Saturday snippets

Detailed polling on same-sex marriage and republicanism, plus state electoral developments in New South Wales and South Australia.

I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.

Further polling:

• The Seven Network reported yesterday that a poll of 700 respondents in Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, which I presume was conducted by ReachTEL, found 69.7% in favour of same-sex marriage and 25.7% opposed.

• The Australian published further numbers from this week’s Newspoll on attitudes towards a republic, finding 51% in favour (steady since the last such exercise in January 2016) and 38% against (up one). Those number become 55% and 34% in the event that Prince Charles becomes king. As The Australian’s report notes, it’s actually the middle-aged cohort of 35 to 49 year olds that has the strongest net positive result, with the younger cohort on 45% and 37% and the older on 54% and 40%.

State matters:

• South Australia’s parliament has settled on a new electoral system for its Legislative Council that will abolish group voting tickets, leaving the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses as the last hold-outs. The new system will resemble that for New South Wales in that voters will be able to number as few or as many boxes above the line as they like. Below-the-line voters will be directed to number at least 12 boxes, but a vote will be formal with as few as six. This compares with a minimum of 15 preferences for below-the-line voters in New South Wales. The Liberals had sought to introduce a Senate-style model in which above-the-line voters were to be directed to number six boxes, but with any number being sufficient for a formal vote. However, Labor’s model eventually prevailed in the upper house.

• Two state by-elections loom in New South Wales, with dates yet to be determined. Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson is retiring after a parliamentary career going back to 1999, creating a vacancy in the rural seat of Cootamundra. While Labor is not competitive in this seat, the last by-election in a Nationals held seat, in Orange in November last year, was won by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the western Sydney seat of Blacktown, former Labor leader John Robertson is retiring, and in this case there seems little reason to doubt that Labor will be seriously challenged. Stephen Bali, the local mayor and a former organiser with the Right faction Australian Workers Union, would appear to be the front-runner for preselection. Antony Green has guides up for both: Blacktown and Cootamundra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,482 comments on “Saturday snippets”

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  5. P1

    Its simple. Like in the US if the majority that is for Yes gets out to vote the CONservatives lose.

    So voter suppression is a big factor for the no case.

  6. I don’t agree with “distaste” being “intense dislike”. Disdain to me means “that’s not for me”. It’s a milder word than that dictionary definition. I think if you start quoting dictionaries you’ve lost the argument anyway.

    I’m not homosexual because I’m not sexually attracted to men. On that I agree with AR. This doesn’t mean I’m homophobic, against homosexuality, hate homosexuals, or wish them harm. It also doesn’t mean that I’m against gay marriage (although several people I’ve spoken to take this position, while not being homophobic). When it comes to choosing a partner, guys aren’t part of my selection set. If you like, when it comes down to it I think homosexual practices are “icky”, but that doesn’t mean I want to ban them or thnk poorly of people who don’t share my way of looking at things. It’s just my personal position: I don’t indulge, or want to. I also don’t judge homosexuals.

    Some DO translate this into homophobia though. Many feel they can’t express this position in public, but in a secret ballot, given the right distractions, they might.

    It does no good saying “We’re gonna win because none of my friends are against it.” Similarly, saying “It’s gonna lose because I met some people yesterday who will vote no,” isn’t proof either.

    I was simply saying that the end result of this postal survey is not a foregone conclusion, that there really is a fair amount of masked homophobia out there and that, if harnessed in a manner that allows homophobia to be expressed in other terms, the “No” vote could be surprisingly higher than many think it will be.

    The chorus of shout-downs, trying to make out that anyone who even doubts the concept of gay marriage, or that – if they don’t doubt it themselves that others might – is “hompphobia” or some kind of betrayal is what a several of the people I spoken toin the last few days really hate. They fell that they are being pushed into something without a choice: political correctness.

    Argue the case by all means, but don;t try to make out that someone who expresses less than 100% solidarity with the anticipated result being a foregone conclusion is a latent homophobe.

  9. zoomster @ #142 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 10:39 am

    I suggested that no one had disputed the points you quoted from the crikey article. You said Kevin Bonham had.

    If you can’t follow a simple thread for more than two comments, I can’t help you.

    ???

    I’m really lost here. You suggested that no one had disputed the points I quoted, so I demonstrated that you were incorrect.

  10. I think if you start quoting dictionaries you’ve lost the argument anyway.

    A post truth justification of a position if ever I heard one.

  11. If you start quoting dictionaries you are making sure all are on the same page about a definition.

    That is in no way losing an argument.

