Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll records the same two-party preferred result for the sixth poll in a row.

Yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 11% (up two) and One Nation 8% (down one). Both leaders recorded better personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up four on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 50%, and Bill Shorten up three on approval to 36% and down two on disapproval to 51%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 43-32 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1639.

Stay tuned for federal voting intention results from the Queensland-only poll conducted for the Courier-Mail, from which state results were published yesterday.

UPDATE: The numbers from the Courier-Mail’s Galaxy poll from Queensland, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 902, are Coalition 37% (up two since April), Labor 32% (down one), One Nation 12% (down three) and Greens 7%, with Australian Conservatives recording a fairly impressive 6%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition records a lead of 51-49, which compares with 50-50 in April and 54.1-45.9 at last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Love the comments on Newspoll at the OZ. A common theme is the deficit disaster we will get when the ALP is elected. This is despite Bill anouncing more revenue raising measures while the LNP keep squandering to the top end.
    To a lot of them Tony is the saviour, presumably because he can simultaneously keep spending, cut taxes, and decrease the deficit. The man can walk on water.

  2. LOL!

    Now you can take the tweets Trump possibly composed on his toilet and flush them down yours. Toilet Tweets sells a roll of toilet paper with 10 of Trump’s most flushable tweets printed on it. You’ll get to cleanse your nether regions with classic tweets, including: “Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow – if so, will he become my new best friend?” and “Are you allowed to impeach a president for gross incompetence?” Plus, it’s two-ply, so while Trump’s words may be harsh, this paper remains soft.

    https://www.good.is/articles/trump-toilet-tweets

  3. Silentmajority

    It has been a while since I posted any old clips of George Carlin on the blog. If I had of known you were unaware of him, I would have ensured I continued to do so. His musings were brilliant!!

  4. Question

    A common theme is the deficit disaster we will get when the ALP is elected.

    🙂 Yeah totally unlike how it was with Tony ,Mal, HoJo and Scrott.

  9. Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein said Sunday that the expanding investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election is continuing apace, even as President Trump dismissed the probe as “a total fabrication.”

    Rosenstein said special counsel Robert S. Mueller III can investigate any crimes that he might discover within the scope of his probe, but the deputy attorney general would not discuss which individuals are the subject of their inquiry. The interview comes days after Trump said he believes it would be inappropriate for Mueller to dig into Trump family finances.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/rosenstein-special-counsel-mueller-can-investigate-any-crimes-he-uncovers-in-russia-probe/2017/08/06/2209365a-7aae-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_rosenstein-1213pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e01b02032f41

  13. The Trump administration is wading into one of the oldest and most contentious debates in the West by encouraging more coal mining on lands owned by the federal government. It is part of an aggressive push to both invigorate the struggling American coal industry and more broadly exploit commercial opportunities on public lands.

    The intervention has roiled conservationists and many Democrats, exposing deep divisions about how best to manage the 643 million acres of federally owned land — most of which is in the West — an area more than six times the size of California. Not since the so-called Sagebrush Rebellion during the Reagan administration have companies and individuals with economic interests in the lands, mining companies among them, held such a strong upper hand.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/06/us/politics/under-trump-coal-mining-gets-new-life-on-us-lands.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    I don’t understand the logic. Demand for coal seems to be going down, so how is this going to create “wealth and jobs” if the demand isn’t there?

  14. America doesn’t have a president. The man occupying the presidency is the world’s laziest retiree.

    Which wouldnt be a problem if he/she was a reasonable person who isnt fixated by themselves and able to listen with an open mind to advisers who are good, wise people prepared to give frank advice.

    Oh sh!t.

  17. Maybe the Australian should run an article headed;

    Liberal MP reckons Malcolm Turnbull is a tops bloke

    or

    Simon Katich reckons the Australian is a dirty flea-ridden rotting bum rag

    FFS

  18. So party room at 4.30pm right? Followed by joint party meeting at 6.30pm?

    Sadly I dont expect much fireworks.

  19. Anyone know when the party room meeting is, more specifically than ‘this afternoon’.

    Also, I’m surprised Newspoll hasn’t just faked a 52 or 54 by now. It’s starting to look very peculiar.

    Also, if P1 is here, remember you were calling formfillingoutgate the destruction of the Greens party, and declaring without a shred of evidence that it was a black swan event and we should assume The Greens are dead without waiting for the data. Care to walk it back?

