YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

  1. Boer

    ‘How do you think that someone achieves a racist result without behaving in a racist fashion while the behaviour also ‘Looks’ racist? What does behaviour that ‘looks’ racist but isn’t really racist look like, exactly?’

    I’ve explained this – in fact, that was my intent, to explain how something can look racist when it isn’t. If you don’t ‘get’ it – other posters made it clear they did, so the problem does seem to be yours – it’s because you’re determined to be insulted.

  2. Z

    ‘Where is the fresh water coming from? We are running out of the stuff with 25 million people.’

    No, we’re not. We’re not even doing much of the stuff other countries take as normal, such as recycling. In most cases, we don’t even use recycled water for big water use areas such as golf courses and sporting grounds, where potable water isn’t needed. And our use of irrigation water – let alone the crops we use it to irrigate – is far from efficient.

    Most of the fish fauna in the MDB has gone. Trees that require regular watering are dying. The Coorong is turning into a salt puddle. It has lost around 80,000 shorebirds. Groundwater tables in many of our irrigation and pastoral areas are falling. When all these things (amongst numerous other things) have been fixed, THEN we can start thinking about how to add to the pressures by adding tens of millions more people to them.

    ‘Where are we going to import the food from, because we will go from net food exporters to massive food importers.’

    You named the number – why not stop immigration at the point where we produce enough food to feed ourselves?’

    Because um… food is one of our main exports. And if we don’t export stuff people overseas who eat it now will get hungry. And we will not have the foreign exchange to buy things like… cars which we no longer make here.

    At present, with 25 million people, we export 66% of what we produce, which suggests we could at least double our population.

    ‘Where are people going to live?

    In monstrous towers or will we multiply the current urban spread by ten?’

    Our cities are amongst the least densely populated in the world. My TV is chockers with people who live in a two bedroom apartment in a high rise building and see that as not only normal but highly desirable (they seem to regard the suburbs with dread and the country as worse).

    Oh, I see. People will want to live even closer together than they do now? Really? Twice as close as they do now with half the space that they have now?’

    ‘And, of course, we could decentralise.’

    Well, let’s start letting in large numbers of migrants WHEN we have decentralized.

    ‘…as I said, I don’t know what the figure ‘should’ be. But doubling the population, at least, would seem feasible – and we’re a long way from ‘full’.’

    You left out a few things. You OK with our current extinction rate? Are you OK with our current unemployment rate? Are you OK with the trend decline in our soils? Are you OK that our current CO2 emissions are helping to destroy the Great Barrier Reef?

    You seem to think that adding more people to all of the pressures will somehow magically fix the problems all by themselves. When logic dictates that doubling the pressure will increase our troubles with sustainability. Not decrease them.

  3. Steve777

    I have 27 candidates for three seats in my Council ward.

    3 Libs,
    3 Lab
    3 Greens,
    3 local team
    rest independents

    Piker, we’ve got 48 here at Armidale Regional council elections, two sleeps to go.

    We’ve got Greens and Labor above the line, neither of whom are likely to get even their first on the list across the line.

    Everyone is sick to death of the previous council, and most, if not all, will vote below the line. Anyone but the previous do-nothing council members.

    My wife is a (new) candidate, and has a better than good chance of getting in. Go Maria!

    But it has been bloody cold standing in the freezing wind on the footpath outside the Pre-poll site, handing out HTV cards.

    You need to rug up, that’s for sure. It should be only one week of pre-poll, not two.

  4. z
    You still have not explained how a behaviour can have a racist result without being racist and behaving in a racist manner.

    If you mean to say that as far as you are concerned, I am not a racist, why not just say so?

  5. zoomster @ #1000 Thursday, September 7th, 2017 – 9:16 pm

    ‘Where is the fresh water coming from? We are running out of the stuff with 25 million people.’

    No, we’re not. We’re not even doing much of the stuff other countries take as normal, such as recycling. In most cases, we don’t even use recycled water for big water use areas such as golf courses and sporting grounds, where potable water isn’t needed. And our use of irrigation water – let alone the crops we use it to irrigate – is far from efficient.

