BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. don @ #128 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:20 am

    FWIW

    Not much. All these reports are based on the same data – see http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses – which shows that while the number of PV installations is climbing, the rate of installations peaked back in 2012 and has been declining steadily ever since (exactly what you would expect of a normal logistic growth curve in a constrained environment – in this case, the number of suitable rooftops). However, because the average system size is going up, the actual number of new kWh installed each month turns out to be surprisingly consistent. But technological limitations mean that this source of growth is also constrained – at least for rooftop installations – so this source of growth will also peter out eventually.

    Given the recent focus on this issue and the price gouging currently going on, perhaps there will be another upswing of installations when the next tranche of data is published, but it is too early to say for sure how significant this will be.

  2. Paul Kelly says it’s time for a showdown between Turnbull and Abbott to sort out their “poisonous differences”. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/greiner-is-right-poison-at-heart-of-the-party-must-end/news-story/62ac5b9780eaaadd45492e0697646ec0

    It’s worth googling the lamentable Kelly in order to read the comments section at the end of his pompous whinge. The acrimony evident on the Right is really something to behold. The Right detest Turnbull and idolise Abbott. They take it all very personally, too. I think this is interesting. The Right hate each other. They also clearly more concerned to blame each other for their many failures and their impending defeat than they are to redress their basic problems.

    If the Liberals continue in this mode they are going to experience their biggest defeat since their formation. They are just disintegrating. There are many opportunities here for Labor campaigns.

  3. I wrote a post about standing penises and candidate sex appeal and that wretched Abbott creep’s comments about Fiona Scott, which segued into Trump’s disgusting ogling and verballing a woman who wasn’t even young enough to be his daughter, which segued into what the hell Macron was doing cosying up to Trump anyway, WW1 notwithstanding, and that Macron was no lefty and the anti-Trump and anti-Macron protests got no coverage, and how come Turnbull got to go for a joy ride in Macron’s jet, and was it all about the subs, which the German’s wanted, and they know about subs, and that they would spend the billions buying our gas anyway, to progress their urgent need to break dependence from Russia …

    … but then I clicked on the funny pic with Putin turning up at Malcolm’s gormless soldiery press conference, and lost the post.

  4. Don
    Without plotting out the actual data, I think the underlying growth in solar pv has been exponential for 17 years at least, but pushed ahead of the curve in the early 2010’s due to subsidies which were gradually reduced. We are currently seeing it push drastically ahead of the curve due to high power prices, but the underlying growth is here to stay for quite a few years. Businesses have barely started on solar installations, and householders can go for larger and larger systems as the price of panels as a proportion of the total installation cost drops.
    It will be fascinating to see what happens if/when local trading becomes a reality. Buying extra solar panels, and setting up mini solar farms in the backyard, may become a better investment than a second property.

  5. With Doctor Who in the news today, when I saw a pic of Mal’s presser I thought for a glorious moment that he had scooped up a group of aliens to support him.

  6. Trog Sorrenson @ #155 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 12:36 pm

    Buying extra solar panels, and setting up mini solar farms in the backyard, may become a better investment than a second property.

    That seems possible in rural areas where the backyard is likely measured in acres. Less workable in suburbs where yard sizes of a few hundred square meters are more common.

  7. Schadenfreude George‏
    @GeorgeBludger

    Today’s Government is brought to you by the letters “F”, “M” and “D”, and the word “overreach”.

    Duncan Watson‏ @DuncanWatson8 · 3m3 minutes ago

    Replying to @GeorgeBludger @ResignInShame

    TURNBULL : “…and remember, if you see a bitter, angry, ape-eared man wearing red Speedos & armed with a sniper’s rifle–SHOOT ON SIGHT.”

  8. @P1
    For embedded solar the heavy lifting of very large systems (>150kW) is going to take a while to come through because of the lead time for getting the installation/connection approved by the grid operators, whose priority, quite rightly, is grid stability, and the cost of the required grid protections and electrical upgrades forms a high percentage of the overall cost of the system, and ground mounting typically adds about 30% to the cost of a system.

    With PV prices coming down and grid prices going up, ground mounted systems (i.e., carpark solar) becomes viable and we’ll start seeing high hundreds of kW and MW scale systems. One of the reasons that large business has not taken up rooftop PV is that their roofs are not engineered to take the weight and wind loading of hundreds/thousands of panels.

  9. Even Members Of Congress Are Calling Out The Stupidity Of Trump’s Lawyer

    After Trump’s lawyer Jay Sekulow had claimed that the Secret Service should have stopped the Russians from meeting with the Trump campaign, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) called Sekulow dumb as a rock.

    Sekulow is going to regret ever trying to make that argument because while rejecting his claim, the Secret Service confirmed that Trump was in Trump Tower while the Russians were meeting with his son, son in law, and campaign manager.

