Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.
Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.
RD has got his desperate plus enabled.
Rex Douglas @ #299 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:07 pm
Nope. If Shorten does it all he does is open the floor to wild accusations, and establish a precedent that Labor will meet unsubstantiated wild accusations with documentation. Which just encourages more fishing expeditions.
And also I have little confidence that the right won’t descend into birther-level incredulity upon seeing Shorten’s documentation.
The only way to win this game is not to play. It’s good that Shorten seems to know this. It somewhat makes up for his lack of oration skills.
Rex,
You won’t listen to us, so maybe you will listen to Tanya Plibersek.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-22/demands-for-proof-of-labor-mp-citizenship-nutsy-cuckoo-territory/8831390
a r @ #302 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:11 pm
well, not really
Barney in Go Dau @ #303 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:21 pm
Like Kim Carr, Tanya is in self-preservation mode. Reverting to language such as that looks a bit desperate.
“The only way to win this game is not to play. It’s good that Shorten seems to know this.”
And the way to lose it IS to play. Shorten is somewhat encouraging the Libs to play. Good, but obvious move on his part.
A bit surprising that the Libs are stupid enough to go with it.
RD should stop being demanding little shit.
Rex Douglas @ #304 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:22 pm
Perhaps. Being from the States I’m not the best judge. I want to see Shorten bring the fight. Like a loudmouthed American Sanders, or even a Corbyn, who says rallying, emotive things. But that might not really be the Australian style. Or might not have been, until Abbott broke it.
zoidlord @ #307 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:26 pm
It is very easy to block posters that don’t add to your day
Dovey @ #309 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:28 pm
echo chambers are such unhealthy places
a r @ #308 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:28 pm
Oh, you want him to sound like Reagan, don’t you?
😛
What does it matter HOW “determined” his opponents get?
Shorten is either eligible or he isn’t.
If he isn’t, then this will eventually be found out, and it will probably be curtains for his political career. Such a cover-up would be too culpable to be excused… which leads me to believe that Shorten is telling the truth. The alternative is too awful for him.
If he is eligible, especially if some public spirited citizen hauls him before the High Court (only to find that Shorten was truthful all along) then his opponents will look like gooses and sore losers.
If the government makes enquiries with the UK government, then just WHO is “conspiring with a foreign government” now? Going nuclear by the Australian government officially involving the British government would make a casual question from a Penny Wong staffer to a NZ Labour opposition staffer look as innocent as Virginia asking if there really is a Santa Claus. It’s Turnbull who has form on sneakiness (cf. Utegate), not Shorten.
To me Shorten’s confidence indicates that he knows he is and was eligible, and in the unlikely case that he is mitaken about this, that it wasn’t for lack of trying, i.e. he has certainly taken “reasonable steps”. He has not asked any government members to “prove” their own exclusively Australian citizenship. It’s the back-room meddlers and muck rakers who have done that, leading to various Coalition MPs and Senators to out themselves. Noassistance fromLabor required. And boy didn’t that cosy little effort at a political exposé backfire! Turns out a couple of matches lit under the Greens by some Coalition friendlies have turned into the Black Friday bushfires… for the government.
The best thing for Shorten would be for Turnbull (or someone acting for him) to be caught “making enquiries” (if they haven’t already). I know who would be exposed as the hypocrite in the woodpile then.
[Rex Douglas
…
Like Kim Carr, Tanya is in self-preservation mode. Reverting to language such as that looks a bit desperate.]
“self-preservation mode”?
Rex, you’re starting to sound like Julie Bishop.
Can you tell us about about it, what is Tanya trying to preserve that has been so damaged?
Bushfire Bill:
“If the government make enquiries with the UK government, then just WHO is “conspiring with a foreign government” now?”
Yes, the “government” have shot themselves in the foot with Julie Bishop’s claims last week.
Barney in Go Dau @ #313 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:36 pm
If Albanese is installed as leader I’d expect someone from the right be installed as deputy leader.
