Saturday snippets

Detailed polling on same-sex marriage and republicanism, plus state electoral developments in New South Wales and South Australia.

I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.

Further polling:

• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.

• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.

State matters:

• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.

• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,482 comments on “Saturday snippets”

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  1. From the ABS itself…

    Secrecy

    ABS will keep the identity of all respondents separate from their survey responses at all times. The barcode on the survey form will be used for “mark-in” purposes only and is a single-use, anonymous, code. No person who sees or has any access to any completed forms will know both the name of eligible Australians and the related single-use code.

    The Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey will ask only a single question. While the Electoral Division for each response will also be captured, there will be no linkage of survey responses to other data (and any linkage will not be possible given the separation of responses from any identifying information and the use of an anonymous mark-in code).

    Survey responses will be anonymous and protected under the secrecy provisions of the Census and Statistics Act 1905.

    All ABS officers sign a secrecy and fidelity undertaking, legally binding them to never release information collected under the Census and Statistics Act 1905. Penalties include fines of up to $21,600 or imprisonment for up to 2 years, or both, for anybody convicted of breaching this obligation.

    Publishing Statistical Information

    The Australian Statistician will publish the statistical information on 15 November 2017 through the ABS Website.

    Results will be official statistics in the form of a count of response (Yes, No and Invalid) by Commonwealth Electoral Division (CED), State/Territory and National.

    Information from the Electoral Roll will be used independently to produce a participation rate by age and gender for each Commonwealth Electoral Division (CED), State/Territory and National.

    The answer to the survey question is anonymous so information on actual survey answers by age or gender will not be available.

    Can someone offer some thoughts on how the above is possible physically? Kevin around?

    There is a barcode on the survey form. Not the envelope but the survey form. There would be a database that links the barcode with the individual. I can only assume that this is handled by some piece of software. A human processes the form, ticks a “yes” or “no” on the screen and then swipes the barcode.

    Now that’s theoretically secure provided that the software itself is well written and the operator cannot do a barcode to individual lookup.

    But the thing that intrigues me is this. They are proposing to for each electoral division, publish aggregated information on gender and age group. I can only assume that this function is handled by a piece of software that has on its database

    – name
    – electoral division
    – age
    – gender
    – barcode

    Quite a sensitive database indeed. Of course you would expect that only privileged persons would have access to that database, but its something that would require further information to prove to me that it has high security (that only a very small number of individuals can see the non encrypted data and those people are themselves supervised and scrutinised.

    Now the question that goes begging is who has control of the software/database that runs this? Is it the ABS or the AEC? And who wrote the code? And who has privileged access? From which agency. My understanding was that the ABS has to subcontract to the AEC because only the AEC has the permission to see/use the electoral roll. Does this mean that the software that runs this thing is within the framework of the AEC? What does that mean as evidence for the High Court?

    Finally, the above gives me a definitive answer. They’re going to publish seat by seat statistics broken down by age and gender. Kevin may be right that from this information you can make a reasonable attempt at reverse engineering a “real” result. That is what the yes/no count would have looked like if everyone on the electoral roll had participated.

    That’s a hard ask. But I suspect that in the event of a narrow “no”, that statistical info will be vital and will be used to (quite legitimately) discredit the result.

    Good.

  2. Bemused
    Believe it was an ALP candidate who was enrolled in the military at the time (and so got hit with office of profit) , can’t remember the details which is why I said I believe.

  4. TPOF

    One thing is for sure, if the invalidity of a candidacy resulted in the awarding of elections in favour of the eligible candidate with the highest valid vote, there would be very few ineligible candidates in future.

  6. Its fairly trivially mathematically to assign a unique barcode to an elector without it being backwards traceable at all, so being able to ensure secrecy is certainly doable. You just have to insert a non-reversible step somewhere in the translation chain.

    Of course you have to trust the people in the chain adhere to protocol properly but that’s always been the case for postal / absentee / out of electorate ballots.

  7. Elgaufein

    The cases I’m aware of are: Phil Cleary et al; Jackie Kelly (who was a member of the ADF and a NZ citizen) and a PHON senator.

  8. samanthamaiden: Coalition wrote the book on painting Gillard government as illegitimate and unstable. They have taught Labor well. Can hardly complain now.

  9. billshortenmp: If today has taught us anything, it’s that you should check your details. Make sure you’re correctly enrolled check.aec.gov.au

  10. Briefly
    Or there’d be a sudden rise in the number of political parties with the number 2 on the end of their names :P.

  11. Diog

    As I’ve said before, Labor is pretty stringent on these matters, and has been since 1994 (the first election I was a candidate for). If they ask someone like me, running for an unwinnable seat, to check, they’d be even more careful with someone running for a safe or marginal seat.

  12. I wonder what Joyce trying to avoid taking responsibility for being a Kiwi will do to his chances in the poll assuming the HC does require a by election? The only question is his citizenship. The NZ government has said he is a citizen – and they told him last week. So why go to the HC, other than to delay the process? He is thumbing his nose at the constitution.

    Also, if this effectively rules out the government being able to credibly pass any legislation until Joyce’s case is resolved, are there grounds for anyone other than Turnbull to go the the GG and ask for a new election? does this now represent a hung parliament?

