YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

  1. Obama was an uppity Kenyan.

    Plus, according to Pyne, Shorten is protecting a swag of Labor dual citizen MPS.

    Duly reported straight by The Oz. What a surprise.

    Put up Chriss put up!

    If you have evidence that Labor MPs are unconstitutional, put it up.

  2. “Lawyers Maurice Blackburn and litigation funder IMF Bentham have launched a class action on behalf of Commonwealth Bank shareholders over a share price drop caused by allegations related to money laundering.”
    Isn’t this argument a bit circular? The class action itself will also drop the share price if it is successful.

  3. As the USS John McCain, entered the strait, the 338-man crew on the bridge faced multiple system failures. First the main steering mechanism failed to respond. Then, the back up system failed. The ship’s rudder was completely unusable.

    Still, the experienced crew on board should have been able to guide the ship by altering the speed of the ship’s propellers. Perhaps they were trying that when the unthinkable happened. The 600-ft Liberian flagged oil tanker Alnic MC smashed into the warship’s rear left. The “rear-end collision” is an indicator the US vessel was not at fault. Satellite tracking also shows the Alnic MC unexpectedly veered sharply left at around that time.

    https://narativ.org/2017/08/23/operation-battleship/

  4. Bw

    Some oddities showing that the MSM has been more full of it than usual:

    1. The Strait of Malacca is not ‘east’ of Singapore, as reported.
    2. The Strait of Malacca is not 1.9 miles wide, as reported.
    3. The Strait of Malacca is not the Singapore Strait, as reported.

    What’s odd about that? … US media reporting is crap.

    Try watching CNN.

  5. Margo Kingston‏Verified account @margokingston1 · 1m1 minute ago

    Trump, deluded: “I don’t believe that any president has accomplished more on the last 7 months than this president.”

  6. Diogenes @ #258 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 1:12 pm

    “Lawyers Maurice Blackburn and litigation funder IMF Bentham have launched a class action on behalf of Commonwealth Bank shareholders over a share price drop caused by allegations related to money laundering.”
    Isn’t this argument a bit circular? The class action itself will also drop the share price if it is successful.

    I think the distinction is that the class-action is something initiated by an external actor (or actors) that the bank has no control over. The money laundering, and the drop in share prices when it was discovered, not so much (or at all). It’s not unreasonable to assert that the bank directors should have known that course of action would damage the value of their business.

  7. SethAbramson: In endorsing Hannity—calling him a good, honest guy—Trump endorses Hannity’s claim “99%” of the Charlottesville protestors were good people.

    Where else have I heard this?

    Hmmmmm :thinking emoji

  8. DTT

    Is it the case that if Barnaby is found not to have been eligible then Windsor will be the member? – forget a by-election?

    I think we can strike that off the list.

    By-election for HoR seats is quite logical.

  9. Trump Threatens To Close Down The Government Unless Democrats Pay For His Border Wall

    In Phoenix, Donald Trump threatened to shut down the US government if Democrats and Congress won’t pay for his border wall that Mexico was supposed to pay for.

    Trump said, “Now, the obstructionist Democrats would like us not to do it, but believe me if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall.”

    Trump promised during the campaign that Mexico would pay for the wall. The President was later caught begging Mexico’s president to stop saying that Mexico won’t pay for the wall.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/trump-threatens-close-government-democrats-pay-border-wall.html

  10. Windsor does sound a bit English, though.

    _____________________________

    Opposition research has revealed that his real name is Tony Saxe-Coburg-Gotha 😀

  11. phoenixRED @ #275 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 1:22 pm

    Trump said, “Now, the obstructionist Democrats would like us not to do it, but believe me if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall.”

    WTF is he talking about? Did he forget that his party has a majority in both houses, where the Democrats can’t block anything without Republican help?

    Or is he using “Democrat” as a slur against any Republican who refuses to back his wall?

    BK @ #279 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 1:25 pm

    Comments will be repeated if you hit the new comment button whilst the page is self polling for more comments.

    That just sounds like bad design.

  12. I’m pretty sure precedent implies there will be a bi election in New England and it looks like Windsor is in for another go at the job.

  13. Hesychia Bryennissa‏ @hesychia · 1h1 hour ago

    Replying to @mattmfm

    My husband is laughing his ass off right now. He’s in that picture and that ain’t Phoenix!

  14. freedom2marry: Wow. Police deploying flash-bang grenades, tear gas to disperse protesters. Journalists also gassed. No violence yet though. #PhoenixRally

  15. “New Zealand has a track record of working with those territories to make them productive. Australia wants to turn Norfolk Island into a welfare state.”

    The place is in fact geographically closer to, New Zealand than Australia, and is part of the submarine ridge that joins New Zealand with New Caledonia.

    Mr Nobbs said the Australian government’s management of the island has been distressing for residents.

    “The main change has been a complete disempowerment,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/norfolk-islanders-pining-for-a-new-deal-want-pacific-paradise-to-be-part-of-nz-20170822-gy1iqf.html?platform=hootsuite

  16. poroti @ #203 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:19 am

    Re the US navy collisions. A lot of talk of the GPS being to blame but how on earth does that affect the radars ? Fat slow tankers are hardly going to be missed on radar. Perhaps the yanks turn on the autopilot and all go to sleep !

    You do things in the name of efficiency, like have a single man watch on the bridge.

  17. zoomster @ #213 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:33 am

    BC

    Labor Federal preselections vary by state, with Victoria looking to conduct theirs early next year – remember, there is a redistribution due in Victoria which has the potential to change seat boundaries (and thus margins) significantly.

    WA preselection process starts shortly. Delegates to the presection committee are going to be chosen at our AGM in a few weeks.

  18. lizzie,

    “The main change has been a complete disempowerment,” he said.

    I’ve heard that the main change is that they can claim Newstart. It will do wonders for the local economy.

    I know someone who was involved in setting up a C’wlth ‘services centre on the island and the car park behind the centre is a popular place to park. The visable front car park almost always empty.

    If NZ wants it I’m in favor of a quick change over.

  19. I was waiting for someone to comment on this.

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account
    @vanOnselenP

    Isn’t the PM doing a joint presser with a member of the Pratt family he condemned Shorten for sucking up to when he was a union figure?

  20. WynRichards: Alternative wording for SSM postal thing.

    “Do you believe conservative Christians should continue dictating on social issues?”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *