ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Section 4 . . . a rather expansive Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Cathy Wilcox at Cormann’s speech.

    A ripper from Mark Knight as the citizenship case goes to the High Court for directions.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/277294d5429a11f16d068fc85c88f50f?width=1024
    Great work from Andrew Dyson on the current state of Coalition leadership.

    Mark David and two for one offers.

    David Pope and a shotgun wedding.

    Broelman on Abbott’s statues claim.

    Must be time for Paul Zanetti’s performance review!

    Another superb effort from David Rowe who is finding ways to include a little kiwi.

    A contribution from the US explains the statue issue over there.

  2. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Yuk!!!

    The NZ Herald’s cartoonist gives us Trump and Afghanistan.

    Alan Moir and Turnbull’s precarious position.

    David Pope and our chief spy with Duterte.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Ron Tandberg with another Trump “achievement”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    I love this one from Andrew Dyson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Jon Kudleka takes us to the High Court and sees some trouble for Malcolm Roberts.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/804157da93ba9663edb31520e4fac2d5

  3. BK

    Another superb effort from David Rowe who is finding ways to include a little kiwi.

    Not only the ‘kiwi’ – Check out Rowe’s depiction of BishJnr!

  4. You’ve got to laugh. Roberts isn’t sure whether sending the email or signing the form was his effective renunciation of Brit citizenship. Well, Malcolm, baby, if the email was effective, why did they send you the form?

  5. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/24/adani-to-fight-12900-fine-for-releasing-coal-laden-stormwater-into-sea?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Kelly O’Shanassy, the Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive, said Adani was now “having a laugh” after they “barely got a slap on the wrist” for the environmental licence breach.

    “For a multibillion-dollar multinational to challenge such a meagre fine shows real contempt for the Queensland and Australian public,” she said.

    “If this is their attitude now, what will it be like it they are allowed to construct a massive dirty new coalmine that would contribute to the destruction of our Great Barrier Reef and threaten our planet with more carbon pollution?”

  6. UK politicians who loudly advocated ‘BREXIT’ in a cavalier way should not expect to survive the fall-out.

    Boris may well regret giving up his US citizenship.

    The reality, I think, has already dawned on the politicians and is now leaking out to the UK public.

    “Something big is slowly stirring in the undergrowth of British politics. Fact by fact, announcement by announcement, the case for Britain to remain in the European Union’s single market and customs union is growing stronger and more irresistible by the day.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/24/case-britains-ties-europe-severed-falling-apart-brexiteers-migration-norway-option

  7. lizzie

    $12,900 fine … FMD

    That they are challenging this shows that they are seeking to evade the conditions set on them right from the start.

  8. CTAR1
    There is no doubt that one component of the reduction is brain drainer.

    The other component is food industry workers… at least one food company has gone broke and farmers are reporting increasing difficulties getting temp field workers.

  9. Bw

    Yep. And this is just in anticipation of the changes.

    Fresh vegies from England’s country-side are going to become very expensive.

    I’d thing the value of suitable land near the coast in the Netherlands, Belguim and France to be going up.

    Unfortunately, as you say, I think the ‘turn back’ point is long gone. The remaining member states have put their arrangements in place.

  10. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-women-form-secret-womenonly-whatsapp-group-20170824-gy3rl2.html

    But in a sign that not all the women approached were happy with the gesture of Coalition sisterhood, a screenshot of the WhatsApp group has made its way to Fairfax Media.

    It shows the group’s members include: NSW backbenchers Lucy Wicks and Ann Sudmalis, NSW Senators Concetta Fierrvanti-Wells and Fiona Nash, Victorian backbenchers Jane Hume and Julia Banks, Cabinet Ministers Julie Bishop and Kelly O’Dwyer, South Australian Anne Ruston and the WA Senator Linda Reynolds.

    The leak suggests an unhappiness with an emergence of so-called identity-based factions within the Coalition, rather than on traditional ideological lines like wet or dry. The Coalition traditionally rails against what it calls “identity politics”, for example, when cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer accused the then Labor minister Nicola Roxon of leading a “handbag hit squad” to attack the former opposition leader Tony Abbott along gender lines.

    Ms O’Dwyer is a member of Ms Henderson’s group. Neither women responded to Fairfax Media’s inquiries.

  11. ‘Meanwhile, the Earl formally remained a member of the NSW Legislative Council until November 1850. He was not disqualified for having a foreign allegiance. His allegiance to Queen Victoria was no different from that of other members of the Legislative Council…’

    Methinks the writer is trying to draw a comparison here, but it’s a false one. The good Earl would not be disqualified from being in a State upper house for having dual citizenship today. He would fail on residency grounds, however.

    The states have their own Constitutions, with their own eligibility rules. What theirs allow is irrelevant when discussing what the Federal one does.