    Of course you may think dictionaries like science are things of the “elite” and thus to be discredited.

  13. It seems that we are descending into a descriptionist argument…Bushfire Bill declaring whatever the hell his feelpinion is, by way of disputing the precriptionist meaning of words via an authoritative text, ie the dictionary. Pretty weak foundation to build an argument on, imho.

  14. ‘fess

    Personally when I think about gay rights the issue of gay sex never factors. I’m not attracted to other women, therefore why would I even think of the sex angle when arguing for marriage equality?

    Yep. That’s it for me also.

  16. Player One @ #161 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 10:50 am

    C@tmomma @ #139 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 10:38 am

    I hope you aren’t saying that as a homophobe.

    Wow. I honestly have no idea how you could come to a conclusion like that.

    Because, ItzaDream has told us he is homosexual and when he said that words failed him you replied with, ‘Clouds. Silver Lining’. Do you get it now? The question was an entirely valid one to ask.

    Why? Do we have to treat homosexuals differently than other people?

    Okay, so taking that as your position, explain why you felt compelled to say that?

  21. BB

    I think there’s quite a difference between the ordinary meaning of the word ‘distaste’ and having no interest at all in the practice i.e. ‘doesn’t float my boat’.

  22. The get out the vote is not good news for the NO campaign.

    Short and long term. A reminder.

    AusElectoralCom: Approx 68,000 enrolment transactions received yesterday compared to an average daily intake of 4,000. Majority address updates #auspol

    Majority votes the polls tell us the results.

    The bigots lose.

  23. Just a little story regarding a family living in my mother in law’s neighbour hood.

    Son came out years ago to his parents. Was kicked out of home. Left and travelled the world and lived his life alienated by his family. His father has passed away and now this son has come back to look after his ageing mother.
    The regrets hurt and heartbreak this family endured
    For what?

    Thank goodness we have progressed.
    All this talk of it being icky is frankly offensive and stupid. If your mind is still stuck in homophobic mode, it is all on you

  28. To not want something is not the same as disdaining.

    I personally hate the taste/texture of custard. But I make it for members of my family who like it.

    I don’t disdain custard, it is just not my to my personal liking.

    Disdain is a negative.

    Most people I know, have a neutral ‘live and let live’ attitude to sexuality.

    But anti-gay people, those who disdain homosexuality, choose to attempt to define a person’s whole life by their sexuality.

    We see this is the fear that a homosexual male teacher at an all boy’s school will influence the sexuality of the students. (Or fem/girls). This is preposterous, of course, since the argument then suggests all kids are vulnerable to the sexual practices of their teachers … a subject about which said students likely have very little real knowledge of.

    People like Abbott and Shelton strike me as being so afraid of their own sexuality vulnerability that they must project their ‘inner demons’ outward into a society in an attempt to control others so they cannot ‘influence’ them.

  29. There are several LGB people in my wider family. We have never talked about the kinds of sex they have…but I sure hope they have good sex and plenty of it.

  31. Gt – Pic of Abbott.

    A classic hark back to 1950’s Hollywood movie character of a ‘rebel’ (the big ‘beef’ could have been being not able to ride his motorbike on footpaths).

    Abbott is lost in the 50’s.

  33. samanthamaiden: . @Birmo has rejected reports cabinet will stay out of same sex marriage fray will be doing “all I can” to campaign for change @SkyNewsAust twitter.com/birmo/status/8…

    Birmo: Urgent – ensure your say is heard in #marriageequaility plebiscite – enrol or update your enrolment today at aec.gov.au

  34. guytaur
    samanthamaiden: . @Birmo has rejected reports cabinet will stay out of same sex marriage fray will be doing “all I can” to campaign for change

    A Lib who can see that the best place to be is on the winning side.

  38. guytaur @ #183 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 11:13 am

    Birmo: Urgent – ensure your say is heard in #marriageequaility plebiscite – enrol or update your enrolment today at aec.gov.au

    Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the ‘Yes’ campaign. I’ll believe they’re campaigning for change when they start saying “Vote Yes” instead of just “Vote”.

  41. “Redheads are the most awesome and sexy of the natural hair colors. ”

    The only rational response to that is…yes.

    Now, add an Irish accent……..and we are talking boat ripped of moorings and carried away on incoming tide.

  42. I don’t think the government said that cabinet ministers would not campaign at all.

    What was said was there would be no general Australia wide campaign and that government cabinet members would campaign with-in their electorates.

