YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Well ,the Crows got the job done last night.

    Mark Kenny says that the risk equation has now shifted for Turnbull. If marriage equality fails from here, he will get the blame no matter how far he back he was standing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/high-courts-postal-vote-decision-malcolm-turnbull-catches-a-break–now-for-the-hard-bit-20170907-gycnoo.html
    Michelle Grattan has a good look at the time Turnbull and Joyce are having.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-turnbulls-rush-for-an-energy-announceable-sows-confusion-83672
    The SMH editorial says on the postal survey “It is a devastating commentary on the current state of the nation that this exercise, for which taxpayers must shell out $122 million, has had to be conducted solely in order to convince the governing parties’ recalcitrants to back a measure which Australians, according to opinion polls, already overwhelmingly endorse.” It’s quite a bake.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-plebiscites-thin-victory-20170907-gycwsl.html
    David Crowe writes that a new clash looms over the postal vote on same-sex marriage as the Turnbull government holds ¬urgent talks to set new rules on the claims that can be made on either side of the eight-week debate, triggering fears the strict campaign laws would shut down free speech. Google.
    /national-affairs/next-battle-will-be-on-samesex-marriage-campaign-rules/news-story/1338c6b1e30cc0e4a42d7a9d1faa8628
    Katharine Murphy has analysed Turnbull’s reaction to the HC decision.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/07/malcolm-turnbulls-relief-palpable-as-he-dodges-same-sex-marriage-bullet
    What now? Judith Ireland looks at what happens next after the HC decision.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-postal-survey-what-happens-now-20170907-gycril.html
    Gay Alcorn writes that MPs have resisted public opinion on same-sex marriage for a decade. The reasons are complicated, but new research shows they are gradually being won over.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/08/australias-politicians-are-late-to-the-marriage-equality-party-but-they-are-finally-arriving
    John Hewson says it’s time to shirtfront CEOs over our high energy prices.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/john-hewson-why-voters-need-to-ask-questions-about-their-power-bills-20170907-gych2k.html
    Subsidies to extend the life of coal-fired power might be popular within the Coalition, but industry isn’t interested. They’d rather just have proper policy that would open the floodgates to the many cleaner, replacement supply projects they have on their drawing boards. Google.
    http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/coal-power-subsidies-no-thanks–just-policy-please-20170906-gyceir
    The true cost of keeping Liddell open.
    https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-keeping-the-liddell-power-plant-open-83634

  2. The SmearStralian is wetting its pants over energy policy this morning.

    And they have identified the cause of the problem. Bill Shorten.

  3. Section 3 . . .

    A fast-mutating strain of the flu is defying medical experts’ efforts to stop it and has already killed at least 73 people in Australia this year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/australias-killer-flu-calls-for-more-immunisations-as-virus-mutates-20170907-gyd2fm.html
    Trump could end up creating turmoil in world financial markets if he gets his way in repatriating trillions of dollars.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/if-trump-gets-his-way-expect-a-dollar-hurricane-to-rip-through-global-markets-20170906-gycdg7.html
    This theology lecturer says that politicians must get real about gambling reform. He has a point.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/politicians-must-get-real-about-gambling-reform-20170904-gya63v.html
    We are not at all well placed to meet our Paris emissions reduction target.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/08/record-drop-in-electricity-emissions-cancelled-out-by-rises-in-other-sectors
    Amazon looks set to launch in Australia before the Christmas rush.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/amazon-could-launch-in-australia-in-next-60-days-says-citi-20170907-gyd3pz.html
    That lovely man Steve Bannon has lashed the Catholic church for wanting to “fill their churches with illegal aliens”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/steve-bannon-says-catholic-church-wants-illegal-aliens-to-fill-the-churches-20
    The Liddell power station at the centre of the political fight over energy is operating at below half its rated capacity, and would present “mammoth problems” for any company seeking to extend its life, according to a former senior Macquarie Generation engineer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/baseload-investment-scheme-could-keep-coal-alive-but-liddell-power-station-has-mammoth-problems-20170907-gycspc.html
    Thousands of people who turn up to vote at this Saturday’s NSW council elections could be told they are not enrolled or registered in a different area thanks to the federal government’s same-sex marriage postal survey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/confusion-tipped-at-council-poll-due-to-marriage-survey-20170906-gyc2mp.html
    Theresa May has caused further ill will in Brussels by rejecting an invitation to address the European parliament in public, EU sources have said, instead insisting she will only talk to its leaders behind closed doors.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/07/theresa-may-european-parliament-brussels-eu
    Harold Mitchell laments the role of law and lawyer MPs in government these days.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/governments-should-stop-courting-disaster-and-get-on-with-governing-20170906-gycej3.html

