towards-haiti-after-flattening-islands/8884046

  21. BIDG

    ‘… it seemed like I was reading about a fixed system where no further improvements were possible.’

    Which it isn’t.

    The point is that we have a population level which has resource use patterns that are unsustainable right now.

    There is absolutely no point in adding hundreds of thousands of people a year to current unsustainable systems.

    Crossing fingers and hoping that it will all somehow sort itself out in the end is irresponsible.

  22. BIDG

    Yep.

    The other element of this Hurricane reporting season is that US Fed employees are banned from using the term ‘climate change’. It is interesting that there is enough energy in the systems to have three simultaneous hurricane systems on the go at the same time.

  23. CTar1 @ #1128 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 10:36 am

    On refurbishment of Liddel – I’m very reluctantly of the view that one of the NSW coal fired stations will need to be kept online.

    Decisions that needed to be made over the last decade have not been made.

    It will be expensive but necessary

    On the question in general and Liddel in particular, from RenewEconomy via John Menadue: You only get one Alan Bond in a lifetime said Packer about Bond after buying ch 9 back for a steal after selling it to him for a bomb.

    But then came Turnbull.

    The proposal to extend the life of Liddell in increasingly looking like a proposal of breath-taking stupidity – a decision that would do the exact opposite to its stated purpose of boosting reliability and lowering costs. It would kill innovation and new investment, and lead to huge questions about probity and markets.

    https://johnmenadue.com/giles-parkinson-agl-bought-liddell-for-nothing-what-will-it-cost-turnbull/

  25. Barney in Go Dau @ #1165 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 12:31 pm

    Interesting article bemused.

    Having read last night’s debate it seemed like I was reading about a fixed system where no further improvements were possible.

    There was little about the lack and lag of infrastructure development placing pressure on our urban areas.

    What about decentralisation of our urban centres and what is required to facilitate this? (internet, transport links …)

    Governments are too reactionary, rather than demonstrating proactive ideas that facilitate growth.

    Land use practices are developing, as your article shows, yet we show a reluctance for change.

    Until governments start to look to the future in a rational and structured way debates about immigration numbers will persist.

    For some opposition to immigration will have racist motives but for most, I would suggest, it would be a reflection of Government inaction in properly planning and preparing for a growing society.

    Indeed.
    An interesting example is the company growing glasshouse tomatoes in the desert near Port Augusta. All solar powered including their desalination.
    Quite large scale and they have contracts to supply at least one major supermarket chain.
    If we stop wasteful practices and adopt new technology, we have a long way to go in improving our quantity and quality of output.

  26. ‘His relief in the moment expressed itself as arrogance. Here was a comprehensive victory over enemies, within and without. ‘

    Thanks for reposting that I would be interested to see a video.

    To me this reads as insecurity, the need for validation.
    If it was a recent behaviour it could be explained by his situation.

  30. Boerwar @ #1172 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 1:03 pm

    The other element of this Hurricane reporting season is that US Fed employees are banned from using the term ‘climate change’. It is interesting that there is enough energy in the systems to have three simultaneous hurricane systems on the go at the same time.

    Manipulation of public thought.

    Segue into John le Carré looking at Trump and the emergence of fascism in the ’30s

    “Something truly, seriously bad is happening and from my point of view we have to be awake to that,”

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/sep/07/john-le-carre-on-trump-something-truly-seriously-bad-is-happening

  31. ItzaDream

    The odd thing is that it was the Repugs side which kicked off the use of ‘climate change’. It sounded less scary than the previous “global warming”. Also by using the word change they can drag out the “The climate has always been changing blah blah…”

  32. adrian @ #1166 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 12:35 pm

    Everywhere in this country rational planning and foresight is held captive to vested interests and political expediency.

    Adrian, you’ll be interested and more depressed by this if yet unread.

    Australia needs key infrastructure investments but there is a lack of rigor in identifying and assessing them. A great deal of public money is involved but much of it is being wasted by bad policies and dubious projects across Australia; some of which will seriously disadvantage communities.
    A lack of rigor is not the only problem. There is unacceptable secrecy surrounding many projects; secrecy which undermines democratic accountability, erodes community trust and leaves everyone open to being misled and blindsided.

