BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 13
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  2. **A joint US Presidential ticket wont happen. Those days are long gone.**
    Ides, I would hesitate to guess who the US public will choose as a rebound from Trump.

  4. SK

    I dont know enough about US politics to pick clear front winners on either the Dem or Repub sides. I know some people I think would be decent but I’m not across all the ins and outs.

    However with clear confidence I can say no joint ticket.

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/02/coalition-is-getting-some-things-right-but-theyre-buried-beneath-its-big-talk?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=241962&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

    I’m not a great fan of Kelly O’Dwyer, but she;s getting a rough ride from her Party atm.
    There is a push to take away her seat (unlikely, I think) and her achievement over super is drowned out by silly Kill Bill talk.

    With an electorate increasingly of the view that “the system” is rigged to ensure that the well-off stay that way while ordinary workers struggle, it is a mystery why the government doesn’t make more of concrete efforts such as this to make things a little bit fairer. One foot in front of the other governing. Getting things done.

    When it comes to super, that could also involve revisiting the $450 a month earnings threshold below which employers don’t have an obligation to pay super.

    A recent Senate inquiry heard evidence that this was being exploited by dodgy employers, who deliberately rostered staff so as to keep them under the threshold, or who defined ordinary hours in a restricted way, so that additional hours were classified as overtime and therefore did not count towards the minimum.

    O’Dwyer’s superannuation announcement got some coverage, but not nearly as much as the cartoonish efforts of the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, and the treasurer, Scott Morrison, to paint the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, as a “neo-socialist” leading “new red Labor” towards a dystopian future where we’ll all be ruined by high levels of taxation.

  8. I should clarify that when I say joint ticket, I mean independent/third party style but a P and VP sourced from the main parties. Perhaps with a deal – 4 years each.

  9. SK

    Maybe if the People’s Popular Front of Judea and the Judean People’s Front can work together they might cobble together a joint ticket.

  11. **Maybe if the People’s Popular Front of Judea and the Judean People’s Front can work together they might cobble together a joint ticket.**
    Even with a common enemy they couldnt unite. What have the Romans ever done for us?

  12. Lizzie:

    I do not think K O’D is a nice human but I do not like the way people were moving to challenge her preselection (especially when she was on maternity).

  16. “The problem is what they would call a “success” ”

    Yup. But….this is something that the Timorese have gotten pretty bolshie on so i would hope they have gotten a decent deal. With the Govt doing the full nasty on AS and other matters, they could use an instance of reasonable behavior about now.

  17. Post-Harvey life in Texas is not looking good.

    The prolonged misery from Hurricane Harvey peaked here Friday in the southeast corner of the state, where a crippled municipal water system left residents lacking running water, unable to flush toilets, desperate for basic sanitation and fearful for their health.

    Meanwhile, a massive fire sent up a towering pillar of acrid, black smoke from the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston hours after company officials said they could do nothing to stop 19.5 tons of volatile chemicals from igniting.

    Beaumont’s dire situation and the uncontrolled chemical fire near Crosby, Tex., provided vivid reminders of the cascading effects of a natural disaster: wind, storm surge, torrential rain, floodwaters and now all the secondary consequences, including industrial accidents, environmental contamination, and broad concerns about sickness and disease.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/01/harveys-wake-drifts-north-as-battered-coast-left-with-lingering-perils-and-staggering-recovery/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_harvey-7am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.992690fb4c05

  18. A joint US Presidential ticket wont happen. Those days are long gone.

    It never really was.

    After the ratification of the 12th Amendment, there have only been two pecularities regarding the President/VP partisan combination.

    The first was the case of John C. Calhoun, who was overwhelmingly elected VP by the electoral college in 1824, despite the electoral college being divided on who would be elected President. It went to the House and John Quincy Adams was elected President. Calhoun served as Adams’s VP and, in the 1828 election, ran as Andrew Jackson’s running mate and was easily re-elected VP (with Jackson easily being elected President) – meaning he served as VP for two different Presidents (who opposed each other bitterly.)

    The reason for this instance was that, after the collapse of the Federalists, the US political system essentially became a “one party system” and, in fact, the 1820 election only saw one candidate for President (the incumbent James Monroe.) So the 1824 election was more of a factional fight than a partisan one. (Incidently, the bitterness from this election combined with Jackson’s personal resentment to the party leaders who backed Adams over him was what led to him founding the Democratic Party, which would begin the 2 party system that US politics would, more or less, see ever since.)

    The second case was the more famous 1864 Lincoln-Johnson Unity ticket. This is often highlighted as some sort of gold standard “country first” decision. But, while it was a move to heal the political and regional divide of the country, it was also an attempt to placate concerns from moderates and loyal southerners that Lincoln wasn’t going to be radical or excessively punitive towards the South. It’s worth pointing out that the country was still in the midst of a literal civil war at that point, so it was a product of extraordinary circumstances (yeah, the US is pretty divided at the moment but not quite at “civil war” level… yet.)

    Also worth pointing out that Lincoln was assassinated shortly after beginning his second term and Johnson became President, which turned out to be a terrible thing as Johnson was unprepared, incapable and did not work very well with officials, cabinet members or congress. He also began prematurely winding back reconstruction efforts (while he is definitely not the only person responsible for this, he does have a share in the blame for the South being stuck in the rut it is today.) So, the “unity ticket” decision ended up backfiring.

    As for today, I don’t see why anybody would want to do this, not just because of political polarisation but because the Presidential risks having someone who’ll reverse their agenda become President and the VP risks serving a President whose agenda they don’t agree with (remembering that constitutionally, other than succession, the VP’s only official role is to break Senate ties if they ever happen.) It keeps being brought up every four years but it’s silly idealism that doesn’t really match political reality.