    An anti-Abbott message. He’ll be advocating ‘no’ as much as possible and as widely as possible.

  43. Does anyone think that the Libs may be starting to realize that that whatever happens with the postal pleb, a surge in enrollments is going to hurt them?? I mean look at the numbers for 18 -34 demographic in the bar chart William put up for this post. Mt feelpinion is that a lot of the enrollment / details update surge is coming from that age group.

    The Libs must be having some OMG what have we done shit going on.

  44. Ctari

    While not living in Warringah (next door in Mackellar) my facebook feed has constant messages and posts about enrolling to vote and voting for yes. Ive seen maybe one or two posts that are against ssm. Also the lib member for Mackellar is in favour, even if he an eejit. Wont be likely to see him and Abbott together campaigning.

  46. Ides of March @ #193 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 11:33 am

    Ctari

    While not living in Warringah (next door in Mackellar) my facebook feed has constant messages and posts about enrolling to vote and voting for yes. Ive seen maybe one or two posts that are against ssm. Also the lib member for Mackellar is in favour, even if he an eejit. Wont be likely to see him and Abbott together campaigning.

    Don’t forget the old hag former member for Mackellar! She’s just as bad!

  48. JoshButler: Very few of my friends ever post anything political on Facebook but my feed’s been SWAMPED in recent days with plebiscite & enrolment stuff
    JoshButler: Two dozen Aussie friends living/travelling overseas are madly trying to work out how they can update their enrolment to vote
    JoshButler: People I would normally call “incredibly politically switched-off to the point of ignorance” are getting amped up, posting info advisorie
    sJoshButler: That AEC “check your enrolment” link has been posted so often, it’s coming up in that grouping of “[x amount] of your friends posted a link”

  49. Checking enrollment … just done.

    On actual voting on ‘real elections’ on the day by turning up at your local polling place —

    About 4 years ago I applied for a one off postal vote for an upcoming election due to health problems at the time.

    The response from the electoral office was that from then on I would always be forwarded the required papers to lodge a postal vote.

    I’d kept a copy of the completed application form and checked it to see if I’d not completed it correctly. It was clearly completed as a one off.

    Although the official policy is to turn up and vote on the day, this and the effort the AEC makes to make voters aware that no question asked pre-poll voting is widely available in populated areas it is obvious to me that the more voters who pre-poll the better it is for them.

  50. BB

    That was really one of the worst thought out pieces that you have written. I get what you are trying to say – that the latent discomfort and prejudices of some people who are intimidated from expressing them openly may emerge in the privacy of the ‘ballot box’ and, therefore, victory in this postal thingy should not be taken for granted. Indeed, that was one of the reasons that so many ME supporters vigorously opposed to a real plebiscite where people were going to be REQUIRED to express an opinion.

    But I really wonder about who the people are that you have been talking to. More particularly, whether they are a broad cross-section, especially age-wise, or people like us – white, aging baby boomers.

    The reason why I ask this is because there is no issue in Australia today where there is a clearer emotional difference between the young and the old than the issue of ME. The lightbulb moment for me about this difference was a few years ago when, I think, Janet Albrechtson appeared on QandA or the Drum and recounted her own amazement in how her own teenage children just didn’t see any issue.

    Now, I don’t think there is a time since the Vietnam War where the young have felt more disenfranchised and ill-treated by the political class than now. Home affordability is historically low and they are told to have less smashed avocado. The cost of getting a post school education is rising astronomically at the hands of those who had a free education. Work is becoming very hard to get and at wages that are laughably low for highly educated young people. And now old uptight religious fuddy-duddies are getting their knickers in a twist over whether gays should be allowed to marry – of all things.

    Abbott is correct in that this postal thingy is an opportunity to call out the Hansonites and their fellow travellers to make a statement about everything they don’t like or discomforts them in the modern world.

    But Bill Shorten and an increasing host of others are seeing this as an opportunity to give the generation that has betrayed the young a stab in the eye on what should not even be a debatable issue. Looking at some of the stuff posted below, you get the sense of this happening. That cafe offering free coffee for using their wifi to check AEC enrolment, for example.

    It’s a battle that is yet to be fought and, I hope, won’t need to be if the High Court does what I expect it to. But it’s not a foregone conclusion that only the evil angels amongst us will use the opportunity to express their deep feelings.

    And, even if it doesn’t get up, the process itself is so badly compromised that Labor, at least, will just ignore the result if we have to wait for a Labor election victory to finally see ME become a reality.

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