Saturday snippets

Detailed polling on same-sex marriage and republicanism, plus state electoral developments in New South Wales and South Australia.

I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.

Further polling:

• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.

• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.

State matters:

• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.

• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,482 comments on “Saturday snippets”

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  1. [guytaur
    craigthomler: As @Barnaby_Joyce is illegally elected his department cannot carry out any of his instructions without potential for legal challenge #auspol
    ]

    He is legally elected until such time as the HC says he is not.

    That is why asking someone who is found ineligible to pay back monies received is wrong.

    They perform the duties of any other Member or senator and their votes on legislation are valid.

    The only exception I would make is if they were playing out a deliberate, planed fraud.

  2. oh frabjous day
    Barnaby as torpedo aimed at the Coalition below the water line.
    This looks just so bigly bad that even many of the CPG can’t ignore it. The gov’t now in chaos, lurching from crisis to crisis, Morrison’s lies exposed, botched IT everywhere, botched ME survey.
    For anyone paying even a modicum of attention, the Coalition look irredeemably incompetent.

  3. Don’t know if that worked – the ALP form issued to candidates.

    It asks:

    1. Are you an Australian citizen?

    2. Are you the citizen of another country?

    3. Do you hold a passport issued by another country?

    4. Are any of your parents or grandparents citizens of another country? If yes, which country/s?

    5. For the following question, please write down the country of birth of the named person.

    Myself; Father; Paternal grandfather; Paternal grandmother; Mother, Maternal grandfather, Maternal grandmother.

    Even has a bit on what to do if you’re adopted or stateless (or any of the above were).

    Then what happens is that it gets fired off to the ALP lawyers who check out the details and ask pertinent questions.

  4. I think Catholics should all be booted out of parliament as they have an allegiance to the Pope who is the head of a foreign country. 😉

  5. Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 6:37 pm

    The only exception I would make is if they were playing out a deliberate, planed fraud.

    Which isn’t out of the question, although political frauds tend to be geared more towards personal enrichment. I can’t think of any plausible motive for fraud that would rely upon or even benefit from having dual-citizenship.

  6. Barney

    Maybe if Joyce has a farm in NZ he could benefit as Agriculture Minsiter. It would explain his alleged Murray Darling Basin role with water allocation.

  7. Thanks Zoomster .. It does sound rather thorough however if I were Tony Burke I wouldn’t be sounding quite so cocksure. It’s called tempting fate.

  8. “I think Catholics should all be booted out of parliament as they have an allegiance to the Pope who is the head of a foreign country.”

    That case has been litigated…

  9. Phillip Coorey –

    Leading constitutional lawyers believe the government is putting a brave face on the Barnaby Joyce situation and will need a generous interpretation of the Constitution by the High Court to prevent the Deputy Prime Minister being dismissed from Parliament.

    But Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, based on advice from the Commonwealth Solicitor-General, is supremely confident both Mr Joyce, and Nationals Senator Matt Canavan will be cleared.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/lawyers-and-government-differ-on-barnaby-joyces-fate-20170814-gxvusr#ixzz4piZ3g46y

  10. You would think from Turnbull’s body language in parliament today, that he must be wondering why he thought selling your soul to the RWNJ and ponying up $2 mill of your own money, was actually worth it.
    A case of be careful what you wish for?

  11. a r

    It can’t do both at once. If it encodes recoverable information, then it’s not a hash. If it’s a hash, then electorate/age/gender information has to come from somewhere else.

    Well your barcode on the survey form could be just a unique random number and appended to that number is an encrypted form of the age/gender/electorate information. That barcode would then not require any lookup database. It would be self contained.

    Mind you this doesn’t answer the question of how you bring together information on age (which presumably comes from the ABS) with information on name/electorate which has to come from the AEC. At some point a database has to be generated that is a cross-match of the two data sets? And again, is this legal?

  12. [lizzie
    Ctar1

    BTW, Green was on ABC24 this arvo.

    Antony Green‏Verified account
    @AntonyGreenABC

    Replying to @berrylopork @Barnaby_Joyce @TonyHWindsor

    It would be a by-election but I doubt the High Court will disqualify Mr Joyce]

    Has anyone heard why Antony thinks Barnaby’s safe?

  13. alias

    Thanks Zoomster .. It does sound rather thorough however if I were Tony Burke I wouldn’t be sounding quite so cocksure. It’s called tempting fate.

    ______________________________________

    Labor has not pursued any member or senator on the possibility they may be dual citizens. The issue they are pursuing here is Joyce’s decision to remain as DPM and a Minister. Even if someone has slipped through the net, it makes no difference. First, because any such person is not a Minister of State and, secondly, because the political implications are quite different for the Opposition compared to the government.

  14. 🙂

    Conor Murtagh @conormurtaghRAW
    Barnaby Joyce a kiwi. The signs were there if only we knew to read them #auspol
    12:21 PM – Aug 14, 2017

  15. After tonight’s Four Corners, I think Lee Rhiannon will have a case to answer under s.44 for not renouncing her allegiance to the Soviet Union.

  16. “Has anyone heard why Antony thinks Barnaby’s safe?”

    Saw him on ABC24. Think he is proposing that because Barnyard had no reason to believe he was a Kiwi its reasonable that he hadn’t taken reasonable steps to renounce NZ citizenship. Its an argument, but i guess the HC will decide if it flys.

  17. Has anyone heard why Antony thinks Barnaby’s safe?

    Because he (apparently) didn’t know he was a dual citizen because he was not born in NZ or something like that. Basically the same reason Trumble’s using.