    It has gotten so bad for Trump that even members of Congress can’t resist commenting on the stupidity of his legal team. Rep. Lieu was correct. It isn’t the job of the Secret Service to prevent Trump and his family from breaking the law. The Secret Service was there to physically protect Trump. The Russians presented no physical danger to the then Republican nominee, so the Secret Service isn’t obligated to protect the Trumps from themselves.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/16/members-congress-calling-stupidity-trump.html

  10. ‘It is insane, borderline psychotic’: Ex-Trump 2016 official blasts campaign for taking Russia meeting

    “It is insane, borderline psychotic, that Paul [Manafort]…let this happen,” the Trump campaign aide said toThe Daily Beast. “It’s just one of those things that will follow you forever.”

    “It’s a situation that has left Trump-world’s legal teams, surrogates, and senior figures in a constant scramble to find the next best-sounding explanation,” wrote The Daily Beast’s Asawin Suebsaeng.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/it-is-insane-borderline-psychotic-ex-trump-2016-official-blasts-campaign-for-taking-russia-meeting/

  11. I know it’s tedious, but how much more evidence do we need that Trumble is an utterly immoral scumbag? It would take millennia for him to evolve into a louse.

  12. I don’t really get the recent military vs terrorist announcement. Particularly as to why the military are being asked to train the police.

    Imagine if it happened elsewhere in the emergency services:

    It turns out, occasionally, Doctors end up not managing to save a patient. And very occasionally, when people spend hours analysing a decision a doctor had less than a second to make, they come to a different conclusion than the doctor and accuse the doctor of screwing up.

    So the solution, we have janitors who are nearby not doing much. lets get them to help with the brain surgery. And just to make sure that everyone is the room is competent for this difficult task and everyone is on the same page, lets ensure that the janitors train the doctors in how to do brain surgery.

    I should point out that I mean no offence to janitors. They have a difficult job, and they do it well. It’s just that their qualifications and experience wouldn’t help them much if they were forced to complete brain surgery.

  13. Good afternoon all,

    Turnbull has really displayed his panic and frustration today. On top of the ” army on the streets ” rhetoric he will in the near future be bringing to a cinema near you his brand new super department to be under the control of Dutton.

    I really do not think Turnbull has given much thought ( once again ) to the implications of his latest rubbish.

    Firstly, Ministers will not be happy to lose control of slabs of their departments simply to appease Dutton and have something to announce. A few leaks and some internals may be on the cards.

    Secondly, I wonder how much consultation has been done with the various states and their police forces re on the ground control of ” terrorist ” situations. Would not be surprised if there was blow back on this as well.

    Once again Turnbull has grabbed at a announceable and has given bugger all thought as to how it will all play out.

    Cheers.

  14. Trumble, not Trump Victoria.

    All the bullshit about how Brian Trumble would come in and be everything Abbott was not. Sickening. Abbott at least has a remnant of a spine. As rotten as Tones is, Trumble is worse.

  15. On my way home, the car radio had shock jock Smith and Frydenberg. It’s all Labor’s fault of course. Squeaky clean coal will prevent all those old people from freezing to death in winter, or something like that.

  16. doyley @ #170 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    Once again Turnbull has grabbed at a announceable and has given bugger all thought as to how it will all play out.

    All Mal ever sees is an opportunity to try to halt the steady decline in his party polling and (even worse!) his own personal approval ratings.

  17. Doyley
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 1:25 pm
    Good afternoon all,

    Turnbull has really displayed his panic and frustration today. On top of the ” army on the streets ” rhetoric he will in the near future be bringing to a cinema near you his brand new super department to be under the control of Dutton.

    This may explain Quaedvlieg’s written rant last Friday about how he is innocent of misconduct, the subject of scurrilous allegations and just wants to return to his position as soon as possible to protect the people of Australia from the nasty terrorists.

    If he is sidelined for too long, Quaedvlieg may miss out on being part of the great new super department.

  18. guytaur @ #114 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 10:59 am

    Jeff_Sparrow: Does anyone look at that pic and think, gee, I feel safer with guys with machine guns and balaclavas in the streets? twitter.com/BevanShields/s…
    https://twitter.com/jeff_sparrow/status/886751114191716352

    One of the major differences I noticed when I started travelling was the noticeable presence of heavily armed military on the streets in many countries, the absence of which, in Australia, I considered a huge endorsement of the society we had created.

    So sad that this may change as a result of an inept PM looking for a distraction from his and his Government’s failings. 🙁

  19. Trog,,
    Quite a lot. For example:

    The National Electricity Market (NEM) was estab lished in a context of an energy system comprised of large generators and large energy utilities, with energy flowing in one direction: from power station to consumer. Things have moved on.

