BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Rex Douglas @ #473 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 1:04 pm

    zoidlord @ #465 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 2:50 pm

    Yeah a success my ass LNP:

    )(Jerrah)( @UptightGamer
    ·
    18h
    Replying to @rachelbaxendale and @AlanTudgeMP
    52% of ppl forced onto card couldnt buy food, 44% couldnt buy essential items for kids because of restrictions :/

    At $10,000 per person to admin now it has gone up from $4,000 per person a few years ago.

    That statistic is very hard to believe.

    I’m an accountant and have been involved in systems development. Administering a system with the level of micromanagement involved in this card would be very expensive.

    There is also the fact that the L/NP gave the contract to a company with links to the L/NP without a tender. Not good for competitive tension.

  2. Reachtel is doing the auto-dialing in Queensland. State voting intention “if election held now”, and 2PP, and how did you vote in previous State and Fed elections, most important issue (one choice only), and one I haven’t heard before – have you ever voted Labor in the past?

  3. Shame on you Poroti. Brain Trumble isn’t worthy of standing in Gough’s shadow, never mind channeling him.

    __________________________________

    Channeling John Kerr more like it.

  4. Jack A Randa
    I’d assume the have you voted Labor before is probably to tunnel in on the demographic makeup of PHON and maybe the Aus Cons.

  5. So has Dutton accused the WA Liberals of being un Australian ?

    In this case it would be accurate.

    I wonder if this will be a topic in Question time ? Turnbull after all was at the state conference.

    I also thought Tingle was very weak parroting the governments line on GST distribution, saying the problem couldn’t be fixed until the problem was solved (presumably a couple of years down the track).

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #512 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #510 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    C@tmomma @ #509 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:13 pm

    Lyle Shelton‏ @LyleShelton

    So under gay marriage, what will be the consequence for Fathers’ Day?

    2 Fathers? Double the fun!

    Or, none!

    It’d be like all those kids that are born at Christmas. They never get to celebrate their birthday!

    Or, they celebrate both with Christmas dinner and cake! : )

  7. I keep wondering if Kim Jong Un is as short-sighted as he seems. Does he not realise that if he unleashes a bomb inside a ballistic missile that lands anywhere bar North Korea itself and it explodes, that he is assuring his own Mutually Assured Destruction?

  8. C@tmomma @ #518 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #512 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #510 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    C@tmomma @ #509 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:13 pm

    Lyle Shelton‏ @LyleShelton

    So under gay marriage, what will be the consequence for Fathers’ Day?

    2 Fathers? Double the fun!

    Or, none!

    It’d be like all those kids that are born at Christmas. They never get to celebrate their birthday!

    Or, they celebrate both with Christmas dinner and cake! : )

    I’m guessing you do not understand the pain and suffering that endured by these forgotten people.

    It’s a far more important issue than SSM which only affects 0.46% of the population. Yet, we have this never ending whingeing about equal opportunity for SSM. SSM can be sorted by legal recognition of relationships. It does not have to be called a Marriage.

  9. GG

    Yet, we have this never ending whingeing about equal opportunity for SSM.
    ____________________________________________
    It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history. When we get Marriage Equality it will be over. No more whinging; real issues can be dealt with. Note that this is not an issue in any political party other than the Liberals.

  10. antonbruckner11 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:07 pm Comment #485

    How does one become an “independent state within the commonwealth” Is that an oxymoron?”

    The WA Libs are like UK politicians that encouraged BREXIT ‘leave’ ideas. The convince voters to believe you can have all the benefits of the ‘club’ without paying for your membership.

  11. [Greensborough Growler

    It’d be like all those kids that are born at Christmas. They never get to celebrate their birthday!

    ]

    You really are a half empty person.

    Born on Xmas you’re guaranteed a full day party and a public holiday every birthday.

    That’s assuming you celebrate Xmas. 🙂

  12. I’m not ideologically opposed to genuine desires for independence/secession. I think the idea of “indissoluble” countries is farcical and in severe denial of the fluid and completely synthetic nature of nation states – if the population of a particular region and its population genuinely wants to go it alone, it should be able to have the discussion and be given the opportunity to peacefully and lawfully decide. Of course, it must also be done in a way that’s not “on a whim” or just “technically” passes but overall, I think it’s not treasonous or seditious to discuss.

    What I do have a problem with is the nonsensical justification from a lot of WA secessionists: people who are well-off and have plenty of influence in Canberra but don’t like the fact that the Commonwealth – which, in the past, has supported them – is giving a little bit of extra support to places that need it. It’s really a “F— you! I got mine!” movement. They might argue some geographical isolationism or whatever too, but that’s their core ethos – “we want to hoard our wealth.”

    Sitting in SA, I hear and read a constant barrage of bullshit about how SA needs to pull its socks up and fix itself – accompanied with threats to take more funding away. We’re told on a day-to-day basis that we’re leaners, yet every time an attempt at self-sufficiency is made, the Federal Government cry foul and run to the courts or make a GST distribution threat. Sure, we might be getting more from the Commonwealth than we’re giving but it’s only enough to keep running as is. Actually necessary investments to get us out of this rut are denied and we’re made to feel like we’re lucky to get money at all. Why do I bring this up? Because there’s one thing you don’t hear about in SA: an active secessionist movement. Because we still know it’s better for us and the region to be in the Commonwealth than be independent – because there are a lot of other benefits than monetary redistribution.

