Saturday snippets

Detailed polling on same-sex marriage and republicanism, plus state electoral developments in New South Wales and South Australia.

I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.

Further polling:

• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.

• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.

State matters:

• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.

• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,482 comments on “Saturday snippets”

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  1. Blanket – New England is ‘cocky country’ a LGBTI candidate wouldn’t get a look in. ALP candidates are seen as ‘commies’.

    It’s a choice between conservative and super conservative

  2. A by-election is the default resolution for vacant seats (inherited from English convention) . Obviously that can’t work for the Senate (a single member by election would always return Labor or Liberal and fairly predictably which by state which is rather non-retrospective) so we use casual vacancies instead (we could use countbacks but those can be problematic as well, if say you run out of candidates of that party and then end up electing someone opposed on everything).

  3. I always saw Windsor as more of a hardcore independent centrist and kind of mix of liberal and conservative values. He supports deep cuts to carbon emissions, prefers Labors NBN and has campaigned against mining companies. He doesn’t as far as I know support marriage equality. We could do a lot worse than to have him return.

  4. Plebiscite bill is not a DD trigger (yet). The government didn’t pass it through the House again, instead the Senate was asked to reconsider (which it declined).

  5. Blanket Criticism @ #2147 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 4:57 pm

    Any thoughts / speculation on who the Labor candidate will be in the Division of New England by-election?

    If Labor really doesn’t have a high hope of winning, maybe a high-profile LGBTI candidate would do some good. Make the ME issue front and centre again. What’s Ian Thorpes political leanings? He’s from Sydney.

    There’s a reason I am not in charge of making these decisions.

    Your honesty is refreshing and endearing. 😛

    A LGBTI candidate as an independent would be of more value as they can campaign on a single issue whereas a Labor candidate can’t.

  6. The Nationals were originally very socialist with respect to agrarian stuff. Their long association with the Liberals (and mining / fracking money) has chipped that off them to a large extent. Katter and Windsor are both throwbacks in a lot of a ways (though very different ones).

  7. On ineligible MPs, vacancies in the Reps go to by-elections and vacancies in the Senate are filled by special count (recount minus the ineligible candidate). This is a result of previous court findings and is fair because in the Senate system the intent of the original voters can be, as best possible, preserved, while in the Reps it cannot. Indeed if there were just two candidates for a Reps seat a recount minus the ineligible member would automatically elect their opponent while denying more than half of the electorate a say, which is silly.

    If there was such a system for the Reps, parties would have an incentive to run multiple Reps candidates for the same seat, a practice which sends the informal rate through the roof and has now been prevented after the silly behaviour of the Christian Democrats at the Bradfield by-election.

  8. Blanket – Windsor is a sane conservative. He also understands that climate change and coal are bad for long term agricultural survival of his former electorate.

    I suppose he got rock star status amongst ALP ppl because he voted for Gillard over the insanity that is/was Abbott, but he is, at heart, a country conservative.

  9. Jenauthor in a certain sense, today’s labor party is a more “conservative” organisation than the Liberal Party (if you look at the traditional meaning of “conservative”). The liberals are mad radical free marketeers.

  10. Kevin Bonham @ #2163 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    On ineligible MPs, vacancies in the Reps go to by-elections and vacancies in the Senate are filled by special count (recount minus the ineligible candidate). This is a result of previous court findings and is fair because in the Senate system the intent of the original voters can be, as best possible, preserved, while in the Reps it cannot. Indeed if there were just two candidates for a Reps seat a recount minus the ineligible member would automatically elect their opponent while denying more than half of the electorate a say, which is silly.

    If there was such a system for the Reps, parties would have an incentive to run multiple Reps candidates for the same seat, a practice which sends the informal rate through the roof and has now been prevented after the silly behaviour of the Christian Democrats at the Bradfield by-election.

    Thanks Kevin.
    So it would have been futile reading the whole Act, I would have had to research all the HC decisions.

  11. Elaugaufein: Very well, I stand corrected. In that case the DD option is difficult as well, so an early election before late 2018 (when it is expected anyway) will be very difficult to engineer.

