YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  1. CC

    As noted by posts below. We have evidence that young voters are hardest to enrol. We knows the younger voters are more progressive thinkers.

    This is very bad news for the LNP.

  2. CC

    I also think this is the first time MTV has had a get out the vote campaign. Sure to have an impact along with other youth media.

  4. Guytaur I need evidence that this isn’t simply bringing forward enrollments. If it is then it makes no difference at the next election.

  5. CT

    Yes I do recall. A failure of our media to report. A drug on cancer having such success would have been front page news from the first claims of the potential let alone waiting for results.

  6. We knows the younger voters are more progressive thinkers.

    I seem to remember that it depends a lot on gender in the 18-24 age group.

  8. @ cud chewer.

    No doubt many/most of these enrollments are merely bringing forward ones that would otherwise take place later and we will see low enrollments in the lead up to the next federal election. But probably some are not. We might get a bit more of an idea what the breakdown is when we see enrollments in advance of next election.

    But for there to be more enrollments per day since the 2016 election than between 2013 and 2016, when net overseas migration peaked in 2013 and has been dropping since, implies that we likely are seeing more than ‘business as usual’.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3412.0Main%20Features52014-15?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2014-15&num=&view=

  9. CC

    See comments below. The results are projected. Given results we have seen as posted by the AEC today its a big loser for the LNP

    Results projected by us here from previous enrolments at elections.

  12. cud chewer @ #348 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 1:07 pm

    I’m not sure we should get too excited about the surge in enrollments. What evidence is there that that isn’t simply bringing forward enrollments that would have occurred at the next election?

    Because the numbers are way out of sync on expected numbers based on what happened with enrolments at the last election.

  13. Whether it is bad news to one side of politics or not I think our democracy is enhanced by more individuals participating.

    Wan#ers going out to protest after the event when they didn’t bother to vote I think is about as ‘look at me’ as it comes.

  17. CT

    I agere more voters on the rolls the better. I just think bonus that its looking like a win for the progressive side of politics.

  20. Drug testing of people who receive payments from the government.

    Let’s see we have govt employees covered with many workplaces being very hard line on this i.e. the Department of Immigration and Border Protection.

    We have welfare recipients lined up to be subject to it and can expect it also to be hard line according to the Minister.

    We seem to be missing one group??

    Thinking, thinking, thinking …

    Yep, Eureka! I’ve got it – Politicians.

    Are there any good reasons put forward that make our representatives immune from testing so they are less inclined to be voting in Parliament or being responsible for making policy or running govt agencies while ‘stoned’?

  22. Newsweek: Watch the moment a former Trump spokesperson said slavery is “good history” on Fox News bit.ly/2wkvs44 pic.twitter.com/j1dANqUqfF

    Fox news. Still number one with racists.

  24. CTar1 @ #370 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 3:35 pm

    Are there any good reasons put forward that make our representatives immune from testing so they are less inclined to be voting in Parliament or being responsible for making policy or running govt agencies while ‘stoned’?

    Don’t forget the ‘love’ angle. We love our politicians. If they’re struggling with substance abuse we want them to get the help they need to stop and get back to being productive members of society.

  25. a r

    Depressingly bad on euthanasia.

    A lack of any such process (and hopefully a quality robust one) reeks of a society that could not be considered as ‘advanced’.

  26. Gillian Triggs has unloaded on the Turnbull government, labelling its actions “disgraceful”, and accusing it of abusing executive power and manipulating the truth.

    In her first public speech since stepping down as president of the Australian Human Rights Commission in July, Professor Triggs attacked Coalition government ministers for interfering with the judicial system and for destroying the integrity of parliament by peddling “alternative facts”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gillian-triggs-labels-turnbull-government-disgraceful-accuses-it-of-peddling-alternative-facts-20170823-gy29zp.html

  28. Simon Katich @ #354 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 3:13 pm

    We knows the younger voters are more progressive thinkers.

    I seem to remember that it depends a lot on gender in the 18-24 age group.

    Not true.

    I have 2 in the 18-24 age group. One is Progressive, the other is Conservative, and proud of it. He thinks that the world hasn’t benefited much from The Age of Aquarius.

  34. [Rex Douglas
    So why won’t Turnbull and Shorten agree to an audit of mp’s citizenship ?

    There seems to be only one answer…]

    You’re losing focus Rex.

    Why the sudden attack on Malcolm?

  35. Rex Douglas

    Perhaps the Governor General should refuse to give assent to legislation until an audit is carried out… ?
    ____________________________

    Perhaps we should just toss the Australian Constitution in the bin and bring back a king (Rex, that is) to rule us all. You know it makes sense!

  37. Barney in Go Dau @ #384 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 3:59 pm

    [Rex Douglas
    So why won’t Turnbull and Shorten agree to an audit of mp’s citizenship ?

    There seems to be only one answer…]

    You’re losing focus Rex.

    Why the sudden attack on Malcolm?

    This is a constitutional crisis.

    This parliament is now tainted by the possibility of members continuing to sit while their citizenship is in doubt.

    The Governor General may have to force the issue.

  38. Shorten continues to look silly over this citizenship issue. Today, I heard him on radio going hard with the line, wtte: “If Turnbull has any evidence that I am a dual citizen then he should put up or shut up.”
    Wouldn’t the line be a lot more compelling if he said: “Turnbull hasn’t got any evidence that I’m a dual citizen, because there is none. I’m not one. End of story.” Something about Shorten’s whole approach on this issue just sounds fishy to me.

  40. @Alias

    The fact is that Shorten he has said it with confidence,

    Unlike members of LNP, who were trying to hide, deny, and eventually attack Labor on the citizenship debacle.

  41. Rex

    So you’re ok with members voting on legislation when they’re possibly ineligible ?

    I don’t see where anyone said that.

    If you have an allegation to make we have the Court of Disputed Returns to adjudicate on it.

  42. alias,

    I imagine Bill would love nothing more than to have the Government try and send him to the HC, especially if they have no evidence.

  44. Alias

    If there was any doubt about Shorten the media would be all over it. However they are not as journalist Adam Gartrell has said he is satisfied with Labor’s accounting of this.

    This is someone paid to find out the truth and has more time than most here to find out.

  46. [Rex Douglas
    …
    This is a constitutional crisis.

    …]

    Pure hyperbole,

    there is no crisis,

    there is just a process to work through.

  47. There hasn’t been much update on Brexit lately; I have no idea how it’s supposed to play out, but would the next big development be the confirmation of whether or not the UK stays in the single market? Are we talking weeks/months/years before that is established?

  49. alias

    Shorten continues to look silly over this citizenship issue. Today, I heard him on radio going hard with the line, wtte: “If Turnbull has any evidence that I am a dual citizen then he should put up or shut up.”
    Wouldn’t the line be a lot more compelling if he said: “Turnbull hasn’t got any evidence that I’m a dual citizen, because there is none. I’m not one. End of story.” Something about Shorten’s whole approach on this issue just sounds fishy to me.
    _________________________________________

    Shorten’s argument is that this is just a rerun of the US birther circus. He has already said he renounced his claim to British citizenship in 2006 and if he has to keep repeating it because his political and other enemies are pretending not to have heard him, he is just feeding their birtherism.

    He has made it plain. He is not going down the path of providing evidence and he has not demanded evidence from anyone else that they are not a dual citizen.

    Hence the “put up or shut up” response. Putting it another way – if his enemies want to call him a liar without any evidence, he is not going to prove he was telling the truth. That’s the way it is.

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