BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Barry Reynolds @ #398 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 11:21 am

    For another view of the s44 story check this item out. Makes interesting reading:
    http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/a-contradictor-the-club-and-the-deputy-prime-minister-barnaby-joyce/

    What hope is there for good government when the Lib/Lab cartel won’t allow for a simple audit of MP’s to ensure their representation has legitimate claims to their seats.

    What are they hiding ?

    Are they protecting potential illegals ?

  2. I believe the government should be given credit for supporting the “It’s Alright to Fail” message doing the round on TV lately.

    ✌ 😍

  3. rhwombat @ #362 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 9:41 am

    BK. Thanks for the excellent Tara Nipe article on the problem of intractable distress at the end of life in your Dawn Patrol.

    but I have concerns that the use of these examples of inadequate Pall Care does not actually provide general support for the availability of AD, and does not do justice to current practice of specialist Palliative Care – though provision of specialist Pall Care in Australia remains woefully inadequate, particularly outside Metropolitan areas.

    For the record, I am generally in favour of discussion of the issues around AD in Australia – but feel that it should not be conflated with specialist Palliative Care.

    Like Ctar1, my thanks, and respect, too rhwombat.

    Just my thoughts – maybe we should get a room. In terms of the currently proposed legislation in Vic and NSW a V for ‘voluntary’ really should precede the AD for ‘assisted dying’.

    If you are making the point (I’m not sure) that current best practice PC negates much of the rationale behind VAD then there’s a contradiction in your penultimate sentence in that the examples given in the original article don’t do justice to current (best practice) PC, but the provision of what is current PC best practice is woefully inadequate and limited in its application, not unexpectedly, to Metro areas. Which leaves VAD as the option for those for whom best prctice PC isn’t available. Anyway, point well taken.

    There’s almost a question of semantics – when does dying start, or rather, this death process.

    If terminal infusion is in the hands of others, then therein lies a major difference with VAD which is in the hands of the dying person, or did I misread you about when terminal infusion is used, and its effect? Anyway, thankfully the former is available if the window of opportunity of the latter is missed. VAD availability, availability itself, is also thought to relieve suffering and anxiety and even longevity, as you mention with staving off the biological crash.

  4. CTar1
    briefly

    Furious Conservatives, including former ministers, said such threats and arm-twisting from the whips’ office would “backfire” spectacularly, making it more likely the prime minister would face a leadership challenge this autumn.

    Tory members who were ‘Remain’ and want to ‘play on’ after the current disaster will be very upfront about their defiance of party whips when there is no real cost to them in doing it.

    Doing ‘it’ can only be good for them and May, Boris, Davies are ‘goners’ for sure.

    Will the Tories split? You’d think they must. But the results will be unpredictable….how many will oppose the majority, how deeply will they split, how will the Euro-phobic majority react?

    Will May survive? She has wagered everything on a no-deal Brexit, a result that would be the worst of all possible outcomes but which has held the Tories together till now. A soft-Brexit will also split the Tories and certainly see May attacked and replaced.

  5. briefly

    Will the Tories split? You’d think they must.

    I think both of the ‘major’ parties in the UK are facing big changes.

    Neither will escape the effects of ‘Brexit’ and, from what I can see, the inevitable dissolution of the ‘Union’ that will follow.

    Scotland will ‘split’ I think. They won’t be in any way better off in regard to their own relations with the EU but seem convinced they’ll do better on their own.

    “Brexit” is simply about nationalism and Scotish Independence the same … what Scotland’s domestic politics will turn to immediately after the ‘split’ from the UK can only be conservatives -v- progressive.

  6. CTar1
    briefly

    Will the Tories split? You’d think they must.

    I think both of the ‘major’ parties in the UK are facing big changes.

    Neither will escape the effects of ‘Brexit’ and, from what I can see, the inevitable dissolution of the ‘Union’ that will follow.

    Scotland will ‘split’ I think. They won’t be in any way better off in regard to their own relations with the EU but seem convinced they’ll do better on their own.

    “Brexit” is simply about nationalism and Scotish Independence the same … what Scotland’s domestic politics will turn to immediately after the ‘split’ from the UK can only be conservatives -v- progressive.

    We’ll see how far the nationalist impulses – sentiments that are essentially reactionary – will carry them. They already seem to be receding. If Labour clearly position themselves as the voice of a modernist, egalitarian and open Britain – if they can overcome their own reactionary impulses – they will be able to topple the Tories. This could come very soon – within the next few months – and they can take power from the decadent, divisive and anti-social Tory remnants.

