I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.
I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.
The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).
Barney in Go Dau @ #396 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:11 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NNOrp_83RU
Rex Douglas @ #380 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 3:54 pm
Isn’t every member “possibly” ineligible in the sense that you mean?
I think a lot of people would have problems with definitely or probably ineligible members continuing to vote. And rightly so.
But possibly ineligible, where the possibility has arisen because someone has basically said “you’re assumed to be a foreign national until you prove that you aren’t” and offered no proof to back up their own claim? I don’t think that can or should be a legitimate concern.
Otherwise I say Turnbull is “possibly” ineligible because he hasn’t presented any documents proving that he never sought or attained citizenship from another nation. How on Earth can he still be sitting as PM and voting on legislation with his eligibility under such a cloud?!?
And the next person I see “possibly” stole $10,000 from me, because they won’t be able to present me with any documents proving that they haven’t. So I’ll settle the matter by politely liberating them of their car, and then we can call it even.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-22/fiona-richardson-to-leave-vic-parliament-tumour-diagnosis/8831282
Probably already been posted, but this is really sad news. Hope she beats it back.
Alias is actually a Rex Douglas alias..
It’s not a constitutional crisis unless and until the High Court makes a decision that declares it such.
In law, Sykes and Cleary decided those cases only. While the rules of precedent strongly suggest that most or all of the spate of recent parliamentarians who have discovered they had dual citizenship were invalid candidates, the High Court has made no decision at all to that effect at this point in time. Unless (and that’s a big ‘UNLESS’) and until it does all of the affected parliamentarians were lawfully nominated and elected and all, other than the two who have resigned, continue to be members of the Parliament.
alias @ #386 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:04 pm
You mean, he hasn’t used your exact form of words, so…’fishy’?
O….K….
[alias
Thanks Guytaur.. Can you point to where Adam Gartrell said this? Did he say he had some Shorten’s documents?]
Gartrell has said that every time he has approached a Labor Member with questions on this they have outlined the process they went through to deal with this issue.
This has satisfied him that there is no point in further digging.
This is opposed to Government members who deny that there is any issue and as such they have no details to provide to demonstrate how they dealt with the issue.
Hence he keeps digging on them.
I think it’s more of ethical and transparency issue than a constitutional crisis.
And we know that LNP have none of those.
a r @ #402 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:18 pm
An audit would settle the matter.
If the duopolized parliament refuse to conduct an audit, the Governor General should step in.
Good afternoon all,
I am certain Shorten would not give a ratz arse what some liberals, commentators and others are demanding from him.
Turnbull has been challenged by Shorten to ” piss or get off the pot ” and it appears Turnbull had decided to get off the pot if his wimpy response today is any guide. Turnbull is now in a no win position.
To add to his drama Katter has stated that he will be seeking a one on one meeting with Abbott when parliament resumes to discuss his options. It will not amount to much but it is the perception that counts and just another distraction for Turnbull.
Cheers.
Oh goody, back to Bill Shorten’s citizenship.
Yes, I’m one of the ding-a-lings, but not a complainer, about Bill.
I just reckoned Bill should’ve gotten it out the way. And be done with it. There’s much bigger fish to fry, in terms of policy.
But wait, there’s more . . .
Because of Tony Abbott’s dithering over the topic way back when, and because he’s an inveterate liar, I don’t give any credibility to the recent release of the so-called doc purporting to show when he relinquished his Brit citizenship.
Labor, to me, is the equivalent of women in general. You have to prove yourself a gazillion better than any man, to get any credit. Likewise with the msm. Labor is held to a different, sterner, absolute standard, than the sycophants from the LNP.
—
So all of you who see it as a clever political tactic, all I can see is Bill Shorten tarnishing himself (further) with the suspicion that he has something to hide.
And when I say “tarnishing himself further”, I mean according to the MSM. They’re never going to give Labor a free ride, a free sprinkling of stardust, like they do with the LNP and its propaganda they spew forth on a daily basis.
You can sort of understand why Hawke and Keating went with soothing the savage beast of Murdoch et al.
Hope that makes my position clear as mud.
Rex
An audit would settle the matter.
__________________________________________
No it wouldn’t. See my post about the High Court having to deal with each matter. Even where the member or senator has resigned, the question is still uncertain. Only the High Court, sitting as the Court of disputed returns, can declare someone’s election invalid.
kezza2,
I just reckoned Bill should’ve gotten it out the way.
And then the Murdoch minions and their lackey, Turnbull, could have moved on to demanding documents from all the other Labor MPs with ‘questions to answer’.
Yeah. Nah.