    No they have not. The vast majority of electrical energy is still sources from large generators.

    Most of the activity now is behind the meter, local, or within regions…

    No it is not. Large scale storage and renewable generation investment is the main source of new storage and generation capacity.

    State governments now recognise that their voters will blame or reward them for “keeping the lights on”, and are not prepared to suffer to help supply other states.

    I don’t even know what this means. Tas, for example, make a motza selling energy into the NEM at peak times. They love helping other states. Likewise for NSW and Vic, who own stakes in Snowy Hydro.

    The NEM has failed. Its very narrow economic objective was to provide low prices, reliable and safe energy, and to act in the long term interests of consumers. Many would score it zero out of three.

    We have a very reliable supply of electricity in Aus, and relatively cheap too. Compared to Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia…. big countries, that have really expensive electricity. Compared to the US and Europe, we have historically higher reliability. Could be cheaper, yes, and more reliable, yes, but it is hard to see how that could be done simultaneously by adjusting the parameters of the NEM (the gas market is another story).

    The NEM framework defines the electricity industry as licensed generators, network operators and retailers.

    …and aggregators for small generators and ancillary services. That’s going to be quite a big deal in the near future.

  20. Mal with the masked soldiers in the background is an even worse optic than Gillard and Bradbury on the patrol boat ahead of the 2013 election. Looks desperate and contrived.

  21. **WA dairy farmers feel pressure to sign ‘devastating’ new Brownes contracts** ABC
    They should form a union (or at least a cooperative) instead of joining up with the violin ensemble.

    But they wont. Hard to argue against unions when you are in one.

  22. In a perverse way, Hastie is correct about what Australian electors want from the Turnbull government. People are sick of the government mismanagement of energy costs, wage stagnation, lousy NBN, soaring medical costs and many other issues.

    While the LNP is almost totally consumed by Abbott vs Turnbull, people are crying out for good government and all they are getting is total disregard for their needs, along with “it’s all Labor’s fault”.

    Of course, people like Hastie will never accept the vast majority of people do not want the ‘solutions’ advocated by his RWNJ faction of the Liberals.

    Liberal MP Andrew Hastie said he had conducted 16 town hall meetings in his Western Australian electorate of Canning since April and his constituents were not talking about the government’s leadership.

    “They are every day Australians who are too busy working, paying down their mortgage, raising children, they’re just not talking about it,” he told Sky News. “There is a disconnect between Twitter and normal people.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-mps-rally-behind-nick-greiner-say-liberal-divisions-must-be-resolved/news-story/03cda5314c15a161385bd6e2f92e9677,/a>

  23. Burgey @ #179 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 2:09 pm

    Mal with the masked soldiers in the background is an even worse optic than Gillard and Bradbury on the patrol boat ahead of the 2013 election. Looks desperate and contrived.

    Or intimidating. The only message I get from those photos is “support me, because I control the guys with the guns”. Wouldn’t vote for Turnbull regardless, but I can’t see how brandishing the military about makes a persuasive argument. It’s the sort of thing you’d expect of Kim Jong-un, or maybe Trump.

  24. I know it’s tedious, but how much more evidence do we need that Trumble is an utterly immoral scumbag? It would take millennia for him to evolve into a louse.

    Oh, but the Insiders yesterday were in awe of how Malcolm, despite the 15 negative Newspolls, just bounces on his toes and has a big, wide shit-eating grin on his face every single day he turns up for work as PM!

  25. Simon Katich,
    PB went all warm and fuzzy last night.

    And I reckon you have the best gravatar since Vera’s cow. 🙂

  26. Burgey,
    Mal with the masked soldiers in the background is an even worse optic than Gillard and Bradbury on the patrol boat ahead of the 2013 election. Looks desperate and contrived.

    Yes, it was definitely one of those ‘Respect my Authorita!’ moments. 🙂

  27. Thanks C@t.
    I was going to pitch in last night but I didnt in case I disturbed the force. I just sat back, sipping my whisky, in between attempts to assemble an Ikea cupboard.

  28. Libertarian Unionist
    We need to look at the issue from basic principles. Not what is there now, but what is evolving.
    We are moving towards a distributed energy generation and storage model, even if the bulk of electricity is still generated and stored on the old centralised model.
    The reason the centralised model has been in place for the last 100 plus years, is because the only technologies available for generation have been large scale coal, hydro and more recently gas.
    This is no longer the case. Individuals, including heavy power uses, can set up their own generators at a lower cost than buying power off the grid.

    State governments now recognise that their voters will blame or reward them for “keeping the lights on”, and are not prepared to suffer to help supply other states.
    I don’t even know what this means. Tas, for example, make a motza selling energy into the NEM at peak times. They love helping other states. Likewise for NSW and Vic, who own stakes in Snowy Hydro.

