Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Another stable Newspoll, as both major parties gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of the various “others”.

Another fortnight (or so), another 53-47 to Labor result from Newspoll. This time out the primary votes are Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 9% (down two). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are slightly improved, with approval up two to 34% and disapproval down two to 54%, and his lead as preferred prime minister out from 41-33 to 43-32, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at 33% approval and 53% disapproval.

UPDATE: Paywalled Australian report here. Kevin Bonham: “Same 2PP five #Newspolls in a row, a new all-time record. #auspol”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

709 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. VE:

    I’d love to know where those $200k pa farms from carbon sequestration over east exist. As C@t said, unlikely to be Qld cause they’re too busy clearing.

  2. Confessions

    Either the UNHCR is lying or the Government is lying. That much is clear.

    Given this governments past record I would back the UNHCR.

  3. kezza2
    Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    ****************************************************

    My Apologies – I am not usually on at night when you sometimes are but as I see you here now – THANK YOU for your readings on Rommel and that funny story of Il Duce/ Benito Mussolini on his white charger…… something I am sure Malcolm would love to emulate

    My FIA was in the 9th Divison in WW 2 and was also a Rat Of Tobruk and got mentioned in dispatches for going out of his trench under enemy fire and rescuing and dragging back to safe one of his mates …. he has many funny stories ……but always avoids the hell of what must have been

  4. CCCP addresses
    Combine the following
    “https://greasyfork.” Plus “org/en/scripts/18677-crikeycleancommentpreview”

  5. VE

    ‘So true to form for Australia (lets grow rice in the driest continent on the planet)…’

    Argh, fallacy upon fallacy there.

    We grow a lot of things in the driest continent on the planet. We just don’t grow them where there’s no water. Where we do grow them, there’s lots and lots of water.

    Rice is arguably a much more sensible crop to grow than, say, peaches. Rice is only grown when there is plenty of water in the system – being an annual crop, you don’t plant it if you know you can’t grow it. So, when there’s a lack of water, rice isn’t grown, and the demand on the water supply overall thus decreases.

    Whereas peaches are a fixed, long term crop. If irrigated peach trees don’t get water, they die. So peaches continue to be grown even in times of high water stress.

    An irrigated orchard puts far more stress on the system during a drought than a rice farm does…because the rice farm is drawing no water at all.

  6. guytaur @ #448 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:36 pm

    Confessions
    Rudd has UN contacts. Part of the US deal fallen through or not is that refugees be settled in Australia. No excuses. This is the allegation that was agreed to.

    The UN is mistaken about what was agreed with Australia about the refugees.

    Don’t you all know that Rule #1 is that Peter Dutton is never wrong. Rule #2 is if Peter Dutton is wrong, refer to Rule #1.

    They clearly didn’t get two copies of the agreement. One etched in stone, and the other written with blood on asbestos paper, both witnessed by the full bench of the High Court.

  7. confessions @ #439 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Personally I believe those whining about how William does his gig should put their money where their loud mouths are and go elsewhere. I mean, nobody is forcing you to comment here, so if it really is so terrible for you and if William truly is such a partisan meanie, why hang around? Are youse that much into self-loathing?

    I think overall William does an excellent job – and I speak as someone who was banned by him once following an interaction with our resident misogynist.

    I learnt my lesson from that incident, and no longer interact with that particular poster at all. I wish a few others here would do the same.

  8. Zoomster
    Rice does however use more water than any other crop so the question is if using it for rice is the most efficient use of the water.

  9. @ Zoomster – I used to live in the area where the majority of the country’s rice is grown. Trust me, there was not lots and lots of water there.

    Griffith receives 1/3rd the average annual rainfall Sydney does.

    The rice is grown virtually every year, through the magic (and terror) of irrigation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riverina#Rice
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_075028.shtml
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml

  10. William’s blog, his rules.
    Live with it or leave, but no point in whining.

    Hell if he told me to stop complaining about the ABC, I would…..probably.

