YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

  1. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    What is going on with navy ships colluding with merchant ships lately!

    ************************************************

    Hi Victoria – it seems to be like this :

    Puesto Loco™‏ @PuestoLoco

    ONCE is an accident TWICE is neglect THRICE is an enemy at work

    Some think its some form of GPS spoofing/false reporting – I posted a couple of articles this morning but here is another that explains it in some detail

    GPS spoofing: How Iran tricked US patrol boats into capture

    https://sofrep.com/46818/gps-spoofing-how-iran-tricked-us-patrol-boats-into-capture/

  2. McConnell Allies Warn Trump He’ll Be Impeached If He Keeps Attacking Republican Senators
    Mitch McConnell’s allies sent a stern warning to Trump that if he knocks off Republican Senators and Democrats get control of the Senate, he’ll be on the fast track to impeachment. It is possible that there are 15-16 GOP Senators who would vote to convict Trump.
    The threat to Trump was clear. If he keeps messing with Republican incumbent Senators, he’ll be risking getting thrown out of office. This the biggest omen yet that Senate Republicans are coming closer to turning on Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/mcconnell-allies-warn-trump-impeached-attacking-republican-senators.html

  3. Boerwar @ #21 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 5:42 am

    Shorten mentioned that something like 400,000 voters have updated their details and/ or enrolled in response to the ME survey.

    Presumably this will have a material impact in the next Federal election.

    We had a discussion about this the other day, and William provided the enrolment and details update information from the last election.

    All things being equal, new enrolments and updates should be around a third of the numbers for the last election. Extrapolating on that using information released by the AEC for the first six days, new enrolments were well behind were they could otherwise expected to be at this point in the electoral cycle and updates were a bit ahead.

    The important caveat here is there may well be a surge towards the end of the two week period for new enrolments/updates and there may be a lag due to processing and receipt of those submitted by post. We won’t be able to make a proper assessment until we see the final numbers.

    Looking at the numbers for 6 days in, with another 8 days to go, my expectation is that the exercise will be a demographic catastrophe for the L/NP.

  4. OK, accepting GPS spoofing is going on, ships still have people onboard and all are equipped with the good ol’ Mk 1 eyeball. Two in fact, so redundant systems!
    And in addion to that, they have radar.
    So ‘blame the GPS’ just strikes me as bs.

  5. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Hmmm. It is tres weird

    *******************************************************

    I would have thought they have standing watches and lookouts on the bridge/other parts of the ship as well as surface radar ( not sure if that can be jammed ) so how come they don’t seem to see approaching ships ?????? ……

    Here’s How Navy Crews Watch For (And Respond To) Collisions At Sea

    http://taskandpurpose.com/heres-navy-crews-watch-respond-collisions-sea/

  6. guytaur @ #155 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 11:13 am

    itzadream

    The offensiveness of Turnbull was so apparent I called the interview a train wreck and not one poster here disputed it.

    I missed that guytaur. These patronising platitudes are piss weak and undignified, but the cap fits.

    Thanks too for the posts on RACGPs, and St Vincent’s Health yesterday re drug testing. More rotten policy by this rotten govt.

  7. phRD

    “Ships fooled in GPS spoofing attack suggest Russian cyberweapon

    Russia tests new Electronic Warfare system: GPS on at least 20 US ships placed them inland at a Russian airport.”

    It’s was speculated a few years ago that a US drone was bought down in Iran using false GPS signals.

  8. I’ve just checked the AEC Twitter feed. Between 8 & 20 August:
    – 434,026 updates, and;
    – 36,769 new enrolments.

    A quick search didn’t find the 2016 stats and I’m at work and don’t have time to go looking for the 2016 stats.

    With 4 days of enrolments to go, and a lag with postal forms, the L/NP are well into catastrophe territory from the ME farce.

  9. Trumbles: “If this gets one person off drugs and into a job, it is a good thing. The best form of welfare is a job.

    So a young person is so depressed from not being able to find employment that he/she smokes a little weed to relax.

    This cruel government would drive anyone to alternative substances.

  10. Trumbles: “If this gets one person off drugs and into a job, it is a good thing. The best form of welfare is a job.

    If this makes one person commit suicide, or a robbery, it is a bad thing. The best form of welfare is a living income. Definitely not a job at slave wage rates.