  4. Section 4 . . .

    Peter Dutton is determined to entrench a deep rift into our society between those who care and those who hate- and he’s got a few mates!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/peter-dutton-and-those-unaustralian-lawyers,10693
    Western Australian households have been left relatively unscathed by the McGowan government’s first budget, but the big end of town will bear the brunt of repairing the state’s disastrous finances.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-state-budget-2017-miners-big-business-take-the-hit-in-mcgowans-first-budget-20170907-gyclp4.html
    Turnbull is overhauling the top ranks of the federal public service, naming Immigration boss Michael Pezzullo as head of the new Home Affairs Department. And another of our favourites, Kathryn Campbell has been booted from Human Services.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/mike-pezzullo-a-winner-in-public-service-shake-up-unveiled-by-malcolm-turnbull-20170907-gycl8y.html
    Canberrans must accept the reality that while NSW and other states have anti-consorting laws aimed at outlaw motorcycle gangs, the lack of such laws in the ACT makes it a haven for bikies and increasing violent crimes across our suburbs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/act-needs-anticonsorting-laws-for-bikies-now-before-someone-dies-20170907-gycl0o.html
    This is hardly surprising.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/09/06/trumps-mafia-connections-excluded-him-from-an-australian-casino-deal_a_23199578/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  5. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    An interesting contribution from Cathy Wilcox after yesterday’s postal survey ruling.

    John Shakespeare with the problems energy policy brings.

    Ouch! Cathy Wilcox hits Turnbull right between the eyes with this one.

    John Shakespeare farewells Turnbull as he leaves for overseas.

    David Pope on the High Court decision.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Great stuff from Peter Nicholson who we haven’t seen for quite a while.

    More from Nicholson.


    Scary stuff from Glen Le Lievre.

    Some perspective from Alan Moir.

    Andrew Dyson with the China NK relationship.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Mark Knight has Dutton doing his stuff at tonight’s AFL final at the MCG.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1fba98c9d29ca460734668ebf61910f5?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka prepares us for the next round at the High Court.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6b80196721741083a62b3162e30d1ea9

  6. Another “Stand by your man” article by LaTingle. Something about Malcolm now having room to push coal before pivoting to renewables – or something like that. You know it makes sense (if you’re mad).

  7. Steve777

    Since pants have been worn by businesswomen for many years, yet kilts have never quite taken on for men, I’d say the sensible compromise would be pants for all.

  8. Section 2 of the Dawn Patrol went into moderation so I”ll split it and try again.

    Section 2 . . .

    Meanwhile the only Australian company with a stated potential interest in buying and keeping AGL’s ageing Liddell coal-fired power station open beyond 2022 is facing a number of allegations of environmental mismanagement.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/08/mismanagement-alleged-against-only-company-interested-in-liddell-power-station
    Rob Burgess says we shouldn’t waste taxpayer dollars on worthless coal assets.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/09/06/aemo-liddel-coal-clean-energy-target/
    The Liberal Party’s tussles over climate and energy policy – as distinct from denying the science itself – go back some 30 years, writes Marc Hudson from the University of Manchester.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-partys-30-years-of-policy-tussles-over-climate-change,10691
    Tiernan Brady outlines the Irish experience on changes to SSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/same-sex-marriage-the-irish-experience-20170906-gycg58.html
    Sean Nicholls writes that as the elections loom there is still every chance that a significant number of property developers will be elected to local government across NSW. There is more work to be done by the state government to close the loopholes up, he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/developers-like-salim-mehajer-could-still-be-elected-to-council-despite-reforms-20170906-gybqng.html
    There are some disturbing trends in the retail sales figures released recently by the ABS. Everything is flat other than booze sales.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/happy-hour-at-bottle-shops-as-shoppers-buy-booze-and-little-else-20170907-gycmx0.html

  9. Kathryn Campbell will leave the massive Human Services Department to become secretary of Social Services.

    Not much of an improvement for welfare , from this robotic creature.

