Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

497 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. grimace @ #291 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 3:44 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #277 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 12:58 pm

    Now they are “forging ahead with Snowy 2.0”.
    LOL

    Come on Trog, be fair, they have a plan to issue a tender for the Feasibility Study into the expansion.

    Grimace,

    Is that tongue in cheek – you can’t have missed that the large engineering consultant SMEC has been underway on the feasibility study since mid-May.

    As I understand it, this is a $29 million feasibility study because it has lots of hard rock deep boreholes to validate the ground conditions for the required hard rock tunneling.

  2. Can anyone understand what is going on with Yougov.

    Yougov state that they found 283 people who admitted to voting L/NP at the last election, when the sample should give them 391. So they are massively scaling their results from these people who stated they voted LNP last time.

    Usually you scale people up if their demographic is difficult to get a hold of. Depending on your survey method, that is most likely to be young people (noting that the Yougov poll did have to scale up their youth vote and scale down their old vote).

    But are those 283 people who admitted to voting lnp last time really representative of the 108 people who are too ashamed to admit that they voted for the lnp last time?

    Is Yougov really of the opinion that they couldn’t find people that voted LNP last time? Surely the more likely answer is they found the right people, but those people either misremembered, or lied.

  3. Rex Douglas @ #293 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 1:47 pm

    Hard to see how the postal survey won’t be thrown out given all the discussion over the last week.

    One wonders whether the pro-ssm group in the Govt are counting on it being thrown out… ?

    Isn’t it lucky for all concerned that our court system does not refer to the Court of Public Opinion for guidance.

  4. grimace @ #308 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 4:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #293 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 1:47 pm

    Hard to see how the postal survey won’t be thrown out given all the discussion over the last week.

    One wonders whether the pro-ssm group in the Govt are counting on it being thrown out… ?

    Isn’t it lucky for all concerned that our court system does not refer to the Court of Public Opinion for guidance.

    You don’t think there’s a chance Brandis Entsch and co have planned this course all along knowing the postal survey would be thrown out clearing the way for a parliamentary conscience vote ?

  5. Trog Sorrenson @ #298 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 1:55 pm

    Boerwar

    Coalition asks AGL to keep Liddell coal generator open extra 5 years

    (Even though it’s a dumb idea according to AEMO.)
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-asks-agl-to-keep-liddell-coal-generator-open-extra-5-years-58040/

    I’ll add that it’s a dumb idea, because at 50 years old, the plant will be being held together with sticky tape and good luck, and further, the plant is likely to require a substantial investment in upgrades to bring it up to the required safety and operational standards should the owner wish to continue operations past it’s planned closure date.

    Disclosure of interest:
    I’m currently doing work for a company who has maintenance contracts on power plants. I’ve never been to Liddell.

  6. Rex
    “You don’t think there’s a chance Brandis Entsch and co have planned this course all along knowing the postal survey would be thrown out clearing the way for a parliamentary conscience vote ?”

    No, not a snowball’s chance in Hell.

  7. grimace

    It’s such a dumb idea that apparently Malcolm is thinking of purchasing the plant for the Commonwealth if AGL don’t agree to extend its life….

  8. Apologies if this has already been noted.

    Cyclone Charlie‏ @CycloneCharlie8 · 3h3 hours ago

    Worth noting that all the cross benchers voted against @Barnaby_Joyce.
    Doesn’t auger well for @TurnbullMalcolm.

  9. Looks like the citizenship laws are dead.
    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    [Gareth Hutchens
    The Nick Xenophon Team has derailed the immigration minister Peter Dutton’s attempt to enact tough new citizenship laws, saying it cannot support his controversial package in its current form, according to reports.

    NXT senator Stirling Griff has told Fairfax Media he and his colleagues have decided not to support the government’s bill at it stands, saying Dutton’s plan is “an attempt to fix problems that don’t exist.”

    We’re a nation built on migration and the envy of the world when it comes to a harmonious society. The system isn’t broken, there’s no need for it to be repaired.

    Labor, the Greens and NXT are enough to sink the package in the Senate, meaning the Turnbull government will have to dump the citizenship bill altogether or make substantial changes.

