BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

444 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. Kakuru:

    I haven’t watched Dr Who since I was a kid, and there was definitely no funny business between characters in those days!

  2. http://www.theage.com.au/world/australian-woman-killed-in-police-shooting-in-minneapolis-reports-20170716-gxchas.htmlbehind a home about 11.30pm on Saturday, local time.

    An Australian woman has been shot dead by police in the US city of Minneapolis in an incident in which the officers did not have their body cameras turned on.

    Police responded to reports of a possible assault in an alley behind a home about 11.30pm on Saturday, local time.

    One police officer fired their weapon, killing 40-year-old Sydney woman Justine Damond.

    In America you report a disturbance so they turn up and shoot you.

  3. BK missed the big entertainment controversy. A female Doctor Who.

    One Jodi Whittaker. I am for it. However I wanted a bit more rainbow sexuality first.

    You mean “Torchwood”?

  4. TroveAustralia: Have you seen the news?
    “New Dr Who could be a woman” 1980, October 27, in The Canberra Times: trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/arti… #DoctorWho13 pic.twitter.com/ULu6mX9izh

    Just so you know how overdue this is. Just like with a gay Dr.

  5. So Turnbull’s attempts at seducing voters has failed, and he’s now back to the same old LNP tactic of trying to scare people to vote for them.

    What’s even sadder is that Labor will no doubt go along with it.

  6. political_alert: Shadow Defence Minister @RichardMarlesMP will discuss giving ADF a greater role responding to domestic terrorism, 11.45am, Melbourne #auspol

  7. mckinnon_a: sorry to post spoilers but I can’t get over the fact they made Jon Snow a woman in the new season, this show’s gone downhill so fast

  8. Dan:

    I think the general consensus is that you won the best line.

    How long before we extend it to to Cybermen from Mondas played by Cybermen from Mondas?

  9. IOM

    They can’t just use Cybers. There would be panic over all these Cyber attacks we read about including from the PM.

  10. Honestly I think Turnbull had to resort to soldiers as props. At the rate it was going continuing the escalating flag count thing would result in them needing to commandeer every flag inside our borders by Christmas.

  11. Guytaur
    “Not main franchise. Just as Sarah Jane Smith having a spin off not the main franchise.”

    Captain Jack Harkness was bisexual in Dr Who. His spinoff (Torchwood) took rainbow sexuality to a whole new level – especially the last season of Torchwood (‘Miracle Day’). I like to think of myself as open-minded, but I found the gay sex scenes a bit too much.

  12. Kakaru

    An indication of your problem with gay people. There were no real gay sex scenes on Dr Who. Just watch a few episodes of class where they show them having sex in bed. Thats a sex scene.

    You are confusing visibility with a sex scene.

  13. FWIW, part of an email from my rooftop PV supplier:

    ***********************
    The record-breaking uptake of 475MW solar power during the first half of this year is evidence of this growing trend.

    One-in-four Australian homes now has rooftop solar. In Queensland and South Australia uptake has been even higher with 31% of homes coming on board.

    There was a total of 5.7GW of rooftop Pv installed on 1.7 million households and businesses as at the end of May, capping off a record first five months of installations in any year in Australia’s history.

  14. “An indication of your problem with gay people. There were no real gay sex scenes on Dr Who. Just watch a few episodes of class where they show them having sex in bed. Thats a sex scene.”

    Nah Guytaur, I was referring to Torchwood. Not Dr Who. Have you seen Torchwood season 4? There is “real gay sex scenes”. Watch it first, then get back to me.

  15. Kakaru

    Sorry I don’t remember that. However if like Class I can see why. However no more uncomfortable than sex scenes in movies and tv for heterosexuals are for gay people.

    You don’t see an erect penis.

  16. guytaur @ #130 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:27 am

    Kakaru
    Sorry I don’t remember that. However if like Class I can see why. However no more uncomfortable than sex scenes in movies and tv for heterosexuals are for gay people.
    You don’t see an erect penis.

    William may be able to help us with the obvious question.
    Are them there folks with erect penis’sssss more likely to vote labor, liberal, phon or for the bouncer at the boozer of your choice ❓

  17. COBrienBris: #qldpol preferences: Lab won’t deal with One Nation, LNP won’t deal with ON, ON won’t deal with either. So that’s that. @abcnews

  18. guytaur
    #132 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:32 am

    KJ

    Here is another good one

    TheShovel: Australian Head Of State Forced To Resign After British Citizenship Revealed theshovel.com.au/2017/07/16/aus…
    #auspol pic.twitter.com/hgcgqyvu5V

    https://twitter.com/theshovel/status/886509691974557697

    ………………………………….
    I love it. Thanks.
    LIz was such a gorgeous girl way back then – 1953. Ah, yes, I remember it well.

    ☕ for me and then back to changing oil in lawn mowers.

  19. Typical MSM, riddled with errors. This is just another sensationalist media beat up.

    “The most senior figure in the Australian governmental system has been forced to stand aside after it was found she holds a British passport.”

    Our head of state does NOT have a British passport

    https://www.royal.uk/passports

  20. Gillian B‏ @Gill1104 · 1h1 hour ago

    This is absolutely ridiculous.Lived thru IRA time in UK.Never saw govt attempting 2scare pple like this.Turnbull has zero else 2 spruik.

  21. One of the most widely-endorsed norms in Australian politics is the requirement for bipartisanship in the management of defence and security policy. This norm is assumed to lead to good policy creation, foster political unity, and protect those who implement national policy (particularly the military). The paper argues that evidence for all three of these claims is overstated. In addition, the effects of the norm are often counter-productive and even harmful to the conduct and management of Australian policy. The paper concludes by arguing that the norm of bipartisanship for Australian defence and security policy should be abandoned.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.12349/full

  22. Fess

    Yep. Good memes happening on twitter.

    ++++++++++++++
    My last post for today as I see I have posted a lot today and also need a break ciao

  23. That’s a load of bollocks on preferences in Queensland, unless they end up not handing out full HTV cards (unlikely), due to CPV all parties have to rank all other parties and there’s no way that mutual advantage won’t be considered.

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