Well, everyone who was saying Tony Abbott should just “produce the documents”, must apply the same standard to Bill Shorten. All the excuses for Shorten also would apply to Abbott.
Shorten is a West Indian says Turnbull will be the next headline.
BB,
Agree. Shorten needs to just stand his ground and stare down those doing the slandering.
There was an interesting piece this morning re Turnbull and his Government go backwards in the polls whenever Parliament is sitting. The reason being touted is that the Libs full blown hyperbole about Shorten is a total negative to the Voters.
Bill Shorten doesn’t need to bow down to the likes of LNP.
LNP also attacked Shorten in thr very biased Royal Commission.
I believe RD also attacked Shorten during that Royal Commission.
So I would take anything that RD as a grain of salt.
@Peter Love
Tony Abbott never produced his papers.
I havent blocked anyone here. Id like to think the feelings are mutual.
[Rex Douglas
…
If Albanese is installed as leader I’d expect someone from the right be installed as deputy leader.]
Fantasy!
What I find interesting about Shorten’s case is that no journalist has apparently been privy to these papers. Often in instances like this, a politician will show a journalist they may be close to the documents involved to help bat away the questions. To hark back to Q&A, Shorten conveyed nothing but untrustworthiness in the way he ducked and weaved around that series of questions. The parallel he drew with the US birther movement was silly. These are real and present questions affecting many MPs in Australia – granted Labor is unaffected to date, but that alone doesn’t do anything to make the birther comparison anything but dopey.
Ides of March @ #321 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:43 pm
Seems like you are one of the sensible people who can handle differences of opinion.
I don’t block as a matter of principle.
Tried it once to see what it was like and it was weird getting half of conversations.
Thomas Paine 2.0,
This place can be called an echo chamber at times for many good reasons but disagreeing with your confirmation bias is not one of them.
alias @ #323 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:48 pm
Yes, the birther stuff is overreach given the reality of this issue.
It just makes you wonder whether in fact he IS in trouble.
Rex,
The only wonder here is as Elvis put it so well, “The Wonder of you”!
Why should Shorten jump just because some wanking liberal or journo says he should?
Cupid .. I know what you mean but if it’s going to be a significant distraction to attacking the LNP then why persist with it? Why not just disclose the documents? As I said yesterday, Shorten already has a problem with appearing shifty. Why add fuel to that fire? It makes no sense.
Rex:
“Yes, the birther stuff is overreach given the reality of this issue.
It just makes you wonder whether in fact he IS in trouble.”
Do you really think Shorten would be stupid enough to not have dotted his i’s and crossed his t’s on this “issue” when he entered parliament, especially after nominating for leadership of the party, and after the comments he made last week re: Barnaby Joyce? Apparently, you do.
How do this lying thieving bunch of scumbag, pus filled pustules look at themselves in the mirror? Just read on ABC that Joyce and Canavan have admitted dual citizenship but will they resign? not on your fekkin Nellie. Now the closet Liberal Nick Xenaphony says he will support the random drug testing legislation. He’s already admitted he has some sort of British citizenship but will keep voting. There has to be a way of bringing on an election….
I certainly don’t think that Shorten is the masterful strategist that some here like to believe he is and I certainly put a lot more of his success down to luck than clever politicking (although it should be noted that success is often defined as how we take advantage of lucky breaks) but the reality is the Turnbull Govt is clearly terminal and, barring some unforeseen variable shaking things up (a leadership change in the Liberal ranks isn’t it), Labor are on-track to win government at the next election.
You can debate your feelings about Bill Shorten all you want or how much credit he personally gets. The fact is he is the leader of a party who are ready and eager to win government. To shake that up with some pointless leadership change for the hell of it, because feelings, would be completely illogical. No amount of goalpost-shifting will change that.
