Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. New Rex policy (for me): Dude’s either an idiot or a troll (or both.) Either way, not worth wasting my time even reading. Automatic scroll past when I see his name in future.

  2. On the Newspoll. Its all steady as she goes at the moment. Thats set in concrete now. Just like it seemed to be late in the term for Gillard and replacing with Rudd didn’t help much.

    What we don’t have is swings to the LNP with them ahead. This is reassuring news to me. This before the bruising parliament fortnight starts. Its only going to get worse for them as Labor and other parties highlight the divisions of the LNP and ramp up the illegitimacy claims.

  3. Rex Douglas
    Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 10:26 pm
    Comment #34
    Gary @ #31 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 10:24 pm

    47 -53 and it’s time for Albo? It could well be 37-63 with Albo installed as leader

    If you really believe that Rex you are a bigger fool than I thought. If Labor switched horses now they would be crucified by the media and their poll lead would evaporate overnight. You are just displaying your ignorance with these silly comments all the time.

  4. CC

    This morning Crabbe started tweeting about her problems getting the NBN. The usual horror story. She tweeted out an apology to all those she disbelieved before it occurred to her.

  5. Steve777 @ #50 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 8:47 pm

    Fact check please.

    Fair enough. Now if I were a conservative, I wouldn’t need facts. I’d just shout what I said much louder and if that didn’t work up the volume and attack anyone who disagreed as a traitor, fool, communist or whatever.

    However, facts are important and I don’t have them to hand. But some of us here have long memories. Remember that stratospheric leads that Rudd had during 2007, narrowing to a comfortable victory but no landslide. Or Hayden in 1980. Or even the SMH page from 1983 posted this morning. The headline proclaimed Hawke’s lead narrowing in the leadup to the 1983 election. It’s often the way – predicted landslide to comfortable win, comfortable win to just squeaking through (1974, 2010), narrow wins to narrow losses (1980).

    Labor last scored 53 2PP in a real election in 1983, 54 in 1946: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_federal_elections#House_of_Representatives_primary.2C_two-party_and_seat_results

    All published opinion polling significantly underestimated the result for WA Labor in their recent election. Newspoll, Galaxy, Reachtel and the Reachtel exit poll all put the result on 54-46, and the actual result was 55.5-44.5.

  6. rharris334: Taxpayer to fund Tony Windsor’s legal costs against Barnaby Joyce heraldsun.com.au/news/news-
    storhttps://twitter.com/rharris334/status/904327398455336960

  7. “Are you smoking the the same stuff as as Rex (or are you just taking the piss)?? “

    As it turns out, I’m drinking a can of VB.

    But seriously, there seem to be more rusted on conservatives than there are rusted on Laborites. I would not vote for my Liberal member if Labor were led my Eddie Obeid, and lots of people feel like that about Labor. It’s a challenge.

    Further, a biased mainstream media, parts of which are actively campaigning for the Government and against Labor, doesn’t help. Just imagine the mouth-frothing rage if doubts were raised about the eligibility of members and Ministers in the Gillard Government to sit in Parliament. The calls for resignation, let alone standing aside, would be deafening. And we know an L/NP Craig Thomson would be given a free pass. Again, a challenge.

  8. Homosexuality is not illegal. They can co-habit and exchange bodily fluids to their hearts content.

    This is spoken by someone who one can presume was against decriminalisation of gay sex. And the language itself is very negative. Heterosexuals “exchange bodily fluids” (sounds fun to me) but you won’t hear a peep about that.

    In any case, his argument, if you call it as such is this. We “respect” gays enough to not lock them up for “exchanging bodily fluids” but we cannot afford them the dignity of being married under the (civil) law. No, that would be going too far. Take your consolation and go away..

    As I said, so much of this is really just bullying. Bullying of gay people for the sake of maintaining the rage. Of showing disrespect for them as people. Its not just Christians I was referring to when I talked about religious zealots. I have gay friends from other cultures in Sydney who are shamed, bullied, force to live lives that are shams. Now, gay marriage won’t take all of that away, but its one step towards a culture that does respect gay people and does frown on people who bully others for not acting in a way that suits the bully.

