I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.
Further polling:
• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.
• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.
State matters:
• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.
• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.
Yep,
If Barnaby stays the 2 Greens will be able to nominate for their seats back.
ABC reporter Rebecca Armitage seems to be missing the point that a candidate is required to check their status before running, so all she has done here is prove just how easy it is to avoid such a problem…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-14/citizenship-scandal-its-lucky-im-not-a-politician/8805576
Yo, Bro! Munted, eh?
Alias
But what will the HC think of an MP who couldn’t do four clicks on a PC to check eligibility?
It is in the Constitution, so is it unreasonable that a prospective MP should be aware of their obligations and make inquiries to ascertain their eligibility?
Any HC ruling that would make Ludlam or Waters eligible solves itself since the vacancies would be casual and they could be reappointed to them.
Resigning when in doubt doesn’t pose any jeopardy issues in that sense.
“if you were unaware of your status, then you could hardly be expected to take reasonable steps. ‘
Yup…however. If you are nominating as a candidate, its reasonable that you taker steps to actually ascertain your status to ensure that what you are solemnly declaring is true. If you rely on an assumption about your status, then on your own head be it if that assumption is wrong.
Latika asks a genuine question.
murpharoo: One of the lovely ironies about the Joyce case: red meat conservatives pray for judicial activism theguardian.com/australia-news… #auspol
https://twitter.com/murpharoo/status/897011760892264448
Congratulations B,
What’s Lithuanian for Bonza?
Sprocket:
Haere rā Barnaby!
alias
Letting people off because they were unaware of their status fails on at least two counts:
1. How can one judge if they were unaware of their status? Because they tell you they weren’t?
2. It would encourage people not to check, because then they can argue they didn’t know. That would be counter productive, surely.
Ignorance of the law is no excuse.
Congrats, Bonza.
One of my Lithuanian aunts has made contact after a long silence (my mother thought she had died). We have asked her to try and obtain the documents we need to prove my father’s status, so we’ll see what transpires…
guytaur:
Did you see this tweet from earlier? Lovely!
Mark Newton @NewtonMark 5h5 hours ago
Dear Barnaby Joyce: We all understand, it isn’t something you choose, it’s something that just happens when you’re born.
I thought all this citizen stuff was a bit of a yawn until Barnaby. Now I think the constitution has to be respected to the full extent.
Puff .. yes fair point. I suppose the key there is that the HC might set some sort of threshold as to whether the ordinary person on the Clapham Omnibus would be expected to turn his or her mind to these questions in all the circumstances. And in one way, it does seem “reasonable” that if you’re gunning for high office that you ought to have the nous and sense of solemn duty to investigate these matters if any of your parents or grandparents were born abroad.
Question
If you’ve resigned from a job, you don’t get it back just because you were wrong to resign in the first place.
In the case of the two Greens, they went voluntarily.
To suggest they could just decide to come back because they made a mistake it like saying someone could resign from Parliament and then say a few months later “Oh, I didn’t mean it, give me my seat back.”
zoomster
Sorry if I’ve missed your reply.
But, have you demonstrated just how easy it is to know if you have NZ citizenship (within a coupla minutes) for Barnarby Joyce as you did for Larissa Waters Canadianship?
Ya know, coupla minutes. No biggy.
Easy peasy.
And, if you have, then you should be demanding his removal, toot sweet.
zoomster
alias
Letting people off because they were unaware of their status fails on at least two counts:
1. How can one judge if they were unaware of their status? Because they tell you they weren’t?
2. It would encourage people not to check, because then they can argue they didn’t know. That would be counter productive, surely.
Ignorance of the law is no excuse.
Zoom…Candidates offer themselves as potential law-makers. They should be able to meet the minimum requirements of the law relating to candidates, and check their own eligibility…as you have had to do. There also needs to be fair treatment as between candidates, so that they all have to comply with the same standards. There should not be a lesser standard available to the lazy, indifferent or incompetent candidate.
kezza
No, because it seems fairly obvious without checking.
I didn’t realise I was lobbying for Barnaby to stay.
Question @ #2314 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 7:59 pm
Yyes, we are all pedantic Black Law Constitutionalists now!
…oh, and I never demanded that Waters resign. She’d already done it.
Is Barnaby a good trade for the the return of the two Greens senators in the eyes of Turnball? You have to imagine the Greens are celebrating at the moment. Potentially undoing their dual citizenship debacle, slight uptick in the polls after their housing policy announcement and everyone talking about more LNP hypocrisy. Everything’s coming up Green (I am not a green).
zoomster briefly et al.
Joyce has said in interviews he checked. He has tweeted it. So therefore the only question is were those steps reasonable. Not if he was ignorant but if his checks failed or he deliberately hid the results.
Ignorance certainly no defence
Question:
Me too! I was kind of hoping Barnaby was a citizen of a non-English speaking country which would at least explain why I can never understand him and have always said TV broadcasts should have subtitles when showing his press conferences etc. 😆
Yes fair point Zoomster .. On that basis, everyone in the current crop is a goner except arguably Roberts who could (at a stretch) try to argue he met the reasonable steps threshold (though it seems very doubtful that flapping your arms and writing emails is enough)
BC:
With 4Corners imminent I doubt the Greens will be celebrating right about now.
