I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.
Further polling:
• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.
• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.
State matters:
• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.
• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.
guytaur
Well Tony Jones just did his best to make Dastyari the story and not Joyce.
Sam is clear what’s the issue
JB
No issue with Dastyari’s explanations. Just the rehashing of an old story that has been done to death by press already
Gay people can already have children Eric.
Lucky I got that in before Sam 🙂
Hah Good move by Dastyari releasing Abetz despicable past
Now the Christian dude says ‘nobody says it’s about the children’. He has no ears.
I think Jensen has been nice tonight. I dont agree with him or his argument.
Jensen was confused.
Next q&a will be Bill
IOM
Jensen tried to be nice. He still managed to insult anyone who did not have a mother an father as a child.
Caption time
Jensen told off Sam for calling the survey a joke after complaining that the ALP should have backed the plebiscite to avoid it.
GT
As I said, I didnt agree with him.
FrBower: #qanda my brother @mpjensen does not speak for the majority of #Christians on #marriageequaility
Lateline doing a highly amusing quote montage.
Does Malcolm want his 2 million back
Question
Jensen was confused.
____________________________________
He was desperately trying to show that the ‘no’ case can be civilised. Unfortunately, he just showed confusion and non-sequiturs.
Abetz was straight out insulting with his goings on about how two parent natural parents were the only good option for raising children (furthering the ongoing insulting of children of non-heterosexual partnerships and the total non-sequitur that this is related to the marital status).
Kim Rubenstein was, I’m pleased to say, very good. Tony Jones was very bad, in particular giving Abetz harassment rights against Sam Dastyari. Contrary to the views of some here, I thought Sam did extremely well in the face of tag-team bullying harassment by Jones and Abetz.
Religion should have no say. Especially those ones caught up in child sex abuse.
GT
My understanding is that the non Sydney Anglicans are not fussed. The Sydney Anglicans are more conservative and dont support SSM. Father Bower must somehow have not got the message.
jenauthor
Next q&a will be Bill
_____________________________________________
Should be terrific. Shorten is very good in this environment.
IOM
I understand the Sydney mob can give the US evangelicals a run for their money.
IoM
Father Bower must somehow have not got the message.
_________________________________________________________
I think Father Bower has gotten the message many times. To the frustration of the Sydney Diocese, he has binned it each time!
It’s Labor’s fault the govt couldn’t just proceed with a parliamentary vote?
NewbyNewbys: @Prufrockery Why does any journo/host let anyone bring parenting into this “debate” – marriage & kids – one not the least bit dependent on each other!
guytaur @ #2411 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 10:41 pm
He farted again, didn’t he?
TPOF,
Tony Jones needs to talk less. The sign of a good ref is how little you notice them.
confessions @ #2382 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 9:26 pm
I rather like Rhiannon. Or at least, I don’t know enough to dislike her. It’s Di Natale that needs to go.
Kon__K: #QandA if you’re serious about debating #MarriageEquality how about you have at least one gay person on panel. Seriously not good enough.
Cat
Mine is he just told me he is not resigning
Fess when he had a go at the ALP his point was the plebiscite would be better than the survey we have now. The only interpretation was that he was ridiculing the survey, and then he later got pissy about Sam calling it a joke.
PaulBongiorno: The Solicitor General is relying on a minority opinion ofSir William Deane as an activist judge. Must delight Barnaby & his hardline mates
AR:
Yes Di Natale is also a blight on the Greens. But the Rhiannon problem predates his leadership.
C@t,
Barnaby definitely has proud fart face.
guytaur @ #2430 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 11:02 pm
Surely the Solicitor General would understand that legal precedent is not set by minority opinions?
guytaur
Caption time
And I thought my ego would get a boost by being PM.
Disappointed at the Q&A debate. It got to a critical point where the anti-gay guys could have been drilled down.
Basically what is it about gay marriage that harms non gay people?
Had the anti-gays on the panel been pursued on this it would have reached a point where they would have revealed that their objection to gay marriage is fundamentally a belief that it would harm straight married people and underneath that is the irredeemably homophobic idea that there is something wrong or bad in gay people.
ar
I suppose it comes down to how many appointments you’ve made and how you think they will respond.
guytaur that’s something else that annoys me.
The “harm to children” argument was pursued, but not relentlessly enough.
Gay people raise children. SSM doesn’t change that fact.
Would you rather have children raised by a gay couple who are happily married or the same children raised by a gay couple who have been told that their marriage doesn’t count?
That’s the point at which I just want to put a brick through the TV aimed at Abetz. He’s a nasty piece of homophobic filth.
Rhiannon saved the Greens from voting with the L-NP on education.
$2 million. What was I thinking!
Where is the Solicitor General’s opinion of which Bongiorno speaks?
TPOF @ #2417 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 10:46 pm
Don’t be afraid to disagree. You may well be the one who is correct.
I thought Sam did OK.
I was surprised, but yes it is Anglican.
CC
Yep. A few people are probably reading that press release Senator Dastyari produced and recoiling in horror.
Shellbell
Comment by Brandis on Lateline
Bemused
Sam did well. My complaint was about Jones bringing it up yet again. Let the LNP side skate through with hardly a mention.
In a moment I’ll practice my double facepalm…
guytaur @ #2421 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 10:49 pm
Mike Carlton used to write some hilarious columns about them in the SMH.
Good Morning AmericaVerified account @GMA
“It does meet the definition of domestic terrorism…” – AG Jeff Sessions on attack in Charlottesville
https://twitter.com/GMA/status/897055720851492865
Trump further isolated with his mealy mouthed comments.