  9. guytaur, so I assume that twitter responded to Crabbe with lots of reminders of how stupid, uninformed and rubbish her previous “journalism” was?

  10. Steve777 @ #60 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 9:00 pm

    “Are you smoking the the same stuff as as Rex (or are you just taking the piss)?? “

    As it turns out, I’m drinking a can of VB.

    But seriously, there seem to be more rusted on conservatives than there are rusted on Laborites. I would not vote for my Liberal member if Labor were led my Eddie Obeid, and lots of people feel like that about Labor. It’s a challenge.

    Further, a biased mainstream media, parts of which are actively campaigning for the Government and against Labor, doesn’t help. Just imagine the mouth-frothing rage if doubts were raised about the eligibility of members and Ministers in the Gillard Government to sit in Parliament. The calls for resignation, let alone standing aside, would be deafening. And we know an L/NP Craig Thomson would be given a free pass. Again, a challenge.

    The MSM is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a news source for most people, and Labor has been outstanding in using social media to work around them. Social media as a source of information, and as a campaign tool is becoming increasingly important, and the L/NP have themselves admitted they are being left behind by modern campaigning techniques.

    Before seeing it for myself, I was a doubter about the effectiveness of Labor’s field campaign. Now having seen it and been a part of it myself, it presents Labor with an enormous advantage in ensuring that swings, which are never uniform, occur everywhere that matters.

    The use of data analytics to ensure that their field campaign only calls or knocks on the doors of swinging voters is an enormous step forwards in the effectiveness of field campaigning and Labor are to be applauded for having the foresight and courage to adopt this approach after learning about it from the American Democrats.

  11. Dear Mr. President –
    Congratulations on a remarkable run. Millions have placed their hopes in you, and all of us, regardless of party, should hope for expanded prosperity and security during your tenure.
    This is a unique office, without a clear blueprint for success, so I don’t know that any advice from me will be particularly helpful. Still, let me offer a few reflections from the past 8 years.
    First, we’ve both been blessed, in different ways, with great good fortune. Not everyone is so lucky. It’s up to us to do everything we can (to) build more ladders of success for every child and family that’s willing to work hard.
    Second, American leadership in this world really is indispensable. It’s up to us, through action and example, to sustain the international order that’s expanded steadily since the end of the Cold War, and upon which our own wealth and safety depend.
    Third, we are just temporary occupants of this office. That makes us guardians of those democratic institutions and traditions — like rule of law, separation of powers, equal protection and civil liberties — that our forebears fought and bled for. Regardless of the push and pull of daily politics, it’s up to us to leave those instruments of our democracy at least as strong as we found them.
    And finally, take time, in the rush of events and responsibilities, for friends and family. They’ll get you through the inevitable rough patches.
    Michelle and I wish you and Melania the very best as you embark on this great adventure, and know that we stand ready to help in any ways which we can.
    Good luck and Godspeed,
    BO

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/03/politics/obama-trump-letter-inauguration-day/index.html

  12. The Crabb statement on the NBN was pathetic, it is as if she, like the rest of the press gallery took completely on faith what Abbott and Turnbull said on the NBN, despite what the experts said, and now only when she has direct experience has second thoughts.

    This is a $50bn infrastructure project.

    The Newspoll result is in the MOE, (and on a snowy week), so all it does is confirm the existing trend. The only thing that might be drawn from it is that it is taken in a non sitting period, which may be predictive.

  13. Stupid.. Stupid.. Stupid..

    https://thinkprogress.org/trump-names-climate-science-denier-to-run-nasa-c9a46a6f4a52/

    In a Friday night news dump, the White House announced that President Donald Trump Plans to nominate Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK), a climate science denier to be administrator of NASA.