  12. If Tony Windsor did run again, and won (surely he must have a shot) would that be shades of Bass. It really would be a crippling blow to this govt.

  13. Martin B @ #2170 Monday, August 14th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Elaugaufein: Very well, I stand corrected. In that case the DD option is difficult as well, so an early election before late 2018 (when it is expected anyway) will be very difficult to engineer.

    I am not sure it is quite as simple and Elaugaufin did hedge his bets a bit.
    In 1975 IIRC, the Senate’s refusal to consider was deemed to be a failure to pass.

  14. A11

    Odds would be that seat if it went to Windsor would become a Labor supporting one in a confidence motion. So with no change thats the one seat majority gone

    With Katter issues press releases of don’t assume I support the government that could be a minority Labor government.

  15. Incredibly sloppy by Barnaby and what does it imply about his decisions making as a minister, does he check what is put in front of him or just sign away. Clearly did not check creek level when he wrote off his $80k government car.

    To use the excuse he thought he was ok is also incredible.
    This excuse does not work and has not worked with schappelle and co, check your own bags, do your own checks.

  16. michellegrattan: Malcolm has ruled Barnaby eligible to sit – so High Court might as well skip this case and get on with other work

  17. If the Plebiscite bill has gone through the House again and the Senate refused to consider it, then yes that would be a DD trigger by precedent.

    I don’t think the Senate declining to excercise it’s power to revisit a bill that hasn’t passed the House again would be a valid trigger (if nothing else the potential for mischief is far too high).

  18. As I said before I am sure about Joyce’s honesty – he is as honest as he is intelligent. So this quote from those who proved his dual citizenship is a true measure of the character of this fine man.

    “The story was just about ready to go when Joyce got to his feet in the House of Representatives to tell a stunned Parliament he may be a dual citizen and would refer himself to the High Court.

    After repeatedly ignoring us and obfuscating, he finally confessed.”

  19. El

    “I don’t think the Senate declining to excercise it’s power to revisit a bill that hasn’t passed the House again would be a valid trigger (if nothing else the potential for mischief is far too high).”

    ___________________________________________

    The Constitution requires that the bill pass the lower house twice.

  20. Maybe Barnaby was a Kiwi mole? Sick of the sheep jokes, they planted him here to undermine our rugby team. Look at the timing – we haven’t won a game at Eden Park for the whole time Joyce has been in office.

  21. MarkDiStef: Independent MP Bob Katter sends out a statement, says if government “act like a bunch of dingoes” he won’t guarantee supply: pic.twitter.com/m6x75SnMBf

  22. If Joyce is a NZ citizen , and hasn’t taken steps to renounce, the 92 ruling is clear. The Court would have to revisit the decision and change it for Joyce to continue.

    That would potentially have bizarre results for Larissa Waters in particular , as her seat could then become a casual vacancy which she’d be eligible to take (and likely would). I get the feeling Ludlam isn’t interested so his seat would be a casual vacancy but I suspect it would still go to Jordan Steele, as it would be a bad look to parachutes someone else in over him.

    The other cases wouldn’t be interesting because they all refused to resign.

  23. I think the question is whether a candidate was elgible to nominate. If their candidacy was invalid the election should be counted as if they never appeared on the ballot at all.

    I suppose the convention is that a by-election should occur. I think this rewards incompetence. If a would-be candidate fails to nominate the election will be held without them. Noone can turn around and say such an election was invalid.

    Candidates can ensure they are eligible. If they are not then they cannot stand. This is fair as between the competing candidates, who should present themselves on equal terms.

  24. briefly
    There are so many problems with that. Not least of which is that almost every lower house seat would return the candidate of the party the majority of the electorate did not want*. That’s a far greater democratic deficit than a by election which has at best the reward of being equal to the result of not being incompetent.

    * 3 corner contests might return someone that would be grudgingly accepted rather than preferred.

  25. Morrison proved to be a liar.

    “There is a tax winter coming under Bill Shorten if he ever becomes Prime Minister,” Mr Morrison told Sky News.

    But in a rare public intervention, the independent office issued a statement that it had nothing to do with modelling released by the Treasurer’s office on Monday morning.