BC
Greens could not have asked for better day for this story to break. 4Corners political impact on Green internals will have been blunted
Good luck Zoomster, I recall there’s a form you can get from the consulate, it involves things like ‘where in Lithuania did your ancestor live’. If you can get that info from your aunt you can proceed without her, as that form gets sent to some archive department. If she had to flee during the war, get her to provide details, in Lithuanian if possible.
[zoomster
Question
If you’ve resigned from a job, you don’t get it back just because you were wrong to resign in the first place.
In the case of the two Greens, they went voluntarily.
To suggest they could just decide to come back because they made a mistake it like saying someone could resign from Parliament and then say a few months later “Oh, I didn’t mean it, give me my seat back.”]
But in reality it would be like someone in the Reps being found ineligible sorting out the issue and then standing again in the by-election.
Well we are getting a job-lot from the HC. All four of Ludlum, Waters, Roberts and Canavan having directions hearing on 24th August. All notice exactly the same. With the name changex.
news.com.au is running a poll: should Barnaby resign over s.44?
This is the sort of unscientific poll that Murdoch media likes. Currently the results are not good for Barnaby:
Yes 60.91% (32,911 votes)
No 39.09% (21,123 votes)
Total Votes: 54,034
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/barnaby-joyce-embroiled-in-dual-citizenship-saga-and-has-referred-himself-to-the-high-court/news-story/68bfb48953c7cc314a03e6ba99873e4c
Bonza
I need to get the record of his birth, which is available from the archives. She still lives there, and was born in the same parish, so I’m hoping she’ll save me the research fee!
Oops! Not the Kiwi,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHLpHlBUAAA7P_K?format=jpg&name=large
It would appear that the Greens were willing to be candidly interviewed for this 4C report so if you’re hoping for something super explosive I suspect you’re going to be disappointed.
Besides which 4C doesn’t usually have much effect on polling because it’s not watched by many people, 4C can have a big impact when they turn up something big enough to explode across the media (which sometimes happens because they do excellent journalism) but it’s hardly got a huge dedicated audience.
citizen @ #2331 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 8:09 pm
No paywall on that so have your say.
Actually, subtle wording changes in the Ludlum/Waters notices as the have resigned already
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHLpQPUV0AIkVb9?format=jpg&name=large
The Canavan and Roberts ones seek direction from the HC
“Roberts who could (at a stretch) try to argue he met the reasonable steps threshold”
Alternatively he could argue that it would be unfair to expect him to meet a “reasonable person” test.
My excitement that Joyce might be given his marching orders by the High Court has been somewhat tempered by Antony Green’s pronouncement that he can simply denounce his NZ citizenship and run again in the by-election. Given the ease with which he won in 2016, plus all the pork barrelling he has done since, there is about zero chance that he will lose the seat IMO.
zoomster @ #2323 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 8:03 pm
I’m not saying you asked Larissa Waters to resign, but you did make quite a bit deal about how easy it as for her to check her status.
I’m just surprised you’re not levelling the same sort of stuff at Barnaby, and not levelling the same sort of criticism at his party.
I think you timed it at 7 minutes of someone’s time to find out, and resign.
Just sayin’
If there was a New England by-election, and the voters were strategic, they’d elect an independent who could secure heaps more pork for the electorate in return for striking a deal to secure the future of the government.
True, but it will quite likely be on high rotation on the ABC tomorrow. Barnaby’s issues will detract from mass reporting however, but I think it’s a stretch to believe that the Greens would be sanguine about the forthcoming program. It’s been a nightmare few months for the Greens, and I reckon they’d want to move on from having aired their dirty laundry in public view.
Re the ALP:
In the Cleary case, both the ALP and the Lib candidate were declared to have been ineligible due to dual citizenship, even though they didn’t win. So the ALP has certainly had a *candidate* declared ineligible and it is possible that they took their cue for this.
In any case, kudos to the ALP for being on top of it.
This is worth the effort!
https://t.co/59JA9Dtj4a
roweafr: quarantine @FinancialReview #BarnabyJoyce #auspol pic.twitter.com/x6qx5iUNAX
Kezza:
Perhaps zoomster just has higher expectations of Waters than Barnaby. I mean, this is Barnaby a man who spent a Senate Estimates hearing sloshed and intent on nailing Mike Quigley and Stephen Conroy for having a secret magic button hidden in the minister’s office that they were using to connect households to the NBN. And no I’m not kidding, I was watching that night and to this day remains the most entertaining night’s viewing I’ve seen. He really did believe there was a big red button that was pushed to connect people.
Zoom.
If Barnaby is OK then there is nothing stopping the Greens from nominating. I also imagine the nominations would be granted by the party.
Elaugaufein @ #2334 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 8:11 pm
Well last week, 4 Corners had a national audience of 787,000 and was the 8th highest rating show of the night, outperforming ABC News, 7.30 and Australian Story.
kezza
Yes, I established – for several different citizenships, not just Canadian – that it is relatively quick and easy for anyone to check whether they are citizens of another country. Having established that, I don’t see why I need to rush to google every time someone’s citizenship status is raised.
Take a look at @roweafr’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/roweafr/status/897039664443383808?s=09
David Rowe second cartoon today, he told me this morning he is travelling
Question
Of course the Greens can nominate, regardless of whether Barnaby is OK or not, if they have now renounced their citizenship. That’s not the same as taking back their resignations.