    It comes hours before a parliamentary committee report is expected to recommend the government weaken elements of its citizenship bill, including watering down its proposed English language requirements for people seeking Australian citizenship.

    The government’s proposed citizenship overhaul includes increasing waiting times for permanent residents before they can apply for citizenship (from one year to four years), and forcing new applicants to complete a tougher English language test (and achieve a pass mark of 75%) equivalent to level 6 of the international English language testing system (IELTS).

    It also wants to give the immigration minister power to overrule decisions on citizenship applications by the administrative appeals tribunal (AAT) if the minister doesn’t think the decisions are in the national interest, and give the minister power to decide whether or not the applicant has integrated into the Australian community.

    NXT senator Stirling Griff warned in June that he was “deeply worried” about the power the bill would give Dutton to overrule citizenship decisions by the AAT.

    On Monday Nick Xenophon told the Conversation that he had “serious concerns” about the legislation in its current form.

    The four-year [waiting] period may not be so bad on its own, but it would actually cause all sorts of issues by being effectively retrospective for those families that have children about to start university.

    There’s also the issue of the requirement to have university-standard English language requirements which I guess a lot of, even members of parliament, would have difficulty passing, even me. I think it seems incredibly onerous … and a bridge too far.]
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/sep/05/andrew-wilkie-calls-for-a-parliamentary-vote-if-the-high-court-throws-out-the-postal-survey-politics-live

  10. zoomster @ #314 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 2:27 pm

    grimace

    It’s such a dumb idea that apparently Malcolm is thinking of purchasing the plant for the Commonwealth if AGL don’t agree to extend its life….

    I had supplier side involvement with the $308 million that the WA government pissed away on trying to refurbish the A & B units at Muja. Malcolm is going to need a giant bucket of cash in addition to the purchase price if he wants to keep the plant running.

    A part of me suspects that this is more corporate welfare to be paid to the mates of the L/NP. Old coal power plants are incredibly toxic places and the Commonwealth as the new owner would acquire responsibility for the remediation of the site along with the plant itself.

  11. Stumps Day 1 in the High Court summary.

    [At the end of the day, where did we get to?

    Counsel for the plaintiffs in both separate claims have wrapped up their arguments.

    While it would be thoroughly unwise to ever presume the outcome of a high court decision, their honours challenged a number of assumptions put in the plaintiffs’ arguments.

    In brief, the arguments were:

    That the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, “misdirected himself” by issuing a direction to release $122m to fund the postal survey under section 10 of the Appropriations Act on the grounds that it was both “urgent” and “unforeseen.”

    That the expenditure could not be taken to be “urgent” because the senate was sitting and able to see a special appropriations bill to fund the survey, and because the deadline of 15 November was arbitrary and self-imposed.

    That it could not be seen as “unforeseen” because Cormann had conversations with colleagues as early as March about “alternative measures” to deliver on the promise of a plebescite, and by the wording of his press releases on 8 and 9 August clearly meant that the ABS postal survey be taken as a delivery of that promise and to in effect be considered a plebescite.

    That the Australian Bureau of Statistics was not authorised to undertake this postal survey because it was a binary yes/no question and could not therefore be properly called a statistic, and because the ABS was not established to survey matters of personal opinion.

    That the Australian Electoral Commission was not authorised to provide electoral roll information to the ABS for anything other than the gathering of statistical information, which this was not, and was not authorised to provide the enrolment details of silent electors.

    We’ll see you back here tomorrow morning for the government’s response.]

  12. Andrew Leigh @ALeighMP
    ·
    20m
    Now that NXT has joined Labor in opposing Dutton’s divisive citizenship changes, it’s time the Turnbull Govt dropped the bill #auspol

  13. While I’m tempted to dismiss the YouGov results I’ve decided it might be wiser to wait & see how they go in a real election before saying something I’ll rue later.

    In the meantime it is a good reminder to Labor not to take the lead for granted, accept it is still close & stay disciplined focused on presenting themselves as a better option for voters.

  14. Socrates @ #286 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 3:27 pm

    Trog
    “Utter rubbish.
    If Labor got on and backed renewables instead of their mining mates, they might actually see an electoral payoff.
    Turnbull is vulnerable on this, why support his “Clean Coal” bullshit?”