  10. The COALition arguments for Liddell power station are quite pathetic. In the past they opposed renewables because they were uneconomic. New coal plants are now so uneconomic that nobody will fund them, yet they are still supported. Turnbull’s power policy is a mad combination of ideology and subservience to a few mining billionaires. Labor should not “tactically” support the Liberals on this policy. It is a dead parrott.

  11. Australia’s Brigalow forests almost gone in 60 years

    “At the start of the 1950s, Brigalow forests were almost intact and were important habitat for more than 1000 other species of plants, as well as important habitat for wildlife,” Dr Fensham said.

    Brigalow trees, a silver-leaved wattle, grew to around 20 meters tall and formed dense forests. Their rapid clearing began when bull-dozers became readily available.

    Since then, an average of almost 200,000 hectares of Brigalow forest has been cleared every year for 60 years.

    Dr Fensham said only eight per cent of Brigalow forests remained, and many species faced extinction as a result.

    https://www.uq.edu.au/news/node/121015

  12. Australia is being taught an old lesson all over again. The delay, the cost and the years of bitter debate are worth it according to the warriors of no to remind Australians that change in this country is hard, hard work.

    This is nothing new but it’s marking us now. We’re a middle-of-the-road country with ambitions for change caught in a political culture that’s come to see its mission as preventing the future.

    Equal marriage is just the latest occasion for displaying the clout of the reactionaries. Though they know, in the end, they probably won’t be able to bring change to a halt, they want us to know the ground rules here: change in this country only comes with a great deal of pain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/07/the-judges-verdict-on-equal-marriage-change-in-australia-only-comes-with-pain?CMP=share_btn_tw

  13. Lyle Shelton‏
    @LyleShelton

    It’s still on. A referendum on freedoms & radical LGBTIQ sex education in schools.

    Cameron Malcher‏ @Capitan_Typo · 11h11 hours ago
    It’s just frustrating and tiring that the refutation of bullshit takes more effort than the peddling of it

  14. lizzie @ #1059 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 7:34 am

    Steve777

    Since pants have been worn by businesswomen for many years, yet kilts have never quite taken on for men, I’d say the sensible compromise would be pants for all.

    Lizzie, considering things anatomical, I think men should be wearing kilts or the like, and women the trousers, especially considering men’s DNA factories need to be lower than body temperature to be efficient, and an undescended testis has a higher risk of malignancy. They are just meant to be free and easy. Is it fair to think that hot climate countries more often see men in loose clothing and things more caftan. I often wear sarongs and things Indian around the house; think what you like, I don’t give a rats. Gentlemen, if you haven’t, you don’t know what comfort is. Tight whities do you no favour.

    Matters of access , especially for / to the ladies, are another matter entirely.

  15. Tingle’s column is simply trying too hard to put Turnbull in a position of control that it looses all credibility.
    Sure in QT, Labor pursued Joyce while Turnbull wanted to talk energy, but earlier in the week he wanted to talk North Korea.

    If the energy shortfall problems as reported by the AEMO, are in the next 5 years: then why is delaying the closure of Liddel proposed, given it won’t close until 2022?

    Liddel is simply a very expensive, socialist tool for Turnbull to negotiate with his right wing backbench, it isn’t an energy policy.

    Labor may have been flat footed simply because the idea is so ludicrous.

  16. ItzaDream @ #1068 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 8:20 am

    lizzie @ #1059 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 7:34 am

    Steve777

    Since pants have been worn by businesswomen for many years, yet kilts have never quite taken on for men, I’d say the sensible compromise would be pants for all.

    Lizzie, considering things anatomical, I think men should be wearing kilts or the like, and women the trousers, especially considering men’s DNA factories need to be lower than body temperature to be efficient, and an undescended testis has a higher risk of malignancy. They are just meant to be free and easy. Is it fair to think that hot climate countries more often see men in loose clothing and things more caftan. I often wear sarongs and things Indian around the house; think what you like, I don’t give a rats. Gentlemen, if you haven’t, you don’t know what comfort is. Tight whities do you no favour.

    Matters of access , especially for / to the ladies, are another matter entirely.

    rat’s

  17. ItzaDream

    I only meant at school. After that, I agree with freedom of choice.
    In hot climates the European styles are ridiculous for both men and women.