  11. [Maurice Blackburn presser class action lawsuit against CBA presser on 24 now]

    The ABC should not be doing advertising for lawyers.

    Class action lawyers should be required to disclose past performance of amount of claim recovered v legal fees

  12. Vogon Poet

    For about a grand you can get an AIS unit that plots all sea traffic in your area, even warns you of potential collisions.

    ********************************************

    We’ll since the US Navy ships have been involved in four accidents in Asian waters this year, including three collisions and one ship that ran aground, maybe if Donald stayed home in the WH one weekend and saved $$$$ on travel/golf cart fees/ Secret Service costs he could dole out some cash for each Navy ship to be fitted with a up to date unjammable AIS unit ?????

  13. Good advice for overseas voting applicants from the AEC:

    AEC‏Verified account @AusElectoralCom 1h1 hour ago
    Replying to @KJBar
    Hi Karen, FYI – the deadline to enrol or update is actually at midnight tomorrow not 6pm.

    Robbo‏ @BiteTheDust 23m23 minutes ago

    how do I submit an overseas vote request when I need to submit a signed pdf?

    AEC‏Verified account @AusElectoralCom 1m1 minute ago

    You can print, sign, scan and upload here: http://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/send-form.htm

  14. shellbell @ #177 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 11:39 am

    [Maurice Blackburn presser class action lawsuit against CBA presser on 24 now]

    The ABC should not be doing advertising for lawyers.

    Class action lawyers should be required to disclose past performance of amount of claim recovered v legal fees

    Why not?

    They do advertising for the government all the time.

    Governments should be required to disclose past performance in relation to economic and social indicators v promises made. 😉

  15. That comment of Turnbull
    ‘. I don’t need a fucking hug. I need a prime minister with some spine and a moral compass.’.

    Was similar to his answer when asked by Jon Faine on how his kids would be able to afford their own home. Turnbull replied Wtte
    ‘Jon you look pretty wealthy, you should help them out’s.

  16. I wonder what happens if Malcolm Roberts just swears an affidavit saying I am an Australian citizen, I renounced my pommie citizenship on x date, I have no documents and then some weird shit a.k.a his political views.

    Will the commonwealth have enough evidence to prove the contrary?

  17. @ shellbell – the ‘commonwealth’ certainly has that info.

    It’s just a question of whether the Liberals can risk the British being asked for the information, considering they have recently announced that talking to foreign governments about citizenship of MPs is treason.

  18. Had to happen ~

    The City of Sydney council is considering whether to refer a statue inscription claiming Captain James Cook discovered Australia to its Indigenous board.

    The Cook statue in Hyde Park has been criticised for ignoring tens of thousands of years of Indigenous history in Australia. Its inscription reads: “Discovered this territory 1770.”

    However councillors have warned against reducing discussion of Aboriginal dispossession to a narrowly focused “culture war”.

    The ABC broadcaster and Indigenous editor, Stan Grant, this week called for the statue to stay but the inscription to be changed. He said it was a “fiction” that spoke to the emptiness and invisibility of Indigenous Australians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/23/sydney-under-pressure-over-captain-cook-statue-claim-he-discovered-australia

  19. shellbell – the HC judges associates burning midnight oil at the moment you’d think.

    The judges must be thinking hard.

    To put it mildly it’s a crisis and they must recognise it as such.

  20. Now – THIS is interesting in light of the gps spoofing

    Coincidence? Rothschild Inherits Freescale Semiconductor Patent – result of engineers deaths on flight MH-370

    A US technology company which had 20 senior staff on board Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 had just launched a new electronic warfare gadget for military radar systems in the days before the Boeing 777 went missing.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/coincidence-rothschild-inherits-freescale-patent-bryan

  21. Itza

    The ABC broadcaster and Indigenous editor, Stan Grant, this week called for the statue to stay but the inscription to be changed.

    I think the idea of leaving both statue and original inscription in place with an additional prominent inscription added somewhat acceptable.

  22. sturdyAlex: So, I just travelled two hours to adopt a cat that desperately needed rehoming and was turned down for being gay. WTF IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE. pic.twitter.com/XDwYELdkn7


  23. CTari

    Pakistan is a rouge stat with Nukes and also one with Chinese naval associations.

    Make no mistake this move is about CHINA. Pakistan is just another inconvenient piece of “collateral” damage.

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