Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.
Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.
The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).
UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.
Section 4 . . . a rather expansive Cartoon Corner Part 1
Cathy Wilcox at Cormann’s speech.
A ripper from Mark Knight as the citizenship case goes to the High Court for directions.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/277294d5429a11f16d068fc85c88f50f?width=1024
Great work from Andrew Dyson on the current state of Coalition leadership.
Mark David and two for one offers.
David Pope and a shotgun wedding.
Broelman on Abbott’s statues claim.
Must be time for Paul Zanetti’s performance review!
Another superb effort from David Rowe who is finding ways to include a little kiwi.
A contribution from the US explains the statue issue over there.
John Schindlers latest :
Can Trump Be Trusted With Nukes? National Security Insiders Lean Toward ‘No’
America’s future is perhaps in the hands of the generals in his inner circle
http://observer.com/2017/08/donald-trump-national-security-nuclear-codes/
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2
Yuk!!!
The NZ Herald’s cartoonist gives us Trump and Afghanistan.
Alan Moir and Turnbull’s precarious position.
David Pope and our chief spy with Duterte.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
Ron Tandberg with another Trump “achievement”.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
I love this one from Andrew Dyson.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
Jon Kudleka takes us to the High Court and sees some trouble for Malcolm Roberts.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/804157da93ba9663edb31520e4fac2d5
BK
Not only the ‘kiwi’ – Check out Rowe’s depiction of BishJnr!
You’ve got to laugh. Roberts isn’t sure whether sending the email or signing the form was his effective renunciation of Brit citizenship. Well, Malcolm, baby, if the email was effective, why did they send you the form?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/24/adani-to-fight-12900-fine-for-releasing-coal-laden-stormwater-into-sea?CMP=share_btn_tw
UK politicians who loudly advocated ‘BREXIT’ in a cavalier way should not expect to survive the fall-out.
Boris may well regret giving up his US citizenship.
The reality, I think, has already dawned on the politicians and is now leaking out to the UK public.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/24/case-britains-ties-europe-severed-falling-apart-brexiteers-migration-norway-option
lizzie
$12,900 fine … FMD
That they are challenging this shows that they are seeking to evade the conditions set on them right from the start.
CTAR1
There is no doubt that one component of the reduction is brain drainer.
The other component is food industry workers… at least one food company has gone broke and farmers are reporting increasing difficulties getting temp field workers.
The Brexit fit of madness may have been temporary but it is difficult ultimate to see it being undone.
Bw
Yep. And this is just in anticipation of the changes.
Fresh vegies from England’s country-side are going to become very expensive.
I’d thing the value of suitable land near the coast in the Netherlands, Belguim and France to be going up.
Unfortunately, as you say, I think the ‘turn back’ point is long gone. The remaining member states have put their arrangements in place.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-women-form-secret-womenonly-whatsapp-group-20170824-gy3rl2.html
‘Meanwhile, the Earl formally remained a member of the NSW Legislative Council until November 1850. He was not disqualified for having a foreign allegiance. His allegiance to Queen Victoria was no different from that of other members of the Legislative Council…’
Methinks the writer is trying to draw a comparison here, but it’s a false one. The good Earl would not be disqualified from being in a State upper house for having dual citizenship today. He would fail on residency grounds, however.
The states have their own Constitutions, with their own eligibility rules. What theirs allow is irrelevant when discussing what the Federal one does.
Thanks BK. My pick of the gen cartoons is Cathy Wilcox on the ‘class war’.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/san-francisco-dog-poo-protest-patriot-prayer-rally
CTAR1
Britain grows around six months worth of its annual food needs. Current production is mediated by EU – mediated energy prices, exchange ratespes, mobile cheap labour, free movement of transport, and subsidies.
Massive disruption coming up.
I’m really disgusted by that dog poo thing. No way to build support if you ask me. Also illegal littering surely
This line from Crowe’s article in the GG on young voters, identifies a key conceptual problem for them:
“Tony Abbott proved the Coalition could appeal to the young, lifting support to 41 per cent in the June quarter of 2012 as Julia Gillard’s colleagues slowly brought her down. Yet it took just 18 months in power for Abbott to drive them away. Support was at 28 per cent after the knighting of Prince Philip and the “empty chair” spill of early 2015.”