  13. Elaugaufein @ #2203 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 6:00 pm

    Bemused
    Believe it was an ALP candidate who was enrolled in the military at the time (and so got hit with office of profit) , can’t remember the details which is why I said I believe.

    Any idea how long ago? Doesn’t ring any bells with me, but I certainly remember Jackie Kelly in that situation and would have thought I would be even more likely to remember an ALP candidate.

  15. Elaugaufein presumably the barcode would be the product of a hash function.
    I could imagine the barcode would also include electorate/age group/gender information.

  19. Can’t find any evidence to suggest Mike Kelly’s eligibility was ever in question. I think people are confusing their Kellys.

  23. The failure of Joyce to stand aside is a contempt of the House..of the Constitution…of the voters…

    The single best thing that could happen in this case is for the CoDR to invalidate his election and to install Windsor.

  25. CTar1 @ #2196 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 5:55 pm

    Trouble coming up for the Coalition-

    Mr Katter says Mr Joyce shouldn’t be voting in Parliament while the High Court is hearing his matter.

    And he believes Mr Joyce will be found ineligible to sit in Parliament, forcing a by-election in the electorate of New England.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-14/politics-live-august-14/8802990

    Katter, as always talks a good fight. but, his record is to bluster and blather and then fold to the Conservatives or abstain after they find a new capital project for his electorate.

  26. Zoomster .. I’m interested: when ALP officials asked you to make the various checks, did someone then “check your work”, so to speak? That is did anyone go over your paperwork (or reasons for not having any) etc? Or did they take you at your word?

  27. If I recall, Barnaby was a Senator from Queensland, before becoming an MHR for an NSW seat. Where on earth (or not) does he come from?

  28. My mum just pointed out something.

    If age is not a piece of information available on the electoral roll, presumably there would have to be a database created by cross matching ABS and AEC data. Is that kosher?

  32. Ctar1

    BTW, Green was on ABC24 this arvo.

    Antony Green‏Verified account
    @AntonyGreenABC

    Replying to @berrylopork @Barnaby_Joyce @TonyHWindsor

    It would be a by-election but I doubt the High Court will disqualify Mr Joyce

  33. Will Windsor run if it means unseating Joyce? A man who defeated him at election, who he has a long history of despising? A man who confronted him on election night 2010 and ordered him to tow the LNP line? A man he considers an idiot and the biggest liability to the LNP? My gut says yes.

  34. craigthomler: As @Barnaby_Joyce is illegally elected his department cannot carry out any of his instructions without potential for legal challenge #auspol

  36. The barnaby recession we have to have.

    Kenny Devine‏ @TheKennyDevine 6h6 hours ago
    More
    BREAKING: Canberra pubs prepare for life post-Barnaby. “I’ll have to let staff go, obviously, & remortgage my house”, said one owner.

  37. cud chewer @ #2214 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 6:11 pm

    Elaugaufein presumably the barcode would be the product of a hash function.
    I could imagine the barcode would also include electorate/age group/gender information.

    It can’t do both at once. If it encodes recoverable information, then it’s not a hash. If it’s a hash, then electorate/age/gender information has to come from somewhere else.

  38. GG

    I’m surprised that Trumble allows his emotions to show so obviously. You’d think he had more pride. The only time he looks confident is when he’s slanging off Labor in QT.

  39. Clearly based on previous form someone in the coalition will claim it is All Labors Fault ® for section 44 problems.

    Unlike the Liberal or National parties, which didn’t exist in 1901, Labor did, and was a strapping 10 year old.

  42. alias

    They took me at my word, but they asked me several times (each time I ran). In some cases, I received official legal advice from fairly high powered lawyers as to the likelihood or otherwise of something to do with my situation (I was also a councillor, so ‘profit under the Crown’ came up) affecting my eligibility. As the legal advice, was obviously directed explicitly at me, I know they were diligent!

    Candidates I knew who were running in seats where there was a good chance they might win were interviewed face to face for hours to cover a whole range of issues.

  43. If you want a tangible marker of a prime minister broiling in a political pressure cooker, look no further than Malcolm Turnbull’s sweeping declaration in question time that Barnaby Joyce is eligible to sit in the parliament and the high court will hold it so.

    Not might hold, or will likely hold based on the legal advice we have from the solicitor general, but the high court will hold.

    Never mind the separation of powers. Never mind the appearance of firing off a direction to the good justices (people who, one suspects, don’t appreciate directions from parliamentarians, and in this case, the most powerful parliamentarian in the land).

    Never mind the risk that you’ll look pretty damned foolish if the high court has a different idea of what it might do with the deputy prime minister, and your words come back to haunt you.

    Short-term political calculations – the need to project a sense of certainty, to project a sense that your government isn’t turning to custard around you – trumps everything, apparently.

    All’s fair in love and in question time. Just fire up and worry about the consequences later.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/14/barnaby-joyce-a-new-zealand-citizen-thats-heart-stopping-territory-for-the-coalition?CMP=share_btn_tw

  44. It was all so easy when we were all British citizens. Then they brought in the Australian Identity and that poorly worded piece of nonsense combined with 70 years of post second world war immigration has created a real identity problem for second and third generation Australians.

  47. Imagine if the Republic was instituted and we only had Australians as our figure head leader.

    How would everyone feel if barnaby had been kicked upstairs to the job?

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