ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. A definite case of ‘they’re out there’ –

    A Canberra Liberals politician says the Safe Schools program has “made schools harmful” by traumatising students, damaging their innocence and asking them to sexually fantasise about their own gender.

    Ms Kikkert said she had spoken to Canberra children who left school crying after being taught material from the program

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/canberra-liberal-says-students-being-groomed-by-safe-schools/8840158

  2. I think by now the Press must have interviewed every lawyer in Australia with any constitutional law expertise at all.

    A very ‘trendy’ trade at the moment.

    At least they’re asking people who know what they’re talking about, rather than just random people at a shopping centre or something 😉

  3. Just an amendment to my point about slavery before. I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge post-abolition de facto slavery in Australia. Including forced labour of Aboriginal people and, of course, human trafficking problems and exploitation of migrant labour, not to mention the occasional story of a pizza place paying its employees with food or something like that.

    Slavery, involuntary servitude and other similar problems do still exist in Australia, my post was merely about the de jure slave trade, that was formally abolished in the 19th century, which I believe the quoted tweeter was also referring to. I apologise in advance if anybody reads it as an attempt to whitewash Australian history or downplay any such issues today.

  4. –Now any single judge is bound by applicable decisions made by any appeal court made anywhere in Australia.–
    Really? Binding on State law? Actually, that explains a recent Development Act ruling I was following. The majority judges seemed reluctantly to follow a QLD ruling. The minority wanted to ignore it.

  5. Barrister Robert Newlinds SC said Mr Roberts did not concede to being a citizen of any country other than Australia.

    https://amp.couriermail.com.au/news/national/citizenship-saga-high-court-directions-hearing-on-barnaby-joyce-mps-dual-citizenship/news-story/a45928357daad943ecb7033a85ea0572

    Didn’t Roberts once claim he was a “sovereign citizen”?

    Ah yes, here it is…

    One of Australia’s new senators, One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts, sent a bizarre affidavit to then prime minister Julia Gillard in 2011 demanding to be exempt from the carbon tax and using language consistent with the “sovereign citizen” movement.

    Anti-government, self-identified “sovereign citizens” claim to exist outside the country’s legal and taxation systems and frequently believe the government uses grammar to enslave its citizens.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/one-nation-senatorelect-malcolm-roberts-wrote-bizarre-sovereign-citizen-letter-to-julia-gillard-20160804-gqlesa.html

  6. CTar1

    Many moons ago in UnZud the topic re why acts of violence on field if committed off field would result in charges became a topic de jour. From increasingly vague memory the argument was that those running on to the field were voluntarily and knowingly entering a space where such violence may occur. A bit of ” you pays your money and you takes your choice/chance”.

  7. C@t

    Catching up with your earlier comment. My brother in law expressed the same sentiment to my sister and their two children. Respect……

  8. victoria @ #169 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 8:31 pm

    C@t

    Catching up with your earlier comment. My brother in law expressed the same sentiment to my sister and their two children. Respect……

    It will stand them in good stead. Children are very impressionable and if dad told them to do it, they will!
    Mum will have to help them through it by not getting down, except in her quiet moments, when the kids are asleep. But then it’s up and about again the next day and back to normal! To the new life they will carve out for themselves. : )

  9. Newly added to my post:

    The primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

  10. Latika M Bourke
    18 mins ·
    This is interesting. Labor’s threatening to challenge decisions made by Ministers Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce if the High Court disqualifies them as MPs because of their dual citizenship.

    Someone mentioned the other day that the environmental lobby in particular were eyeing this angle off in relation to some of this govt’s decisions on climate change and renewable energy.

  11. Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton has raised fears political commentary around banning the burqa has inspired criminals to use the religious garment to carry out armed robberies.

    A non-Muslim woman, 21, has been charged over an alleged armed robbery in Croydon, disguised in a burqa or niqab.

    Mr Ashton said it’s the only time in his decades-long policing career he can recall a burqa being used as a disguise.

    It came only two days after One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson wore a burqa in parliament in a widely-derided stunt about security.

    Mr Ashton told 3AW he hopes it’s not the start of a criminal trend.

    “I’m not sure whether in this case that offender was following an example or something that she’s watched in Parliament,” he said.

  12. Vic:

    I don’t know if something new has arisen with your family, but if you’ve had more tragic news, then my thoughts are with you and yours.

  13. I didn’t realise I was able to change that setting myself, and it may be that the powers that be wouldn’t have wanted me to. So can I ask people not to load all the comments just because you can. The less it gets used, the more chance no one will notice that I’ve done it.

  14. Mind you the new comment and new post aren’t in the right order but the rest of the comments are at least readable.
    Well done William.

  15. Latika M Bourke
    18 mins ·
    This is interesting. Labor’s threatening to challenge decisions made by Ministers Fiona Nash and Barnaby Joyce if the High Court disqualifies them as MPs because of their dual citizenship.

    I should think so too!

  16. UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%)

    This suggests the Liberal PV must be very close to 30%..surely their worst polling result in many a long year…

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