ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says the government is “very, very confident” the High Court will uphold the eligibility of MPs and senators to remain in Parliament
    Mr Turnbull said it was “ridiculous” to conclude crossbench senator Nick Xenophon was English, and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce a New Zealander, because of their parents’ backgrounds.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-confident-politicians-with-dual-citizenship-by-descent-will-survive-high-court-20170824-gy3un0.html

    Whatever happened to not commentating on cases before the court.
    Is Turnbull seriously seriously saying the judges may be “ridiculous” if they arrive at any decision but his preferred decision or am I reading this wrong?

  2. Gareth
    Grog Monster Abbott – I wonder if Wayne Swan will get an apology?

    More so the Australian people should get an apology, is this a one off or ongoing problem, is it an isolated case in the lnp, should there be ongoing monitoring for the lnp ala the centrelink trials.

  3. Al Pal

    What’s interesting about the Russian link investigation into Trump and his cohorts is the fact that nothing seems to have leaked from Mueller.

    ***************

    Totally agree with you Al Pal – I think it speaks highly of the quality of people he has chosen to join with him. I have read that many of his team of PROSECUTERS have given up positions paying in the million $ bracket – and are working 6 days/60 hour weeks . I think Trump is going to get blown out of the water when both Mueller and Schneiderman have done the lot of them over .

  4. BiGD
    It’s good to see the new generation of Liberals aren’t as supportive of the maintenance of inequality.
    Oh, wait …
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/25/religious-freedom-must-be-protected-before-marriage-survey-ends-liberal-senator-says
    Religious freedom meaning the right to denigrate any views but their own.
    For an organisation whose members are prohibited to marry (the irony of being marriage experts) and whose prime form of sexual experience is through raping children.

  5. Boris,

    Yeah, just like it was ridiculous to expect Joyce to ensure his declaration was accurate despite knowing his father was born in NZ.

    Turnbull is also trying to muddy the waters by comparing Joyce to X.

    They are two completely different situations;

    X could argue it was an oversight having done the right thing regarding the known conflicts,

    while Joyce was completely negligent in investigating any possible conflicts from an obvious potential source.

  6. Not enarmoured of the dog poo idea either. Civil disobedience and resistance have their place against bad laws, as Rosa parks’ actions attest, by why take out greivances against racists on San Francisco’s parks and gardens, the people who use them and the people who will have to clean up the mess.

    This sort of thing just gives the Right the chance to attack the protesters and their cause. Their argument is lost in attacks over how disgusting the protest was. I am not familiar with San Fransisco, but if it was the Domain in Sydney, the Daily Delecrap, shoutback radio and commercial ‘news’ would be screaming about disgusting lefties attacking nice people exercising their right of free speech, featuring a picture of a parks employee who had to clean up the mess. The racists would be let off the hook.

    The good people of San Franscisco need a rethink. Maybe the Right will only attract the proverbial two men and a dog (who they don’t clean up after). Maybe the right will leave a mess – these people hate the environment and they probably hate San Francisco.

    I think the best protest might be ridicule. They should work on that.

  7. Boris @11:17AM:
    Whatever happened to not commentating on cases before the court. That only applies to Labor, Greens and left-leaning cross-benchers.

    Is Turnbull seriously seriously saying the judges may be “ridiculous” if they arrive at any decision but his preferred decision Well, that’s what he said.

    or am I reading this wrong? No.

  8. Steve777:

    It also assumes a certain parity of power. It might work for a small family business and its employees, but a multibillion dollar corporation?

    What’s wrong with every McDonalds employee negotiating their terms and conditions individually? Bloody commo!

  9. briefly

    Who the ‘advertisement’ succeeds for will depend on numbers on the day.

    I’m betting the non racists will outnumber the racists – and social pressure is one of the best ways of dealing with racism.

  10. Barnaby is claiming to be 100% Australian when he knew his Father was a New Zealander. He is 50% Australian and 50% New Zealander.

    Turnbull’s argument appears to be that an Australian born dual citizen in not a dual citizen unless they apply for it.

    My question is, when did Barnaby apply to become an Australian instead of a New Zealander? That’s right, he didn’t because you don’t apply for a citizenship you already have.

  11. adrian,

    It doesn’t need a caption, the picture itself says everything you might want, much more succinctly.

    p.s. It must be an old picture, look at the tie.

  12. Yeah, Barney, I was hoping that the actual picture would be shown.

    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

  13. Mal desperate it seems. The internal party goings on must be ramping up for him to just blurt out a whinge about Abbott not attending a vote in the wake of the GFC.

  14. A sense of humour over The Ditch

    “Former Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce are frontrunners for the 2018 New Zealand of the Year Awards.

    Despite Turei’s fall from grace after she publicly admitted she lied to Winz about her living circumstances in the 1990s she has received the most nominations.

    Joyce, whose New Zealand-born father makes him a New Zealand citizen, came second.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11911051&ref=twitter

  15. I did an image search for that picture of Abbott, but only came up with the story in today’s Herald Sun about that incident when Abbott passed out after a merry time with Peter Costello and Kevin Andrews.