They still think they ‘won’ in 2013 on their appeal to voters.
It was a significant victory but they campaigned on Labor polices, even the NBN was effectively their NBN but cheaper.
People voted in spite of Abbot not for him. They need to learn that.
I find the racism thing more disgusting than dog poo, but I guess that’s just a personal opinion.
How to renounce British citizenship (after 2 minutes searching):
https://www.gov.uk/renounce-british-nationality
Dumb as dog shit?
What are right wing people? (A guide).
‘Simply take this one question test to find out if you are a right-wing person:
Do you think anybody could be great given a chance even if they are not white, rich or able-bodied?
A. No
B. Yes.’
https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/what-are-right-wing-people-a-guide-for-under-10-year-olds/
The dog poo thing is a carefully calibrated and relevant protest. As for pollution, it will be quite minor relative to the amount of shit on the beach once Patriot Prayer assemble.
…and that Rosa Parkes, breaking laws by not sitting at the back of the bus. I mean, really.
zoom,
Uppity women don’t know their place.
🙂
The ultimate platform against unreason is reason.
When you start hurling dog turds you have lost the war because you have lost control over the terms of the debate.
T
‘…carefully calibrated…’
Would that equate to ‘…surgical strikes…’?
Boer
Just like Mandela did, when he refused to renounce sabotage.
A smarter person than I could surely make a joke about poo-pooing on the prayer patriots parade.
…it’s foolish to pretend that those who are unreasoning can be reasoned with. It’s a dream left over from the Enlightenment.
Human beings are not inherently logical. Most of them resent being reasoned with, because they see that as patronising.
Z
False analogy?
Poo is the least of it. San Francisco is going full flower power, drag queens, walk-a-thons, and adopt -a-nazi money raising for the poor.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/san-francisco-dog-poo-protest-patriot-prayer-rally
Ides,
If you want a joke, go to your local Primary School.
I don’t see how it serves any purpose.
If we abandon reason we are as dogs.
Zoomster tu quoque. Disapproving of the littering is not the same thing as approving of racism, clearly
zoomster @ #330 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 9:07 am
as they chant USA USA USA
Boerwar
It’s about choice of weapons.
Fight fire with fire, and poo with poo.
shiftaling
You seemed far more disgusted by the littering than the racism.
A very insightful comment JR. Totally agree. But I doubt that the RWNJs will ever learn that lesson, at least not until they’ve been thrashed at the polls a couple of times.
Not as mind-numbingly moronic as “Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi”.
T
If you allow the enemy to decide the weapons of choice then you had better get ready for more than just a shitfight.
Trainwreck interview with Michaelia Cash. (I couldn’t watch it to the end.)
Boer
No. Mandela resorted to violent action because he recognised (and said repeatedly) that it was impossible to reason with the South African government. He stayed in prison because he refused to renounce saboutage as a weapon, and he refused to do this because he saw more reasonable approaches as ineffective.
Rosa Parkes didn’t reason with the bus driver or the other passengers.
Reason works in some cases. It doesn’t work in all, and in the ones where it doesn’t, other approaches sometimes do.
We don’t ‘reason’ with people about a lot of issues, where emotion is the main driver in particular. We deal with them by legislation or through social pressure.
If reason ruled, we wouldn’t need laws. We do because it doesn’t.
The application of turds to human political expression has a longish history.
As rhe floors and walls of secret police cells attest.
Yeah I’m a racist and I want to tell Rosa Parkes where to sit because I think a certain method of protest is counterproductive. I won’t be responding any further except to say I reject completely your characterisation of myself and my comment.
TS
‘Not as mind-numbingly moronic as “Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi”.’
Totally equivalent, I would have thought.
Boer
And who allowed the enemy to decide the weapon of choice? The protesters are the ones who chose their weapon.
The citizens of San Francisco are not Mandelas. The US is not the RSA
My main problem is it just makes them look petulant, dirty and degrades their message. But go ahead, accuse me of being a-ok with racism if it makes you feel like you had some kind of rhetorical victory.
I love the dog shit idea. I hope it’s knee deep.