  7. Itza@#404

    Thanks. I agree almost entirely with your points, save that I think most Pall Care practitioners regard assisted dying (AD) as a parallel process, completely independent of Pall Care, and find positing it as an alternative to PC anathema.

    On the issue of AD by infusion: this is unlikely to be very available in Australia, unless (like Ian McPhee in this weekend’s SMH) you are an anaesthetist (or a vet) who can get both intravenous (iv) access and the barbiturate. Currently the only countries that have legalised AD by iv barbs are the Netherlands & Belgium, though Exit International operates in Switzerland as well. In most other jurisdictions, including Oregon and the other US states that have legislated for availability of oral barbiturates, as has been proposed & facilitated by Rod Symes & others. I suspect that is where we will end up – eventually.


  8. Rex Douglas

    frednk @ #408 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 12:29 pm

    ‘P1 and Rex fighting an irrelevant death match to the end.

    What’s the point of having a constitution if it’s allowed to be subverted?

    Rex your not pulling me in; you and P1 have fun.

  9. rhwombat and Itza…thanks very much for your thoughts on this matter. It’s an issue in WA too. We will be discussing it in a forthcoming meeting of our Labor branch.

  10. Any “audit” of MPs would have to be carried out by each respective chamber. Accordingly, an audit can never be “independent”. It will be political. Essentially, every Opposition MP will be at the mercy of a process administered on behalf of the majority. It would mean that election results would be subject to politicised second-guessing. Very bad idea.

  11. Thanks Fess, for the JA video, though I don’t know why it was addressed to me in particular.

    I’m sure I could think of a song that better expresses my revulsion for Pyne. Will think on it.

  12. briefly @ #415 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 12:42 pm

    Any “audit” of MPs would have to be carried out by each respective chamber. Accordingly, an audit can never be “independent”. It will be political. Essentially, every Opposition MP will be at the mercy of a process administered on behalf of the majority. It would mean that election results would be subject to politicised second-guessing. Very bad idea.

    That’s a poor attempt at discrediting an audit.

    The High Court would determine eligibility.

    The committee’s, with the assistance of constitutional experts, would only refer those found in the audit with questions re their citizenship.

  13. Some good news on large scale solar slipped past me about a month ago. a 1 GW solar farm has been approved in North Queensland:
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/1000-megawatt-equis-energy-solar-farm-approved-in-western-queensland/news-story/e196572be7cf2675d7c84640226c3529

    I’ve been skeptical of a number of these projects (including recent gas projects) because they use weasel words like “proposed”, “planned” or “subject to…”. Seemingly this project has all required approvals and has been given FID. Good to see.

    Also, the tender period for the planned 100MW Albany (WA) Wave Farm closed a couple of weeks ago, with the WA Government tipping in $19.5m:
    https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2017/07/Tender-called-for-Albany-wave-energy-project.aspx
    https://thewest.com.au/news/albany-advertiser/albany-wave-energy-farm-tender-called-ng-b88554128z

  14. ratsak:

    Sorry, I thought it was you who posted that every second word out of Pyne’s mouth was ‘me’, and ‘I’, hence JA’s song. 🙂

  15. Rex Douglas
    briefly @ #415 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 12:42 pm

    Any “audit” of MPs would have to be carried out by each respective chamber. Accordingly, an audit can never be “independent”. It will be political. Essentially, every Opposition MP will be at the mercy of a process administered on behalf of the majority. It would mean that election results would be subject to politicised second-guessing. Very bad idea.

    That’s a poor attempt at discrediting an audit.

    The High Court would determine eligibility.

    …in which case the HC will end up being drawn into the political interplay in the Parliament. It is a terrible idea. An absolutely terrible idea.

    s44(i) should be reformed so as to remove its highly archaic features.

  16. Greensborough Growler
    A thought provoking piece that could be the right solution.

    Perhaps India might offer a conditional right of abode to disaffected Leavers.

  17. briefly @ #421 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 1:17 pm

    Rex Douglas
    briefly @ #415 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 12:42 pm

    Any “audit” of MPs would have to be carried out by each respective chamber. Accordingly, an audit can never be “independent”. It will be political. Essentially, every Opposition MP will be at the mercy of a process administered on behalf of the majority. It would mean that election results would be subject to politicised second-guessing. Very bad idea.

