The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.
Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.
With the apparent rehabilitation of Sam Dastyari at full steam, has Team ALP checked to see whether he has dual citizenship? There’s a suggestion, isn’t there, that he might have Chinese citizenship?…
Darc @ #1251 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:53 am
Yes.
No.
[Player One
…
Actually, I don’t care much about ME as an issue, and am a bit annoyed that so much time and effort is being wasted on it. I’d rather discuss something more important, like energy policy! : )]
Yes, I suppose your right.
For you they two separate issues,
The ABS is about a fear of them infringing your Rights in how they handle your personal information,
while,
on ME you wish to discount other peoples’ Right to equality.
Player One @ #1252 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:54 am
Sam spent $25k of his own money to ensure he was eligible to stand for Parliament.
Apologies if this particular article has already been linked:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/a-hurt-michael-kirby-implores-his-old-friend-malcolm-turnbull-to-show-leadership-on-gay-marriage-20170809-gxsfcf.html
Droll GG, very droll. Not droll P1. Mate of yours?
Darc @ #1256 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:01 pm
I’m a living droll!
Barney in Go Dau @ #1253 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:56 am
No, I worry about other people’s rights on the ABS issue as well as my own. And on ME, I am willing to abide by the properly canvassed decision of the people and/or their parliament. Aren’t you?
[Greensborough Growler
…
Next election is not due till late 2019 which is just over two years from now.]
The current Senate term is dated as starting 1/7/2016 so the next election needs to be before this to keep both Houses together.
The Reps could hold out to the time you say but that would require a separate half Senate to be held.
To keep both Houses together an election could be called anytime from the second half of next year.
Darc @ #1256 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:01 pm
If you didn’t want the answers, why ask the questions?
PrettyOne
“And on ME, I am willing to abide by the properly canvassed decision of the people and/or their parliament. Aren’t you?”
————————————————————-
This is not a matter that should ever go to some kind of questionnaire or plebiscite. Ever. It is the job of Parliament to make decisions and, at the moment, the majority of them are refusing to do their job.
[Player One
Barney in Go Dau @ #1253 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:56 am
…
And on ME, I am willing to abide by the properly canvassed decision of the people and/or their parliament. Aren’t you?]
Definitely not.
That’s something you fail to appreciate anything less than equality is not equality and so the fight for equality will continue.
Another piece of dissembling from P1.
What could possibly constitute ‘properly canvassed’ about the current proposal, unless you are viewing it through Tony Abbott’s eyes?
And what TPOF said.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1259 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:05 pm
I did say due. VE’s assertion of 13 month is his speculation. The closer you are to an election, the more accurate the polls.
I’d also point out that Andrew Leigh did his thesis on poll outcomes versus election results and I was simply using the conclusion he drew .
P1, forgive me, please. In future I will refrain from use of the rhetorical question and will not attempt humour. Hopeless at both. Mate of yours?
Let’s face it, the vast majority of those who vote no will be homophopes who are too gutless to actually admit it, hence the fee speech and political correctness bullshit.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1262 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:11 pm
Of course. If parliament doesn’t vote for SSM this time around then you are free to continue canvassing, just as you are on any other issue. I don’t have a problem with any of that.
Or even free speech….
Seems an incredibly sensible idea that could be rolled out into other areas of litigation.
Don’t like its chances of getting through the Reps however.
[Labor bill to protect small business against big business passes senate
The Senate today passed Labor’s Competition and Consumer Legislation Amendment (Small Business Access to Justice) Bill 2017 which would help small businesses take cases of anti-competitive behaviour to court.
At the moment, small businesses are less likely to take up private litigation against anti-competitive behaviour because big businesses of the the risk of bankruptcy from legal fees.
The bill would allow a small business to request a ‘no adverse costs order’ early in a court case. If the judge decides that the case is in the public interest, the small business will not have the risk of paying the other side’s costs if they lose.
But it has only passed the senate and will now go to the house where we can assume the Coalition will vote it down.
Labor shadow assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh called on the prime minister to back the little guy when the bill comes down.
This bill means small businesses won’t have to fear being bankrupted by legal fees if they lose in court. Now we just need Malcolm Turnbull and his team to back them instead of multinational goliaths.]
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/aug/10/liberal-party-marriage-equality-labor-shorten-turnbull-politics-live
adrian @ #1263 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:14 pm
Not so. I said a long time ago that I would have preferred a binding plebiscite to get the issue over with once and for all. I think this is still my preferred option.
Darc @ #1266 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:16 pm
So you posted just to make some point about Dastyari? What was it?
P1:
. I’d rather discuss something more important, like energy policy! : )
Boy, you must be desperate!
[Greensborough Growler
…
I did say due. VE’s assertion of 13 month is his speculation. The closer you are to an election, the more accurate the polls.
I’d also point out that Andrew Leigh did his thesis on poll outcomes versus election results and I was simply using the conclusion he drew .]
I was just laying out the all the situations for a normal election,
but if you want to be pedantic;
The next election due is May, 2019 and it would be a half Senate election.
NOTICE to all PB humorists.
Please end your post with a wink 😉 to forestall bickering.
