YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

  1. CTar1 @ #195 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:09 pm

    Itza

    The ABC broadcaster and Indigenous editor, Stan Grant, this week called for the statue to stay but the inscription to be changed.

    I think the idea of leaving both statue and original inscription in place with an additional prominent inscription added somewhat acceptable.

    I agree, not to hide or obliterate the past or its mistakes but demonstrate the evolution and maturation of thought.

  2. Re the US navy collisions. A lot of talk of the GPS being to blame but how on earth does that affect the radars ? Fat slow tankers are hardly going to be missed on radar. Perhaps the yanks turn on the autopilot and all go to sleep !

  3. ITZA – Many thanks. I’ll have to get there some time, though the wall of skulls looks a bit freaky. By the way, I thought Simone was pretty good conducting Bruckner 5, but it was too slow, particularly in a dry acoustic like the Opera House. But what would I know!

  4. Boerwar

    My eclipse was twice as big as Obam’s eclipse. Plus my eclipse crowds were the biggest. Believe me. The biggest. Yuuuuge.

    ***************************************************

    …….. and I didn’t wimp out – I stared at it BIGGGGLLLLYYYYY ……

  5. antonbruckner11 @ #204 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 12:21 pm

    ITZA – Many thanks. I’ll have to get there some time, though the wall of skulls looks a bit freaky. By the way, I thought Simone was pretty good conducting Bruckner 5, but it was too slow, particularly in a dry acoustic like the Opera House. But what would I know!

    Sure you know. The acoustic varies a lot with seating, is warmer with more reverb since the latest refurb and there’s more coming with the hall to be closed for major renos incl the plastic toilet seat acoustic reflectors being replaced with larger sheet like reflectors (a bit like Munich). I’ve gotten used to the sound, feeling it distinctly local, a bit brassy in a Sydney way. Their Mahler sounds fantastic; there’s a Mahler 1 coming up.

    Pace, off topic.

  6. marrowing: “freedom to discriminate” is actually state violence against LGBTI people salon.com/2014/02/18/lib… pic.twitter.com/9wGiUFYbEw

    Kansas’ latest effort to promote discrimination against gays has managed to reopen discussions about the nature of the state’s role in so-called private discrimination. Although conservatives and libertarians like to pretend economic discrimination does not involve state action, the reality is that the state is almost always involved as the background enforcer of such discrimination

  7. I was interested in the makeup of the next parliament and which electorates would be in contest at the next election. These are my results. Keep in mind, upsets are to be expected. Look at the Divisions of Lindsay and Macquarie from last year, where solid campaigning and strong anti-incumbent sentiment produced a larger swing than was expected.

    Potential ALP gains if Labor stays ahead in the polls by the time we have an election

    

1 percent swing to Labor (3 seat gain) (Hung parliament – LAB-72 LNP-73)



    Forde
    
Capricornia
    
Gilmore

    

2 percent swing to Labor (11 seat gain) (Labor form government – LAB-80 LNP-65)

    

Forde
    
Capricornia
    
Gilmore

    La Trobe

    Banks

    Robertson

    Flynn
    
Dunkley

    Chisholm

    Petrie

    Dickson



    3 Percent Swing to Labor (13 seat gain) (Labor form government – LAB-82 LNP-63)



    Forde

    Capricornia

    Gilmore
    
La Trobe

    Banks

    Robertson

    Flynn

    Dunkley

    Chisholm
    
Petrie
    
Dickson

    Hasluck
    
Page



    3.5 Percent swing to Labor (16 seat gain) (Labor form government – LAB-85 LNP-60)



    Forde

    Capricornia

    Gilmore
    
La Trobe

    Banks
    
Robertson
    
Flynn
    
Dunkley

    Chisholm
    
Petrie
    
Dickson

    Hasluck
    
Page

    Boothby
    
Leichhardt

    Corangamite



    4 Percent Swing to Labor (20 seat gain) (Labor form government – LAB-89 LNP-56)



    Forde
    
Capricornia
    
Gilmore
    
La Trobe
    
Banks

    Robertson

    Flynn

    Dunkley

    Chisholm

    Petrie
    
Dickson
    
Hasluck

    Page

    Boothby

    Leichhardt
    
Corangamite
    
Pearce

    Swan

    Dawson

    Bonner

    

Individual electorates:



