Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.
Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.
Rex Douglas @ #336 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:05 pm
Since logic and you appear to be complete strangers, how would you know?
Quite right Bemused. I would also argue Xenophon probably took all reasonable steps.
Thanks for the “scumbag” clarification William Bowe. I’ll keep it in my backpocket to use sparingly, though I can think of a former LNP leader for whom it does seem tailor made..
alias @ #352 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:15 pm
And I think you might be right there.
Alias, No I’m not advocating that at all, all I’m saying is if you think you have all the answers then step up, compared to the rabble they were 4 or so years ago they have come back in leaps and bounds and that can be put down to Bill Shorten and the REST of the leadership team. Would it be better with Albo or Plibersek or any number of others? possibly but they aren’t. You work with the tools you’ve got and at the moment things are working quite well. As for the birther stuff…FFS!
Have we seen Xenophon’s paperwork? Or is it just that his word is better than Shorten’s?
Birthes made false accusations, reversed the onus of proof and then accaused Obama of being a liar and illegitimate.
This completely subverted policy debates.
Inter alia, it helps explain how the US ended up with Trump.
Now the Right and their tame concern trolls like RD are trying the same thing on Shorten.
The obvious reply is that if the Right have something going on Shorten the should put up.
Or shut up.
Bottom line: this is a classic unicorn. Seven Clueless, arrogant and incompetent and illegitimate right wingers are up before the beak.
Not Shorten.
Hey Bemused, you were one who said Abbott should “just produce the documents”, simple. What’s the difference?
Zoomster .. I’m not certain if we’ve seen Xenophon’s Greek/Cypriot paperwork. But surely there is a powerful inference to be drawn that because he acknowledged his problem re Britain – that has resulted in his referral to the High Court – that he has been upfront about his position. The HC will inevitably consider his overall position.
Sorry I think it’s more correct to say Xenophon will be formally referred to the HC once Parliament resumes.
X outed himself and has no choicr: throw himself on the mercy of the High Court.
IMO, if you can’track the citizenship implications of two parents and four grandparents, you probably can’take track a dozen amendments to a Bill which is dozens of pages long and you are unfit for parliament.
Ph_Red
Re earlier post on GPS spoofing.
I find this unlikely that US military GPS (especially naval and aircraft) can be spoofed. These will have the Antispoofing modules that track the encrypted Y code so they can be sure what GPS satellite is real and what is not.
Also, in times of war it is highly likely that the US will turn on its Selective Availability throughout their GPS network. This means that only US government GPS receivers will get accurate results and the rest of us will get +/- 200m (as it used to be) unless you have a differential GPS setup.
I’m not going to bother with the tu quoque nonsense of “You lefties demanded Abbott prove himself, so Shorten has to as well.” Mainly because I never did anything like that. I loathe the birtherist bullshit on both sides (I have been vocal in opposition every time somebody has dug up the Abbott case) and frankly think the s44(i) hysteria of the last month has been a bit much.
SK
I believe that the US reduced the spatial accuracy of GPS during the first Iraq War. Perhaps. I can recall thinking at the time that it meant that aspiring g military powers would all have to have their own GPS systems and their own means to degrade the GPS systems of their potential enemies.
Right. So Xenophon says he has a problem, outlines steps he has taken and you believe him. Shorten says he hasn’t and you don’t.
More precisely Zoomster I think X said someone (Labor has been mentioned) had the dirt on him, thus forcing him to out himself.
SG submissions
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3936330-Solicitor-general-s-submission-to-High-Court-on.html
The Right can’take beat Labor on policy. So it must try to destroy the Left’s leaders.
“I certainly don’t think that Shorten is the masterful strategist”
Maybe not, but given the opportunities as and when they arise, he and the ALP strategy people are playing the Lib/Nats like a lute.
So 50 Acres polled the heffalumps this week
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSv4Bh-ZBvL-8VCgrrTGldQU3Jx2wXV7aVvsq-pQTis4Re-pUqOqAj_8k6ixA
Fingers crossed this works
Any leader who has his political opponents on 18/30 and 54/46 is a good enough strategist for me.
Now, speaking of masterful political strategists… how are Abottom and Turnbull travelling?
X was incompetent the enough to cock up his citizenship issues.
That he bags someone for checking his legitimacy for him adds arrogance to his demonstrated incompetence.
‘Abottom’ is the outcome of auto correct.
Enjoy.
peter love @ #358 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:22 pm
Abbott was actually born in the UK and was known to have therefore been a British Citizen.
It was a fact that he did have to renounce that citizenship that he had definitely held.
Shorten was born in Australia and had been through a very thorough vetting by the ALP and convinced party officials he had renounced the citizenship he held via his father.
If anyone has a shred of evidence to the contrary, then let them produce it so Bill can respond.
Rex Douglas @ #290 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 2:41 pm
They can get as determined as they want to. It just leaves them further to fall when they fall flat on their faces.
Do you not think that Bill would have war-gamed this exact scenario as the MultiNationals, X and The Greens were flailing about wildly over recent weeks?
Blind Freddy could have seen that Tony Jones would go to the Papers issue. It’s an easy gotcha, and that’s all he had to run with. No actual evidence provided to him from a journalist (and journalists would have been digging recently for all they were worth, for the ‘balance’), but no, all he had was a petulant demand of Bill. And Bill could just bat it away BECAUSE he knew there was nothing to be had.
Are you sure you’re not one of those pathetic Liberals, Rex, who are all about the tactics and winning little skirmishes, but losing the war? : )
I just hope the HC hears this crap soon and an audit happens of all MPs to clear this farce up soon so they can actually go back to wrecking the country like they’re meant to do.
