ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. The racists will, doubtless, be getting ready to mail bags of shit to their enemies.

    They may well arrive armed with bags of shit ti throw at their opponents in SF.

    After all, if shit is good enough for them, it is good enough for everyone.


  2. Kon Karapanagiotidis‏Verified account

    Border Force in 2 wk time will ban visitors bringing fresh fruit/veggies/home cooked meals to refugees in Onshore Detention via @pamelacurr

  3. A more appropriate response is for dog owners to save up all the doogie doo’s,put them in a sealed brown paper bag with the words written on the outside……”Inside you will find what the citizens of San Fransisco think of racists.”

  4. The more important question is why are the neo-nazis going deep into enemy territory? San Francisco must be almost the complete antithesis of normal KKK territory. Surely SF doesn’t have any confederate statues for the neo-nazis to rally around?

  5. Boer

    I’m not particularly enamoured of the dog shit idea, but I’m interested in your tips about how to deal with racists through reason.

    There’s probably a Nobel in it for you.

  6. [Trog Sorrenson

    Not as mind-numbingly moronic as “Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi”.]

    It’s like listening a Liberal (thanks(?) lizzie for the reminder) trying to make a logical argument.

  7. zoomster

    Totally equivalent, I would have thought.
    No, definitely worse.

    Aussie, Aussie, Aussie = dumb zenophophic + Oi, Oi, Oi = stupid pig noise

    USA, USA, USA = is just dumb xenophobic

  8. While I’m sure there will be racists at the Patriots Prayer rally can we assume all are? I’d guess that many are just people frustrated with a lack of voice in politics and who still think that Trump is someone who can breakdown the current system. They see Trump as being attacked by the Deep State & MSM and are reacting. How do you think attempts to shut them down and prevent them having freedom of speech will go down? I think the idea is dumb as dogshit.

  9. Boerwar
    Lrt’s hope that the beach cleaners appreciate wading knee deep in righteous dog shit.

    Jack boots are great for wiping it up.

  10. The ACT government has offered to resettle refugees from Australia’s offshore detention centres on Manus Island and Nauru.

    A motion passed the unicameral ACT legislative assembly, without division, declaring “that the ACT government is willing and ready to settle refugees and asylum seekers from Manus Island and Nauru in Canberra as part of a national program of resettlement”.

    The motion, put by Greens MLA and minister for justice Shane Rattenbury, said the offshore processing centres were “inhumane and degrading” and had been unequivocally shown to be unsafe.

    “Refugees in these processing centres have been subjected to violent attacks, sexual violence, inadequate medical care, and harassment of mothers, fathers and children as young as six.”

    The motion was unanimously supported by Labor and Greens members in the chamber. Liberal members did not rise against it or call a vote, effectively abstaining.

  11. BK @ #300 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 7:20 am

    The chief of Orica says Australia is now paying “desperation prices” for gas.

    But … but … I thought Mal the Magnificent had fixed this!

    “What is happening today is myopic and unsustainable, cornering domestic markets with prices so much higher than the international prices will eventually lead to a bad outcome, price ceilings or other non-market measures,” said Mr Calderon, a former chief commercial officer at BHP.
    Related Articles

    “In other words, it is wrong to have local prices higher than what the producers can get overseas. There is no other commodity in Australia where this happens; not in iron ore, nor oil, nor coal, nor copper, nor bauxite, nor any other.

    “It is the gas price of desperation, not the fair tradeable prices that Australia should have.”

    One might begin to suspect that the domestic gas price is being held artificially high for some reason other than profitability. Now, let me think … what could that reason possibly be … ?


    A koala habitat 50 per cent larger than the Royal National Park has been destroyed by logging, according to a new conservation report.

    The report titled Clearing Koalas Away by conservationist Dailan Pugh, says more than 23,000 hectares of koala habitat near Coffs Harbour has been “virtually cleared”.

    “They’re hitting them really hard. We’re looking at about 40 per cent of koala habitat in state forests,” he said.

    “Their own modelling is showing these areas are important but they’re ignoring that.”

    Mr Pugh, an environmentalist for over 40 years, sourced the forestry data under freedom of information (FOI) legislation, in a bid to measure logging against known koala habitats.

    Last year, then-environment minister Mark Speakman admitted “intensive harvesting” on the North Coast was “not consistent” with regulations, and said the Environment Protection Authority was investigating.

  13. Just watched that train wreck Michaelia Cash interview that Lizzie posted at 9.18 (342) and was struck by how much Cash reminds me of some of the over the top characters in the ABC’s very funny program Utopia. I’m sure those who watch that program will know exactly what I mean. She just ploughs on in that over emphatic and exaggerated way she has, as if she is lecturing a classroom of primary school children, completely oblivious to the fact that the interviewer is tearing her arguments to shreds and making her look like an absolute caricature – which she is.

