ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Little change on voting intention in a ReachTEL poll that also covers Section 44, the burqa, drug testing of welfare recipients, and likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage survey.

Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one). There will have been a further forced response question for the undecided, but the numbers for this have been a bit elusive lately – I will hopefully be able to get hold of them tomorrow, which will then allow me to report definitive primary votes excluding the undecided, and also a two-party preferred result based on previous election preferences, which will be stronger for Labor than the headline result. The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull with a slender 52-48 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Among the other questions posed were likelihood of participation in the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, which recorded results of 79% likely, 10% somewhat likely, 4% somewhat unlikely and 7% very unlikely, with the oldest cohort apparently the least likely to participate. Contrary to YouGov, the poll did not find strong support for those embroiled in the Section 44 saga standing down, with 39% saying they should and 50% saying they should not. A question on whether the burqa should be banned found 44% strong support, 13% support, 12% opposition and 19% strong opposition. For drug testing of welfare recipients, the results were 53% strong support, 15% support, 9% opposition and 11% strong opposition.

The poll was conducted yesterday, presumably from a sample of around 2300 (UPDATE: Make that 2832).

UPDATE: As related by GhostWhoVotes, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Coalition 34.5% (down 2.7%), Labor 36.7% (up 1.6%), Greens 10.3% (up 1.5%) and One Nation 10.4% (down 1.3%). That would actually transfer into a blowout Labor lead of 54.5-45.5, based on 2016 preference flows. However, taken together with the YouGov results noted in the previous post, it does seem respondent-allocated preferences are proving considerably more favourable to the Coalition. This may suggest that a 50-50 split of One Nation preferences, as per the 2016 election, is unduly flattering to Labor, as most of the support One Nation has gained since the election has come from former Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

699 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar
    I was amused by the Turnbull line on Stalinism and toppling statues too. Get your smear right Malcolm! Stalin and most dictators were famous for errecting statues of themselves. The toppling usually starts the minute they are deposed. Ignorance, thy name is Liberal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/25/changing-colonial-statues-is-stalinist-says-malcolm-turnbull?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=240891&subid=11549147&CMP=ema_632

  3. I think the split in the Right vote will certainly cost them office even without an improved result for Labor. The attrition in the LNP vote to ON appears likely to cost the LNP 2.0-2.5% on a 2PP basis…more than enough for the Libs to lose. Add an improved Labor primary performance as well and the makings exist for a very substantial win by Labor.

    Where Howard was able to make an appeal to ON-susceptible voters, it’s obvious that Turnbull cannot. Indeed, his leadership is one of the reasons that ON have regained a foothold. The problems for the LNP are that any other potential leader – Dutton or Abbott – will cost them far more votes in the centre than they could hope to retrieve from ON.

    ON will help deliver power to Labor.

  4. Turnbull and JBish now on PM being pompous and trying to scare the bejeebus out of the population about the threat from Isis rising in the Phillipines and the like and reference to Australia as the guard dog of the US on a tape released by same.

  8. Socrates

    On the statue thing, Truffles leapt out without a parachute. Speaking before he thought it through, I suspect, because the Libs’ theme of the week is communism/socialism and any other ism they can toss around.

  9. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 1h1 hour ago

    “If we make it harder for people to be successful there will be fewer successful people,” Cormann said.
    Sheer genius. Promote that man.

  13. “IF PHON are polling 10% AND there is another deal at the federal poll perhaps we can assume a 0.606 flow of PHON to L-NP? ”

    Deal between the Libs and ON at Federal election?? FFS, the W.A. deal was so toxic on the ground why would they even think of going there??

  15. Question
    William made the obvious point that we need to know the demographics of the newly enrolled and if it shows that there’s a swag of younger voters, who are more likely to be left of centre, that there could well be negative implications for the coalition at the next election.

  18. jen….i think ON would be nothing but flattered….they will hope they might succeed the LNP as the voice of Tory Australia…that the disaffected will come running to them for comfort and shelter…

  19. Simon Katich

    If you play the tape backwards there is a message from Bilbo. There is considerable speculation as to whether it is a primal scream, grinding of teeth or a performance of ROFLMAO.

  22. Whoa! Have not been able to access Poll Bludger for the past four days!

    Have only now gotten in whit the help of a VPN – is this the new norm?

  25. Lizzie
    So will we here Turnbull rail against crony-ism and paternal-ism?

    To me the really dangerous Isms are Catech-ism, Conservat-ism,, Fascism and Libertarian-ism 🙂

  26. Changing the PHON prefs from 0.505 to 0.606 on the Reachtel numbers makes the L-NP TPP change from 45.6% to 46.7%.

    To get to 47.6% (and round up to the headline 48%) they need almost 70%.

    Given the WA election happened after the ‘trump bump’, AND they had a preference deal, AND still only managed 60%, this seems unlikely to actually happen.

  27. imacca
    “IF PHON are polling 10% AND there is another deal at the federal poll perhaps we can assume a 0.606 flow of PHON to L-NP? ”

    Deal between the Libs and ON at Federal election?? FFS, the W.A. deal was so toxic on the ground why would they even think of going there??

    They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    I can’t help feeling that the LNP have brought this all on themselves. Years and years of dog-whistling has nourished malice, envy and aggro on the Right. But far from harming Labor, it threatens to pull the LNP to pieces. This is their reward.