    That’s a poor attempt at discrediting an audit.

    The High Court would determine eligibility.

    …in which case the HC will end up being drawn into the political interplay in the Parliament. It is a terrible idea. An absolutely terrible idea…..

    An absurd logic that if applied renders the High Court redundant.

    The question remains… is the Lib/Lab cartel shielding potential illegals ?

  18. poroti
    Pyne must have been the school sprint champion . How else could such a backpfeifengesicht have survived !

    Thanks Poroti, you made my day!

    I have a little list, they never will be missed…..

  19. Rex Douglas

    …in which case the HC will end up being drawn into the political interplay in the Parliament. It is a terrible idea. An absolutely terrible idea…..

    An absurd logic that if applied renders the High Court redundant.

    Not at all. It will just mean the HC’s time will not be wasted on a politicised guessing game. MP’s derive their right to sit from the completion of free and fair elections. To that extent, they all have an equal right to sit in the Parliament. They should not be subject to a post-election knock-out round that will inevitably be rigged in favour of the majority.

  20. 44(i) is but one of the disqualifications. There are several more. The premise of an “audit” – that is, a witch hunt – is that democracy is not enough. The proposal for an audit is rubbish. It will lead to endless attempts by the defeated and the aggrieved to undermine election results and will inevitably be rigged by the majority.

  21. s44(i) should be amended so as to remove what are spurious and archaic grounds for disqualification and remove any doubts that hang over election results.

  22. briefly @ #429 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 1:51 pm

    Rex Douglas

    …in which case the HC will end up being drawn into the political interplay in the Parliament. It is a terrible idea. An absolutely terrible idea…..

    An absurd logic that if applied renders the High Court redundant.

    Not at all. It will just mean the HC’s time will not be wasted on a politicised guessing game. MP’s derive their right to sit from the completion of free and fair elections. To that extent, they all have an equal right to sit in the Parliament. They should not be subject to a post-election knock-out round that will inevitably be rigged in favour of the majority.

    So the high court is rigged and the constitution only apples when convenient.

    Right, thanks briefly. 😆

  23. Greensborough Growler
    Forget .
    Brexist, WAXIT is coming!

    It’s very much in the interests of all the States that Commonwealth/State finances be reformed…and that the original federal compact be revived. The current system pits the States against each other for shares of a diminishing income flow. It’s rubbish.

  24. The HC is not rigged. Far from it. But if it were to become a post-election supervising tribunal it soon would be.

    But any purported omni-audit process will certainly be rigged by the Parliamentary majority. MP’s sit by virtue of the results of elections. This is how it should be.

  25. Greensborough Growler
    BREAKING: WA Liberals have supported setting up a WAxit committee, 89 votes to 73. #wapol #auspol

    Build a wall NOW!

    The Liberals have just voted in favour of surrendering all their seats in the Commonwealth Parliament.

  26. Greensborough Growler
    BREAKING: WA Liberals have supported setting up a WAxit committee, 89 votes to 73. #wapol #auspol

    Build a wall NOW!

    We already have a fence…the rabbit-proof one.

  27. briefly @ #436 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 2:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    BREAKING: WA Liberals have supported setting up a WAxit committee, 89 votes to 73. #wapol #auspol

    Build a wall NOW!

    The Liberals have just voted in favour of surrendering all their seats in the Commonwealth Parliament.

    They are all seditious mutineers and should be tried for Treason.

  28. BREAKING: WA Liberals have supported setting up a WAxit committee, 89 votes to 73. #wapol #auspol

    So much for Team Australia. The “Liberals” will break anything that doesn’t give them exactly what they want.

  29. BREAKING: WA Liberals have supported setting up a WAxit committee, 89 votes to 73. #wapol #auspol

    Jesus, that’s hilarious! Talk about rebels without a cause.

  30. Greensborough Growler

    No probs, they left a space in the original documents for the then anticipated “EnZedin”. So a ready replacement for the loss of Sandgropia when it breaks away to form Ginadia.

  31. They have just declared themselves to be totally ineffectual. WA has elected mainly Liberal delegations for years. Now they are admitting they cannot serve WA at the national level. They may as well campaign for Labor candidates and be done with it.

  32. All Libs from WA should be referred to the HC under the section 44 provision about being having allegiance to a foreign country.

Comments are closed.