Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Diogenes @ #413 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 6:30 pm

    Seriously, who trawls through the National Archives to look for a 1966 passenger card for some obscure MP?

    “An incoming passenger card from 25 July 1966 – found in the National Archives – shows Sudmalis listed her nationality as “British” when she returned to Australia as a 10-year-old after travelling overseas.”

    It’s technology driven.

    The information is there. But, you can now (Insert your preferred search engine) it.

  2. Boerwar

    My family records are correct, they arrived 1948, Nationality, Stateless.

    Josef Stalin, along with murdering millions, decreed that any Russian citizen living outside the Soviet Union without government approval had their citizenship cancelled. Dodgy roneoed identity cards was the best people had, and we are forever thankfull that Australia granted asylum and citizenship (after 2 years bonded work placement in the boondocks).

  3. I’m not reading patterns into anything, AB. Essential’s last four weekly results have been, in order, 53-47, 55-45, 53-47 and 53-47. The one and only reason the Coalition is up this week is that the 55-45 isn’t in the rolling average any more.

  4. S
    I believe that the majority of records would be correct. My point is that not all of the records are correct. I wonder whether, for the purposes of the Court of Disputed Returns, Archives records are always deemed to be correct.

  5. The Oz is running a Bob Katter S44 story
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bob-katter-slams-any-suggestion-he-could-be-lebanese/news-story/0e8f478b242e17125796e28f2c944839 paywalled, google to read or whatever

    Quick as a flash, Tim Beshara (an ex Green Staffer), pointed out…
    “It wasn’t Lebanon when his grandfather left it was the Ottoman Empire.”
    https://twitter.com/Tim_Beshara/status/899918036982943744
    “Here’s the naturalisation certificate for Bob Katter’s grandfather from 1905 noting that he was a NOT a citizen of any other country”
    https://twitter.com/Tim_Beshara/status/899919706248720384
    “How do I know this? My great grandfather left the Ottoman Empire at the same time. When he naturalised it was called Syria. Now it’s Lebanon”
    https://twitter.com/Tim_Beshara/status/899920003218030594

    Just like that, the story is dead (as far as facts go, but you’ll still hear about it in tomorrow’s media cycle). See Tim’s timeline for more.

  6. Should statues of RE LEE be removed?

    Well considering that most of them were put up in the 1950s as a middle finger to African Americans during the civil rights movement era (well, the one at that time), not to mention failed rebellions against your country, led by racists to protect a very racist institution is not something that should be publicly celebrated, yes, they should be removed from public land.

    Put that shit in a museum.

  7. Shellbell

    The Australian born and raised argument, hence ignorance of inherited foreign rights, may well fly. The existing precedents are all foreign born.

    There is still the thorny test of “reasonable attempts” – what if there has been no attempts? For example the Australian borm Fiona Nash, yet to be referred, said she “always thought she had to apply…”, and never did. Her 2 sisters apparently did, and happily travelled on UK passports. So was Nash just ignorant?

    The HC has the easy remedy – precedence.

  8. Libs need an election to clear the decks.

    The longer this goes, the longer the doubts of legitimacy will be in the media.

  9. [sonar
    Please,please,please let Katter be Lebonese….! lol]

    Except (I think) Katter has withdrawn support for the government on matters of confidence?

  10. GG:

    Yep I agree that the Libs need an election to settle things. They also need a wholesale clear-out of their ranks, many of whom in the ministry were there in the Howard era 10 years ago!

  11. Given that Katter’s father was born in Australia and was an MP I think it unlikely he still has lebanese citizenship. Might need to go back to Great, great grandparents

    “Katter was born in Cloncurry, Queensland, the son of Robert Carl Katter, the member for Kennedy from 1966-90, and his wife, Mabel, and raised Catholic[3] Katter Jr. is 4th, possibly 5th generation Australian.

    His father, Bob Katter Sr., ran a clothing store and a picture theatre in Cloncurry in 1942 and was a pioneer for the rights of the Indigenous community – taking down a barrier separating the whites from the blacks and giving Aboriginal station hands store credit for boots and clothes for station hand work. Bob Katter Jr. was an investor in cattle and mining interests before entering politics via the Queensland state parliament in 1974.”

  12. Well, this is where the whole S44 imbroglio becomes interesting, or so it seems to me.

    Bob Katter, or so I have been told, is a descendent of an Afghan Cameleer and an Indigenous Woman.
    Therefore, how can he, with Indigenous lineage, be anything other than an Australian citizen?

    That one has family back up the line who came from another country should not cancel out, by way of Dual Citizenship, the qualifications to stand for parliament of someone who can trace their family line back to Indigenous Australians, I would have thought.

  13. poroti:

    Yes that was my understanding as well. Though as Leroy pointed out it’s already been confirmed the Oz reporting is factually inaccurate.

  14. bemused

    Going back to pre-internet days when records were all paper and not online?”
    The online National Archives include Passenger Arrivals from 1898 to 1966 for some reason.

  15. C@t:

    The indigenous angle on S44 could conceivably apply to Ken Wyatt who has mixed ancestry other than his Aboriginality.

    This is precisely why I want to see that section of the Constitution reformed. Imagine if an ABoriginal member of parliament was found to be ineligible to hold office by way of dual citizenship? Totally farcical.

  16. “and we are forever thankfull that Australia granted asylum and citizenship (after 2 years bonded work placement in the boondocks)”.

    good luck to your family and you Sprocket, we need to hear more stories like this,

  17. Who do I believe, Catmomma or Beshara?

    Those Afghan Cameleers have a lot to answer for, releasing feral vermin into our desert environment.

  18. Poroti

    I suspect Katter might be both Lebanese and Afghani. His family have been in NQ a long time. he may even have some indigenous heritage, given where he comes from and the time his family have been here in Australia.

  19. It seems a person descended from a cameleer could be any of the following:

    The cameleers were collectively known as ‘Afghan’ cameleers. While some were originally from Afghanistan, others came from countries such as Baluchistan, Kashmir, Sind, Rajastan, Egypt, Persia, Turkey and Punjab, so spoke a variety of languages. Their common bond was their Islamic religion and the fact that they were almost exclusively young or middle-aged men.

    http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/afghan-cameleers

  20. Diogenes @ #478 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:12 pm

    bemused

    Going back to pre-internet days when records were all paper and not online?”
    The online National Archives include Passenger Arrivals from 1898 to 1966 for some reason.

    They were very clever knowing it would used against the future generations of the wogs arriving at that time.

    nothing changes.

  21. There might be a little bit of North Korean in Katter as well.

    He seems hell bent on destroying the world as we know it.

  22. confessions @ #479 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 8:12 pm

    C@t:

    The indigenous angle on S44 could conceivably apply to Ken Wyatt who has mixed ancestry other than his Aboriginality.

    This is precisely why I want to see that section of the Constitution reformed. Imagine if an ABoriginal member of parliament was found to be ineligible to hold office by way of dual citizenship? Totally farcical.

    Yes, that is the point I was making. It would see the whole shebang descend into farce.

    It’s time for multicultural Australian citizens to be allowed to be who they are and that, except for simple and obvious reasons, not be disallowed from becoming an MP.

  23. Bob Katter is an interesting character. Some of his views are more aligned with Labor and some more aligned with the Coalition. Somehow hes straddles that line. Maybe thats why he is so popular.

  24. I can’t see how how one leg of your ancestry can trump any other?

    The Constitution says dual citizens are ineligible to be elected to our parliament.

  25. He might straddle any number of lines, but he always votes with the consevatives, if the entited prick turns up to vote at all.

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