    Forde (QLD)
    
Incumbent: Bert Van Manen

    

Capricornia (QLD)

    Incumbent: Michelle Landry



    Gilmore (NSW)
    
Incumbent: Ann Sudmalis



    La Trobe (Vic)
    
Incumbent: Jason Wood

    

Banks (NSW)

    Incumbent: David Coleman

    

Robertson (NSW)
    
Incumbent: Lucy Wicks

    

Flynn (QLD)
    
Incumbent: Ken O’Dowd



    Dunkley (Vic)

    Incumbent: Chris Crewfer



    Chisholm (Vic)
    
Incumbent: Julia Banks

    

Petrie (QLD)

    Incumbent: Luke Howarth

    

Dickson (QLD)
    
Incumbent: Peter Dutton

    

Hasluck (WA)

    Incumbent: Ken Wyatt



    Page (NSW)
    
Incumbent: Kevin Hogan

    

Boothby (SA)
    
Incumbent: Nicole Flint

    

Leichardt (QLD)
    
Incumbent: Warren Entsch



    Corangamite (Vic)
    
Incumbent: Sarah Henderson

    

Pearce (WA)
    
Incumbent: Christian Porter

    

Swan (WA)
    
Incumbent: Steve Irons

    

Dawson (QLD)
    
Incumbent: George Christensen



    Bonner (QLD)

    Incumbent: Ross Vasta



    One interesting thing when you look at the data this way is that anything more than a 1 percent swing to Labor will likely cost Peter Dutton his seat.



    Do we know who the likely ALP preselections are yet?


  8. The Navy has just replaced the admiral.!!!!!

    In the USS Fitzgerald case they politely reported the crew on watch had “lost situational awareness.” In other words they were dancing, bonking, drunk, sleeping , watching Game of Thrones or playing a computer game, rather than looking out the window to notice a dirty great container ship coming at them.

    This recent case is cause unknown, but given the US Navy sacked the admiral, I am assuming they blame the crew and not the evil Russians or Chinese.

  9. BC

    Labor Federal preselections vary by state, with Victoria looking to conduct theirs early next year – remember, there is a redistribution due in Victoria which has the potential to change seat boundaries (and thus margins) significantly.

  10. Adrian

    Yes. The very reason that all laws should change to make things equal. No exemptions. If its legal for heterosexuals then is legal for gays. That simple.

    Thats so nurses doctors and teachers do not get fired for being gay. Rather any institution that wants to run that service has to accept that or not run the service.

    This includes the age of consent laws. Having them different in states like NSW is only reinforcing the F’s are peadohiles narrative the homophobes run.

  11. Zoomster

    I have been told that labor plans to get a lot of the pre-selections out of the way this year.

    Frankly given the state of the parliament it would be wise for Labor to get the preselction process rolling as soon as possible.

  12. ab

    But what would I know!

    I think people who revel in intellectual twaddle about music, wine and the like are full of it short of them being musicians or vinters.

    If you enjoy is the only real criteria and price is no reliable indicator.

  13. Boerwar

    The USS McCain was remarkably rust-stained… something I had never before seen in USN vessels.

    ************************************************************

    “When you are going through the Strait of Malacca, you can’t tell me that a Navy destroyer doesn’t have a full navigation team going with full lookouts on every wing and extra people on radar,” said Jeff Stutzman,, cyber intelligence service.
    “There’s something more than just human error going on because there would have been a lot of humans to be checks and balances,” said Stutzman, a former information warfare specialist in the Navy.
    Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/national-security/article168470432.html#storylink=cpy

  14. Bw – Deployments to the US Seventh Fleet are said to be the longest ones and with the most active patrolling. So a bit scruffy is probably the norm.

    Most ships do major refits prior to this deployment.

  15. CTar1

    The HC may want to be able to give a quick decision which they can do without publishing a judgment til later.

    It is of course open to the HC to junk Sykes but they probably need a party to say it is wrong. I am not sure if the current bench contain many admirers of the Mason court which was a little flexible in its approach to reasoning.

  16. BW
    Where do you see the rust stains?

    Serious not a trick question.

    Possibly we only ever see PR photos of ships just after they have had their routine spruce up, so rust may not be that unusual.