    I thought David Speers did an excellent job in preparing for the interview and was obviously more informed about the details of the agreement they were discussing than the Minister was. She was only interested in playing politics. Full marks to him.

  14. Question @ #373 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 10:00 am

    Gallup daily tracking of Trump’s support down to 34 after 3 days at 35. It seems the 36% barrier has been cracked.

    About time. Possible effect of Bannon’s new holy war against Trump?

    Trump is campaigning against himself….so many visible self-contradictions and an obvious inability to control his impulses. He is petulant, erratic, sulking, spiteful. It all shows. He’s a portrait of defeat in the making. Voters will run a mile.

  15. shiftaling @ #317 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 8:21 am

    I’m really disgusted by that dog poo thing. No way to build support if you ask me. Also illegal littering surely

    You have to understand San Francisco. The right-wing crazies know that they’re unwelcome and have no legitimate business there. They’re picking it as their location because they want to be provocative. Kind of like that group of white ladies who went onto a private black university wearing pro-trump outfits.

    If you go traipsing around looking for a fight, you should be grateful if all you get is some dog poo and flowers.

    Also the city has a fairly large number of dogs and a fairly small number of parks. The preexisting dog poo load can be significant in any of them, even without deliberate intervention.

  16. Darn…Cash seemed to me to be motivated by just one thing – a hatred of unions. This is a real weakness for the LNP. It is a form of caste-snobbery. People who need and join unions – who (for all the many reasons) seek to express themselves collectively – attract LNP rejection and punishment. This is conflated with Labor-Blaming and worker bashing.

    In the CFA contest, Cash is siding with those who enlist themselves without any payment ahead of those who (needs must) work for a living. It is an intrinsically anti-worker position to take.

    At a certain level, the very existence of unions threatens the LNP’s worker-success narrative. The LNP tell themselves that workers actually do not need each other but only need to work hard, that the market alone is all that workers require. When workers organise themselves into unions, they’re challenging LNP social mythology, as well as the political and economic interests of those that comprise and support the LNP.

    Anti-union convictions run very deep in the LNP…but they are not shared in the community as a whole. Far from it.

  17. GOP At War With Trump As He Attempts To Use Veterans As Props In Debt Ceiling Vote

    While the president complains that members of Congress are turning the debt ceiling debate into “a mess,” it is his irresponsible tweets that are turning the simple vote into a political game.

    Republicans in Congress were stunned on Thursday with Donald Trump’s tweets suggesting that a vote to raise the debt ceiling should be tied to a veterans benefits bill.

    With the chaos president in White House, it’s unlikely Republicans will be able to restore order within their own party anytime soon.

  18. [briefly

    The LNP tell themselves that workers actually do not need each other but only need to work hard, that the market alone is all that workers require…]

    Which is the fallacy of the their whole position, for if this was true Unions would not be required and probably never have come into existence.

  19. Trump blames fellow Republican leaders for debt ceiling ‘mess’

    President Donald Trump picked a new fight on Thursday with his fellow Republicans, saying congressional leaders could have avoided a “mess” over raising the U.S. debt ceiling if they had taken his advice.

    In the latest in a stream of criticisms that could undermine his aims to cut taxes, pass a budget and rebuild infrastructure, Trump sought to blame party leaders if Congress fails to agree to raise the cap on how much the federal government may borrow

  20. The dog poo thing is a terrible mistake. It is to descend to the level of the nut jobs and to affiliate oneself with a fouling.

    The people of SF can easily organise an alternative statement. There are millions of them. They can be seen and heard by standing for something far more than excrement.

    If the KKK want to make a statement – to attract attention to themselves – then the people of SF can use that to express all the contra-values. There can be pop-up music and theatre, rallies and all the rainbow colours, the flowers and the variety.

  21. CIA Director: Some congresspeople didn’t ‘appreciate the importance and gravity’ of Russia’s election meddling

    In a memo just revealed by BuzzFeed that was sent late last year, the director of the CIA told subordinates that he believed some congresspeople didn’t understand how deep Russia’s election-meddling went.

    According to BuzzFeed News, CIA Director John Brennan said members of Congress he briefed did not “understand and appreciate the importance and gravity of the issue.”

  22. Secret Service forced to pay $7,100 for ‘luxury’ port-a-potties in Bedminster for Trump’s vacation: report

    The Secret Service’s financial strains just got a lot crappier.

