ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Bearing in mind that one of Trump’s primary aims is said to be keeping the stock market going up he says some very stupid things –

    President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans rebuked him on Wednesday after his threat to shut down the U.S. government over funding for a border wall rattled markets and cast a shadow over congressional efforts to raise the country’s debt ceiling and pass spending bills.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-idUSKCN1B31RZ

  2. There you go! The Catholic mafia flexes its muscle.
    Catholics are being told that casting a “no” vote in the “vital” same-sex marriage postal survey will ensure the “health and future” of Australian society.
    Melbourne Archbishop Denis Hart has written an open pastoral letter urging Catholics to vote in the Marriage Law Postal Survey, ensuring their viewpoint is heard “on this vital public issue”.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/just-say-no-archbishop-denis-hart-rallies-catholics-over-vital-wedding-poll-20170824-gy36z7.html

  3. Senator Malcolm Roberts’ barrister concedes he didn’t fill out renunciation form until AFTER election.
    ___________________
    So what does that say about Roberts’ veracity?

  4. SK

    “But where there is little local case law it can have weight.”

    UK precedents on their VAT were extensively used here when GST was implemented.

  5. BiGD

    “has been caught out with his father’s quirky British citizenship.”

    This status may have been advantageous when applying for immigration to Australia.

    At least Xenophon definitely had a go at clearing up his citizenship.

  6. So the Commonwealth SG will back in Canavan, Joyce and Waters, argue against Roberts and all seem to agree Ludlam is gone. The Deane observations in his minority judgment will be to the fore.

    Presumably SG will back in Nash and Xenophon.

  7. mikehilliard

    Don,

    I can’t sign in through the Crikey homepage or the Mesma page but can at the Bludger home page here.

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

    What I do is bookmark that link, launch my browser and go directly to it, sign in at top right which takes you to the Crikey homepage, close that then launch Bludger again through the above bookmark and hey presto I’m logged in. Big pain in the arse but works. Using safari though.

    Thanks Mike. It seems there are other issues. I can’t update to Sierra, which apparently I need to do, because I can’t get to the apps store. And Chrome apparently tried to update and couldn’t.

    I guess I’ll just have to get used to Firefox.

    Thanks for your help.

  8. Canavan represented by the SG in the Howard years, David Bennett, Roberts by Eddie Obeid’s civil barrister and Joyce by a barrister of Asian descent

  9. I’m surprised at the 44% and 53% strong support figures for ‘banning’ the burqa and drug testing welfare recipients, respectively. Do they try to find the most right-wing sample possible?

  10. Player One @ #66 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 5:57 pm

    citizen @ #62 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 5:53 pm

    Julie Bishop has continued the government’s attack on Bill Shorten, calling him Labor’s most left-wing leader in 50 years.

    And this is a bad thing … why?

    And Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop lead a Liberal Party/LNP that is the most Right Wing in 50 years!

    I know which one I would rather have.

    Anyway, who listens to Julie Bishop any more without laughing?

  11. shellbell

    I was reading the bit of transcript you posted earlier from the HC and got to the end before the thought struck me “Hang on … Mr Rose QC but isn’t he …

  12. citizen @ #62 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 3:53 pm

    And of course JBishop continues the personal attacks on Shorten:

    Shorten ‘reckless, dangerous’
    3:57PMGREG BROWN
    Julie Bishop has continued the government’s attack on Bill Shorten, calling him Labor’s most left-wing leader in 50 years.

    So Julie Bishop is comparing Shorten to Gough Whitlam? I don’t think Ms Bishop has succeeded in delivering the insult that she intended. Australia will be able to consider itself lucky if Shorten becomes half the leader that Whitlam was.

  13. There is a bit of what I suggested might be argued in the SG’s outline to the court today along the lines of whether Sykes allows someone not to know about their o/s citizenship if they were born here.

    If the HC adopts that I will champion my greatness. If the HC rejects the argument I shall deny having ever raised it.

  14. the Sykes special count request got thrown out, as did Free’s request in the Jackie Kelly office of profit case.

    Which makes on ask, what is the crafty old bastard Tony Windsor up to? Does he have some new line of argument? Or is he just wanting to russle Banyard’s jimmies?

    Perhaps some cross examination to elicit perjury?

  15. CTar1

    I got the impression you worked with or around Sir Maurice Byers and Gavan Griffiths.

    If so, did you work around David Bennet QC, and if so again, did you understand a word he said.

    PS good luck with your health

  16. I doubt the HC will allow any cross-examination. I am not sure if court one even has a witness box.

    Merkel QC has told Windsor we need some evidence to prove Joyce should have known about o/s citizenship. He has suggested the application form should have that effect.