It is not always easy to separate sarcasm/humour from plain ignorance. 😉
The ABC is being told to provide ‘balanced’ coverage – looks like viewers will be seeing a lot of Abbott and Shelton over the next few months:
ABC staff warned on same-sex coverage
12:07PMROSIE LEWIS, GREG BROWN
PoliticsNow: An email says to be ‘circumspect’ on social media and remember 40pc of the population opposes same-sex marriage.
P1, the point [about Dastyari] was to have a bit of a laugh and bring a smile to your face! Hopeless. Failed miserably. Forgive me, please! Mate of yours?
don @ #1273 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:22 pm
: )
Darc @ #1277 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:26 pm
Sorry. Mea Maxima Culpa!
On the matter of fluency in English (aka computer says No)
I have found that the voice recognition facility on government sites does not recognise my words.
As I have an Australian-modified English accent I find this very annoying.
Wonder where the 40% figure comes from?
As it always does, on any subject, of course. 😉
Barney – a lot of people have said that Malcolm needs to go late next year because, if he doesn’t, he will run into state elections during the first half of 2019 (particularly a NSW election in about April 2019). Further, to keep the houses together he has to hold an election by 30 June 2019. So this government might be in its last year, thank God.
The mob fights back.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/lib-quits-fed-probe-vic-lobster-dinner-ng-s-1758034
Lizzie, I don’t/can’t wink. I have no sarcasm/humour. I am plain ign0rant. What am I to do?
[lizzie
On the matter of fluency in English (aka computer says No)
I have found that the voice recognition facility on government sites does not recognise my words.
As I have an Australian-modified English accent I find this very annoying.]
Sorry Lizzie,
I rest my case,
The technology isn’t there yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMS2VnDveP8
I have Aussie Australian accent and iI have the same problem.
Maybe it only recognises upper-class twat Australian accent.
lizzie @ #1279 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:59 am
Darc @ #1284 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:32 pm
Join the Greens : )
citizen @ #1276 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:25 pm
Well then, guess we can skip the postal survey. We already know how many support, how many oppose, and which number is bigger than the other. Might as well just get on with voting in Parliament.
Barney in Go Dau
I just love that clip.
Uh-oh.
[antonbruckner11
Barney – a lot of people have said that Malcolm needs to go late next year because, if he doesn’t, he will run into state elections during the first half of 2019 (particularly a NSW election in about April 2019). Further, to keep the houses together he has to hold an election by 30 June 2019. So this government might be in its last year, thank God.]
I agree, VE’s and your scenario has a much greater likelihood for the reasons you list.
The chance of a federal election in the second half of 2019 must be virtually nonexistent.
Anyone tried voice recognition in new cars, hysterical. Sometimes the kids & I just try it out for fun, otherwise it’s about 50/50.
[citizen
The ABC is being told to provide ‘balanced’ coverage –
…
‘circumspect’]
Is that code for not challenging bullsh!t and irrelevancies. 🙁
mikehilliard @ #1292 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:42 pm
I don’t think it’s enabled, but if it’s anything like siri etc, it would be a complete waste of time, unless it allowed me to vent on wonderful Sydney drivers and get a response.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1291 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:42 pm
But come on wouldn’t you love to see a half senate only election in Apr 19 whilst Trumble trembles in his room trying to squeeze every last minute out of his term praying for General Wenck, The Tampa, Bin Laden or something to come along and save him?
Barney in Go Dau @ #1293 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 12:48 pm
Situation normal then.
Sorry Darc, you don’t belong here. You must be a RWNJ, lol.
To elaborate on the 13 months thing, which I had thought was fairly uncontroversial.
Turnbull will almost certainly run a simultaneous HoR + half senate election. He could run a DD sooner, but probably won’t. He could run a senate only election and then delay the HoR, but I doubt he will, as people who know these things tell me you get an anti government backlash for half senate only elections.
This link here explains when a simultaneous election could be. Namely 4/08/2018 through 18/05/2019.
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/AustralianElectionsTimetable
The 18/05 date can only be reached by having parliament expire at 12/03/2019, with the longest possible election campaign. I consider it very unlikely that the Libs will want a long election campaign. Last time, they only got worse as the campaign dragged on. Therefore, the latest date I give any credence to would be about 3 weeks earlier, lets say 27/04/2019.
But the NSW state election is 23/3/2017. This means that there would be Federal campaigning during the last 11 days of the election campaign for the largest state, which is also I believe the only election the Liberals would win if current polling bore out (don’t quote me, could be wrong). They will not sabotage the NSW election.
So to give the NSW Libs clear air, the Federal vote would have to be brought forward.
December and Jan are writeoffs for election campaigns. Is there enough room in Feb to run the Federal election campaign and the vote, and have it be forgotten in time for the NSW state election? Possible, but it would be a tight squeeze.
So assuming you determine that a Feb 24 or March 3, 2018 election isn’t feasible, we are left with most of August, all of September, October or November 2018. Ideally avoid late November as silly season is starting. So somewhere between 12-14.5 months away. I presented this as 13, although would be happy to edit my post to say 14 if anyone has a strong opinion – the polls still predicted correctly 3 of the last 4 elections using the polls at any 12-14.5 months out.
Hewson with a stinging rebuke of Turnbull:
ABC can provide balance by asking everyone they interview “how will this change affect you personally” and then jump on them every time they try to shift to safe schools, or think of the children, or political correctness.