  11. zeh @ #440 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #428 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 3:22 pm

    That ping result is a bit low, suggesting an extremely close test server, try to manually select one some distance away from you and then view your upload speed.
    Upload is extremely dependent on distance. As most web services are hosts overseas (NA or EU), this speed result wont be very indicative of ‘real world’ use…
    Many cloud services now have frontends within AU however, in Sydney particularly, so this is encouraging…

    Hi Zeh,
    I’m in Vietnam about 50km out of HCMC.

    Just tested again on http://www.bandwidthplace.com/ (different website from first test, couldn’t change server) with server listed in Hong Kong.
    Ping – 34 ms
    Download – 15.2 Mbps
    Upload – 10.85 Mbps

    For a server in New York
    Ping – 249 ms
    Download – 3.88 Mbps
    Upload – 4.76 Mbps

  12. Phoenix

    Glad you read it. I thought you may have missed it, and I thank you for the correction. For a minute there I thought I was on your scroll-by list; some of us, we torture ourselves at times.

    Geez, your father in law must be ancient, unless he lied on his enlistment forms. The Rats got a fairly good mention in the Rommel’s records, interestingly, the Yanks not so much.

  13. P1:

    I just hope Lizzie returns and doesn’t feel like she can’t comment here anymore for fear of being pounced upon all the time. I get that not all women feel safe commenting and challenging bullies online, and Lizzie has expressed this view of herself previously. It would be a shame if we’ve lost her IMO.

  14. Rice does however use more water than any other crop so the question is if using it for rice is the most efficient use of the water.

    On the other hand, it’s one of the most valuable crops, and grows without little more than water and sun.

    I built a pile of input-output tables modelling crops and grazing in the MDB for a well-known economist (often cited here) – when rice is good to grow, its pretty hard to beat in terms of gross yields.

    Plus, as pointed out above, you can grow it opportunistically.

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #464 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 3:54 pm

    zeh @ #440 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #428 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 3:22 pm

    That ping result is a bit low, suggesting an extremely close test server, try to manually select one some distance away from you and then view your upload speed.
    Upload is extremely dependent on distance. As most web services are hosts overseas (NA or EU), this speed result wont be very indicative of ‘real world’ use…
    Many cloud services now have frontends within AU however, in Sydney particularly, so this is encouraging…

    Hi Zeh,
    I’m in Vietnam about 50km out of HCMC.

    Just tested again on http://www.bandwidthplace.com/ (different website from first test, couldn’t change server) with server listed in Hong Kong.
    Ping – 34 ms
    Download – 15.2 Mbps
    Upload – 10.85 Mbps

    For a server in New York
    Ping – 249 ms
    Download – 3.88 Mbps
    Upload – 4.76 Mbps

    Perfect example of distance (latency) affecting speeds.
    Of course it is highly dependent on the host itself and its capabilities, but in general its always best to do a range of tests over different distances as you have done, to get a more accurate view of what your internet experience is like.

    Unfortunately, a proper NBN in Australia would have seen more content/service providers putting servers on AU soil, which would have seen the single biggest increase in web responsiveness for us. (General internet use is much more latency sensitive than line-speed sensitive)

  16. We get 3 crops of rice a year up here and for me I can’t think of too many more beautiful sites than lush green rice paddies stretching off into the distance.. 🙂

  17. kezza2
    Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:56 pm

    Geez, your father in law must be ancient, unless he lied on his enlistment forms. The Rats got a fairly good mention in the Rommel’s records, interestingly, the Yanks not so much.

    **************************************
    I should have said my LATE FIA ….. We still have the yellow steel Africa Korps German Army Helmet …….. and Desert Cap he took off an German officer along with a nasty little dagger with a swastika on it ….. I think a lot of the Aussies respected Rommel as being a fair man who did not ill -treat prisoners …….