Kezza2
Hope that makes my position clear as mud.
_______________________________
Perfectly.
But this whole issue will be sorted by the end of the year. Unless there is an election before the CoDR (i.e., the High Court as the Court of Disputed Returns) determines the cases before it and any other cases thrown up in the near future, how Bill looks at the moment will not matter one whit.
TPOF @ #412 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:26 pm
Until an audit is carried out the HC cannot settle the matter.
Rex Douglas @ #409 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:22 pm
With that much, I tend to agree.
If the Constitutional requirement is that dual-citizens cannot stand, there should be a more thorough/formal/unified vetting process that all candidates have to go through. Letting them police themselves and trusting them to read and fill out a form correctly obviously has not worked.
C@t
Sure, and days later, the question of Bill’s citizenship is still on the boil.
Why make it a topic of conversation?
As for: “And then the Murdoch minions and their lackey, Turnbull, could have moved on to demanding documents from all the other Labor MPs with ‘questions to answer’.”
So what!
According to Labor experts here, Labor has everything ship-shape.
Release it all. Get on with it.
Good analogy.
Richard DiNatale can actually do something useful and write to Peter Cosgrove and ask that he intervene.
C@tmomma
kezza2,
I just reckoned Bill should’ve gotten it out the way.
And then the Murdoch minions and their lackey, Turnbull, could have moved on to demanding documents from all the other Labor MPs with ‘questions to answer’.
Yeah. Nah.
____________________________________
Exactly.
And the bonus is that the longer the press and Malcolm keep trying to smear Labor, the longer this stuff stays on the front page and the longer the public will have their noses shoved into the continuing existence of this whole sorry mess, and especially that most high profile of dual citizens, Barnaby Joyce.
DTT
You left out an important category: idiots with an irrational conviction that voting for Hilary would lead to Armageddon.
**the longer this stuff stays on the front page and the longer the public will have their noses shoved into the continuing existence of this whole sorry mess**
I dont see it as a bonus. The Coalition have long considered anything that disengages the population or lowers their opinion of politicians is at worst a draw for them.
America sucks when life all you do is war:
Brian J. Karem @BrianKarem
·
9h
Met a man today who served in Afghanistan 16 yrs ago -now says his son serves there. Let that sink in as you support perpetual war
You think the coalition media lackeys will leave it at that if Shorten reveals his documents?
They will see it as a win because he caved in to their pressure, and then they’ll move to the next target.
Coalition politics 101, it writes itself.
‘Pressure is growing on Bill Shorten….’ – yeah pressure from you idiots. Rinse, recycle.
Until an audit is carried out the HC cannot settle the matter.
__________________________________-
Of course it can – by clarifying the extent to which Sykes v Cleary applies to the current and similar cases, none of which have the same facts as the two candidates in Sykes.
Both those candidates in Sykes were foreign citizens who came to Australia as adult migrants under the citizenship of their birth places and became naturalised Australians as adults. None of the cases we are looking at now and none that appear to possibly exist have candidates with as clear a consciousness of having held a foreign citizenship. Only Canavan is questionable.
There may be an argument for an audit depending on what the High Court decides is the actual law after processing the cases that have already been referred to it, but until then all an audit will do is keep this thing roiling along with no benefit to anyone.
I still simply cannot see any benign reason why any of them, Shorten included, would not provide documentary evidence of renunciation, where the question is raised.
One ALP rep did pursue Abbot, and many here, in the media, and elsewhere were also “demanding” he show the proof, as was I. This is just the same.
That.is quite a reasonable question to ask, of any member, “what was the process you went through to be certain you comply with S44”.
As a public office holder, this is a fair question. I would be interested to know the different responses between the parties.
C@t and TPOF
I bow to your judgement, although I disagree.
Obviously, a tactician I would not make.
I hope you’re right (as in correct)
cud chewer @ #373 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 1:41 pm
I haven’t done a detailed projection based on population growth. I looked at how many enrolments happened during the 2016 election period, which were a little under three years worth of catch up, then did an extrapolation of that and applied it to a the little over one year since the 2016 election.
All things being equal, the number of enrolments and updates should be a bit over a third of what they were at the 2016 election. They are both substantially more than that, and the enrolment period has not yet closed, and we have to take in to account the lag of posted forms.
Police in America come up with all sorts of excuses:
@SkyNewsAust
·
6m
Police say there was criminal activity that led to the use of tear gas to disperse anti-Trump protesters. MORE:
I dont see it as a bonus. The Coalition have long considered anything that disengages the population or lowers their opinion of politicians is at worst a draw for them.