    Given there have been 4 incidents it does rather suggest (note suggest not certainty) sloppy management, and poor morale, which may also show in poor ship maintenance and presentation. Other possibilities such as moneys intended for maintenance being mis-directed are also possible, along with the culture of the lowest bidder leading to poor standards.

    Who knows but what you say may be significant.

  17. Personally im dissapointed there wasnt a surge of enrollments to the AEC. I was hoping for a much larger amount (50,000 +). I know there is a couple of days left but given the large amounts of 18-25yr old not enrolled I was hoping this would get more onto the rolls.

  18. shellbell

    Makes sense. Tks.

    It’s a big one and if ‘junking a precedent’ is what it takes to put some clear words around I hope they choose to do that.

  19. Some oddities showing that the MSM has been more full of it than usual:

    1. The Strait of Malacca is not ‘east’ of Singapore, as reported.
    2. The Strait of Malacca is not 1.9 miles wide, as reported.
    3. The Strait of Malacca is not the Singapore Strait, as reported.

  20. ar

    I assume “loss of situational awareness” is code for sleeping.

    Surely not ALSO in the straits of Malacca.

    There be pirates!!!!

    Can you imagine the headlines – US Destroyer captured by Blackbeard and a parrot.

  21. I wonder if relying on multiple systems risks not responding to one saying ‘alert / alert’ when other(s), esp other given greater weighting, are saying ‘ok /ok’.

    I’ve seen a major catastrophe where the safety of an intervention was (meant to be) safeguarded by two persons checking but failed as each individual was uncertain but rested assured that the other knew what they were doing. When neither did.

    I’m speculating here on GPS vs radar vs visual and anything else. Sharing of responsibility and decision making can increase risk, not decrease it.

  22. I have been watching Trump’s rally in Arizona. It is an ugly thing.
    I see an egomaniac pumping up a crowd of the ignorant with more and more hatred.

  23. BK

    Fairly Universal response

    TiqueTP21: I missed out on the Jim Jones cult following of the 70’s but I’m bearing witness to a new kind of evil cult following in Trump #PhoenixRally

  24. shellbell

    Stan Grant doesn’t sound very “aboriginal”, either.

    As for Windsor:

    Last name: Windsor
    This name, with variant spellings Windsor, Winsor, Winser, Winzor, Winzer and Winzar, is of Anglo-Saxon origin, and is locational from Winsor in Devonshire, near the mouth of the Yealm, or from Winsor in Hampshire, on Southampton water. The former was first recorded as “Winlesore” in the 1202 Fine Court Rolls of Devonshire, and the latter was recorded as “Windlesor” in the 1236 Assize Court Rolls of Hampshire.

  25. Trump Blames Obama, Not His Support Of Nazis, For Worsening US Race Relations

    Trump said, “They asked me what about race relations in the United States? I have to say; they were pretty bad under Barack Obama.”

    In Donald Trump’s mind, the man responsible for worsening race relations in the United States is Barack Obama, an African-American man who had the nerve to run for president and win twice.

    The dog whistles are being blown loud and hard in Phoenix, and Trump denied his racism while practicing an even more sinister version of racial hate.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/trump-blames-obama-support-nazis-worsening-race-relations.html

  26. “Personally im dissapointed there wasnt a surge of enrollments to the AEC. I was hoping for a much larger amount (50,000 +). ”
    It’s the boycott. 😉

  27. Now that Tony Windsor is joining the Barnyard matter, expect to see Big Gina or proxy as well.

    After all, she allegedly paid for a platoon of backpackers to come up to New England to hand out for her man next to wherever Windsor’s people were standing. So she can claim to be ‘an affected party’, namely that her allegedly bought cabinet seat is under threat.

  28. ‘Sh*tshow of the highest order’: Internet loses it after Trump’s ‘insane, absurd, off-the-rails’ speech

    Donald Trump on Tuesday night spoke at a campaign-style rally in Pheonix, Arizona. After spending 45 minutes maligning the media and re-litigating his reaction to the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia (while intentionally leaving out his “both sides” remark), Trump hinted he will pardon Sheriff Joe Arpaio and complained—while live on TV—that the mainstream media was too scared to cover him.

    It was a free-wheeling, decidedly “off-the-rails” speech that no-doubt satisfied Trump’s cracking base.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/shtshow-of-the-highest-order-internet-loses-it-after-trumps-insane-absurd-off-the-rails-speech/

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