YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. Go for the bird in the hand, even if it’s a bit scrawny and dirty.

    Also while you’re holding the bird in your hand it’s pecking your face off.

  2. Puff.. I still miss our fox terrier. From like 20 years ago.
    Always the wagging tail.. Always.. And when he was dying the tail kept wagging, just a little.. till it was just the tip wagging..

  3. cud chewer
    briefly, I’ll be so happy if the HC stops it.

    The Liberals will be in chaos

    They will be shown to be totally ineffectual as well as deceptive…..and probably even more divided than ever. Meanwhile, the voters will have been reminded of exactly why they were so sickened by Abbott.

  4. If enough people boycott the Yes vote, it might not get up which would reduce the chance of it being voted for in parliament. Then the No people will say a vote in parliament for Yes would be contrary to the wishes of the voters.
    A strong Yes vote would put the issue to bed with a lot more harmony than a boycott.
    I don’t agree with the postal plebiscite at all but half a loaf of bread is better than no bread.

  5. Puff

    I knew you’d make me guffaw about husbands.

    What I found about husbands, was that you had to let them think they came up with an idea. Petals.

    And they didn’t care about underwear; least of all if it was washed. Or whether they were guilty of the stains or not.

    And if you don’t follow the sport of said husband, no-fault divorce. Thanks Whitlam.

  6. Player1:
    “That’s one reason a boycott sends a real message. A message about how disgusted we are when a government tries to avoid making decisions.” A powerful argument but the Government will ignore the message. The “moderates” won’t put their heads above the parapet again.

    “Mal is ashes and dust anyway” Agree. His loss of authority is clear to all who follow politics.

    “and Shorten will be the next PM.” Or Peter Dutton. A Labor victory in 2019 is far from a sure thing. Howard looked gone for all money in early 2001.

    “So you can send a message that future governments cannot fail to understand – i.e. we elect them to make decisions, not just take credit for the easy stuff and punt the hard stuff to the next parliament.” The dominant Far Right of the Liberals and the Nationals will be impervious to the message and their media allies will support them. The rest of the media will bevonto the next big thing.

  7. cud chewer @ #1595 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 7:53 pm

    kezza

    I’ll be replying to the survey. What I would like is for the Australian Marriage Equality people to put up on their website an objection letter to object to the entire process, so that you can print it out and slip it into the reply envelope along with the official form. That form of protest would get noticed and it the number of such objections might even get counted.

    That’s a good idea. I prefer that to defacing the ballot, which could possibly mean a vote not counted.

  8. So, we are wasting $120 million on a voluntary non-
    binding plebiscite in order to show that Turnbull has the political testicles of a gnat and the morals of an alley cat?
    I could have told you that for free.

  9. The HC challenge may know this postal pleb on the head? How does it go if you are on the roll, entitled to vote, and you never get a ballot paper. Your living OS and they decide its too hard?? Could you then challenge the result, in court as your were disenfranchised??

    Meanwhile, Shorten will be out campaigning for a yes vote. Take note Malcolm…campaigning…raising his public profile on an issue with majority support….while you hide under the fwarking doona.

    And Tony will be out there campaigning and doing photo op’s with John Howard at the same time.

    Meme may end up…Where’s Malcolm??

  10. Steve, if people boycott we will never know how many boycotted (other than some kind of 3rd party survey). If people express their contempt for the process by including a protest note, that gets more attention and is potentially countable.

  11. Diogenes

    The HC knocking it back would be an excellent result.
    ***************************************
    Couldn’t agree more.

  12. Everyone I know, which is admittedly not very many out of 25 million, will vote YES for ME.

    And that’s from various religions, and no religions, and secular beliefs.

    I really think YES will get up, but it won’t if people like Michael Kirby say NO.

    What to do?

  13. I think Shorten was on to something today in attacking Turnbull. If Turnbull doesn’t take a stand against hate speech during this survey, it will just reflect badly on him.

  14. Having learned from the horrendous costs of the Greens hundred percenters’ destruction of the Malaysian Solution and of the ETS, I will be voting yes.
    Imperfections can be ironed out later on.

  15. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html
    Electoral Process, But Not As We Know It: Postal Plebiscite V2
    My comments on the postal plebiscite, with some great stuff by Michael Maley in comments for those who haven’t already seen it.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/emrs-white-lead-is-very-big-problem-for.html
    EMRS: White Lead Is A Big Problem For Liberals
    A new Tasmanian statewide poll has the major parties almost level and with the new Opposition Leader ahead as preferred premier over Will Hodgman by a seems-too-good-to-be-true eleven points.