    ‘Where are we going to import the food from, because we will go from net food exporters to massive food importers.’

    You named the number – why not stop immigration at the point where we produce enough food to feed ourselves?

    At present, with 25 million people, we export 66% of what we produce, which suggests we could at least double our population.

    ‘Where are people going to live?

    In monstrous towers or will we multiply the current urban spread by ten?’

    Our cities are amongst the least densely populated in the world. My TV is chockers with people who live in a two bedroom apartment in a high rise building and see that as not only normal but highly desirable (they seem to regard the suburbs with dread and the country as worse).

    And, of course, we could decentralise.

    …as I said, I don’t know what the figure ‘should’ be. But doubling the population, at least, would seem feasible – and we’re a long way from ‘full’.

    Pollyanna. So no room for the natural environment in Australia. Just cities and farms and mines.

  6. don

    We may have passed each other like ships in the night.

    We drove through Armidale the other day. The Council polls were on. There were a whole lot of ribbons strapped to some railing and around half a dozen how to vote card handers-out on the footpath.

    If so, can heartily concur on one matter. It was freezing.

    And also if so, best wishes to Maria. She has a loyal and doughty consort.

  7. it is very frustrating that some key policy areas can be commandeered by right wing loonies like hansen – and now smith – major parties need to address all areas in a moderate rhetoric that disarms extremists

  8. Zoomster

    “But doubling the population, at least, would seem feasible – and we’re a long way from ‘full’.”

    ————-

    I have no idea why filling all areas of the earth with the maximum number of humans is considered desirable.

    I remember in the 70’s when “environmentalists” were worried about the impacts of over-population argueing with a Catholic priest who thought it was our duty to maximise the population of the world as that was to the “greater glory of God”.

    I know the arguement escaped me then, too.

    But obviously zoomster is on his wavelength.

  9. It’s Time

    No. Everything I described can happen in exactly the same envelope we use at present.

    We can use water far more efficiently.

    We produce NOW enough food to feed twice as many people – no changes needed there.

    Our cities are relatively low density, even compared with those in comparable countries, so they don’t need to spread.

  10. Actually, swamprat, I have no particular position on what Australia’s population should be – but to argue we can’t take more people because that’s unsustainable is a nonsense. No country has a sustainable population.

    I’d like to see us discussing limiting the numbers of human beings on the planet. I certainly like to see us discussing how we could live more sustainably. No one seems interested in those discussions, however.

  11. zoomster @ #1017 Thursday, September 7th, 2017 – 9:47 pm

    It’s Time

    No. Everything I described can happen in exactly the same envelope we use at present.

    We can use water far more efficiently.

    We produce NOW enough food to feed twice as many people – no changes needed there.

    Our cities are relatively low density, even compared with those in comparable countries, so they don’t need to spread.

    What makes you think the current envelope is sustainable in perpetuity? Eroded soils and waterways. Noxious exotic plants and animals. Diminishing fisheries. And no vested interests so the Murray Darling basin agreements are going swimmingly.

  12. … a Catholic priest who thought it was our duty to maximise the population of the world as that was to the “greater glory of God”.

    He probably meant maximise the number of Catholics.

  13. Boerwar
    don

    We may have passed each other like ships in the night.

    We drove through Armidale the other day. The Council polls were on. There were a whole lot of ribbons strapped to some railing and around half a dozen how to vote card handers-out on the footpath.

    If so, can heartily concur on one matter. It was freezing.

    And also if so, best wishes to Maria. She has a loyal and doughty consort.

    Thank you, you are very kind!

    46 years and counting…..

    Armidale is the sort of place you drive through at about two in the morning on the way to somewhere important. Great for the locals, but for everyone else, not so much.

    Yeah, the ribbons are multi-coloured, and are meant to represent support for kids who have been abused.

    Trust me, if you are on duty, put on long johns and a big heavy coat. Put a couple of thermos bottles full of coffee and tea in your backpack, some favourite biscuits in a plastic bag, take a cryptic crossword or three, buy the SMH to read, and duck off for a takeaway sandwich at Moxham’s Bakery after one pm when the voter numbers reach as close to zero as makes no difference. I chase the sun, and since the polling place faces east, you end up half way out on the road by three pm, dodging the fortunately infrequent traffic, because the former library throws a solid shadow. After 3 pm, you are relying on good insulation and mitochondria. As well as thoughts of comfort food and a double scotch when you get home.

