YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  4. John Barron on 24 at the moment.

    I think it’s noticeable that he has reverted to be a more traditional Republican over the last couple of months after being an anyone other that a Democrat for quite a while.

  8. AusElectoralCom: The electoral roll has increased by 54,545 between 8 & 22 August. 577,879 total enrolment transactions processed in this timeframe #auspol

  9. Having Windsor in the fray as a contradictor to Barnyard may be important. Windsor obviously doesn’t want to let Barnyard say any old s… in his affidavit without being cross-examined, if necessary! Go for it Tony.

  12. a r
    But if the class action is successful, don’t the litigants (all shareholders) just get paid out by the CBAs money which is actually the shareholders anyway?

  16. Diog – I suspect those who sue are people who bought shares after the Cth bank should have notified the market about its problems. They claim they bought shares under a false pretence. So it is a discreet body of shareholders.

  20. Wasn’t someone saying they hoped for 50,000+ new enrolments? Looks like things may be on track for ~60,000.

    Two call outs to get enrolled in one electoral cycle. Now who will that help?

  21. Early prediction.

    CBA settle class action for $50 million.

    Funder $20 million
    Maurice Blackburn $20 million
    10,000 shareholders $1,000 each

  22. ItzaDream @ #311 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 2:13 pm

    VPN anyone?

    Tor.

    Diogenes @ #312 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 2:14 pm

    a r
    But if the class action is successful, don’t the litigants (all shareholders) just get paid out by the CBAs money which is actually the shareholders anyway?

    It seems like that would be the case. Though perhaps they’re alleging directorial liability? Or maybe there are some sort of insurance policies that will kick in? Or what if some of them have already sold off their shares, so are no longer shareholders and want compensation for either having to sell their shares at a reduced price or for having had to buy them at an inflated price?

    I assume the lawyers had to convince at least some members of the class that a victory would leave them financially better off. Though I have no idea what their actual argument may have been.

  24. More on the confessional and the protection of paedophiles ~

    With the stroke of his pen, Pope Francis could apply the same strict standards that canon law imposes on those who falsely damage a priest’s reputation to the much more serious matter of child sexual abuse. If he did, it would become well known to child abusers in the Church that they could not receive absolution, unless they handed themselves in to the police. The problem of the seal would be solved: if the abusers wanted absolution, they first had to hand themselves over to the police, and then there was no need for the confessor to break the seal by reporting; if they did not want to hand themselves over, they would not go to confession, and then there was no confessional seal to be broken. And in the latter case, the abuser would be denied the comfort of confession that the Royal Commission found was a contributing factor in the abuse of children within the Church.

    http://johnmenadue.com/kieran-tapsell-sex-abuse-and-the-seal-of-the-confessional/

    And I call Bishop Hart’s defensive response that the confessional provides an avenue for the confessor to convince the confessee to turn himself in as rubbish, for which there is no evidence afaik.

  25. a r @ #310 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:13 pm

    Wasn’t someone saying they hoped for 50,000+ new enrolments? Looks like things may be on track for ~60,000.

    Thanks for the latest update AR.

    It’s very bad news for the L/NP because the updates and enrolments are well over and above what could be expected based on new enrolments/updates at the last election. It’s a demographic bomb which will blowup the LNP’s chances at the next election.

  26. The basic demographics of the new enrollments and also of those checking/amending would be interesting!

    I might ask the AEC if they make this available.

  30. At least the CBA debacle has one silver lining. I’m no longer being harassed to use the deposit ATM instead of depositing money with the teller.

  31. The issue in USA is just how deep the social chasm is.

    Trump won because he had a coalition of support that comprised

    1. Traditional republicans (mostly if not enthusiastically)
    2. Tea party people who believed he would push theirs socially regressive agenda
    3. Southerners who hate Mexicans and blacks
    4. Southerners who maybe do not hate mexicans but are under jobs pressure due to influx of immigrants
    5. Frustrated working class people (mostly whites) who have either lost their jobs or fear losing them and want a return to prosperity
    6. Anti-establishment types who hated the “swamp” and the military industrial complex and though Trump might break the control of the insider elite
    7. American firsters who wanted to boost US trade and stop exporting jobs to china
    8. American isolationists who felt that Trump would withdraw the USA from its costly policeman role and get out of foreign wars
    9. Some men who were just plain misogynist.

    Obviously there is overlap between these groups but not fully.

    As of now Trump has
    1. Lost group 1 because of incompetence
    2. Lost group 8 because of this new Afghanistan nonsense
    3. Lost groups 6 a because he is now even more entrenched with the military industrial complex than even Obama
    4. Has lost the confidence of group 5 and 7
    5. Only had group 2 because of Pence so they would cheerfully swith
    6. Has yet to demonstrate he can do anything about immigration so he is on the point of losing group 4

    He is lest with the racists and misogynists who obviously will desert for any other man.