    Bridenstine is a politician without any scientific credentials, unlike previous NASA chiefs, and for that reason his nomination has already been criticized by both Florida’s senators Marco Rubio (R) and Bill Nelson (D), Politico reports. Rubio said, “I just think [his nomination] could be devastating for the space program.”

  14. guytaur:

    “This morning Crabbe started tweeting about her problems getting the NBN. The usual horror story. She tweeted out an apology to all those she disbelieved before it occurred to her.”

    It’s typical of the conservative mindset – it’s not a problem unless/until it affects them personally.

  15. “In any case, his argument, if you call it as such is this. We “respect” gays enough to not lock them up for “exchanging bodily fluids” but we cannot afford them the dignity of being married under the (civil) law. No, that would be going too far. Take your consolation and go away..”

    GG implies homosexual relationships are just about “exchanging bodily fluids”. It’s written in his “it ain’t a marriage” remarks – i.e. it’s not a *real* relationship; just a bit of rumpy-pumpy. Because, you know, all heterosexual marriages are based on love, and exchanging bodily fluids doesn’t factor into it.

  16. The Daily Telegraph and it’s continuing campaign on ‘How bad Abbott was’ …

    It’s obviously aimed at helping Turnbull and even possibly some “journo’s” writing now what they wish they’d written and got published ‘then’.

    But the purpose of it immediately before Parliament resumes other than trying to influence members before Party Room Meetings?

    Good government could start tomorrow? Next week? After Christmas?

    (Whatever happened to Joe Hilderbrand?)

  17. ABC13 Houston @abc13houston
    ·
    18h
    Open-carry swords and machetes in Texas start TODAY. See all of the new laws here:
    https://t.co/xqPF581HHZ?amp=1

    ABC13 Houston @abc13houston
    ·
    16h
    NEW LAW: Don’t forget it is now ILLEGAL to text and drive in Texas. Here are the other new laws you need to know:

    Americans have weird priorities.

  18. ESPN commentary on results at the US Open – One female competitor got a positive endorsement after a win because she “didn’t lose her temper too badly”.

  19. UK polling:

    A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday put Labour on 43 per cent, a five-point lead over the Tories on 38 per cent.

    Some 42 per cent of voters said it was “unthinkable” that Ms May will fight the next election – including 39 per cent of Tory supporters – and Mr Corbyn was backed by 40 per cent to win the next election, one point ahead of the Prime Minister.

    A total of 31 per cent said the Tories were more likely to win the next election if Ms May quit, more than double the 15 per cent who said they were less likely to succeed.

    Boris Johnson was backed by 19 per cent to succeed her – 21 per cent among Tory voters – with Jacob Rees-Mogg backed by nine per cent (15 per cent of Tories) and Philip Hammond on eight per cent (12 per cent among Tory voters).

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-warned-lynton-crosby-snap-general-election-a7926596.html

    From the comments on the Survation Poll results –

    What is truly depressing is the finding that Boris Johnson is by far considered her most likely successor.

    That may be the only thing keeping her in office!

    🙂

  20. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    You know, sometimes I’m glad that I have a million and one other things to do at the moment. That way I don’t have to waste my time reading Rex Douglas’ passive aggressive anti Labor trolling.

    It’s positively Seinfeldian. An opinion about nothing!

  21. Since No One Takes Trump Seriously, The White House Sent Out Mattis To Threaten N. Korea

    Defense Secretary James Mattis warned North Korea that any threat to the United States would be met with a massive and overwhelming military response.

    Mattis was sent out to threaten North Korea because he has more credibility than Trump. The North Koreans aren’t taking the President Of The United States seriously, so the White House to send out the Secretary of Defense to illustrate how serious this crisis has become

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/03/takes-trump-seriously-white-house-mattis-threaten-n-korea.html

  22. ‘He’s the pilot of a plane in a terrible downward spiral’: GOP consultants panicked Trump is destroying the party

    According to the Washington Post, Trump’s antics are playing well with his rabid base but even Fox News viewers are beginning to recoil from the president.