    Pears was referring to instances where consumers in one state had to take a hit in availability because of a supply problem in another.

    The NEM has failed. Its very narrow economic objective was to provide low prices, reliable and safe energy, and to act in the long term interests of consumers. Many would score it zero out of three.
    We have a very reliable supply of electricity in Aus, and relatively cheap too. Compared to Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia…. big countries, that have really expensive electricity. Compared to the US and Europe, we have historically higher reliability. Could be cheaper, yes, and more reliable, yes, but it is hard to see how that could be done simultaneously by adjusting the parameters of the NEM (the gas market is another story).

    It may be reliable. It is not fucking cheap, and I would have thought that countries like Bangladesh and India would not be particularly appropriate economic benchmarks for Australia.

    The NEM framework defines the electricity industry as licensed generators, network operators and retailers.
    …and aggregators for small generators and ancillary services. That’s going to be quite a big deal in the near future.

    I agree, but in the longer term all local generation will be managed through smart electronics and software – including local trading, which is clearly a major feature of a distributed network working efficiently, but not a feature of the current NEM.
    Clearly we will still need national management of the infrastructure, and to the extent that the grid is national, a national market will continue to exist for some time, perhaps indefinitely, but distributed generation and storage will become the norm and we need to start planning it now. Otherwise a lot of capacity will simply defect from the grid and we will end up with an even greater mess.

  29. I was going to pitch in last night but I didnt in case I disturbed the force. I just sat back, sipping my whisky, in between attempts to assemble an Ikea cupboard.

    Much like you, I was outside on the patio, sipping a gin (bearing my own name) while failing to construct a set of flat-packed monkeybars. Yes, you can get them flat packed too.

    Difference was t’was not warm a fuzzy, and the language was obscene. Plus, by the time I returned inside, the PB love had all gone to bed.

  30. Guytaur @ 11:30
    ‘You don’t see an erect penis.’
    I rarely see an erect penis, but then, I’m not introspective.

  31. Barney

    One of the major differences I noticed when I started travelling was the noticeable presence of heavily armed military on the streets in many countries, the absence of which, in Australia, I considered a huge endorsement of the society we had created.

    If we must have them, we could at least dress them like surfers or other athletes – or even firefighters. That would retain the relaxed Aussie look. (ironic grin)

  32. Looks like the Blackshirts are in ascendancy. Progressives will shortly have to wear a big “P” on their lapel, or maybe, now it’s 2017, a nice little ankle bracelet.

  33. For the second time my family has been trying to put together a flat-packed Kneeling Chair.

    The first time the holes that the bolts had to go into were so big the bolts just kept falling out of them onto the floor.

    So we sent it back and they sent us another one.

    This time the holes for the bolts on one side are spaced 7cm apart, and on the other side they are to go into, they are 7.5cm apart.

    *Sigh*

  34. It’s Dutton vs {Brandis, Bishop, Keenan, Payne & Pyne} at 20 paces. Muskets at the ready.

    The Turnbull government is poised to go ahead with the creation of a national security super-department that would bring together ASIO, the Australian Federal Police and Australian Border Force, according to reports.

    Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is tipped to head the new super-portfolio, which will be debated by cabinet on Tuesday and would be based on Britain’s Home Office.

    After months of speculation, Mr Turnbull now backs the plan, Sky News reported.

    But the plan – arguably the biggest shake-up in the structure of Australia’s national security apparatus in decades – is likely to be fiercely debated in cabinet. Attorney-General George Brandis, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Justice Minister Michael Keenan and Defence Minister Marise Payne are all understood to oppose the idea. Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne is understood to lean against the idea.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-to-head-merged-asio-afp-and-border-force-super-security-department-20170717-gxcpgl.html

  35. But the plan – arguably the biggest shake-up in the structure of Australia’s national security apparatus in decades – is likely to be fiercely debated in cabinet. Attorney-General George Brandis, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Justice Minister Michael Keenan and Defence Minister Marise Payne are all understood to oppose the idea. Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne is understood to lean against the idea.

    I love the description of Chrssie “leaning against the idea”.
    Can I lean too?? 🙂

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-to-head-merged-asio-afp-and-border-force-super-security-department-20170717-gxcpgl.html

  36. lizzie @ #191 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    Barney

    One of the major differences I noticed when I started travelling was the noticeable presence of heavily armed military on the streets in many countries, the absence of which, in Australia, I considered a huge endorsement of the society we had created.

    If we must have them, we could at least dress them like surfers or other athletes – or even firefighters. That would retain the relaxed Aussie look. (ironic grin)

    Their riot shields would be surfboard shaped or resemble an esky lid and footwear would be steel-capped thongs. Smoke and teargas grenades would obviously be stubbie shaped.
    🙂

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