    Careful Trog. I hope you are not suggesting Labor get with a “popular” or “principled” cause. Mining union officials want their sinecures in parliament too. Abandoning the parts of Labor wedded to carbon intensive industries would be a slippery slope. Where would it end? Would all the SDA supported Labor MPs have to resign too? Just because they supported illegal agreements that lowered retail workers wages below the minimum wage? Sounds like communism to me. You only have to look at NZ Labor to see the dangers of young leadership with fresh ideas.

    I, non Union Member of either the SDA or the Mining Unions, or any Union for that matter, get back from an 8 hour day campaigning for the Labor Party, and I have to read the SA Mutual Masturbation Anti Labor Unions Society dribbling out this crap!?!

    Give. Me. A. Break.

  15. [mikehilliard
    We’ll see you back here tomorrow morning for the government’s response.

    It was unforeseen because we say so.]

    It was unforeseen because we have no idea what we’re doing tonight for dinner, let alone what’s going to happen tomorrow.

  16. C@t
    We were actually being helpful. You wouldn’t want to spend all your time campaigning for a party with inferior environmental policies. Would you?
    Maybe you should put your feet up and have a nice hot cup of Milo.

  17. The Greens are doing what they do best: nothing much of use, but a bit of damage to the only party that will ever form government with a full pledge on renewable energy.

  18. Good bye Coal lovers:

    Andy Vesey @AndyVesey_AGL
    ·
    17m
    .@TonyAbbottMHR We’re getting out of coal. We committed to the closure of the Liddell power station in 2022, the end of its operating life.

  19. LNP they only do discrimination so well:

    Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor
    ·
    38s
    Postal survey on same-sex marriage ‘unique and offensive’, high court told

  20. Trog Sorrenson @ #329 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 5:13 pm

    C@t
    We were actually being helpful. You wouldn’t want tto spend all your time campaigning for a party with inferior environmental policies. Would you?
    Maybe you should put yoyr feet up and have a nice hot cup of Milo.

    Labor had superior Climate Change and Environmental policies. The Greens didn’t have the bottle to campaign with us for them after they had been enacted.

    Maybe you should stop drinking Milo and Bludging all day, Trog. A bit of campaigning expertise would go a long way with The Greens. All they seem to be good at is whinging about Labor.

  21. C@tmomma @ #337 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 5:20 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #329 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 5:13 pm

    C@t
    We were actually being helpful. You wouldn’t want tto spend all your time campaigning for a party with inferior environmental policies. Would you?
    Maybe you should put yoyr feet up and have a nice hot cup of Milo.

    Labor had superior Climate Change and Environmental policies. The Greens didn’t have the bottle to campaign with us for them after they had been enacted.

    Maybe you should stop drinking Milo and Bludging all day, Trog. A bit of campaigning expertise would go a long way with The Greens. All they seem to be good at is whinging about Labor.

    Rudd was the terminator.

  22. It is just as well the Greens will be around in the next Senate to stop whatever Labor tries to get through Parliament. We all know that whatever Labor does is NEVER good enough for the holier than thous.

    Just so the Greens can have their cake and eat it too.

  23. Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
    @realDonaldTrump

    Big week coming up!


    Ron Perlman‏Verified account
    @perlmutations

    Thinking of taking Poland?

  24. C@tmomma

    The unions Socrates referred to deserve a good swipe. Valid criticism is not being anti-union. Or are you of the “my country right or wrong” school ?

  25. So if the HC knocks the voluntary postal survey on the head what happens to all the survey papers that surely would have been printed by now?

    Here’s one idea, load them up in big dump trucks and deliver them to all the MP’s who supported the proposal.

  26. This is crazy stuff.

    Lyle Shelton, the head of the Australian Christian Lobby, says if Australia legalises same-sex marriage people could assume heterosexual men such as himself are gay.

    Speaking to Sky News on Sunday Mr Shelton says if there is a change to the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples it could no longer be assumed that ‘millions of people like myself are married to women’.

    ‘That affects me straight away’, he said.

    ‘People no longer assume that I am married to a women, I have to explain myself’.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/nsw/2016/02/16/straight-men-may-be-confused-for-gay-men–acl.html

Comments are closed.