  18. In contrast the last 2 paragraphs of Hewson’s column on energy

    “However, our political leaders must now reap what they have sown. They have given voters every reason to disbelieve anything they say or promise. They have created a unique set of circumstances, with their inability to ensure lower power prices, together with their failure to address other key elements of the cost of living, for a substantial protest vote, building on the one in three that didn’t vote for one of the major parties at the last federal election.

    Short of controlling electricity and gas prices, the government is now powerless to deal with the issue effectively in the near term. The issue demands apolitical leadership.”


  19. CTar1

    frednk / zoid

    Six or seven years ago there was a lot of discussion about the movement in the age of the population comparing China and India and the implications for the future.

    Thanks for the links.

    I just can’t get over the difference time has made.

    I can see the power lines; the apartments; the power stations; the high speed trains, the stations with no people on any of the platforms, the roads with a few cars.

    Where are the people; where are the kids?

  20. More from BK’s splendid effort ~~ Tiernan Brady is the executive director of the Equality Campaign, the marriage equality campaign in Australia. He was the political director of the Irish Yes Equality campaign.

    He speaks about the Irish experience, and the crux of the campaign that was to remain dignified about an issue that at its core was about the dignity of the individual.

    What struck me yesterday, and Lizzie (iirc) commented on it at the time, was just how undignified Turnbull was in his acceptance of the HC decision. He crowed and made it a divisive political issue in the worst snarky way possible. It was a shameful use of others for his own purpose.

    The campaigners were not really campaigners at all, they were just the people on our midst asking to be seen and recognised. They were not just LGBTQI people by any means. The parents of lesbian and gay people grabbed the imagination of the communities across the island as they “came out” as the most amazing advocates for their children – and why wouldn’t they? Their dignity won the country over. No matter what was said to them – terrible things were spoken about gay people – they held their heads high with wide smiles and a hand outstretched.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/same-sex-marriage-the-irish-experience-20170906-gycg58.html

  21. lizzie @ #1071 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 8:26 am

    ItzaDream

    I only meant at school. After that, I agree with freedom of choice.
    In hot climates the European styles are ridiculous for both men and women.

    Sorry Lizzie, missed the thread. School uniforms are an interesting topic, very gender confirming, even to the point of hair styles, and entrenching conformity over individualism. Against which is the principle to remove the temptation to competitive dressing, and inequality.

    I’m childless, so watch the debates from afar.

  22. My big frustration with school uniform is that it seems you can no longer just buy things off the rack – everything has to have the school logo on it. (I assume that there’s money in this for the schools).

    Schools should set colours – e.g. “green jumper, black pants” – and nothing more.

  23. zoomster @ #1076 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 8:47 am

    My big frustration with school uniform is that it seems you can no longer just buy things off the rack – everything has to have the school logo on it. (I assume that there’s money in this for the schools).

    Schools should set colours – e.g. “green jumper, black pants” – and nothing more.

    The footy gear for out firsts was all white, with the school logo sewn on the left breast. Mum used to say I don’t know whose idea this was, but it wasn’t a woman’s.

  24. IaD

    Perhaps…

    Logos are a bit like shields with the standard emblazoned on the shield.

    Shields were held in the left hand because the right hand was the sword hand.

    Shields therefore also protected the most vital of vital organs – the heart.

    The heart symbolizes strength, courage, loyalty, fealty.

    You could sew the logo on the left cheek of the uniform’s pants. It might have a large impact. But perhaps not the sort of impact you are seeking with your logo investment.

  25. I agree with zoomster about logos. I also agree regarding the rules on conformity. The only real advantage of uniforms has always been two things. Identifying with the School and saving money on clothes buying.

    Uniforms by necessity are used more than one day at a go. Those with no uniforms clothes are changed daily and thus you need more of them and costs more to wash as well.

  26. From that conversation article.

    One of the expectations in the ongoing debate over marriage reform in Australia is that all views should be respected.

    But if we want to uphold the values of the enlightenment and of deliberative democracy, then whatever side of the debate you are on, demanding views be treated with respect is a flawed idea.

    This may sound contradictory, but it goes to a point too often missed in such circumstances: people are worthy of respect, ideas are not.

    This is exactly why the religious freedom argument is wrong. Its about not respecting people under the guise of respecting a religious belief.