    In the same way as Right-hate politics is going to consume Trump in the US, it will lead the LNP into self-loathing.

  30. imacca
    Deal between the Libs and ON at Federal election?? FFS, the W.A. deal was so toxic on the ground why would they even think of going there??

    Well yes. The point I am trying to make is the Reachtel respondent allocated preferences are probably not very accurate.

  33. Question
    Changing the PHON prefs from 0.505 to 0.606 on the Reachtel numbers makes the L-NP TPP change from 45.6% to 46.7%.

    To get to 47.6% (and round up to the headline 48%) they need almost 70%.

    Given the WA election happened after the ‘trump bump’, AND they had a preference deal, AND still only managed 60%, this seems unlikely to actually happen.

    I think the Trump effect was negative for the Right. I think it sent voters to Labor….fear worked against the Tories…fear of the upheaval, the doubt and the shock that Trump represents.

  34. Simon Katich
    I miss Miss Jane.
    “It’s upside down Miss Jane!”

    “That’s it Miss Jane… turn it around… it’s Tony Abbott missing a division.”

  35. Good evening all,

    Turnbull is a idiot. His continued attack on Shorten over his citizenship and now demanding he produce evidence is simply a lose lose for Turnbull. The shrillness is now turning into a complete embarrassment. The longer Shorten ignores Turnbull the more shrill Turnbull will become and the more out of control he appears. Turnbull is losing focus and it is simply a stupid tactic from him. But he is too arrogant and vindictive to realise.

    It would not surprise if Shorten and labor are simply waiting for the HC to confirm what ” reasonable steps ” involve and bed down a rolled gold S44 interpretation. Once that is done and hopefully Joyce and others are voted off the island by the HC and the procedures labor has in place are therefore indirectly given a tick of approval then Shorten may decided to call Turnbull out and he and other labor members release supporting documentation confirming how much of a idiot Turnbull has been. Or else Shorten may just continue to ignore Turnbull and drive him even more shit crazy.

    Whatever labor decides to do is a slap in the face for Turnbull. Turnbull simply has no idea.

    Cheers.

  36. Vogon Poet @ #495 Friday, August 25th, 2017 – 2:11 pm

    Grimace :
    “A further 675,000 people had updated their electoral details, and 165,000 transactions were yet to be processed as of Thursday night, the AEC said. In total, almost 1 million Australians had either enrolled for the first time or updated their details.
    Once all transactions are processed, the number of new voters should easily exceed 100,000. Electoral Commissioner Tim Rogers said he expected the total proportion of Australians on the roll, which was 95.3 per cent on July 31, to reach a “record high” once processing was completed.”

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/extraordinary-100000-new-voters-join-electoral-roll-boosting-hopes-for-yes-campaign-20170825-gy466w.html

    Thanks. I’m at work so I haven’t seen any online news today.

    It’s been a bad day and those numbers have really brightened it up for me!

  37. Totally agree briefly,

    I especially don’t think Trump’s self aggrandising style works with Australians at all. Mind you I didn’t think it would work for Americans either.

    However, the excuse given for Reachtel’s crap Headline TPP is that perhaps since the election, the PHON preference flows to the L-NP have increased.

    PHON did get a big lift about the time of the US election and the L-NP vote dropped. I am using the WA election, which happened later, to show the effect wasn’t that big.

  41. How many people ordinarily enroll if a election is due within say 4 – 6 weeks?

    Are new enrollments then greater or less than approx 100,000?

  42. How ironic – the Libs couldn’t do the right thing by allowing a free vote in Parlt. The wasteful referendum loads up an extra average 700 voters per seat to help give them the defeat they deserve come next election.

  43. So much blow back on so many levels for our LNP friends over their stupid postal survey. Not only will they get a resounding yes which they’ll then dither with, but also a whole world of non Lib voters just enrolled to vote them out 2018/19.

  44. Fulvio

    From the article.

    The result is notable because it has only been 14 months since the last general election. By comparison, 132,000 new voters enrolled in the lead-up to the July poll.

    Less, but I think however the enrolment this time is largely by young people who historically don’t vote LNP.

  46. Tories/ LNP/nut jobs are all the same, they leave everyone to pickup the bill!

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    1h
    Boris Johnson concedes UK will have to pay for Brexit

  47. Yes Trumble is an idiot.

    Shorten drove Abbott mad by refusing to engage with his stupidity. Now he’s driving Trumble mad by not engaging with his desperation.

  48. Election by Christmas? Not a good look at all!

    Rob Oakeshott @RobOakeshott1
    ·
    23h
    Main argument from rule-breakers today in HC was Consitution needs to be changed to fit them. Not strong law. Possible election by Xmas.

  49. Re new enrolments: Australia has about 300,000 births per annum. Taking this a proxy for the number of Australians who turn a particular age each year, say 18, that would approximate the number of people becoming eligible to vote each year. That’s about 25,000 per month.

    We need to add naturalisation. In 07-08, 107 662 people were approved to become Australian citizens by conferral, descent or resumption (http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/0910/AustCitizenship). That won’t have changed much, so let’s say another 10,000 per month, giving 35,000 all up per month.

    Given those stats, 100,000 new enrolments in a couple of weeks is pretty good.

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