  16. If enough people boycott the Yes vote, it might not get up which would reduce the chance of it being voted for in parliament. Then the No people will say a vote in parliament for Yes would be contrary to the wishes of the voters.
    A strong Yes vote would put the issue to bed with a lot more harmony than a boycott.
    I don’t agree with the postal plebiscite at all but half a loaf of bread is better than no bread.

    This precisely why I’m voting yes. Besides, what message does boycotting the plebiscite send to the govt other than that you couldn’t be bothered to vote on the issue of SSM?

  17. “Besides, what message does boycotting the plebiscite send to the govt other than that you couldn’t be bothered to vote on the issue of SSM?”
    Exactly. How is anyone to tell if you boycotted due to a principled stand against the plebiscite as opposed to not caring enough to vote one way or the other?

  18. imacca @ 8:13PM:

    This fake plebiscite is being implemented as a pretend survey. Someone here linked Scott (vituperative portmanteau)’s directive to the ABS earlier today. The normal rules and protections for a real vote run by the AEC don’t apply. The most likely grounds for rejection by the High Court would be that the Government does not have Parliamentary authority to spend $122 million on this farce, but that depends upon what the black letters of the law actually says.

  19. cud + puff

    We have an elderly foxy who the kids (teens now) just luuurve so dreading the day she goes. I’ve lived through quite a few dogs but the kids will be devastated.

    Here’s a story of one.

    I was a kid living in Tehran in the 70’s when mom cracked the shits to leave so we all packed up and left and dad had to deal with the dog Bindi. Iranians in general weren’t inclined to be friendly towards dogs so as there was none to take her on dad took her up into the hills behind the city and he gave her an OD of sleeping tablets. Anyhow, after sitting with her for 2-3 hours he had to go off and do other moving stuff and when he returned the dog had got up and gone. I often think of her wandering the highlands, free.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #1625 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:21 pm

    kezza2 @ #1619 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:18 pm

    Everyone I know, which is admittedly not very many out of 25 million, will vote YES for ME.

    And that’s from various religions, and no religions, and secular beliefs.

    I really think YES will get up, but it won’t if people like Michael Kirby say NO.

    What to do?

    Channel Bette Davis!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPPJdOGshUM

    Might have satisfied your fantasies, GG, did nothing for me. But thanks for the experience.

    PS. If you thought for a moment, I would fantasise about marriage, you were mistaken. I hope yours has been as fulfilling as Bette’s.

  21. Steve777 @ #1629 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:28 pm

    imacca @ 8:13PM:

    This fake plebiscite is being implemented as a pretend survey. Someone here linked Scott (vituperative portmanteau)’s directive to the ABS earlier today. The normal rules and protections for a real vote run by the AEC don’t apply. The most likely grounds for rejection by the High Court would be that the Government does not have Parliamentary authority to spend $122 million on this farce, but that depends upon what the black letters of the law actually says.

    The data bases for participants might also be an issue.

  22. confessions the Liberals will use any excuse not to have a free vote. If the result (in terms of actual yes/no percentage of actual respondents, forget about representative sampling) is a marginal yes and the turnout was largely unaffected by a boycott, they will still seek to delay and frustrate a vote, including with threats to their own.

    If there is a substantial boycott the odds are very high the result in raw percentages will be no. This will simply make it easier for the Libs to both do nothing and to not suffer the internal brawling consequences.

  23. Diogenes @ #1607 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:07 pm

    If enough people boycott the Yes vote, it might not get up which would reduce the chance of it being voted for in parliament. Then the No people will say a vote in parliament for Yes would be contrary to the wishes of the voters.
    A strong Yes vote would put the issue to bed with a lot more harmony than a boycott.
    I don’t agree with the postal plebiscite at all but half a loaf of bread is better than no bread.

    Just vote ‘Yes’, and then say you boycotted.

    I know I’ll be boycotting. 😈

  24. kezza2 @ #1631 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1625 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:21 pm

    kezza2 @ #1619 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:18 pm

    Everyone I know, which is admittedly not very many out of 25 million, will vote YES for ME.

    And that’s from various religions, and no religions, and secular beliefs.