  18. TPOF .. Yes I get what you mean. But the fact remains that Barnaby fessed up because Fairfax was about to publish the story. Burke has been on radio emphatic there is no single Labor case where there may be citizenship issues. I’m just saying it’s silly to be so emphatic, even if you are privately very confident. You just never know, and if one oddball Labor one turns up, those clips of Burke’s emphatic statements will be replayed endlessly.

  19. A good one in the NT News

    The NT News ✔ @TheNTNews
    STILL SHOCKED ABOUT THIS BARNABY JOYCE CONTROVERSY. WE ALWAYS CONSIDERED HIM AS AUSSIE AS RUSSELL CROWE, PHAR LAP AND SPLIT ENZ #auspol
    9:11 AM – Aug 14, 2017 · Darwin, Northern Territory
    28 28 Replies 434 434 Retweets 864 864 likes

  20. The ABC News doesn’t seem quite sure to say about this crisis.

    I guess the HC is not going to be able delay ruling on these s. 44 matters.

  21. alias,

    They are different because they they were born in another country.

    Barnaby’s case comes down down a different issue citizenship by descent.

    It’s a point that hasn’t been tested before the HC so there is nothing to compare it with.

  22. craigthomler: @AdamSpenceAU @paulwiggins @katedoak @Barnaby_Joyce Constitution makes no mention of ‘discovery of citizenship’. Only that it exists or no, & whether reasonable efforts are taken to reject it

  23. PvO has been having fun on twitter at Barnaby’s expense. Very amusing.

    You would think from Turnbull’s body language in parliament today, that he must be wondering why he thought selling your soul to the RWNJ and ponying up $2 mill of your own money, was actually worth it.

    Some of us were only wondering yesterday why Turnbull hasn’t pushed back hard against the reactionaries. They are never going to respect whatever authority he has left and it isn’t as if he couldn’t independently fund his own preselection if they threatened him with that like they did to Tim Wilson and others who refused to toe the line.

  24. Elaugaufein @ #2203 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 6:00 pm

    Bemused
    Believe it was an ALP candidate who was enrolled in the military at the time (and so got hit with office of profit) , can’t remember the details which is why I said I believe.

    Any idea how long ago? Doesn’t ring any bells with me, but I certainly remember Jackie Kelly in that situation and would have thought I would be even more likely to remember an ALP candidate.

    dave @ #2264 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    Phillip Coorey –

    Leading constitutional lawyers believe the government is putting a brave face on the Barnaby Joyce situation and will need a generous interpretation of the Constitution by the High Court to prevent the Deputy Prime Minister being dismissed from Parliament.

    But Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, based on advice from the Commonwealth Solicitor-General, is supremely confident both Mr Joyce, and Nationals Senator Matt Canavan will be cleared.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/lawyers-and-government-differ-on-barnaby-joyces-fate-20170814-gxvusr#ixzz4piZ3g46y

    Great pic of Barnyard.

  25. Barney .. But what if the High Court decides to look more closely at the question of a person’s level of awareness of their foreign citizenship. That applies in several of these cases including Waters.

  26. SS44 seems pretty clear when you read it. You are not eligible to stand for parliament if you are a dual citizen.
    I do not recall reading anything about your state of knowledge of the matter being part of the equation.

    1) Aussie only = Yes —- 1a) Stand for Parliament
    2) Aussie and Anything Else = Yes —- Go To 3)
    3) Have you tried to renounce your Anything Else? = Yes —- Got To 1a), = No —- Go To 4)
    4) Don’t let the door hit you on your arske on the way out.

  27. [alias
    What happens to Ludlam and Waters if the High Court makes a ruling that would render them in the clear?
    ]

    It’s highly unlikely that this would occur.

    They are not disputing that they were ineligible and it’s an issue that has precedent so the HC may kick it downstairs to the Supreme Court to act as the CoDR who would rubber stamp their ineligibility and call for a recount.

    If however they did make a ruling clearing them, then having resigned from the Senate they would declare the vacancies casual ones and as such the Greens would nominate the replacements.

    In this case there would be nothing stopping the Greens nominating Ludlam and Waters as the replacements.

  28. From today’s Crikey:

    So Joyce is off to the High Court along with Matt Canavan and Malcolm Roberts. The list is getting so long, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has written to Bill Shorten asking if he has any contenders in his ranks that could be added to the list so they can be done as a job-lot.

    So if Labor has any potential dual citizens among its ranks the govt has given Shorten an opportunity to have their cases heard. If they exist you’d have to think Shorten would take the PM up on his offer – he’d be silly not to as journos are just going to keep digging on this.

  29. Puff .. My thought is that since the HC has already turned its collective mind to the notion of taking all reasonable steps to renounce (a concept not mentioned in s44) it seems not inconceivable that it would extend this concept to say that if you were unaware of your status, then you could hardly be expected to take reasonable steps. I mean who knows but that doesn’t seem completely off the charts.

  30. [frednk
    Will the HC have any sympathy for Australia and let the NZ claim stand.
    ]

    Maybe they could renounce his Australian citizenship under the terror legislation and order his deportation to NZ. 🙂

  31. Would you believe, today of all days, my Lithuanian dual citizenship just got approved, 23 and a half months since I applied! Not that I’m planning to run for parliament.

  32. The problem for Joyce and thus the government is this.

    janeyhasmoved: @AdamSpenceAU @eatatjoe2 Barnaby has said (repeatedly) that he checked his status, as did his staffer, How could he go the ‘unwitting by descent’ defence?

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