    “Trump’s job-approval numbers remain mired in the 30s in most polls, and several new findings last week gave Republicans interested in expanding the party’s appeal fresh reason to worry,” the Post reports. “A Fox News survey, for example, found that majorities of voters think that Trump is ‘tearing the country apart’ and does not respect racial minorities.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/hes-the-pilot-of-a-plane-in-a-terrible-downward-spiral-gop-consultants-panicked-trump-is-destroying-the-party/

  23. I noticed that President Tiny Hands was wearing see-through plastic gloves on his visit to Texas after Hurricane Harvey. He’s giving Howard Hughes a run for his money!

  24. So, the WA Liberals are so dissatisfied with the Commonwealth Government they want to leave the Federation!

    This is an indictment of both the local Liberals, who are tacitly admitting they have been completely ineffective in advancing WA’s interests, and their Federal counterparts, who clearly have taken WA for granted for many years.

    Following the coming election, WA will benefit from the victory of a Labor-filled contingent of Federal MPs; and then from the cohesion of like-minded Labor Governments in WA and nationally for the first time since the early 1990s.

  25. Christopher Pyne has suggested his high profile has unreasonably fuelled media speculation that his seat of Sturt will be abolished in a redistribution, but hinted he would switch seats even if Sturt is retained but is rendered more marginal by boundary changes.

    The comments raise the prospect of a tense internal preselection contest within the Liberal Party if the moderate Mr Pyne – a 24-year parliamentary veteran – believes challenging a sitting colleague is his only chance of staying in politics.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pyne-flags-seat-switch-if-boundary-change-unfavourable-20170903-gy9s48.html

  26. ab

    At the end of the Channel 9 vid on Turnbull’s ‘dummy spit’ Charles Croucher, ace reporter, describes 2PP 53-47 as a ‘small lead’.

    If that washed out even to the ALP gaining only 10 seats from the Libs you’d have to wonder how many seats he’d need to report a ‘winning lead’?

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry about the lateness this morning.

    Adam Gartrell writes that the Turnbull government is bracing for another chaotic week in Federal Parliament, with Labor warning “anything could happen” as it seeks to turn the screws on Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chaos-looms-as-parliament-resumes-amid-ongoing-citizenship-drama-20170903-gy9pk5.html
    Mark Kenny uses cricket analogies to show what trouble the government is in.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/torrid-times-test-turnbulls-team-20170903-gy9u7b.html
    Pyne hinted he would switch seats even if Sturt is retained but is rendered more marginal by boundary changes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pyne-flags-seat-switch-if-boundary-change-unfavourable-20170903-gy9s48
    Urban Wronski tells us about Magnificent Malcolm’s latest diversionary efforts.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/09/03/super-mal-of-monaro-fails-to-save-the-day/
    Peter Martin looks at various proposals for the Medicare and other levies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dont-just-lift-the-medicare-levy-remove-the-loopholes-acoss-20170903-gy9ukd.html
    Remind me to avoid going to Sydney in the future!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/double-toll-looms-as-lendlease-bids-to-build-motorway-to-sydney-airport-20170903-gy9nk8.html
    North Korea’s sixth nuclear test was expected. The timing speaks of Kim Jong-un’s willingness to provoke China; and an attempt to seize the moment to wedge South Korea and Donald Trump. Only China can do something.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/kim-jongun-crossed-chinas-red-line-with-nuclear-test-now-ball-is-in-beijings-court-20170903-gy9sva.html
    But US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis threatened a “massive military response” to any attack on the United States or its allies after North Korea conducted its most powerful nuclear test to date.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/massive-military-response-if-north-korea-attacks-us-defence-chief-threatens-20170903-gya0m7.html
    Barack Obama warned Donald Trump to uphold the rule of law and not undermine the “international order” in a newly revealed letter from the 44th US president to his successor. The former president gave Trump three key pieces of advice in a letter he left in the Oval Office when he departed the White House.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/03/obama-warned-trump-not-to-undermine-international-order-new-letter-reveals
    A leading member of a congressional intelligence committee is threatening to subpoena the White House in order to obtain a draft letter that Donald Trump reportedly wanted to send to James Comey when he fired him as FBI chief.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/03/white-house-threatened-with-subpoena-over-draft-letter-from-trump-to-comey