    With the main examples being the debacle that Sydney Metro is looking likely to be, and Newcastle Port privatisation ~

    https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-it-is-scandalous-how-infrastructure-spending-escapes-proper-scrutiny/

  33. poroti @ #1181 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 1:26 pm

    ItzaDream

    The odd thing is that it was the Repugs side which kicked off the use of ‘climate change’. It sounded less scary than the previous “global warming”. Also by using the word change they can drag out the “The climate has always been changing blah blah…”

    and Same Sex Marriage (an ABC directive to be employed) being more scary than Marriage Equality

  34. p
    Yep. That is why I use the term ‘global warming’. Incidentally, having established ‘climate change’ they went on to claim that the failure to use ‘global warming’ was a sign that the CAGW panic merchants had admitted defeat on the science.

  37. Itza

    Yep, I take on all your points on keeping one coal one going.

    As I said reluctant but I just don’t trust either of our major parties to make the required decisions to give me confidence.

  38. CTar1 @ #1187 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 1:33 pm

    As I said reluctant but I just don’t trust either of our major parties to make the required decisions to give me confidence.

    and on Liddel, apart from the dollars and cents, there’s this:

    In fact, Liddell is more likely to be the cause of a power emergency because of what AEMO describes as the potential for ageing coal generators to fail in the heat – and in last summer’s heatwave, Liddell was missing 1,000MW of its capacity due to problems with boiler tube leaks.

  41. Final from me – Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey proposing Turnbull’s playing with coal has regard not so much for consumers (when did he ever) but for the Cons political skullduggery of never achieving bipartisanship with Labor on energy.

    But it may well be that any offer of compromise by Labor is met by the Coalition simply moving the goalposts ever closer to coal-fired power, with the goal of portraying Labor as committed to plunging the entire country into darkness. After this week, it may well be the case that that is exactly what Turnbull wants to do. And the consumers and businesses of the 2020s be damned.

  42. As a South Aussie, I can only agree. While our growers use drip lines for trees and veges, over the border they still use channels and overhead sprinklers ffs. Adelaideans have decreased their garden-water usage by 50%, by ripping out or reducing the size of lawns, planting ‘water-wise’ ornamental plants and installing drip lines. Our up-river water hooligans could learn a lot from SA,

    bemused @ #1158 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 11:21 am

    I don’t want to provoke the Bore into more of his rants on last nights burning issue, but this is a timely article.

    This Tiny Country Feeds the World

    The Netherlands has become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like…

    As for Australia, well, when I visited Mildura about 10 years ago and saw the absolutely profligate waste of water with highly inefficient irrigation methods, I decided then and there that Australia doesn’t have a water shortage problem. It has a stupidity and wastage of water problem.

  45. Itza – Whether ‘Liddel’ is the one to keep if you’re going to do one I don’t know.

    Whatever is done at this late point is going to be dirtier than would have been required if sensible decisions had been made.

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #1192 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 1:48 pm

    As a South Aussie, I can only agree. While our growers use drip lines for trees and veges, over the border they still use channels and overhead sprinklers ffs. Adelaideans have decreased their garden-water usage by 50%, by ripping out or reducing the size of lawns, planting ‘water-wise’ ornamental plants and installing drip lines. Our up-river water hooligans could learn a lot from SA

    and look at Israel.

  48. Israeli irrigation depends to a major extent on (imported) fossil fuels used to generate energy to desalinate sea water.

    The Netherlands agriculture systems energy inputs (glasshouse heating and the like), ditto.

    To the extend that both are significant contributors to global warming, their agriculture systems are unsustainable.

    Ironically, the Netherlands is spending a motsa trying to keep rising sea water out of its agriculture systems. On current trends, there will be virtually no Netherlands agriculture sometime this millenium.

    In fact, there will virtually be no Netherlands.

    Israel itself is very vulnerable to rising sea levels over the next millenium. Apart from sea water intrusion into ground water tables and inundation of significant parts of its urban areas, Israel will have to find a solution for the 1.85 Palestinians who inhabit the Gaza Strip which will also disappear sometime this millenium.

    OTOH, the Dead Sea is likely to become very lively some time in the next millenium.

  49. Bw

    If those polls are correct, the NZ Greens have collapsed.

    I’ve always thought that environment management decisions became more contested on a political basis because we have a party who made it their main business.

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