  20. Btw William may not appreciate this statement. But here goes.

    Based on comments I read on previous thread that were responding to dtt, I gleaned that dtt was attempting to inflame by inserting me and PhoenixRed into having certain positions on the state of play in American politics.

    In a nutshell,

    DTT is a TROLL. No value in engaging with this identity. None at all.

  23. Ides of March

    They will emerge from the meeting with smiles and everyone claiming a prize. Gritted teeth an optional extra.

  24. If they actually come out with a conscience vote (unlikely), it means there’s enough extra Libs willing to cross the floor but not willing to say do publicly yet, that it was fiat accompli anyway.

    The most probable outcome is trying the plebiscite legislation again because it’s a delaying tactic that doesn’t accomplish anything for anyone since the numbers aren’t there unless they amend the plebiscite in ways the conservatives would never allow.

    If it goes to a postal plebiscite as policy the conservatives have the internal numbers.

  25. I’m not holding out any hope that we will see a parliamentary vote on SSM. I’m fully expecting the so-called moderates to back down and fall in line behind the plebiscite policy.

  26. Elaugaufein @ #124 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 9:23 am

    If they actually come out with a conscience vote (unlikely), it means there’s enough extra Libs willing to cross the floor but not willing to say do publicly yet, that it was fiat accompli anyway.

    The most probable outcome is trying the plebiscite legislation again because it’s a delaying tactic that doesn’t accomplish anything for anyone since the numbers aren’t there unless they amend the plebiscite in ways the conservatives would never allow.

    If it goes to a postal plebiscite as policy the conservatives have the internal numbers.

    If it gets knocked back twice, it could become a DD item.

  27. The question is, will a Labor MP try to suspend standing orders to bring on the debate on ME and see if the rogue Lib MPs are willing to cross the floor? Their own party will be unlikely to allow the debate. I know the ALP is not going to use this for no confidence but someone will need to bring it to the house after it travels through the senate.

    Today’s Lib meeting would be an excellent ‘fly on the wall’ study in common sense v religious right nut jobs

  29. Fess

    Yep. Hence why DTT is a bona fide troll and nothing else.

    Of course it is up to others if they want to waste their time engaging. I for one, will not.

    Life is too short

  31. Sunrise is stying to spin this as good for Turnbull by emphasizing the Preferred PM numbers, which of course means NOTHING if you aren’t ahead in the actual poll…

  32. I see no appetite for a DD at the moment. That will only change if PHON significantly underperforms at the Queensland election and the Australian Conservatives don’t pull above 6% anywhere.

    Let alone one on an issue like this where the Coalition is seriously wedged.

  34. I doubt Mal would chance another DD. His last foray was a near death experience.

    I suspect a DD would see annihilation simply because the electorate would resent another election because of the govts. Poor record so far. Forget Mal’s personal following (diminishing though that is).

  35. Uhlmann sounds a tad despondent about the Libs:

    Same-sex marriage debate threatening to tear Government apart

    and at the end of the article something uncharacteristic from Uhlmann:

    No-one can see the future, but there are another three things that seem inevitable.

    Same-sex marriage will be legalised and the only way that can happen is through a parliamentary vote.

    There will be a price on carbon — or something that approximates one — because without it there will be no investment in new generation.

    And if the Government house continues to be divided against itself, it will fall.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-07/same-sex-marriage-debate-analysis-chris-uhlmann/8779520

  36. Douglas and Milko @ #56 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 11:45 pm

    I have noticed the to and fro tonight about whether hoping for the removal of Trump as POTUS is a good or bad moral choice. It was also suggested that “goalposts were being shifted” in the arguments back and forth.

    As a public service I am providing a link to the “Thou shall not commit logical fallacies poster”, so that we can at least agree on the terms of reference for the accusations leveled at other posters: https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/poster

    I use this poster quite a lot in various contexts. You can download it for free, but can make a small donation if you would like. The disclaimer at the bottom of the donation popup says “Your donation may also be used for beer, but this arguably gives me energy to do altruistic work.”

    I heartily endorse this use of money, and tried to give the person a donation equal to a pint. The Javascript is not working tonight on my Firefox, so I will try again tomorrow using a different browser.

    What an excellent poster!
    I particularly liked the “Middle Ground” which is what “centrists” seem to cherish.