    According to USA Today, the president’s government-funded security force had to pay $7,100 for “luxury portable restrooms” at President Donald Trump’s resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. The high rental fees came during the president’s vacation at Bedminster from August 3 to August 21.

    “Leave it to Donald Trump to find a way to spend thousands of taxpayer dollars on a port-a-potty, ” Brad Bainum, spokesperson for the liberal American Bridge PAC, told USA Today. “This man is literally flushing our money down the toilet.”

    This expenditure was in addition to the $13,500 spent on golf cart rentals during the president’s Bedminster stay, the report continues.

  23. “At a certain level, the very existence of unions threatens the LNP’s worker-success narrative.”

    Yup. I have actually found it interesting reading some of Grace Colliers stuff in the Australian. She’s a toxic git….but does seem to push one of their underlying assumptions big time. That is this workers dealing direct with management.

    Fine on the surface, but it assumes that management is competent and values the employees. Not an assumption to be relied on if you look at the real world.

    I work in a, shall we say….publicly funded institution. At the moment there is a LOT of evidence / data that our management is seriously NOT competent, and the industrial relations environment here has been made incredibly toxic by management’s actions and attitude. At the moment the management offer for settlement looks to be a major stripping of entitlements AND a real terms around 3.8% pay CUT over the life of agreement, and they have been running proceeding to terminate our EBA. How you like them apples??

    A lot of the staff (both union and non-union people) feel they are actually the ones keeping the place running while management are off with the fairies in some never never land of strategic planning projections that are way unrealistic but seem to comfort them?? Upshot is that while a lot of us who actually value this place are still doing our best, there is a lot of the goodwill being burnt through.

    When push cometh to shove, the Libs idea of IR is firmly Master /Servant circa 1760.

  24. What’s interesting about the Russian link investigation into Trump and his cohorts is the fact that nothing seems to have leaked from Mueller.
    There’s plenty of stuff coming out of the Senate and Reps committees. There’s speculation about the Steele dossier. There’s reports of angry phone calls. And so on. But, nothing at all from Mueller and his vast team of lawyers and former prosecutors.
    To me, that’s a great sign. If, and when, it happens it will be explosive and consequential.

  25. briefly @ #387 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 10:40 am

    the people of SF can use that to express all the contra-values. There can be pop-up music and theatre, rallies and all the rainbow colours, the flowers and the variety.

    It’s San Francisco. There will be all of those things, you can be sure of that. Those are daily occurrences in that city; no neo-Nazis required.

    And in addition to all of those usual things, there will also be dog poo.

  26. briefly

    As I said, I’m not pro dog poo – like you, I think there are better forms of protest.

    My arguments are (i) racism is worse than dog poo; participating in a racist rally is worse than littering and (ii) reasoning won’t work (in this situation).

  27. Have revised my idea of Trump being preferable to Pence, based on the idea that he will cause the disintegration of the Republican party.
    The threat of nuclear war is just too great.
    On this basis alone, Trump represents a threat infinitely greater than terrorism.

  28. The dog poo proposal has worked in that it has drawn attention to the protest. More people know that there will be a racist gathering now than would have if dog poo hadn’t been mentioned.

  29. How can someone argue against the organization of labour when the organization of capital is the bedrock of the economic system? Sure, ban unions when you get rid of company structures, partnerships, trusts and every other form of “unionized capital”.

  30. Imacca @10:52AM “workers dealing direct with management.

    Fine on the surface, but it assumes that management is competent and values the employees. Not an assumption to be relied on if you look at the real world.”

    It also assumes a certain parity of power. It might work for a small family business and its employees, but a multibillion dollar corporation?

    A corporation is, of its nature, a combination. Its not individual managers negotiating with employees, it’s a huge conglomorate with wealth, power and when the L/NP is in power the Government behind it. Unions were formed in the 19th century to even up the balance.

    The “Liberals” are the political wing of the business establishment. Of course Big Business wants to negotiate ‘one on one’ with individual workers, ideally workers crushed with debt who are one pay packet away from penury. Hence they don’t like social security any more than they like unions. They want the whip hand in “negotiations”. They want workers competing against each other, not combining to advance their interests.

  31. Zoom….

    “Reasoning won’t work….”

    I agree. But the people of SF don’t have to reason with the unreasonable. They can use them as a platform – a catalyst – for the display of other values…. and they can invite America to join them.

  32. “They want the whip hand in “negotiations”. ”

    Oh yeah! Thats right where we are here at the moment. However, management are not getting it all their own way. At the moment awaiting the outcome of a FWA hearing just concluded while trying to have rational and reasonable negotiations.

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