    “References in the media this morning to modelling being released today by the Parliamentary Budget Office are incorrect,” said Parliamentary Budget Officer Jenny Wilkinson, referring to several reports in News Corporation publications.

  26. Someone who has the skills to do it should check whether Andrew Forrest owns shares in Cashless Welfare Card company, Indue. I bet he does.

  27. From the Guardian’s blog is Shorten’s response ti Turnbull re citizenship
    “While the lower house is voting, here is the Shorten reply to Turnbull’s letter, inviting him to nominate any Labor MPs.

    Dear Mal,

    Thanks but no thanks. We are all G.

    Love Bill.”

    Bill Shorten has replied to the Prime Ministers’ letter, agreeing it should be resolved quickly, but declining to refer any Labor MPs to HC. pic.twitter.com/Ha28zA9eRU
    — Henry Belot (@Henry_Belot) August 14, 2017

    That is probably why Pyne was demanding documentation today.

  28. briefly

    I suppose the convention is that a by-election should occur. I think this rewards incompetence. If a would-be candidate fails to nominate the election will be held without them. Noone can turn around and say such an election was invalid.

    ______________________________________-

    But voters on the day would know who was on the ballot paper and could make a decision accordingly. People voting for X as a first preference in the bona fide belief that X was lawfully on the ballot paper would effectively be disenfranchised if X was later ruled ineligible and it went to a recount.

    I think the arrangement of a by-election is a fair one. You don’t punish the voters of an electorate by giving them a representative who did not get a majority of the TPP, even if the person they selected was a careless idiot. Bear in mind that the same rules would apply to those on the left side of the political fence. Labor takes a great deal more care, but no system is 100% foolproof.

  29. Will Barnabygate damage our relations with New Zealand. Surely the Kiwis will not be thrilled with gaining him as one of their wn?

    It is half like Muldoon’s quote about citizens from NZ emigrating to Australia and raising the average IQs of both countries. Barnaby going back might raise only one.

  30. E

    I know.
    However, the existing practice means “ghosts” get two chances…and their supporters also get two chances….it is dodgy

  31. 2016. Tony Windsor: the fraudulent letter endorsing Barnaby should be investigated by AFP.

    The letter was personalised with a final line: “PS: I really worry that anyone other than Barnaby Joyce will just be a lone voice in Canberra and won’t be able to deliver for us locally.”

    It was likely of little surprise to voters inside Mr Marshall’s state electorate of Northern Tablelands that he would be fighting the corner of his federal counterpart in what had been a bitter and hard-fought campaign in New England.

    But, for Mr Marshall, it came as a complete surprise when he opened the letter.

    “When the letter was brought to my attention I was absolutely furious,” he said in a statement first sent to Fairfax Media’s Inverell Times.

    “I did not see, nor endorse, the letter which was sent out to people’s homes, purporting to be from me. If I had wanted to write a letter to residents, it would be from my own hand. I don’t require people to speak for me and am insulted that those in {NSW National Party} head office think I do. I also think it’s a massive slap in the face to the community.”

    “I have requested a full explanation and apology from the federal campaign about how the fraudulent letter came to be delivered to people in Inverell and Glen Innes without my approval.”

    http://amp.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-federal-election-2016-fraudulent-letter-endorsing-barnaby-joyce-should-be-investigated-by-afp-says-tony-windsor-20160706-gpzpa0.html

  32. I assume Tanya Plibersek has renounced her Slovenian citizenship as she would automatically be a Slovenian citizen as both of her parents are Slovenian.

    Where the child is born outside Slovenia the child will be automatically Slovenian if:

    both parents are Slovenian citizens; or
    one parent is Slovenian and the other is stateless; or
    the child does not have any other citizenship.

  33. Since the election of Abbott the Coalition has been a joke of a government. Unfortunately the country isn’t laughing.

    If the members of the LNP really support ME and want to stick it to Barnaby they can confront Turnbull & Co and say that he ( Joyce ) resigns or allows a vote on ME in the parliament or they cross the floor to have him thrown out.

    I know it’s never going to happen but fuck it would be funny to see some payback.

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