YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. [ratsak
    …

    But come on wouldn’t you love to see a half senate only election in Apr 19 whilst Trumble trembles in his room trying to squeeze every last minute out of his term praying for General Wenck, The Tampa, Bin Laden or something to come along and save him?]

    I can’t take pleasure in others suffering no mater how deserved and prolonging that suffering is unnecessary. 🙂

  2. The legal challenge to stop the postal ballot on same sex marriage will be formally lodged shortly after 2pm today.

    The Member for Denison, Independent MP Andrew Wilkie, will lodge the challenge along with PFLAG’s Shelley Argent and gay mother Felicity Marlowe.

    There will be media conference shortly after it’s lodged so we will bring you more updates from that.

    Abc live blog

  3. I can’t take pleasure in others suffering no mater how deserved and prolonging that suffering is unnecessary.

    Don’t worry, I can take pleasure in Turnbull’s suffering for both of us 😉

  5. @ VE, you’ve done well to summarise all that.

    Seems it’s very likely we’re going to the polls in the latter half of 2018.

    A long election campaign is extremely improbable as it would be a significant advantage for Labor and the progressives, whose field campaigns are vastly superior to that of the L/NP.

  7. @ Victoria – good point, that then makes August, September or first half October 2017 much more likely than late October or November

  8. Roger Miller

    ABC can provide balance by asking everyone they interview “how will this change affect you personally” and then jump on them every time they try to shift to safe schools, or think of the children, or political correctness.

    If only…

  9. Jane Norman‏Verified account @janeenorman · 9m9 minutes ago

    ABC journos haven’t been “gagged”. They’ve been reminded that same-sex marriage is a divisive issue and that journos must remain impartial.

  10. Fuller transcript of the ABC letter.
    From the Guardian blog.

    [ABC News Editorial Policy Manager Mark Maley has reportedly written to staff to remind them to remain impartial in the same sex marriage debate, the Oz reports.

    Please remember that approximately 40% of the population opposes the change and more importantly that the ABC does not have a position on the issue,.

    It is very important that we are impartial and that all perspectives are given a fair hearing and treated with respect by the ABC.

    In this charged environment I would also urge everyone to be circumspect on social media — advocating for one side or the other will make it more difficult for the ABC to be seen as impartial. The more high-profile you are the more important discretion is.

    It comes after conservative and assistant multicultural affairs minister Zed Seselja accused the ABC of basically running the yes case on Sky this morning.

    We’ve seen a lot of censorship of those arguing against change in the Marriage Act, Media Watch has commented that even the ABC, who are tasked with being fair in their charter, haven’t actually been fair on this issue and haven’t equally given both sides an airing.

    Those arguing against change do have a lot of things stacked against them, virtually every media outlet is campaigning for change, the ABC has effectively been campaigning for change and there is a lot of corporate money that we’ve seen.

    I suspect we will see the ‘yes’ case out spend the ‘no’ case by probably ten to one but that doesn’t mean the Australian people won’t still make a decision that they don’t want to see the Marriage Act changed.]

  11. DebbieSpillane‏ @DebSpillane · 9m9 minutes ago

    Another reason to be grateful I don’t work there anymore. The ABC has been bullied out of being what it once was.

  12. Voice Endeavour @ #1303 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:58 pm

    I can’t take pleasure in others suffering no mater how deserved and prolonging that suffering is unnecessary.

    Don’t worry, I can take pleasure in Turnbull’s suffering for both of us 😉

    I know I’m presuming far too much, but damn I’m going to savour watching the prick chuck the mother of all undignified tantrums when he finally gets axed. We’ve seen what a self obsessed whiny little bitch he was when he won the last election. When he goes it’s going to symphonic!

  15. Luke Foley‏Verified account @Luke_FoleyNSW · 16m16 minutes ago

    Labor said – build the new trains in NSW to create jobs
    @GladysB Govt was determined to buy them from overseas
    Now they don’t fit the tracks

  16. Hardly shocking to anyone on PB I guess, but all the reputable pollsters lining up to take a kick.

    Australia’s leading pollsters have rubbished the postal vote approach, describing it as a “complete waste of money” and the “worst type of research, apart from robopolls”.