  18. @ Zoomster – I feel confident enough to make specific claims on irrigation of rice farming in the Riverina, having talked extensively to someone who was directly involved in dealing with these farmers.

    On the others, I honestly don’t know enough about the specifics to comment. Regardless, my view is that water, like Carbon should be priced in accordance with it’s value as a scarce resource, not in accordance with the amount of power wielded by the National Party, despite receiving only 3-4% of the vote.

  19. Fess

    I have no doubt Lizzie will be back; she just took a break because it’s useless arguing with the resident Attention Seeker.

    He just doesn’t understand how his comments across; I mean, seriously, why did he feel the need to comment on lizzie’s contribution? It makes no sense, other than he was bristling with angst, and had to take it out on someone. Teenager stuff, thinking to pick on the most inoffensive, and the most informative and lively, poster on this blog.

  20. Hi Vic,
    Thanks for asking about S2. 🙂
    I think he’s turned the corner. Last night was a doozy! How do you try to stay above it all when you see nurses and doctors gathered around him frantically pumping litres of fluid out of his stomach because it can’t get past the blockage in his gut!?! All so he can breathe freely again. Then putting a nasogastric tube up his nose and down his throat so they can keep pumping out more litres of fluid overnight until he can be put into theatre again today to free up the scar tissue.

    Fingers crossed he’ll be okay after that is sorted and he has a drain inserted into his side to get rid of the fluid that he has around his liver as well.

    Such is life. 🙂

  21. C@t

    How do you cope indeed!
    Just hearing about it is upsetting and anxiety inducing stuff.
    Positive energy that he has indeed turned the corner!

  22. @C@Tmomma

    Out of interest, and pls ignore if impertinent, did he get transferred to RNSH? And best wishes all round.

  23. Phoenix

    “I think a lot of the Aussies respected Rommel as being a fair man who did not ill -treat prisoners …….”

    From what I’m reading (I still haven’t finished it – night-shift’s a bugger), yes, he seemed to have treated the prisoners well, as he did appear to have respect for fighting men . . . however, the Allies seem to respect him most because of his unorthodox military tactics.

    Most of the time Ultra (read Enigma) failed was when Rommel disobeyed orders. But, then again, I’m reading a bio tainted by the author.

  24. Regardless, my view is that water, like Carbon should be priced in accordance with it’s value as a scarce resource, not in accordance with the amount of power wielded by the National Party, despite receiving only 3-4% of the vote.

    We tried… man, we tried. Tally it up under “Howard Policy Failures.”

  25. Guytaur:

    As PvO points out it was only yesterday (yesterday!!) that not only Dutton, but a plethora of other ministers were out there declaring ‘no way in hell’ on resettlement. This is indeed huge, but given these categorical statements from the govt this announcement would appear to me to be somewhat of a surprise and a bolt from the blue.

  26. Like in all things, Abbott is trying crash or crash through.

    To threaten “in Canberra, massive damage” if the state executive puts in sensible precautions to prevent branch stacking is a high risk strategy.

    By ruling out a sensible compromise and threatening MAD, he is hoping that the executive back down and allow him to branch stack his way back to the PM position.

    But more likely, they will simply say that if Abbott is going to be unhappy even if they pass his reform, they would prefer to maintain control over the party and have an unhappy Abbott, rather than lose control over the party and still have an unhappy Abbott.

    He really is the most effective wrecker in Australian history.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-warns-factional-leaders-dont-play-silly-buggers/news-story/18fb07bafbef1c0eb2acc114ba594fa8

  27. a r @ #483 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 4:15 pm

    Zeh @ #431 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 3:23 pm

    stumbled upon a resume

    I assume that means something along the lines of the public version of a Stackoverflow Careers profile and not, say, some freely downloadable PDF or something?

    Unfortunately, a publicly available PDF, 2nd google result when looking up your FF/Chrome user used to publish your plugin…
    If i hazard a guess, hosted on your own business webpage?