  19. Laura Tingle
    29 mins ·
    Young Andrew Probyn has his first outing as guest host on Insiders ABC tomorrow. First prize: he gets to interview Christopher Pyne. Second prize, he gets us on the panel: Lenore Taylor, Mark Kenny and me. We will be very reverential and not mention Police Academy

    Another sane Insiders panel! What on earth is going on?

  20. The Timor Sea dispute settlement does appear offcial, though the terms are not disclosed

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIssljXVYAEJuWI?format=jpg&name=large

    This episode will sit as a black mark on Australia’s name – dreamt up by Alexander Downer and approved by John Howard. In short, screw the wretched people of the poorest country on the planet, kiss the arses of the multinational oil and gas companies who demanded ‘certainty’.

    We should all feel ashamed that this was allowed to happen.

  22. confessions @ #167 Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 – 4:42 pm

    Post-Harvey life in Texas is not looking good.

    The prolonged misery from Hurricane Harvey peaked here Friday in the southeast corner of the state, where a crippled municipal water system left residents lacking running water, unable to flush toilets, desperate for basic sanitation and fearful for their health.

    Meanwhile, a massive fire sent up a towering pillar of acrid, black smoke from the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston hours after company officials said they could do nothing to stop 19.5 tons of volatile chemicals from igniting.

    Beaumont’s dire situation and the uncontrolled chemical fire near Crosby, Tex., provided vivid reminders of the cascading effects of a natural disaster: wind, storm surge, torrential rain, floodwaters and now all the secondary consequences, including industrial accidents, environmental contamination, and broad concerns about sickness and disease.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/01/harveys-wake-drifts-north-as-battered-coast-left-with-lingering-perils-and-staggering-recovery/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_harvey-7am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.992690fb4c05

    ‘God’ won’t answer their cries for help.

    The people need political leadership, of which their latest choice doesn’t have.

  24. Rex D:

    The Trump Administration has been accused of being slow to respond, but I think it’s too soon to assign blame or whatever. There’s still a ways to go yet in this crisis.

  27. Lizzie / IoM

    The story about K O’Ds seat is obviously part of the fight in the Vic State Lib Party but it being brought up again now is intriguing.

  29. Specifically, the Timor Sea outrage is where the border is between Australia and Timor Leste. The Law of the Sea says it is at the midpoint. Australia claimed the contintental shelf end should be the border, which Australia claimed finished at the ‘Timor Trench’, much closer to Timor Leste than the midpoint.

    Funnily enough, the Sunrise gas field just happened to fall on the Asutralian claimed side of the line. But expert marine geologists have long argued that the Australian ‘contintental shelf’ actually extends under all of Timor Leste and adjoining parts of the Indonesian archipeligo, and in fact has no merit as a concept.

  32. @confessions

    They are too slow, while Trump was out and about trying to get what he wanted (Tariffs I think it was) he didn’t action anyone back in USA to do something early when the hurricane was coming.

    He said something like ‘Do I have to cancel?’.

    Same thing when that Australian women got killed in USA while police chief was out and about?!

    Too long not to care.

  34. IoM

    I know next to nothing about the internals of the Vic Libs other than there’s been lots of stouches about control for a long while.

  35. sprocket_

    Have a listen to this recent LNL podcast. +1 To the National archives .
    .
    “Crossing the Line

    Kim McGrath spent the last decade working with former Victorian Premier Steve Bracks as a governance advisor to the East Timorese government.

    While she was there, Kim’s discomfort over Australia’s dealings over the oil issue grew.

    She started an investigation into the Australian government’s handling of the oil issue. What she discovered, sheds new light on Australia’s duplicitous dealings with East Timor.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/east-timor/8856172

  37. zoid:

    True, plus the parlous state of the US govt coffers means it is kind of hampered in terms of what aid it can offer to Texas:

    If the debt ceiling isn’t raised soon, the U.S. government will only have enough cash to continue funding its operations through September 29, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has told lawmakers. Appropriating emergency money to help with the Harvey response will accelerate that deadline by several days, Mnuchin has said.

    The U.S. government spends more money than it brings in through revenue, and it borrows money to cover the difference by issuing debt. But it can only issue debt up to a limit set by Congress, and the treasury is bumping up against that debt limit now.

    The Trump administration had more than $350 billion in cash reserves in January but has been slowly drawing that balance down in recent months to delay any problems with the debt ceiling. It had less than $70 billion left in cash earlier this week.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/09/01/white-house-requests-7-85-billion-for-emergency-harvey-aid-asks-congress-to-raise-debt-ceiling/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_harveyaid-1045pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.542fe56c2e54

  38. BK:

    Agreed. You’d think today’s Liberals would want to hold onto the few women MPs they have, not throw them under the nearest bus as is what is happening to KO’D.

  39. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised soon, the U.S. government will only have enough cash to continue funding its operations through September 29,.
    _________________
    So they’ll have to cut taxes even more. Oh. Wait!

  40. Seems funny to think that the US is in a problem with “only” 70 billion dollars left.

    70 billion to you or I would set us and our families up for 100s of years.

  42. So they’ll have to cut taxes even more.

    Yep you got it! That’s effectively what Republicans envisioned from the repeal and replace of ACA. Tax cuts plus estate tax cuts for the rich, reducing even further the amount of revenue the govt draws in.

    Trickle down economics: that creepy ex boyfriend who just refuses to go away!

  45. P

    State Branch is broke. They were/are? having a fight with their major donors (Cormack Foundation) Foundation has been giving money to LDP and FF. Kroger and the foundation dont get along either.

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