  28. Section 2 . . .

    Greg Sheridan writes that dictator Kim Jong-un has created the moment of truth for US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/north-koreas-nukes-test-trump-china-resolve/news-story/f53168cf7ebb4192bdac79a03700a510
    Ross Gittins explains how we get some crazy economic decisions made by politicians.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/treasury-must-prevail-against-pushy-young-punks-20170902-gy9jg8.html
    Greg Jericho says that the government will be in trouble if the improved business outlook does not translate into higher wages.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/sep/03/economic-news-is-good-for-the-government-but-will-it-trickle-down-before-the-next-election
    And Alan Austin writes that August 2017 has been atrocious for the wellbeing of most Australians. Treasurer Scott Morrison and his cabinet colleagues must be jubilant that other calamities are drowning out mainstream media reports on the failing economy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/august-economic-news-marvellous-for-the-moguls-miserable-for-the-majority,10680
    NAB to employ “chatbots”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nabs-virtual-banker-chatbots-to-save-millions-20170901-gy8pn3.html
    This Michael West editorial says there is no deterrent for bad behaviour in banking. The system is broken. The top brass at the banks invoke the “reverse-Nuremberg defence”. They blame their foot-soldiers for not following orders, claim there is not enough evidence to prove they were following orders or, in CBA’s case … “it was the computers wot did it”
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/banks-regulators-and-the-reverse-nuremberg-defence/
    US senator Claire McCaskill’s bid to clarify the act that gives internet firms a get out of jail card over content published on their sites has alarmed Silicon Valley.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/03/woman-strikes-fear-into-internet-giants-claire-mccaskill-communications-decency-act
    The Liberal heroine Kathy Jackson has abandoned her $3m claim on a wealthy barrister’s estate. Google.
    /news/nation/kathy-jackson-abandons-claim-on-barristers-estate/news-story/9825976ce60dc78fa014638e90529d8c
    This GP says pathology tests are over used.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/young-healthy-and-demanding-blood-tests-the-americanisation-of-aussie-patients-20170829-gy6ei1.html
    It seems inevitable that the CBA will face investigation in the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cbas-alleged-transaction-monitoring-problems-spark-american-probes-20170903-gy9p8k.html

  29. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The charity sector is in a last-ditch effort to shield itself from the Turnbull government’s planned crackdown on foreign political influence, amid concerns charities will be caught up in the donations ban.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/political-donations-charities-fear-unintended-consequences-of-new-rules-20170825-gy4kzs.html
    And it’s bye bye to Adrian Poiccoli. This will make three by-elections for Gladys before the end of the year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/former-education-minister-adrian-piccoli-quits-politics-to-take-up-job-at-unsw-20170902-gy9mnu.html
    Private health insurance is not without its problems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/planning/is-private-health-insurance-worth-it-20170831-gy7uvq.html
    The SMH editorial supports the banning of the US ant-vaxxer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/with-freedom-of-expression-comes-responsibility-20170901-gy99uk.html

    Matt Golding and “unintended” consequences.

    Matt Golding traces Trump’s obsession with this thumb.

    Jon Kudelka and the desperation in the government ranks over citizenship.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/fa6def8d71d9b76a38a62d4648539c62

  30. Re the 53-47 “small lead “, reported on Channel shows the lack of numeracy and awareness of how the Australian political system works.
    It is only 14 months since the last election.
    The opposition has led for 19 polls.
    Given historical and marginal seat figures this is a significant swing.

    Also regarding PPM, I think at least some people don’t necessarily dislike Shorten, it’s just that they like the idea of Turnbull as PM, even if not the actuality.
    Some people of course would never vote Labor, even if Albanese was leader (or should that be especially if Albo was leader, given he is from the left).

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