A third of India Pakistan and Bangladesh will too hot sustain human life by 2100
https://twitter.com/wef/status/899831258565545984
Dio
I understand that we are looking at months rather than weeks… or years
Diogenes @ #376 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:48 pm
What if the HC decision actually makes things worse?
Billie
Over generalization, IMO.
Well the High Court may not need to do a complete Audit of the Parliament but I suspect that it MAY be necessary in the Senate at least in Qld and probably SA and WA. With 3/12 Qld senators likely to be declared ineligible, and who knows how many of the candidates down the tickets, I imagine the High Court (acting as the court of disputed returns may HAVE to check every candidate, before they can determine who will replace Waters, Roberts and Canavan
Now we know why Turnbull immediately offered pairs for the peccant Grrens.
Could the Government legislate as follows: Upon the election of any MP, the AEC is required to satisfy itself the newly-elected MP meets the S44 (i) criteria. If the MP gets knocked out at that point, he or she suffers a substantial financial penalty (to serve as an incentive to ensure the MP checks properly upon nomination). This would surely provide for at least some stability for so long as s44 (i) remains in its present form.
On a point of process, does the HC have to wait for a referral in relation to disputed returns?
The housing affordability that LNP failed to repair:
https://theconversation.com/the-facts-on-australian-housing-affordability-42881
alias,
Or the parties themselves could be organised enough to do it. It can’t be that hard!
”
What if the HC decision actually makes things worse?”
I’m not sure how much worse it can get. The political system needs to try and restore the public’s confidence. It’s a laughing stock now and it’s losing its legitimacy.
An election might be needed depending on what the HC says.
And citing any party’s strict vetting policy is hardly proof of anything other than the party took the MPs word on the matter. The parties don’t require copies of documentation of renunciation.
Diogenes @ #390 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:59 pm
Yeah, democracy is a terrible way to run a political system. Just, not as bad as all the the other types of Government models.
Remember, no babies died here. We’re just not sure where they were born and with whom they might hold secret allegiances.
Yes you’d think so C@tmomma, but under my proposal, the financial penalty would be so large that it would make certain the parties would attend to do this – and in so doing would provide for greater stability than we’re seeing just now.
Alias
I do not think that they would need to actually legislate – all they would need to do is revamp the nomination form to include stuff like:
1. Where were you born if not born in Australia indicate country and evidence that you have renounced any citizenship you may have acquired by right of birth
2. Are you away of ever holding any previous citizenship. If so indicate country and evidence that you have renounced any citizenship you may have acquired by right of birth.
3. When you were born what was the nationality of your mother. Did she have more than one citizenship. If she had any citizenship other than Australian (even if held as a dual citizen) please provide evidence you have renounced any acquired citizenship
4. Ditto for Father
5.Probably ditto for fathers mother, mother’s mother father’s father and mother’s father
daretotread @ #391 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 5:08 pm
Sounds like the ALP process.
Fair point Dare To Tread
Unlike Julie Bishop got away with attempted Murder during her days as a Aspestos lawyer,
Johnson and Johnson got a big slap on the wrist and was ordered to pay $500M to a cancer victim:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/johnson-and-johnson-loses-525-million-talc-verdict-in-us-20170821-gy17pu.html
Imagine if this was the same here!
GG
I’m not too fussed if they hold dual citizenship. The point about not trusting the parties is that this will just keep rolling on forever unless someone outside steps in. Almost no-one is going to be satisfied that because politician X says (s)he has been vetted that it will just go away. There are just too many points to be scored by all sides and journalists, and even some crackpots with an obsession with the constitution.
This is what happens under a Tory, worker hating Govt:
The AMWU @theamwu
6h
“”This is industrial blackmail.” – @sallymcmanus”
I’m not sure that shifting the onus onto the AEC to check is workable. The time between close of nominations and the ballot drawer atm is a matter of hours – no real opportunity to check anything other than that the paperwork has been completed. And, in the end, it all boils down to the nominee being truthful about their circumstances.
I don’t think the present bar is too high. Maybe we should regard it as a competency test – if you can’t get this right, you’re not up to being a legislator.
Yes
The High Court needs a matter before it.
It does not do advisory opinions
Bemused
Quite!
I am not sure it is fair and reasonable to leave it simply to the parties/candidates. The ALP had scares especially because of its many Greek candidates and has got a good system in place (at least in Victoria and Qld).
However we DO live in a democracy and independents and small parties have a right to be represented. The system needs to provide a way of helping
z
“I’m not sure that shifting the onus onto the AEC to check is workable. ”
Every doctor and nurse etc has to send in loads of supporting documentation of their degrees, specialist qualifications, working with children certificate etc when they apply to a hospital and get all the boxes ticked.
The same could happen with applying for parliament and the AEC.
BW
**I believe that the US reduced the spatial accuracy of GPS during the first Iraq War.**
.
I was of the understanding they turned off the Selective Availability during the war because the military didnt have enough ‘military’ GPS units and were relying on commercial units.
They turned it off completely in 2000 ish. but even tho China and Russia (and Europe) have their own GPS and the US say it will thus never turn it back on, I expect the US will turn it back on during a conflict. Glonass (the Russian GPS) is dodgier than a Greek handyman’s three story extension project.
As mentioned, I doubt spoofing will effect the US armed forces. Even jamming is unlikely now with the new breed of GPS sats up and running – the US have not been asleep with their GPS system, continually upgrading it for military purposes.
IMO. the only way US naval vessels could be having accidents due to GPS is if, for some reason, they were using the civilian code signal for navigation.