  27. alfonslopeztena: Have bakers a constitutional right to discriminate against Heteros?
    Against Republicans?
    Against Whites?
    Against Christians?
    Against Trump? twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/…

    On the Trump baker case

  28. Socrates (Block)
    Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 7:40 am
    Comment #1063
    The COALition arguments for Liddell power station are quite pathetic. In the past they opposed renewables because they were uneconomic. New coal plants are now so uneconomic that nobody will fund them, yet they are still supported. Turnbull’s power policy is a mad combination of ideology and subservience to a few mining billionaires. Labor should not “tactically” support the Liberals on this policy. It is a dead parrott.

    Socrates

    I think we can all agree it is a “dead parrot”. A thoroughly decomposed dead parrot. But Labor does have to think tactically about how they are going to respond to it. The government is in the early stages of ramping up a giant scare campaign about electricity reliability and it has the potential to bite very hard, especially if we do suffer significant blackouts at critical times before the next election as some say we will.

    IMO the re-election of a Turnbull government would be far worse for energy and climate policy than any tactical measures Labor may employ to make sure that doesn’t occur. This is not a time for purity. This is a time to go for the throat with every weapon Labor can muster to finally get rid of these destructive bastards and if that involves a bit of creative lying about their intentions for coal that is ok by me.

  29. guytaur @ #1088 Friday, September 8th, 2017 – 9:07 am

    alfonslopeztena: Have bakers a constitutional right to discriminate against Heteros?
    Against Republicans?
    Against Whites?
    Against Christians?
    Against Trump? twitter.com/mjs_dc/status/…

    On the Trump baker case

    Heterosexauls has no bloody idea about discrimination, or its subtleties. Whether it’s the plumber or the electrician, there often comes a point where you recognise them recognising that this is not a nuclear family. One the other hand, it isn’t hard to find service that is generous and dignified (that word again). Or maybe it’s just the money.

    Hotel check-ins are a thing. You can tell a lot about a country by how they deal with the check-in process. We never make an issue, and abide by the mores of the country we visit. I can say that Germany is probably the highest on the list on never batting an eyelid. And the Netherlands.

  30. zoomster, if you’re still here ~~ You’ve been in the USA – do uniforms or not influence the emergence of individuality and creativity? Or too multifactorial.

  31. Poroti

    Whether a first home buyer or not, the amount of income now required to service loans is Astronomical. People are seriously one pay cheques away From financial hardship

  32. Zoomster

    I fully agree re school uniforms.

    There was always a bit of a thing re girls uniforms ie special for the school, (summer only)but boys uses to be able to wear standard grey shorts/trousers, grey, white or blue shirts from the shops and for the older kids you could invest in a school tie or maybe socks. Even standard blazers were buyable and I recall people sewing on the badge/logo in a pocket.

    The girls winter uniform was usually standard too white shirt and a blue, green or brown box pleat tunic plus a tie. Even the summer uniforms were cheaper since sewing patterns were made available and many mothers ran them up at home. The school uniform was therefore a cheap option for most parents. The Victorian primary uniforms were great for little girls – buy green, blue, brown or red gingham dresses from Target. – The delightful ABC program Little Lunch has the girls in just such dresses and they look both cute and neat and not expensive.

    Now it is NOT.

    Time to fix this

  33. BW

    Its not just booking into hotels. How many places can a gay couple kiss hello goodbye as heterosexuals do in public. Let alone hold hands if they want.

    Every time an act of intimacy is an of risk of safety.

    Just like for woman safety is at risk every time you walk out of front door or a trades person is needed and you have not “straightened up” the house.

  34. I can Speak to my own childrens experience wearing school uniforms. they liked not having to decide what to wear each day. And lo and behold, they all have work uniforms they have to abide by as well. That too, makes their life much easier.

  35. guytaur

    The MAIN value of school uniforms is to stop kids competing amongst themselves making the kids from poorer homes feel inadequate. If you do NOT have a uniform you will have kids wearing $2,000 sneakers to school and carrying Armani school bags. These are examples of which I KNOW and it is especially a problem with the international students who just love their $2000 air jordans with tiger print design.

  36. One of the expectations in the ongoing debate over marriage reform in Australia is that all views should be respected.

    Why should all views be respected? When did we agree to this? Was there a public vote about it?

Comments are closed.