    All good fun, and others on this blog have had it much worse. I can’t imagine doorknocking, which I know many here have done, week in and week out. It must be soul destroying.

    What is interesting is that you have no status, as a HTV person. A bit like those poor unfortunates who operate out of an Indian call centre. In real life, you have friends and a job and respect – but not on the street, handing out HTV. I’ll never brush past a phalanx of HTV people again without having a chat, that’s for sure.

  14. ‘What makes you think the current envelope is sustainable in perpetuity?’

    Nothing is sustainable in perpetuity…I’d be the first to say the human race is Doomed unless we do something rather clever, and we don’t look like doing that.

    No country is sustainable. So to argue that one country can’t take more people because it’s not sustainable is a nonsense.

  15. Comparing population densities between countries is absurd.

    One only has to travel from Adelaide to Darwin ,which I recently did, to see desert for almost the entire distance.

  16. C@Tmomma
    Also, the major political parties,well, no, it’s basically the Liberals, brazenly use some so-called ‘Independents’ as preference funnels and vote catchers.

    Thanks for responding Cat. Yeah that nonsense is happening here in Newcastle as well. When the Liberal team imploded, suddenly there a team of “Independents” emerged, and funnily enough, they’re all associated with the Liberal Party.

  17. swamprat

    Which is why I used the population densities of the eastern States, particularly Victoria. But it was irrelevant anyway – the discussion was around whether or not Bhutan was unsustainable, and it is evident from its level of imports of essentials that it is, regardless of its population density.

  18. Zoomster

    “No country is sustainable. So to argue that one country can’t take more people because it’s not sustainable is a nonsense.”

    ——-

    That is not logical, with respect.

    No country is sustainable: – it is a question of the earth being sustainable. country boundaries are arbitrary. Despite that countries have a greater or lesser degree of contributing to sustainability of the earth. e.g. Singapore is a city-state within a wider region. It cannot be expected to be self-sufficient but can be a part of a sustainable world.

    So to argue that one country can’t take more people because it’s not sustainable is a nonsense.: – for thehuman population to maintain itself in a sustainable way on the earth it will require, amongst other things, for sufficient space for other species to survive (indefinitely) and therefore their eco-systems. This must result in some places (countries) being differently developed than other places for global impacts.

    Australia is an ancient land with poor soils and very low rainfalls but with many diverse eco-systems and unique species. It has been managed sustainably by its aboriginal popuation for many millenia.

  19. Steve777, despite Swamprat knowing what this up-named priest was thinking, I think you are probably right. ‘The greater glory of God’ the priest was referring to was his God, the Catholic God, not Allah, not Budha, or any other of the past or present Gods that people believe in and therefore his intent was to maximise the number of Catholics.

  20. shellbell
    Thanks for the transcript.
    Am I right in thinking the following:

    No judgement was made on standing.

    So it appears that the court determined the test set forth (urgent and necessary) was either was satisfied
    or
    that the only person that needs to be satisfied is the finance minister and

    and

    that the advance can be used for matter’ outside the ordinary annual service of government
    or
    that the survey falls within the ordinary business of government.

    Question 4 seems to strongly imply that the former finding was that the survey does fall within ordinary business of the government, otherwise the question would arise , and the court holds it doesn’t.

  21. PeeBee @1o:38 & Swamprat earlier. Yes, Swamprat didn’t see my sarcasm sign*. I am down in the 2016 census as a Catholic, I still identify even if it’s ages since I believed. That Priest was typical of attitudes I remember from decades past. Heathens were OK but they had to be converted (and Protestants too).

