Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

497 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Just going to post this shining example of Australia’s ability to have a respectful debate on whether to grant equal rights to all.

    Thankfully, because this is related to local council elections and not the survey, there are legal protections. Anyone who was involved in this is likely to end up in trouble.

  7. Voice Endeavour @ #246 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 1:58 pm

    @ Guytaur – I really doubt Christine Forster cares about people being diplomatic after:

    “As everyone knows, my distinguished and much-loved sister Chris is on the other side of this argument. Chris has been a very good mother with her partner Virginia, they do a good job, but nevertheless I’m old fashioned enough to think kids do best with a mother and a father.”

    What sot of obnoxious subterfuge is ‘oh it’s just me being all folksy and “old fashioned enough”‘.

  8. PvO on the latest neswpoll. He thinks Abbott supporters are nuts and prefers Turnbull, but isn’t dopey about Turnbull’s chances.

    On his twitter feed the “Tick-tock” was prominent on the tweet for the article, which could be interpreted as it being near the end for Turnbull.

    Google the following:
    the-simple-fact-facing-turnbull-over-newspoll

  9. Oh, Malcolm’s clarified it – he knows what the result will be but he’s just doing the HC a favour by giving them an opportunity to rule.

  10. Now we are down to tin-tacks:
    From the Guardian
    If the act allows “that expenditure on the specific form of an activity and on a specific set of terms” must be unforeseen, it argues, then it could be applied to such a broad range of circumstances that the limitation of “unforeseen” in the Act “would impose no real constraint at all.”

    She argues that “urgent” is a separate and distinct test to “unforeseen” but that the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, appears to have conflated the two.

    That is, he appears to have reasoned that the expenditure was urgent because it was unforeseen.

    That doesn’t count, she says.

  13. LeVoyageurOz: Turnbull’s losing it.
    He’s dragging out sentences including ‘fair dinkum’.
    #ManOfThePeople
    #StrongLeader.
    #QT

  14. TPOF

    Looks like the Greens are returning to their grassroots objectives – undermining Labor to nobody’s benefit

    Utter rubbish.
    If Labor got on and backed renewables instead of their mining mates, they might actually see an electoral payoff.
    Turnbull is vulnerable on this, why support his “Clean Coal” bullshit?

    Voters blame energy companies – and PM – for sky-high power prices
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/voters-blame-energy-companies-pm-sky-high-power-prices-87361/

  15. Voice Endeavour

    Just going to post this shining example of Australia’s ability to have a respectful debate on whether to grant equal rights to all.

    comment image

    Thankfully, because this is related to local council elections and not the survey, there are legal protections. Anyone who was involved in this is likely to end up in trouble.
    __________________________________________

    Pauline was right. See what happens when we get flooded by Asians 😀

  20. Ah, thought so. The questions were so well crafted that a SOSO…

    Pyne signals immediate defeat. Moves that Burke no longer be heard…

  21. Boerwar

    The Greens are taking it right up to the Government by…. um… ah…. errr….

    Get a grip.
    By not letting them get away with their Clean Coal bullshit.

  26. T
    Not even the industry uses ‘clean coal’ any more. This is just another grab for relevance by an irrelevant political spoiler party.

  28. Boerwar

    Not even the industry uses ‘clean coal’ any more. This is just another grab for relevance by an irrelevant political spoiler party.

    Call it just “low emissions coal” then. Only 90% of the pollution.
    The Greens are relevant if they call attention to the possibility of Labor including “low emissions” coal in a dirty deal that will push the emission standard so low that the CET will be useless.

  29. Shorten_Suite: The only thing saving @Barnaby_Joyce today is his own vote and the fact @WilkieMP is in the High Court. Vote is 72-70.
    #auspol #qt

  31. It sounds as if AGL’s “we’re not going to extend the life of this power station because that would be batsh*t crazy” is being countered by a suggestion that the Federal government purchase it…

  32. drgrahamthom: Congrats to all who made submissions to the Sen Inquiry into the Citizen Bill, sanity prevails @amnestyOz theage.com.au/federal-politi…

  33. Boerwar

    So, changed the goal posts already, have we?

    What – from “clean coal” to “low emissions coal”? You are clutching at straws.

  34. Trog Sorrenson @ #264 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 2:39 pm

    TPOF

    Looks like the Greens are returning to their grassroots objectives – undermining Labor to nobody’s benefit

    Utter rubbish.
    If Labor got on and backed renewables instead of their mining mates, they might actually see an electoral payoff.
    Turnbull is vulnerable on this, why support his “Clean Coal” bullshit?
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/voters-blame-energy-companies-pm-sky-high-power-prices-87361/

    dirty energy unions

  35. Thank Christ AEMO is now headed up by someone, Audrey Zibelman, who knows what they are talking about.

    AEMO says fossil fuel failures, renewable investment delays biggest threat to grid
    The Australian Energy Market Operator has cited climate change, and the potential for large fossil fuel generators to fail in the summer heat-wave as the biggest threat to Australia’s electricity supplies in the coming years.

    It also makes clear that there are plenty of alternatives to new baseload coal generators, and underlines that any delays to new wind and solar plants could also jeopardise security of supply, particularly in Victoria and South Australia.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-says-fossil-fuel-failures-renewable-investment-delays-biggest-threat-to-grid-82601/

  36. Trog
    “Utter rubbish.
    If Labor got on and backed renewables instead of their mining mates, they might actually see an electoral payoff.
    Turnbull is vulnerable on this, why support his “Clean Coal” bullshit?”

    Careful Trog. I hope you are not suggesting Labor get with a “popular” or “principled” cause. Mining union officials want their sinecures in parliament too. Abandoning the parts of Labor wedded to carbon intensive industries would be a slippery slope. Where would it end? Would all the SDA supported Labor MPs have to resign too? Just because they supported illegal agreements that lowered retail workers wages below the minimum wage? Sounds like communism to me. You only have to look at NZ Labor to see the dangers of young leadership with fresh ideas.

  37. I’m finding the Guardian live coverage of the HC confusing.

    The court sees that as significant because a postal survey is a very different vehicle to a postal survey.

  38. Only Gillard was committed to a genuine CEP.

    Rudd caved in and ‘terminated’ it and now Shorten is bowing to his dirty energy unions.

  40. @ mike – I am moderately sure that was meant to say

    The court sees that as significant because a postal survey is a very different vehicle to a postal plebiscite.

    But not 100%. Lawyers and judges are weird at times.

  43. Hard to see how the postal survey won’t be thrown out given all the discussion over the last week.

    One wonders whether the pro-ssm group in the Govt are counting on it being thrown out… ?

  45. grimace

    Come on Trog, be fair, they have a plan to issue a tender for the Feasibility Study into the expansion.

    Yes, I think they also drilled a hole. Probably for a sign.

  50. On the primary vote, the Coalition are on 34% (unchanged), Labor are on 32% (down one), the Greens are on 12% (up two) and One Nation are on 9% (down one). Other parties are collectively on 13% (no change).
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is on 44% favourable (down one), and 48% unfavourable (up one), whereas Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is at 43% favourable (up one) and 46% unfavourable (down one).

    So Labor gained 1.66 from the Greens, lost 0.47 from ON, lost 1 from their own. So that’s a shift towards Labor of ~ 0.19%

    Shorten (-3, up from -5) ahead of Turnbull (-4, down from -2) on Netsat

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