  28. phoenixred @ #472 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    kezza2
    Monday, July 24, 2017 at 3:56 pm
    Geez, your father in law must be ancient, unless he lied on his enlistment forms. The Rats got a fairly good mention in the Rommel’s records, interestingly, the Yanks not so much.
    **************************************
    I should have said my LATE FIA ….. We still have the yellow steel Africa Korps German Army Helmet …….. and Desert Cap he took off an German officer along with a nasty little dagger with a swastika on it ….. I think a lot of the Aussies respected Rommel as being a fair man who did not ill -treat prisoners …….

    What is FIA? Did you mean FIL as I assumed until you used it a second time.

  29. latikambourke: UNHCR accuses Australia of reneging on conditions of refugee-swap deal with US: latika.me/2tsJbkP | @smh pic.twitter.com/adlM9eWuzw

    PatsKarvelas: We are talking to the UNHCR on @RNDrive at 6:05pm tonight #auspol twitter.com/latikambourke/…

  30. C@tmomma @ #478 Monday, July 24th, 2017 – 4:08 pm

    Hi Vic,
    Thanks for asking about S2. 🙂
    I think he’s turned the corner. Last night was a doozy! How do you try to stay above it all when you see nurses and doctors gathered around him frantically pumping litres of fluid out of his stomach because it can’t get past the blockage in his gut!?! All so he can breathe freely again. Then putting a nasogastric tube up his nose and down his throat so they can keep pumping out more litres of fluid overnight until he can be put into theatre again today to free up the scar tissue.

    Fingers crossed he’ll be okay after that is sorted and he has a drain inserted into his side to get rid of the fluid that he has around his liver as well.

    Such is life. 🙂

    Hope all goes well from here C@t,
    My mother recently had a bowel cancer scare. She had an obstruction caused by a tumour that luckily was quite isolated (usually obstructions occur quite late stage). After emergency surgery to remove 300mm of her bowel (across the intersection between small and large), the therapists were urging her to get moving and walking the minute she came to, to try and avoid common complications like adhesions, by getting the bowel moving naturally. She managed to escape the whole scare without even a round of chemo.
    And interestingly, various food intolerance she had had for years prior seemed to vanish post op…

  31. “Maybe from my years in the ALP I am used to more robust …”

    I knew we’d get there -“It’s all Labor’s fault”.

  32. Zoomster – don’t think that is how it works but short of sending you books about it, we can agree to disagree on the process. All I know is that cancers can starve while the body doesn’t – whether it has something to do with the fact they have rogue genetics and are therefore treated as foreign by the body, or something, is, like I said, beyond my scientific background. The human body differentiates between diseased tissues and healthy tissues.

    Ketogenic diets also apparently help in treatment for MS and other nerve-related diseases as well. Dr Wahl has a very good record/book(s)/treatment regime known as the Wahl protocol on this since she is/was a sufferer herself.

  33. bemused Monday, July 24, 2017 at 4:18 pm
    phoenixred @ #472 Monday, July 24, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    What is FIA? Did you mean FIL as I assumed until you used it a second time.

    ********************************************

    OOPS – Sorry and THANK YOU, Bemused – been a loooooong weekend – I did not even pick it up on either time – I did mean my LATE Father In Law ( FIL ) – who served in Tobruk and New Guinea …… and we have passed it all onto his great, great grandkids , who take it in turns on Anzac Day etc – to excitedly and proudly wearing his medals …… along with my LATE fathers WW2 medals for serving in UK Fighter/Bomber Command …..

  34. Vic and Fess

    Lizzie is indeed a treasure. As she has said, time and again, she posts stuff for our enjoyment, or otherwise, or purely for information, without necessarily endorsing the content.

    And as an adjunct to BK’s fantabulous contributions, she adds so much that is admirable to this blog.

    Long may she contribute.

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