    And the best Catholic jokes are told by those inside the Catholic ‘beltway’.
    ———-
    * sarcasm sign: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SPmxsRDSmTc

  22. Why are you leaving out the footprints involved in maintaining cities?

    (a) collecting, holding and distributing fresh water. Huge extra-urban footprint impacts already.
    (b) transport infrastructure between cities and other urbs. Australia has nearly one million km of roads, for example.
    (c) waste discharge. This varies from landfill to CO2 to sewage to plastics in the oceans. Etc.

    Because I was typing on a train and needed to simplify. These things are significant but the single largest footprint is the result of a meat centred diet.

  23. I’m in China again after 20 years, The affect of economic development and one child policy for 30 years is astounding.

    Where are the kids; where are the people? I can’t get over how empty the roads are. Can’t get over the development. The speed of the trains is one thing; how many you pass going the other way is another. They must have 100’s of the things.

    Look at the demographics;one or two kids has caught on; in 20 years time this place is going to be like japan; abandoned infrastructure all over the place.

    And the pollution; now that wind and solar is cheaper anyone who thinks coal has a future are full of it. Anyone who thinks the China boom is going to go on forever; get over here and have a look.

    China in this century is going to be a very very different place.

  24. @frednk

    No idea what u talking about.

    I was there 2015 no problem(soon heading back there again). And there was plenty of kids, and all my wife’s friends gone back to China.

  25. zoidlord
    There is no problems. I would now describe the place now as very European; with funny writing.

    It was the lack of people that I noticed; and it sent me off thinking about the demographics and what the end consequence of the one child policy would be. Very large ageing population and then a reduction there can be no other outcome without immigration.

  26. zoidlord
    If your commenting on the pollution. Only two place where I have seen the sun fading because of pollution. Here and Jakarta. China will do something about it; they have cancelled the build of several coal fired stations already.

  27. Very different from what I seen Fred.

    Pollution is only major factor in Beijing and so forth, Chengdu, Shenzhen and others are mostly fine.

    Also there is no more one child policy, and last I checked there were many kids including my relatives and friends in China.

    Everyone wants everyone to have kids.

    I stayed for 3 months.

    Also with Japan there is a problem of not having kids.

    Asia is my favourite topic (China/Japan mostly).

    Been to Japan 3 times.

  28. Trump Jr. Blames Hillary Clinton for His June Meeting with a Russian Lawyer

    The new reason, according to Donald Trump, Jr.’s statement to the Senate Judiciary Committee, that he met with the Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya in June of 2016 during the U.S. presidential election was because… wait for it, you need to sit down… he was worried about Hillary Clinton’s fitness for office.

    Are the Trumps really this stupid that they think by pointing at Hillary Clinton they can avoid being caught? If so, they have no business being near the White House.

    But also. Who came up with the idea of making Hillary Clinton’s fitness for office the excuse. That sounds exactly like something President Trump would say, given his penchant for projection of his own glaring issues.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/07/donald-trump-jr-tells-senate-story-june-meeting-russian-lawyer.html

  29. FBI director sees no evidence of interference in Russia probe

    FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Thursday he has not “detected any whiff of interference” into the ongoing investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

    Speaking publicly for the first time since being confirmed as head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Wray also told an audience at the Intelligence and National Security Summit that he has confidence in Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating whether President Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia during the election.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/07/fbi-director-sees-evidence-interference-russia-probe.html

  30. Top Senate Investigator Says Russia Facebook Ad Campaign May Be The Tip Of The Iceberg

    The top ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), is warning that Russia’s six figure ad spending to spreading propaganda during the 2016 election may be the tip of the iceberg.

    While the vast majority of Americans still get their news from television, social media is a great place for Russia to influence the discussion on cable news and get their false information into the mainstream media. Russia’s involvement in the election might not have been limited to helping and potentially colluding with Trump.

    Sen. Warner is probably right. The worst is yet to come, but the Facebook ads alone were an act of war against American democracy.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/07/top-senate-investigator-russia-facebook-ad-campaign-tip-iceberg.html

  31. Republicans Are Coming Unglued As House GOP Mounts A Rebellion Against Paul Ryan

    The Washington Post reported:

    Several influential House conservatives are privately plotting ways to use the legislative calendar this fall to push their hard-line agenda — including quiet discussions about possibly mounting a leadership challenge to House Speaker Paul D. Ryan.