    They say if the aim was working out what Australians think on the issue, a scientifically sampled poll would be more accurate and could be done for a fraction of the cost.

    Former Fairfax pollster John Stirton​ says postal surveys “went out with the dinosaurs” because they were both expensive and difficult to get an accurate reading of what people thought.

    Mr Stirton, who now works as a research consultant, said a high quality survey of 2000 people (using live landline and mobile interviews, supplemented with online polling for tricky-to-reach demographics) would cost around $20,000.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/worst-type-of-research-you-can-do-apart-from-robopolls-pollsters-rubbish-postal-vote-20170809-gxsboc.html

  17. Weatherill just gets worse. He now says its a corruption of democracy to protest against the will of his government. Pathetic.

    “The same daily newspaper that’s collecting $20,000 a throw when the banks put their full page ads in — it is a corruption of democracy the way in which this bank thinks it can overbear the will of a democratically elected government to do something which we are entitled to do,” Mr Weatherill told FIVEaa Radio.

    “The extent that the mainstream media are co-operating with this; it represents a subversion of our democracy.”

  19. The debate about possible election dates highlights the problem that is being created by States going to fixed terms.

    In the past a State would factor in a possible federal election when deciding to go to the polls.

    Now with many State election dates set long in advance it’s the federal Government that has to factor this into their timing considerations.

  27. Diogenes – Why isn’t is a corruption of democracy when major corporations run big advertising campaigns against elected governments? I would have thought it was a perfect example.

  28. Voice Endeavour @ #1298 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:52 pm

    To elaborate on the 13 months thing, which I had thought was fairly uncontroversial.

    Turnbull will almost certainly run a simultaneous HoR + half senate election. He could run a DD sooner, but probably won’t. He could run a senate only election and then delay the HoR, but I doubt he will, as people who know these things tell me you get an anti government backlash for half senate only elections.

    This link here explains when a simultaneous election could be. Namely 4/08/2018 through 18/05/2019.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/AustralianElectionsTimetable

    The 18/05 date can only be reached by having parliament expire at 12/03/2019, with the longest possible election campaign. I consider it very unlikely that the Libs will want a long election campaign. Last time, they only got worse as the campaign dragged on. Therefore, the latest date I give any credence to would be about 3 weeks earlier, lets say 27/04/2019.

    But the NSW state election is 23/3/2017. This means that there would be Federal campaigning during the last 11 days of the election campaign for the largest state, which is also I believe the only election the Liberals would win if current polling bore out (don’t quote me, could be wrong). They will not sabotage the NSW election.

    So to give the NSW Libs clear air, the Federal vote would have to be brought forward.

    December and Jan are writeoffs for election campaigns. Is there enough room in Feb to run the Federal election campaign and the vote, and have it be forgotten in time for the NSW state election? Possible, but it would be a tight squeeze.

    So assuming you determine that a Feb 24 or March 3, 2018 election isn’t feasible, we are left with most of August, all of September, October or November 2018. Ideally avoid late November as silly season is starting. So somewhere between 12-14.5 months away. I presented this as 13, although would be happy to edit my post to say 14 if anyone has a strong opinion – the polls still predicted correctly 3 of the last 4 elections using the polls at any 12-14.5 months out.

    While the recent history is to run the HOR and Half senate elections at the same time, Turnbull may well choose the half Senate election only option in mid 2018 whcih gives him more flexibilty re the HOR election timing.

    Turnbull can justify it on the grounds that it’s the senate that is preventing his Government from implementing it’s agenda. So, it’s right that they should face the people. Turnbull’s government changed the timing of the Budget speech last year to facilitate the July election. So, adherence to accepted practice is not overly important to him. Some might argue the cost. but, you can see by the $120mill price tag for the SSM PP, that spending public money for dubious causes does not concern this PM.

    The half-Senate election might clean up a few of the Independents because of the lower vote threshold to win a Senate seat which is also an incentive.

    It might also serve to allow the voters to vent against the Government without turfing them.

  29. Jaegar

    Commonwealth Games? Footy finals?

    I don’t think these things matter much now that pre-polling seems to be much encouraged although officially it isn’t.