Here is a plausible scenario (not saying it’s true just speculating..) Let’s say Shorten does have some citizenship issue. Let’s say it’s not the immediate one we know about ie his British father but it’s more of the Xenophon variety – an obscure angle no one had seen coming. OK, so suppose Shorten is onto this but no one else including his opponents has enough documentary evidence to go in hard. What does he do? Perhaps he decides: Wait till these seven cases go the High Court and hope like hell the HC waters down S44 (i) in a manner that gets him off the hook. Then find a way down the track to quietly let slip this detail about his background.
Calling people “scumbag, pus filled pustules”, and such like, is a breach of this site’s standing orders.
Rex Douglas @ #326 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:51 pm
Clutching at straws Rex.
Labor does its homework. Read what Zoomster has previously described as the ALP vetting process.
If thee was anything on him, you can bet the Libs would have used it by now.
Mr Newbie @ #330 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 3:59 pm
His reluctance to settle the matter is illogical.
For various people on here and other sites that keep putting Bill Shorten down, if you think you have all the answers, nominate for the Labor party, get elected, challenge for the leadership, win and then you can lay out all the policies that you would implement, Until then STFU!. I’m no Shorten fan but he and his team are streets ahead of the mob that are supposed to be governing us.
The alt right makes all the rules here.
Rule 1. Assert that your political enemy is a liar.
Rule 2. Assert that your political enemy is lying about his citizenship.
Rule 3. Reverse the burden of proof.
Rule 4. Assert that your enemy is being devious, dishonest and guilty when your opponent fails to prove that he is innocent.
Rule 5. Get your favourite media outlets to run your lines.
Rule 6. Get your tame trolls to ‘reasonably’ demand that your enemy coughs up the proof.
Rule 7. When your enemy does provide documentary evidence that you were lying all along , demand that your enemy proves that the evidence is not fraudulent.
This is exactly how Birtherscrompton@hotmail.com operated.
Trump was the US main Birther.
Devious operators like RD apply the same technique to Shorten. RD is, after all, a concern troll.
Dingallings like Alias are dudded into going along for the ride.
RD
What reluctance?
The only one who is pushing for his details is you, the LNP who first made the claim, and media for pushing the agenda.
If you going to make a claim at least back it up with something.
Labor has said they have better vetting procedures than LNP and Greens because they can’t read the form.
So wrf is your problem ?
Barry Reynolds .. Your point is that it is inappropriate to debate the merits and demerits of the LOTO on a psephology web blog on the grounds that the person seeking to engage in such debate has not personally become LOTO? Right….
Sorry William, Please delete and put me in the naughty corner for as long as you think.
Rational Leftist @ #332 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:00 pm
Shorten may not be a masterful strategist or many other things. He doesn’t have to be and simply does not have enough hours in the day to do a lot of the stuff people here seem to think.
He has good staff to take on some of the work.
Shorten has two main roles. He leads his team, and he is the public front man who has mastered his brief.
That is really all he needs to do. But those are very demanding roles and will keep him very busy.
Paul Keating used “scumbag” and worse to good effect in Parliament.. Does that mean PK would be unwelcome to sign on here and use the sort of language for which he became well known?
“Scumbag” I’d allow, but not with all the other stuff piled on.
Peter Love
…and by the same logic anyone that didn’t call for Abbott to “produce the documents” must refrain from calling for Shorten to “produce the documents”. All the leeway granted to Abbott must be granted to Shorten.
Pretty sure that if he does anything like that, you’ll shift the goalposts again and blame him for being stupid enough to feed the flames of the issue, saying he should’ve ignored it all and focused instead on policy/attacking the Government.
BR
Good on you.
alias @ #333 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 4:04 pm
He could argue that by submitting to the ALP vetting process, he has taken all reasonable steps.
Barnyard and Cavanan can’t as they don’t seem to have any process. Ditto for the Greens. And maybe also any Libs caught out.
Liberal party pre-selection! At least he was an eligibile citizen.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-22/troy-bell-case-adjourned-to-december/8830578
Boerwar
sticks and stones….