____________________________________
It’s always a disadvantage for the party in power, because it demonstrates lack of control. It has hurt Labor more when it has been in power in the past because of the hysteria whipped up by very few media outlets in existence, but this still does more damage to the people who are currently paid the big bucks to manage things.
alias
Shorten continues to look silly over this citizenship issue. Today, I heard him on radio going hard with the line, wtte: “If Turnbull has any evidence that I am a dual citizen then he should put up or shut up.”
I think the point you miss is Shorten is having fun playing with Turnbull’s head.
If shorten had issues he would have taken up Turnbull’s offer for a joint solutions; he didn’t; not hard to work out the rest.
Jolyon
No that was covered by point 8.
Still true of course but Trump lacks the ability to follow through.
Has probably avoided war with Russia (I said probably)
China seems now to be full throttle although they will attack vi the fringes – NK and Pakistan
@Peter Love
Do you remember what happened with Obama?
Obama proved his birthplace, and then still got accused.
The same thing will happen to Shorten.
Do you remember what happened to Shorten during the Royal Commission?
Which LNP spent something like $60-$80 million of tax payers money for nothin ?
The USS McCain was not hit from the rear as reported.
The damage is on the port side and is symmetrical.
This means that either the McCain veered into the path of the tanker or the tanker veered into the McCain. Reports of the latter having happened at the exact moment the McCain’s steering failed are interesting…
Give the McCain is reported to have suffered multiple steering failures I know where I would start.
Two more pints. The damage had the tanker been travelling at normal speeds would have been far greater. It appears to have had time to order engines to be reversed. The damage is consistent with the tanker not being fully loaded. Both are bits of good luck.
Oh. And there is no way the entire crew of the McCain can fit on the bridge. As reported.
Simon Katich @ #418 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:37 pm
Exactly.
Anything, anything at all, to distract from the massive problems the LNP has will do them.
It’s all relative.
Barney in Go Dau
alias,
I imagine Bill would love nothing more than to have the Government try and send him to the HC, especially if they have no evidence.
Would give Labor the go ahead to go open slather on the Liberals. Be a few back room boys and girls licking their lips in anticipation.
zoidlord @ #430 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 4:40 pm
They would say that, wouldn’t they?
Watching live, I didn’t see any commotion before the tear gas was deployed. Doesn’t mean there wasn’t any, but the police should provide some proof to back up their claim. There were certainly enough cameras rolling. If criminal activity occurred, it’s almost certainly on video.
Boerwar
…sounds like a plan!
Shorten also cited the fact (the other day) that despite showing records, a large chunk of disbelievers automatically said Obama’s was fake.
And I have seen some of the left-wing wowsers on twitter say that Abbott’s ‘letter’ is a fake.
Shorten made it explicit that he would not feed the trolls (my words). If anyone had any evidence the contrary, they would have produced it by now.
@A R
Especially after the death of an Australian.
The Right, having comprehensively stuffed up something as basic as citizenship, is doing screaming Birther Gambit on Shorten.
The Right’s media is in full cry.
The Right’side pathetic concern trolls are busy. All they want is for Shorten to be reasonable.
Put up or shut up.
Meanwhile, yet another incompetent Right winger has surfaced. It turns out that incriminating facts are not the only thing that this particular incompetent has lost touch with.
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor
·
9m
Made submission to the Court of Disputed Returns regarding candidate eligibility at 2016 election ..Court will decide standing tomorrow
Zoidloid
Obama produced his birth certificate, settling the matter, silly as it was. Any further regurgitation of the issue by his opponents only served to make them look like idiots.
JW
I am close to just letting autocorrect fucked stuff up.
The comparisons between S44 (i) questions and the birthment movement in the United States are quite fatuous and do Shorten no credit.
==========
I would think Windsor would undoubtedly have standing in the High Court hearing, however Brandis seems to have made clear the Commonwealth won’t necessarily cover such costs.
frednk,
I doubt Labor would want to get into that game and anyway they don’t have the numbers in the Reps to do this and would need cross-bench support in the Senate.
Police say there was criminal activity that led to the use of tear gas to disperse anti-Trump protesters.
__________________________________
The CNN reporter on the spot said it kicked off when some bottles of water were thrown at police.
jenauthor
We’re not America.
This is not a birther movement.
As far as Abbott is concerned. because of his reticence to release his “renunciation date”, he came across as being less than honest about it; if not outright lying. And, I’m not on twitter. And I’m not a left-wing “wowser’, whatever that is.
Do you believe Abbott?
Funny, despite everything that was hurled at Gillard, not once was her citizenship questioned. And she was born in UK.
@Peter Love
Instead he still lost right?