  31. Diogenes – Why isn’t is a corruption of democracy when major corporations run big advertising campaigns against elected governments? I would have thought it was a perfect example.

    Because The Advertiser says so.

  33. That is a valid point by GG on the possibility of a half senate election – for a politics tragic it is like a ’70 revival.

    Given Turnbull’s decision making process, to maximise his time in the chair you cannot rule it out.

  36. CTar1

    Over planted?

    No, these are the original trees on the block and I have created a garden around them.
    Neighbours have altered the water table and in some cases that is rotting their roots. Neighbouring blocks have also been cleared so that trees originally with a forest are now exposed.

    Problem for me is, when they fall, they cut across younger trees I have planted. Today I’ve lost half a 12metre weeping silver lime. I daren’t go closer to look as the wind is very strong.

  37. Sam Dastiary wants to know why if it’s an informal plebiscite why aren’t 16 and 17 YOs being included in the vote …

    Gee, Sam, how about because they are not registered to vote?

  40. Today’s Crikey (BK) :

    The argument that this is an election commitment is irrelevant — and governments routinely break election promises without apology. It is the idea of “giving voters a say” that is the crux of the issue. The core of what the government is doing — whether via junk mail or a fully fledged compulsory vote — is that basic rights are a gift from the majority of the electorate to a minority, that the decision to remove an impediment to enjoying basic rights is one that should be made by the majority of voters, nearly all of whom have their basic rights intact.

    Participation in this vote legitimises the idea that human rights have no independent existence, that they are not innate to individuals but are simply a present to be bestowed by the electorate — and thus could be withdrawn from the electorate.

    { }

    It is an intentional display of raw majoritarian power over the basic rights of a minority, the core message of which is that the latter have no innate rights, but only rights bestowed at the whim of the majority. There can be no ethical participation in such an exercise, unless you believe that rights are mere presents to be handed out only when we feel like it

  41. VE

    Even for a survey to have some validity you need to know the number of the pool surveyed and that individuals only respond once.

  42. CTar1
    “Gee, Sam, how about because they are not registered to vote?”

    Though the AEC isn’t handling the plebiscite – it’s the ABS. So all bets are off regarding who is ‘eligible’ to vote.

  43. CTar1
    Sam Dastiary wants to know why if it’s an informal plebiscite why aren’t 16 and 17 YOs being included in the vote …

    Gee, Sam, how about because they are not registered to vote?

    He has a good point. This plebiscite is not a plebiscite. It is a half-assed opinion poll.

  45. kakuru

    CTar1
    “Gee, Sam, how about because they are not registered to vote?”

    Though the AEC isn’t handling the plebiscite – it’s the ABS. So all bets are off regarding who is ‘eligible’ to vote.
    —————————–

    Turnbull just said EVERY AUSTRALIAN will have a chance to have their say – not just voters. So Dastyari has a good point – also Penny Wong’s children.

  46. “Though the AEC isn’t handling the plebiscite – it’s the ABS. So all bets are off regarding who is ‘eligible’ to vote.”

    It’ll be a good test of the accuracy of the Census data.

  48. ItzaDream @ #1339 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 2:05 pm

    Today’s Crikey (BK) :

    It is the idea of “giving voters a say” that is the crux of the issue.

    I take issue with that assessment, because they’re not even doing that much. To “give voters a say” the result would have to be binding on Parliament (or else backed by legislation so that it automatically becomes law with no further action from Parliament). And neither Turnbull nor Abbott will touch that one with a 10′ pole.

    Pretending to care what voters think and then letting MP’s ignore it and vote however they feel like is nothing at all like giving voters a say.

  49. One other way to frame the plebiscite /opinion poll debate is the proposition that only those who aren’t married should vote.

  50. Jaeger @ #1346 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 2:14 pm

    “Though the AEC isn’t handling the plebiscite – it’s the ABS. So all bets are off regarding who is ‘eligible’ to vote.”

    It’ll be a good test of the accuracy of the Census data.

    Think of how many people have died, become citizens or reached voting age in the past year. They can’t possibly use the census data as the basis for this clusterfuck of a spam mailout.

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