    Not trying to paint SA as saints here. We’re not. We’re just as motivated by self-interest as anyone else on this continent (or the rest of the world TBH) and were we in a lot better of a financial position, maybe we’d be the ones with the sudden secessionist ideals (yes, I know there’s some historicity to WA secessionism that doesn’t exist in SA.) I am merely bringing up SA as a contrast and say to WA: Have your secessionist discussions all you want but, as the “woke” kids say nowadays, be sure to check your privilege as you do.

  13. TPOF @ #523 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:47 pm

    GG

    Yet, we have this never ending whingeing about equal opportunity for SSM.
    ____________________________________________
    It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history. When we get Marriage Equality it will be over. No more whinging; real issues can be dealt with. Note that this is not an issue in any political party other than the Liberals.

    The concept of Marriage Equality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.

  14. Barney in Go Dau @ #526 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:01 pm

    [Greensborough Growler

    It’d be like all those kids that are born at Christmas. They never get to celebrate their birthday!

    ]

    You really are a half empty person.

    Born on Xmas you’re guaranteed a full day party and a public holiday every birthday.

    That’s assuming you celebrate Xmas. 🙂

    Talk to someone who lives that prejudiced experience and you will know it’s a reality and that your poor attempts at humour just re-inforce their alienation from the mainstream community.

  15. [Greensborough Growler

    The concept of Marriage Equality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.]

    As opposed to the Catholic Church’s position on marriage.

  16. The concept of “traditional marriage” is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.

  17. “The concept of Marriage Equality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.”

    —————————

    The concept of Marriage Inequality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.

  18. Barney in Go Dau @ #533 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:16 pm

    [Greensborough Growler

    The concept of Marriage Equality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.]

    As opposed to the Catholic Church’s position on marriage.

    Yeah, the whole debate is being run by religious zealots on both sides.

    I’m happy to be a hard centre.

  19. TPOF @ #523 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:47 pm

    It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history. When we get Marriage Equality it will be over. No more whinging; real issues can be dealt with. Note that this is not an issue in any political party other than the Liberals.

    Not all objection to SSM is religious. However, that is not the main point I wanted to make, which is that it is simplistic to say that “When we get Marriage Equality it will be over”. It seems increasingly evident to me that the hue and cry over SSM is largely a “proxy” battle for the full normalization of same-sex relationships – something which is still some way off (if indeed it can ever happen). I think there will be many who will be a tad disappointed when they discover that winning this particular battle is not the same as winning the war.

  20. Just Me @ #535 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    “The concept of Marriage Equality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.”

    ————————–

    The concept of Marriage Inequality is based on bullshit and only used by self important moralisers determined to prove their self righteousness.

    So, you see my point!

    Both sides are using tactics and arguments that divide the community.

  21. P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots. They don’t want gay people to be “normalised” – in other words treated with respect.

    I saw the same process going on in the debate over decriminalisation of male to male sex. The religious zealots responded by having unequal ages of consent. For no other reason than to tell gay people they were frowned on.

    Same deal with marriage. Keeping gay people from marrying (civil law) is just another way of saying “we don’t like your kind”. And no amount of twisting and turning by the likes of GG can ever hide that.

    I also agree that winning the battle over over marriage equality won’t change the minds of some people and won’t stop gay people being hated on by certain people. But it will help.

  22. While we might debate ME, it seems the Ersatz Labor government in Queensland cannot even manage reproductive rights for women. How did this case get to 20 weeks with no action by Qld Health? How does a state with an alleged Labor government still have laws against abortion that make such a legal mess possible? What prospects for an unwanted child born to an unwell dependent mother who does not wish to care for it? And how did the woman get pregnant while in custody?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-03/prisoner-abortion-denied-mental-health-grounds/8866696

  23. cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots. They don’t want gay people to be “normalised” – in other words treated with respect.

    I saw the same process going on in the debate over decriminalisation of male to male sex. The religious zealots responded by having unequal ages of consent. For no other reason than to tell gay people they were frowned on.

    Same deal with marriage. Keeping gay people from marrying (civil law) is just another way of saying “we don’t like your kind”. And no amount of twisting and turning by the likes of GG can ever hide that.

    I’m amused that you have no shame.

    Buy a mirror and look at the prejudicial piece of nonsense you are!

  24. Socrates:

    I’d make some comment about Qlders being stuck in the boonies, but the Libs in my state just approved a serious investigation into WA seceding from the country.

    We live in interesting times.

  25. I have long been concerned with the discrimination faced by people whose family name starts with a letter in the lower end of the alphabet. We always have to wait while people who through an accident of birth have a name starting with ‘A’ always get preference.

    When I was 9 I wrote to the Governor General suggesting that the start of the alphabet should alternate on a yearly basis.

    Viscount De Lisle’s equerry wrote me a very nice letter indicating the letter had been received

  26. Rational Leftist,
    The only thing you need to understand about WA Secession calls is that they usually come when WA is making a motza from Mining. That this one has come when they are not, but at a time when they are usually a mendicant State upon the rest of the Commonwealth of Australia and they feel they are missing out on their normal largesse from the rest of us, tells you all you need to know.

  27. The Quebecois indies acknowledged that if it was good enough for Quebec it was good enough for the Inuit who own most of nortern Quebec…

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