    In his own words, Abbott said the three were “in a mellow and reflective mood”, although I don’t think Abbott does ‘reflective’. “Visually similar images” included another of Abbott looking ‘mellow’, Vladimir Putin looking like … Vladimir, Trump with in mouth open and Nigel Farage.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/television/tony-abbott-admits-he-was-drunk-in-parliament-and-missed-crucial-gfc-bailout-vote/news-story/d90a4aab87a7503c4339c5aa21c88e35

  16. A former staffer of Nick Sherry explains want went on in 1992 post Sykes v Cleary

    “From memory, there were between 10 and 15 members and senators who could have been challenged under section 44(i). At the time, no challenges were made and no referrals from the Parliament to the High Court eventuated. How times have changed.

    MPs simply paid a fee to renounce their citizenship and got on with their parliamentary careers and the Government with governing.

    In the words of former Senator Sherry:

    “If there was a formal procedure, even if they had Australian citizenship, as a consequence of the High Court decision they were open to challenge—let us put it that way. I was one of those who, in a flurry of activity, dashed down to the British High Commission, sought out the details for renunciation of citizenship from Britain, paid the appropriate fee—which at that time was $50, I think—and lodged renunciation forms. There were quite a number of members of parliament at that time who had to go through that procedure.” (emphasis added).”

    https://insightstrategyblog-wordpress-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/insightstrategyblog.wordpress.com/2017/08/24/dual-citizenship-deja-vu/amp/

  17. zoomster

    The dog poo proposal has worked in that it has drawn attention to the protest.

    ‘Attention’ riiight …

    To the childishness of those who did it.

    It degrades their argument.

    All ‘attention’ is not good attention.

  18. CTar1

    At the moment, no one has done anything. It was a proposal put forward as an idea for a counter protest (and I’ve said a couple of times now that I don’t endorse it).

    We still don’t know if they’ll go ahead with dog poo-ing on the day, but we can be pretty sure that the counter protest will now draw out more people in support than it would have otherwise – which is ‘good’ attention, given that the best counter to racism is making it clear it’s not socially acceptable.

    Racism is still far more offensive and childish than dog poo ever will be.

  19. zoomster
    briefly

    Who the ‘advertisement’ succeeds for will depend on numbers on the day.

    I’m betting the non racists will outnumber the racists – and social pressure is one of the best ways of dealing with racism.

    I agree Zoom….this also draws attention to the need to find powerful models of anti-racist expression that people can very readily identify with and join. Anti-racist expression has got to entail something quite different from scuffling with the KKK in a poo-field.

    If we want to exemplify peace, inclusion and the celebration of difference, then we have to make that our expression. Let the racists star for contempt and loathing….that cannot be our calling.

  20. Mark Dreyfus opinion piece on S44

    “f the many astonishing things that happened in parliament and the high court over the last few weeks, there is one that I find the most mind-boggling – the willingness to label a part of the constitution as outdated, or irrelevant, because some MPs had not bothered to comply with it.

    Seriously. The five parts of section 44, including the prohibition on dual citizenship, have been in our constitution since federation. The wording has never changed. It should not be a surprise to any Australian, let alone a cabinet minister, that it exists – and that it is a requirement to comply with it.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/25/section-44-will-remain-its-the-government-that-goes-up-in-smoke?CMP=soc_568

  21. Kevin Bonham @ #3250 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:50 pm

    Those expecting enormous Labor wins at the next election should keep in mind that in 2007 Labor led by 55-45 or more (at times over 60-40) continually for most of the election year and still only won 83 seats.

    I suspect that this is because the big swings were in safe Liberal seats and safe Labor seats and the Libs were able to hold onto some of their more marginal sitting members via strong campaigning (and pork barrellng) . I know that certainly happened with John Howard’s “golde girls” like Trish Draper through the late 1990s early 2000s.

  22. An Australia Post mail centre in Canberra was evacuated in the early hours of Friday morning after a package containing white powder, addressed to the Australian Christian Lobby, was discovered.

    A spokesman for Australia Post confirmed to Fairfax Media that police HAZMAT units and the ACT Emergency Services Agency had conducted tests on an item received at the mail centre and that operations had now returned to normal.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-post-scare-after-discovery-of-white-powder-addressed-to-australian-christian-lobby-20170825-gy3xop.html

  23. lizzie

    you can’t exactly anticipate someone picking up a…bat in a statistics class,” he said.

    Studying statistical methodologies is definely the sort of thing that would make me feel “postal”!

  24. Kevin Bonham
    “Those expecting enormous Labor wins at the next election should keep in mind that in 2007 Labor led by 55-45 or more (at times over 60-40) continually for most of the election year and still only won 83 seats.”

    In 2007, Labor was coming off a very low base (60 seats IIRC), thanks to Latham’s effort in 2004. So a gain of 23 seats wasn’t a bad result.

    I agree though that 83 seats is quite a high watermark for Labor. No matter what the polls currently say, it will be hard to top that.

  25. More an new enrolments and updated enrolments.

    [An extra 90,000 Australians have added their names to the electoral roll since the announcement of the postal survey on legalising same-sex marriage.

    The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has released the data after Thursday evening’s deadline for voters to update their details ahead of the optional ballot.

    The AEC received 765,000 requests from eligible voters to either join the electoral roll or update their details to ensure postal ballot papers arrived at the right address.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-25/same-sex-marriage-90,000-people-added-to-electoral-role/8842670

  26. Ides of March
    “Gilmore in NSW also comes to mind. Been marginal for years (currently 0.73%) but hasnt gone to Lab for 25 years.”

    Joanna Gash was an enormously popular local member. Sudmalis much less so. Alas, the most recent redistribution increased the Lib margin in Gilmore, with a chunk of the Shoalhaven council area transferred to Whitlam (formerly Throsby).

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