  17. I disagree Shellbell. If you read the transcript helpfully provided by Sprocket earlier, it’s clear the Chief Justice and some of the lawyers contemplate the possibility of evidence being given. The CJ even referred to the fact that the hearing could last longer than the proposed two days if cross-examination were to occur.

  18. Senator Roberts is a lying sentinent being. Which we knew from his Climate Change denialist antics, but his chronology of his citizenship exploits had his barrister making a fool of himself in the HC today.

  19. Alias

    The evidence will be documentary.

    $500 to the charity of your choice if there is oral evidence.

    I would be surprised if there has been much if any oral evidence in a case involving the Full Bench since the 1950s

  20. BishJnr says that during his visit to WA Shorten MUST make clear what he will do about WA’s GST ‘woes’.

    I don’t recall her saying that Turnbull should have done so on his recent visit there.

  21. [I doubt the HC will allow any cross-examination. I am not sure if court one even has a witness box.]

    Always good to set precedents 🙂 .And to see Barnyard in the dock explaining what he knew, when, and why he didn’t do anything about it would be worth the cost of installing a suitably enclosed seat in the HC

  22. Richard Chirgwin @R_Chirgwin
    ·
    12m
    It’s pretty damn gorgeous: the only reason Australia ended slavery was its racist constitution, which is now troublesome for white pollies.

    Because notv Aussie enough?!

  23. [CTar1
    BishJnr says that during his visit to WA Shorten MUST make clear what he will do about WA’s GST ‘woes’.

    I don’t recall her saying that Turnbull should have done so on his recent visit there.]

    … because we haven’t got any ideas, so our only hope is to pinch theirs.

  24. [CTar1
    BishJnr says that during his visit to WA Shorten MUST make clear what he will do about WA’s GST ‘woes’.
    I don’t recall her saying that Turnbull should have done so on his recent visit there.]

    Sounds like she is resigned to Shorten becoming PM.

  25. citizen @ #123 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    Discord at Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal over editor-in-chief essentially directing staff to go soft on Trump

    http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/23/media/wsj-trump-internal-strife/index.html?utm_source=CNN+Media:+Reliable+Sources&utm_campaign=ac4f60156f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_06&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e95cdc16a9-ac4f60156f-82942177

    Some people are entirely too willing to tolerate a monster so long as it’s ostensibly on their side. Reminds me of this, for some reason:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tblSHxkqVco

  26. It’s pretty damn gorgeous: the only reason Australia ended slavery was its racist constitution, which is now troublesome for white pollies.

    Pretty sure slavery was abolished in the British Empire well before the establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia and its constitution.

  27. Robert Newlinds, SC, acting for Senator Roberts, successfully argued for more time and suggested there was confusion over when the British authorities accepted his renunciation of dual-citizenship, something the senator has said would be made clear in the High Court hearings.

    Mr Newlinds said his client did not concede he was a citizen of any other country but Australia, but told the court the case would centre around the dates he took steps to clarify his citizenship with British authorities.

    Senator Roberts had emailed the British Home Office before the election to renounce his citizenship, but did not hear back, and emailed again to “renounce” his citizenship.

    Senator Roberts was sent a form by the Home Office after the election, and sometime later, the British authorities accepted his renunciation.

    Mr Newlinds said it remained unclear whether the Home Office “were accepting the renunciation by the form, or the earlier email”.

    Senator Roberts had previously said he had all the necessary documentation to prove he was eligible to stand at the last election.

  28. I thought posters here were entitled to remain somewhat anonymous!

    C@tmomma .. The term “court reporter” is ambiguous. Have you ever seen those people who operate stenography machines, who sit next to the judge? Amazing. They still have them I think.

  29. shellbell

    I know next to nil about him first hand. I’d gone off to AGS at around the time he was appointed. I recall some being uncomplimentary about him is about all.

    After having an amateur read of one of his opinions I asked our Chief General Counsel about one part of it.

    The reply I got was not only did he not understand that bit but there were other parts he didn’t understand either!

    (tks for the health wishes)

  30. Shellbell, you may be right as things unfold .. but you agree the CJ and lawyers clearly contemplate the possibility of cross-examination in that transcript right?

  31. Alias

    I think Merkel was for it but not the CJ.

    Seven judges trying to work out what is going on in Barnaby’s mind is hard enough.

    Remind me when I lose the bet.

  32. Matt Canavan and Malcolm Roberts change their stories in High Court citizenship hearing

    How amazing that when faced with going to court this happens.

  33. I think by now the Press must have interviewed every lawyer in Australia with any constitutional law expertise at all.

    A very ‘trendy’ trade at the moment.

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