    The group has gone so far as to float the idea of recruiting former House speaker Newt Gingrich or former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum as potential replacements for Ryan (R-Wis.) should there be a rebellion. The Constitution does not require that an elected member of the House serve as speaker.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/07/republicans-coming-unglued-house-gop-mounts-rebellion-paul-ryan.html

  32. Trump’s Russia Problem Grows As Senator Strongly Hints That Trump Jr. Lied To The Senate

    Senator Chris Coons (D-Del), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, sent out a statute on giving false statements to Congress after Donald Trump, Jr. spoke with Senate staff Thursday.

    Donald Trump, Jr. used his time with the Senate to blame Hillary Clinton for his meeting with the Russian lawyer during the campaign, claiming he was open to dirt on her from the Russians because he worried that she was not fit for office. This was, however, a different excuse than the Trump White House offered.

    Sen. Coons warned on Wednesday, “Anyone who testifies in front of a Senate committee is under the restrictions of a statute that says if they attempt to mislead Congress, there are legal consequences.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/07/member-sen-judiciary-quietly-sends-statute-giving-false-statements-don-jrs-interview.html

  33. British reporter mind-boggled by Trump chaos: ‘Impossible to cover every single thing without going mad’

    When Jon Sopel was assigned as the BBC’s North American editor in spring 2014, he and his wife were most concerned about the weather conditions in Washington, D.C. — but now he’s starting to worry about his mental health.

    “It is impossible to cover every single thing happening at the moment without going mad,” Sopel wrote for the Evening Standard. Or, as someone put it to me, reporting on this President is like trying to put your mouth over a fire hydrant and catching every drop of water.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/british-reporter-mind-boggled-by-trump-chaos-impossible-to-cover-every-single-thing-without-going-mad/

  34. frednk / zoid

    Six or seven years ago there was a lot of discussion about the movement in the age of the population comparing China and India and the implications for the future.

    The general trend was that the higher birth rate in India would favour it in the future in having many more younger people available.

    Many concerns were raised about China including the ‘Ghost Cities’, depletion of usable water on the main agricultural Northern Plain area of China and the reaction of the people in the very large cities to visible air pollution (much concern and temporary interventions you’ll recall to decrease air pollution at the time of the Olympic Games). The air pollution problem was rated by the Communist Party itself as a major treat to it.

    Many concerns were raised about the Indian governments ability to reform corporate governance to take advantage of their coming demographics and to prepare for the future and also about pollution.

    Both the Indian and Chinese government were certainly ‘alive’ to the implications of burning coal and active in pursuing alternatives.

    There were then, and I expect still being written now, much material predictions/opinions on the future development of both countries written around then and you’ll find them on most strategic policy internet sites / blogs.

    Australian ‘musings’ on the future of the two countries at the time included this speech by Turnbull at the LSE which got a fair bit of attention at the time –

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/assets/richmedia/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/transcripts/20111005_1830_sameBedDifferentDreams_tr.pdf

    KRudd was another Australian raising concerns at the time.

    Other Australian writings and debate you’ll find on the Lowry, ASPI and the ANUs’ strategic policy sites by many known academics like Hugh White.

    Taking into account the differences then predicted, the disparity of your views of what you see in China is not surprising. The difference experience in the very large cities versus the next tier down cities must be becoming more obvious.

  35. phRD

    The group has gone so far as to float the idea of recruiting former House speaker Newt Gingrich or former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum as potential replacements for Ryan (R-Wis.) should there be a rebellion.

    Things must be getting dire in the Republican Party. The next Congressional elections will be a real ‘bun fight’.

  36. Mal and the nutjobs never fail to make the wrong choices.

    The retired senior engineer, who worked at the neighbouring coal-fired Bayswater plant and had frequent discussions with his counterparts at Liddell, said Liddell was known “to have massive problems”.

    “It’s just never been a good plant,” the man, speaking on condition of anonymity, said. “It’s never been reliable.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/baseload-investment-scheme-could-keep-coal-alive-but-liddell-power-station-has-mammoth-problems-20170907-gycspc.html

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