    I really think YES will get up, but it won’t if people like Michael Kirby say NO.

    What to do?

    Channel Bette Davis!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPPJdOGshUM

    Might have satisfied your fantasies, GG, did nothing for me. But thanks for the experience.

    PS. If you thought for a moment, I would fantasise about marriage, you were mistaken. I hope yours has been as fulfilling as Bette’s.

    I was actually referring to to the famous line “fasten your seat belt, it’s going to be a bumpy ride” line.

    Sorry if I confused you.

    Cheers

  25. ar

    See my earlier comment. There are other means to protest the illegitimacy of the process. Including slipping a protest page into the return envelope.

  26. My article covers the boycott idea but for anyone whose computer disintegrates if they click on a link, the only people who should be boycotting (apart from No supporters, all of whom should get out of other people’s lives) are those who are directly affected and just feel absolutely that they cannot vote. And a lot of those who are saying that now may well change their minds by the day (assuming the thing isn’t struck out by then.)

    The ALP is not boycotting so any boycott will not be large enough to knock a significant dent in the turnout and will only benefit the No vote.

    People should keep an eye out for concern-trolls, I’m sure there’ll be a few of those here. If someone doesn’t have any personal stake in the issue but is loudly calling for a boycott there’s a 99% chance they crawled out from under that sort of rock and a 1% chance they are just Bernard Keane being even more simplistic and clueless than usual.

  27. 1. Go the HC! The issue of the assault this is on our parliamentary democracy is actually larger than SSM.
    2. Failing that though, Go Bill! Once again Shorten and Labor have nailed their colours to the mast. No dissembling to keep the SDA types sweet. The contrast to the eunuch Trumble couldn’t be more stark.
    3. So it then becomes Shorten v Abbott. Good. Abbott will fortify a small nasty cohort, but his days of conning the masses are over. Shorten has set out to campaign, and campaigning is something he’s rather good at. More of today’s passion won’t hurt his estimation in the electorate at all.
    4. Trumble yet again demonstrates his irrelevance. Any old sock can be turned into a sock puppet for the lunar right. Trumble brings no special skills to that job either. He’ll realise too late that he’s left the field open for all his rivals and complain about how no one sees what a strong leader tm he is. But he’s fucked. The anti crowd will despise him all the more any time he opens his mouth in support of SSM and cleave to Abbott or J Edgar. The pro crowd will be listening to Shorten putting the case forcefully and ignoring Captain Castrato on the few occasions he tries to get noticed.

  28. GG: I was actually referring to to the famous line “fasten your seat belt, it’s going to be a bumpy ride” line.

    Sorry if I confused you.
    —-

    Oh, you did, And so typical of you. To pretend one thing, while meting out another.

    I have a little dungeon where I like to keep people who think they’re onto something because they remember lines from movies of bygone days. As if they’re important.

  29. cud:

    If the yes vote wins it gives validation to the likes of Smith, Wilson etc to cross the floor and sit with the ALP. Furthermore if Tasmanians can return a yes vote in that state Lambie has said outright she would honour the outcome and support SSM in the Senate.

    I just can’t see any point in boycotting the plebiscite, esp if you are in favour of legal SSM in this country.

  30. mimhoff @ #1640 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:34 pm

    Whose rights should we vote on next?

    Ali Moore interviewed Kirby this arvo on her programme in melbourne. He said he’d not made up his opinion on whether to participate in the pleberefernddapoll (my word). Although he said his 50 year partner had said no.

    But, he also referred to Jews actively participating / co operating with the Nazis on legislation that restricted Jews in the 1930s.

  31. kezza2 @ #1647 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:39 pm

    GG: I was actually referring to to the famous line “fasten your seat belt, it’s going to be a bumpy ride” line.

    Sorry if I confused you.
    —-

    Oh, you did, And so typical of you. To pretend one thing, while meting out another.

    I have a little dungeon where I like to keep people who think they’re onto something because they remember lines from movies of bygone days. As if they’re important.

    So do I!

  32. kezza2 @ #1635 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 8:31 pm

    But, why?

    Do explain your reasons.

    For goodness sake, the government has told you they do not intend to be bound by the outcome of any such survey. So voting yes or no are both utterly futile, except to make you feel good. And ex-justice Kirby has explained very clearly why we should not support governments who engage with this type of nonsense.

    The only thing that will have any effect at all is a boycott.

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