  12. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/san-francisco-dog-poo-protest-patriot-prayer-rally

    When a group of far-right activists come to San Francisco to hold a rally this Saturday, they will be met by peace activists offering them flowers to wear in their hair.

    Also, dog shit. Lots and lots of dog shit.

    Hundreds of San Franciscans plan to prepare Crissy Field, the picturesque beach in the shadow of the Golden Gate Bridge where rightwing protest group Patriot Prayer will gather, with a generous carpeting of excrement.

    “I just had this image of alt-right people stomping around in the poop,” Tuffy Tuffington said of the epiphany he had while walking Bob and Chuck, his two Patterdale terriers, and trying to think of the best way to respond to rightwing extremists in the wake of Charlottesville. “It seemed like a little bit of civil disobedience where we didn’t have to engage with them face to face.”

    Tuffington, a 45-year-old artist and designer, created a Facebook event page based on the concept, and the dog owners of San Francisco responded in droves. Many have declared their intention to stockpile their shitpiles for days in advance, then deliver them in bags for the site.

  13. CTAR1
    Britain grows around six months worth of its annual food needs. Current production is mediated by EU – mediated energy prices, exchange ratespes, mobile cheap labour, free movement of transport, and subsidies.
    Massive disruption coming up.

  14. This line from Crowe’s article in the GG on young voters, identifies a key conceptual problem for them:
    “Tony Abbott proved the Coalition could appeal to the young, lifting support to 41 per cent in the June quarter of 2012 as Julia Gillard’s colleagues slowly brought her down. Yet it took just 18 months in power for Abbott to drive them away. Support was at 28 per cent after the knighting of Prince Philip and the “empty chair” spill of early 2015.”

    They still think they ‘won’ in 2013 on their appeal to voters.
    It was a significant victory but they campaigned on Labor polices, even the NBN was effectively their NBN but cheaper.
    People voted in spite of Abbot not for him. They need to learn that.

  15. The dog poo thing is a carefully calibrated and relevant protest. As for pollution, it will be quite minor relative to the amount of shit on the beach once Patriot Prayer assemble.

  16. The ultimate platform against unreason is reason.

    When you start hurling dog turds you have lost the war because you have lost control over the terms of the debate.

  17. …it’s foolish to pretend that those who are unreasoning can be reasoned with. It’s a dream left over from the Enlightenment.

    Human beings are not inherently logical. Most of them resent being reasoned with, because they see that as patronising.

  18. Poo is the least of it. San Francisco is going full flower power, drag queens, walk-a-thons, and adopt -a-nazi money raising for the poor.

    He is raising money for ten local organizations that reflect the diversity of San Francisco, including the Transgender Law Center, Disability Rights and Education Defense Fund, and Muslim Advocates. A similar Wunsiedel-inspired effort has been launched by Jewish Bar Association of San Francisco, which has raised more than $100,000 for the the Southern Poverty Law Center under the banner “Adopt-a-Nazi”.

    “When the dust has settled and the smoke has cleared,” Jones said, “I hope that the appearance of rightwing extremists in San Francisco will raise a significant amount of money for the people they seek to harm.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/san-francisco-dog-poo-protest-patriot-prayer-rally

  19. Boerwar

    Would that equate to ‘…surgical strikes…’?

    It’s about choice of weapons.
    Fight fire with fire, and poo with poo.

  20. They still think they ‘won’ in 2013 on their appeal to voters.
    It was a significant victory but they campaigned on Labor polices, even the NBN was effectively their NBN but cheaper.
    People voted in spite of Abbot not for him. They need to learn that.

    A very insightful comment JR. Totally agree. But I doubt that the RWNJs will ever learn that lesson, at least not until they’ve been thrashed at the polls a couple of times.

  21. Boer

    No. Mandela resorted to violent action because he recognised (and said repeatedly) that it was impossible to reason with the South African government. He stayed in prison because he refused to renounce saboutage as a weapon, and he refused to do this because he saw more reasonable approaches as ineffective.

    Rosa Parkes didn’t reason with the bus driver or the other passengers.

    Reason works in some cases. It doesn’t work in all, and in the ones where it doesn’t, other approaches sometimes do.

    We don’t ‘reason’ with people about a lot of issues, where emotion is the main driver in particular. We deal with them by legislation or through social pressure.

    If reason ruled, we wouldn’t need laws. We do because it doesn’t.

  22. The application of turds to human political expression has a longish history.

    As rhe floors and walls of secret police cells attest.

  23. Yeah I’m a racist and I want to tell Rosa Parkes where to sit because I think a certain method of protest is counterproductive. I won’t be responding any further except to say I reject completely your characterisation of myself and my comment.

  24. My main problem is it just makes them look petulant, dirty and degrades their message. But go ahead, accuse me of being a-ok with racism if it makes you feel like you had some kind of rhetorical victory.

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