    Trouble is where will the others go.

  32. Shellbell – maybe they should be forced to appoint an independent adviser to the shareholders, because the conflict of interest is horrific.

  33. Updating my earlier post for an assumed 60k new enrollments by the end of tomorrow.

    You would expect more enrollments at the 2016 election because the previous enrollment drive was a long time before (1029 days). In this case, it’s only 418 days. More people will have moved to the country, or turned 18 in 1029 days than 418, and thus need to enroll.

    The 2016 election campaign saw 128 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive.

    Assuming the final number creeps up to 60k in the last day and a half, then the ME survey has seen 144 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive. Very impressive.

  34. CTar1 @ #326 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:28 pm

    The basic demographics of the new enrollments and also of those checking/amending would be interesting!

    I might ask the AEC if they make this available.

    Its been done before, it’s overwhelmingly young people.

    From the 2016 election:
    There were 15.7m electors.
    An estimated 816k Australian’s aren’t enrolled to vote (95% participation), of that 254k are 18 – 25 (86.7% participation). About 70% of 18 year olds are enrolled to vote.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/2016/key-facts.htm

  35. Voice Endeavour @ #333 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    Updating my earlier post for an assumed 60k new enrollments by the end of tomorrow.

    You would expect more enrollments at the 2016 election because the previous enrollment drive was a long time before (1029 days). In this case, it’s only 418 days. More people will have moved to the country, or turned 18 in 1029 days than 418, and thus need to enroll.

    The 2016 election campaign saw 128 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive.

    Assuming the final number creeps up to 60k in the last day and a half, then the ME survey has seen 144 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive. Very impressive.

    Thanks for that update VE.

    Do you have any idea if there is a lag of postal enrolments/updates? Or does the postal acceptance rule not apply and the enrolment/update need to be received before midnight Friday? Is there any prediction on a Friday evening rush?

  37. Voice Endeavour @ #333 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    The 2016 election campaign saw 128 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive.

    Assuming the final number creeps up to 60k in the last day and a half, then the ME survey has seen 144 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive. Very impressive.

    Labor will have to send the LNP a thank you note for running our Enrolment and GoTV effort.

  38. The protection for the class is meant to come from the lawyers, who are obviously conflicted, but in reality it comes from the court (Federal Court normally).

    Even then I think the Federal Court is a bit soft on these processes.

    What happens is that the combatants slog it out at great expense for a few years. The class loses interest. The class is told the outcome is uncertain and could be years away etc. The funder wants to get its share. The Defendant feels duty bound to its shareholders to settle on best possible terms.
    A deal is struck and the Court, told about uncertainty, approves it.

  39. [grimace
    Voice Endeavour @ #333 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    The 2016 election campaign saw 128 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive.

    Assuming the final number creeps up to 60k in the last day and a half, then the ME survey has seen 144 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive. Very impressive.

    Labor will have to send the LNP a thank you note for running our Enrolment and GoTV effort.]

    Also, IIRC, GetUp normally have a large enrolment drive so that money saved can be pumped into Dutton’s Seat or other worthy causes.

  40. @ grimace – agreed. I suspect that conventional wisdom has misinterpreted young people’s disdain for politicians as disdain for policy, and underestimated the ability of millennials to work out snail mail.

  43. @ Barney – Guardian is still traumatised by their fuckup with Brexit.

    “Bremain will win, don’t bother turning up”

    *Brexit wins*

    They understand voluntary voting better than most Australian papers.

  44. gt

    One thing for sure on the Hiv rate expenditure of $32 million that you were lamenting about that the PBS rejected last week would not be wasted, unless the particular drug has a poor success rate generally.

    This also, I guess, somewhat depends on enough being known about when it’s useful to use and when not.

    My recent experience (and I’ve had bugger all experience over the years) with prescription medicine is that if you have a number of them and the ‘menu’ is changing taking you Doctor through the current list is a worthwhile thing. From the simplicity aspect, cost aspect and the ‘Sh#t, I’m running out of ‘X’ aspect.

  47. ct

    Prep was mentioned specifically in the NSW Health release.

    Thats why the $120 million spent on the postal survey is such a criminal waste of money.

  48. I’m not sure we should get too excited about the surge in enrollments. What evidence is there that that isn’t simply bringing forward enrollments that would have occurred at the next election?

  50. shellbell – I know someone who was involved in one.

    Told me the hassle of ongoing requests from the law firm and having to deal with the event again in detail made the final outcome not worthwhile.

    They’d generally put the thing to rest so going through the details after a lot of years not good and regretted becoming involved again.

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