    “Saying that a compromise, or middle point, between two
    extremes must be the truth.
    Much of the time the truth does indeed lie between two extreme points, but this
    can bias our thinking: sometimes a thing is simply untrue and a compromise of it
    is also untrue. Half way between truth and a lie, is still a lie.
    Holly said that vaccinations caused autism in children, but her scientifically
    well-read friend Caleb said that this claim had been debunked and proven false.
    Their friend Alice oered a compromise that vaccinations cause some autism.”

  37. [confessions
    I’m not holding out any hope that we will see a parliamentary vote on SSM. I’m fully expecting the so-called moderates to back down and fall in line behind the plebiscite policy.    ]

    After listening the Dean Smith on Insiders yesterday I can’t see that being the case for all.

    It sounds like he has supporters in the House.

  38. Listening to Smith and Wilson being interviewed this morning, they’ve already folded. It’s really just a question of plebiscite 2.0 in the senate, or a postal one.

  39. jenauthor @ #133 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 9:34 am

    I doubt Mal would chance another DD. His last foray was a near death experience.

    I suspect a DD would see annihilation simply because the electorate would resent another election because of the govts. Poor record so far. Forget Mal’s personal following (diminishing though that is).

    Jen and fess,

    You’re probably right.

    But the way the Libs are going on about the Plebescite and how they had a mandate from the last election, you’d expect that the rejection of such a Government defining piece of legislation is something they will die in a ditch over.

  41. Funnily enough GG – it is always a social policy that seems to bring the Libs undone. They can do disgusting things on the economic front and they seem to get away with it, but social policy is where they stuff themselves.

    The so-called free speech advocates have a preoccupation with intruding on people’s private lives and the electorate seems to unconsciously know it is a contradiction

  42. For those who are treating the Greens up 2% as surprising remember that’s off a 9% which is low. This isn’t saying much except that the Greens vote seems to be largely unaffected by Formsgate and the NSW show in the context of this poll.

    Actually given polling error it’s possible the Greens base performance have fallen to ~9% instead of ~10% but it will take months to tell.

  43. lizzie

    Do the Coalition members really believe that they have never, never broken an election commitment?

    I flicked AM on this morning for a couple of minutes.

    Some Lib was warbling on about the Libs needing to keep the ‘promise’ of a plebiscite on SSM that they took to the last election.

    The Lib was asked what about the ‘parental leave’ promise … no real answer.

    I switched it off thinking ‘no cuts to education, no cuts to Medicare, no cuts to the ABC’ …

  45. I suspect it’s because such ‘soft” issues are not really vote changers. On breakfast this morning, Fran Kelly cited a stat from a very recent survey that only 6% of the voters are strongly committed on SSM. This shows to me that support is broad but not very deep on the issue. Another reason why the pollies are safely using it as a play thing. After all that is said and done there is far more said about SSM than actually done!

  46. Funny, the headline I heard on ABC News was ‘PM improves position’ or something similar, related to the ‘Preferred PM’ question. It also mentioned that ‘Labor was still ahead on two party preferred’. Now I don’t think that the ABC is biased. It is under constant attack while the Coalition is in power. I am assuming that they got that headline from the Report in the Australian or the Telecrap.

  47. I think GG is right on SSM (to a degree). Its not a vote changer with most people already falling on a side of yes/no and their associated parties. However it feeds into a look and feeling that Malcolm is useless and beholden to the right wing. It also reflects poorly on parliament with them unable to sort out issues (SSM, energy + climate policy etc).

  48. And as always, the execs blame a code monkey.

    Commonwealth Bank says its failure to tell authorities about more than 53,000 large cash deposits was caused by a software update, which triggered an “error” in its reporting system that was not picked up for more than two years. CBA says it took more than two years for the bank to detect an error that meant its intelligent deposit machines (IDMs) did not generate threshold transaction reports (TTRs) on transactions of more than $10,000.

    The fact that no-one noticed for 2 years that the reports had stopped generating, probably means no-one was reading the reports anyway.

    So, CBA, rather than blame the coder. Who was meant to read and respond to those reports? and what were they doing for 2 years when the reports weren’t being generated?

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-bright-start-ahead-for-asx-20170806-gxqju6.html

  49. A couple of gems from today’s DT:

    POWERFUL broadcaster Alan Jones has threatened to run against Liberal Minister Alex Hawke in his northwest Sydney seat, saying there is an “obligation” to oust the centre-right faction boss from Parliament.

    THE leaked transcript of Malcolm Turnbull’s first conversation with Donald Trump is clear — that our PM conspired to cook up a swap that puts us potentially in more danger, writes Andrew Bolt.

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